| | | 20260123申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | JL | | | | | | J | | | 1月 | | | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | 前1日收盘价 | 1367.0 | | 1131.5 | 1203.0 | 1863.0 | 1688.0 | 1758. 0 | | 前2日收盘价 | 1366. 5 | | 1129.0 | 1203.0 | 1872. 0 | 1683. 5 | 1758. 5 | | 煮跌 | Eil 0. 5 | | 2.5 | 0. 0 | -9.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 | | 煮跌幅 | 0. 04% સ્ત | | 0. 22% | 0. 00% | -0. 48% | 0. 27% | -0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive macro policy to achieve qualitative and effective economic growth while maintaining social stability, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been implementing a moderately loose monetary policy since last year, focusing on supporting stable growth and high-quality development of the real economy and financial markets [2][3]. - In 2024, existing policies will continue to play a role, and new monetary policies will be introduced in 2025 to support economic stability and financial market operations [2]. - The PBOC aims to maintain liquidity and ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price expectations, with room for further interest rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Structural Policy Measures - The PBOC will optimize structural monetary policy tools to enhance support for key strategic areas and weak links, including a recent reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [3]. - The PBOC will also focus on maintaining stable financial markets and managing expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable [3]. Group 3: Financial Support for Key Areas - The PBOC plans to enhance financial services for high-quality economic development by increasing support for consumption, technology innovation, and small and micro enterprises [8][9]. - A special fund of 500 billion yuan will be allocated for consumer services and elderly care, while the quota for technology innovation loans will be increased to 1.2 trillion yuan [8]. - The PBOC will also increase the re-lending and re-discount quotas for small and micro enterprises by 500 billion yuan, focusing on supporting private enterprises [9]. Group 4: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC aims to build a robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework to support high-quality financial development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]. - Key initiatives include enhancing risk monitoring, expanding the scope of macro-prudential management, and improving the legal framework for macro-prudential policies [6][7]. Group 5: International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC will actively engage in global financial governance reforms and international cooperation, promoting a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [13]. - Efforts will include deepening financial sector openness, advancing the internationalization of the RMB, and enhancing cross-border payment systems [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for China in 2026, emphasizing the need for effective qualitative and quantitative growth, and identifies potential investment opportunities and market trends for investors. Monetary Policy - The current domestic interest rates are at historical lows, with room for further reduction. A small rate cut of 0.25-0.5 percentage points is likely in early 2026 to alleviate cost pressures and support long-term liquidity [4][5] - The People's Bank of China may lower policy rates by 0.1-0.3 percentage points to reduce social financing costs and stimulate consumption and investment [5] - Credit growth is expected to moderately recover, with government investment projects and policy financial tools supporting long-term loans in sectors like new energy and infrastructure [5] Market Trends - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to continue a trend of oscillating upward, driven by corporate profit improvements, macro policy easing, and long-term capital inflows [6][7] - The government is expected to implement measures to boost market confidence, including promoting the use of policy tools, guiding institutional investments, and enhancing the registration system for new listings [7] Bond Market - The bond market is projected to maintain a low-interest, high-volatility environment, with 10-year government bond yields expected to range between 1.6% and 1.9% [8] - Credit bond issuance is anticipated to grow steadily, particularly in short-duration high-grade credit bonds, with yields expected between 2.0% and 2.5% [8] Investment Opportunities - Future technology innovation policies will focus on breakthroughs in key areas such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, with significant investment opportunities in sectors like semiconductors, new energy, and quantum technology [9] - The article highlights the potential for investment in strategic emerging industries, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9] Global Market Trends - The global economic landscape is transitioning from high volatility to a new equilibrium, with significant geopolitical tensions and economic challenges in developed economies [9][10] - The article notes that the U.S. stock market may enter a phase of high valuation and weak growth, with potential risks in the AI sector and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [10] Currency and Commodities - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate in a two-way fluctuation, supported by domestic economic conditions and a weakening dollar [10] - Gold prices are projected to experience high volatility with an overall upward trend, while silver is expected to be more volatile due to its industrial applications [11][12] - Oil prices are likely to decline initially before recovering, with an average price forecasted between $60 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations [2]. - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity and align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations, indicating room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates this year [2]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to enhance support for major strategies and key areas, with recent policy adjustments already made to improve these tools [2]. Financial Market Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain stable financial market operations and manage expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable level [3]. - There will be a focus on strengthening supervision across various markets, including bonds, foreign exchange, and gold, while establishing mechanisms to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios [3]. Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC will optimize the monetary policy target system, reducing emphasis on quantitative targets and allowing for more effective interest rate adjustments [4]. - A market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism will be improved to enhance the flow of central bank policy rates to market rates [4]. - The PBOC will enhance the structure of monetary policy tools to better guide financial institutions in optimizing loan allocations [4]. Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC will strengthen monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, establishing a standardized and systematic framework for risk evaluation [6]. - There will be an expansion of macro-prudential management coverage to include new areas such as financial markets and internet finance [6]. - The PBOC aims to improve the legal and governance mechanisms for macro-prudential management, coordinating it with monetary policy and micro-prudential regulation [6]. Support for Key Areas - The PBOC will enhance policy support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises, with specific measures to improve financial services for these sectors [7]. - A dedicated fund of 500 billion RMB will be established to support consumption and elderly care, while 1.2 trillion RMB will be allocated for technological innovation and transformation [7]. - The PBOC will increase the re-lending and re-discount quotas for small and micro enterprises, aiming to improve financing accessibility and affordability [7]. Collaboration and Coordination - The PBOC will strengthen collaboration with various government departments to enhance information sharing and service capabilities [8]. - There will be an emphasis on improving the internal incentive mechanisms of financial institutions and enhancing the use of financial technology [8]. - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be prioritized to amplify the effects of financial support [8]. International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC will actively engage in global financial governance reforms and international cooperation, promoting a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [9]. - Efforts will be made to deepen financial sector openness and support the internationalization of the RMB [9]. - The PBOC will participate in international financial governance and cooperation, focusing on macro policy coordination and the development of international financial regulatory rules [10].

