Core Insights - The report emphasizes a "slow bull" market expectation, suggesting a shift from a previous "crazy bull" sentiment to a more stable outlook, maintaining confidence in mid-cap blue chips and cyclical sectors [2][3] - The cyclical mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the chemical and non-ferrous sectors, are highlighted as key investment opportunities, with a focus on manufacturing and technology growth [3] - The chemical industry is undergoing a transformation, moving from a focus on market share to profitability, influenced by internal policy adjustments and external anti-dumping measures [3] Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in cyclical and manufacturing sectors, with an emphasis on non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as smart vehicles and robotics [3] - Recommended ETFs include the Hang Seng ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF, and various sector-specific ETFs such as the Chemical ETF and Non-ferrous ETF [3] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is reaching the limits of market share expansion due to policy constraints and increased scrutiny on low-quality growth, signaling a need for companies to adjust their strategies [3] - Key areas of focus within the chemical sector include MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle chips, with a preference for companies demonstrating strong leadership advantages [3] - The zinc market is expected to see price increases due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, driven by infrastructure needs in developing regions and a tightening supply of zinc ore [4][3]

1月21日，金银价格再创历史新高，COMEX黄金、现货黄金先后突破每盎司4800美元，白银价格首次 升穿每盎司95美元。 华福证券认为，伴随着经济基本面的向上修复，有色金属的强周期性体现，涨幅显著。在"反内卷"和扩 内需驱动下，再通胀叙事强化，当前市场环境下，有色金属行情仍有望继续演绎。弱美元提供基础环 境，美国化债是核心逻辑，矿山资本开支历史性不足是现实约束，关键矿产权力是"隐形"推手。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）联接基金经理王宁远指出，有色矿业正处于周期性大宗商品向国际秩序重 塑下战略资产的重构，逻辑具有长期性，估值应具有前瞻性，行情有望延续，结构性机会凸显。交易层 面需避免追高，关注行业长期价值。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）跟踪有色金属矿业指数聚焦资源品上游，黄金、铜、铝等关键金属权重占 比近6成。截至1月16日，有色矿业ETF招商（159690）跟踪的中证有色金属矿业指数近一年涨幅达 124.26%，领跑主流有色指数。 | | 近１年涨跌幅 | 近１年最大回撤 | | --- | --- | --- | | 有色矿业 | 124.26% | -13.76% | | 工业有色 | 118 ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.52%报 111.490 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.180 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.875 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.05%报 102.444 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 20 日以 ...

Group 1 - The gold and silver markets experienced a strong rally, with domestic spot gold reaching a historical high of 1055.47 yuan per gram, up 1.03% on January 20, and spot silver rising to 21.1 yuan per gram, up 0.88% on the same day [1][3] - Year-to-date, spot gold has increased by 84.01 yuan per gram, while spot silver has risen by 4.11 yuan per gram [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surged, with multiple brands pricing gold jewelry above 1450 yuan per gram, indicating a significant market response to rising gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - The substantial increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariffs on European countries, and rising market risk aversion, making gold and silver attractive as safe-haven assets [3] - The Federal Reserve's ongoing rate-cutting cycle and expectations for multiple rate cuts this year have lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, further supporting its price [3] - The demand for silver is particularly strong, driven by its use in photovoltaic applications, electric vehicles, 5G infrastructure, and AI data centers, while supply responses remain slow [6] Group 3 - Retail demand for gold has increased by approximately 20% in recent weeks, with consumers rushing to purchase gold jewelry amid rising prices [9] - Some consumers are adjusting their purchasing plans due to price increases, opting for lighter-weight items or those with better cost-performance ratios [9] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei jewelry market, businesses are facing rising raw material costs, prompting them to adjust their strategies by focusing on popular classic styles and increasing the production of silver jewelry to maintain profit margins [10] Group 4 - Multiple institutions express a long-term bullish outlook on gold and silver prices, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's policies as supportive factors [10] - Short-term risks include potential volatility in silver prices due to its dual financial and industrial roles, while gold is expected to remain relatively stable despite being at historical highs [11]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices surged, breaking through $4700, reaching a new historical high of $4698.257 per ounce, with an increase of 0.62% [1] - Year-to-date, spot gold has risen over 8% [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have continued to rise, with multiple brands quoting prices above 1450 RMB per gram; for instance, Chow Sang Sang quoted 1454 RMB per gram, an increase of 25 RMB over two days [3] - The World Gold Council reported that in 2025, gold prices set new records 53 times, with global gold ETF inflows reaching $89 billion [4] Group 3 - Analysts from Huatai Securities identified three main reasons for the rise in precious metals: geopolitical tensions increasing safe-haven demand, rising industrial demand for silver due to AI development, and the ongoing easing cycle of the Federal Reserve [5] - Dongwu Futures noted that recent U.S. tariffs on European countries have heightened safe-haven sentiment, benefiting precious metals [5] - Zhongcai Futures indicated that gold and silver still have upward potential due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence [5][6] Group 4 - In the medium to long term, the continuation of the Federal Reserve's easing process and rising fiscal deficits are expected to support gold prices, while silver may face high tariffs, benefiting its price [6] - The uncertain global trade and inflation environment, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases and a long-term supply-demand gap for silver, suggest a bullish outlook for precious metals [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond futures are under pressure, the stock index