2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1126.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.27%；焦炭主力合 J2605 | | | | | 收于 1685.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.12%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力收于 1134.5，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘上涨 0.27%，焦炭主力合约收于 1694.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.36% | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， | | | | | 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。今年降准降息还有一定 | | | | | 的空间 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-23 一、 宏观数据速览 二、商品投资参考 综合 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced narrow fluctuations with a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4122.58 points, up 0.14%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 14327.05 points, up 0.5% [1][10] - Among the 30 sectors, 21 sectors saw an increase, with oil and petrochemicals, building materials, and telecommunications leading the gains, while automotive, pharmaceuticals, and banking sectors experienced significant declines [1][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 27,164 billion, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, the S&P 500 up 0.55%, and the Nasdaq up 0.91% [2][10] - The U.S. technology index rose by 1.47%, with Facebook increasing by over 5% and Tesla rising by more than 4% [2][10] - Most Chinese concept stocks also saw gains, with Xiaoma Zhixing up nearly 6% and Canadian Solar up over 5% [2][10] Key News Highlights - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring a reasonable recovery in prices [3][12] - Six major banks collectively announced the implementation of the latest fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans [3][14] - The market regulatory authority issued a warning regarding mergers and acquisitions in the public utility sector, marking a significant regulatory action [3][18] - The public fund's fourth-quarter report for 2025 has been disclosed, with a focus on electronic and power equipment sectors [3][20] - Important global economic data has been released, indicating various trends in different markets [3][21]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5814 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.48%。硅铁主力合约 | | | | | SF2603 收于 5610 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.97%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， | | | | | 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。今年降准降息还有一定 | | | | | 的空间。 | | | | | 2、本周，523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 89.3%，环比增 0.9%。原煤日均产量 | | 黑色 | 硅铁、 | 区间震荡 | 199.4 万吨，环比增 1.7 万吨，原煤库存 560.5 万吨，环比增 10.6 万吨 | | | 锰硅 | | 3、广东 20%左右的短流程钢企将在 1 月中下旬左右开始陆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of financial policies in supporting China's economic modernization and outlines the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) strategies for implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Implementation of Monetary Policy - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, focusing on creating a favorable monetary environment for high-quality development [2]. - The PBOC plans to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to ensure ample liquidity and align social financing and money supply growth with economic growth targets [2][3]. - Specific measures include lowering the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the quotas for rural and small enterprise loans by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Financial System Development - The PBOC aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to support high-quality financial development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. - Key initiatives include optimizing the monetary policy target system, enhancing the market-based interest rate formation mechanism, and improving the structure of monetary policy tools to better guide financial institutions [4][5]. - The PBOC will also focus on strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks and expanding the coverage of macro-prudential management to include new financial sectors [5]. Group 3: Support for Real Economy - The PBOC will enhance financial support for key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, which are crucial for high-quality development [6][7]. - Specific actions include establishing a 500 billion yuan re-loan for consumer services and elderly care, increasing re-loan quotas for technology innovation, and improving financing accessibility for small and micro enterprises [6][7]. - Collaboration with various government departments will be emphasized to improve the effectiveness and convenience of financial services [7]. Group 4: Global Financial Governance - The PBOC will actively promote global financial governance reforms and international financial cooperation, advocating for a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [8][10]. - Efforts will include deepening institutional openness in the financial sector, advancing the internationalization of the renminbi, and enhancing cross-border payment systems [9][10]. - The PBOC will also engage in international macro policy coordination and contribute to the reform of the International Monetary Fund to enhance the representation of developing economies [10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [4][14] - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% and retail sales growing by 3.7% [4][14] - The total population in China is expected to decrease by 3.39 million in 2025, with a birth rate of 7.92 million and a death rate of 11.31 million [4][14] Group 2 - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4%, while steel production will increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - Steel exports are projected to reach a record high of 11.9019 million tons in 2025, marking a 7.5% increase year-on-year [4][14] - The average profit margin for 247 steel mills is reported at 40.69%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [5][15] Group 3 - The total inventory of five major steel products is 12.5708 million tons, with an increase of 10.07% week-on-week [5][15] - Rebar production has increased by 9.25 million tons to 199.55 million tons, while hot-rolled steel production has slightly decreased to 6.206 million tons [5][15] - The market for rebar is experiencing weak demand despite increased supply, leading to a continued narrow fluctuation in steel prices [5][15][16] Group 4 - The hot-rolled steel production has decreased slightly due to maintenance at one steel plant in North China and slow recovery at another in East China, with total inventory decreasing at a historically high rate for the lunar new year period [6][16] - Traders are adopting a cautious approach with low inventory and quick turnover strategies, anticipating continued weak supply and demand [6][16] - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3100-3200 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range between 3250-3350 yuan/ton [7][17]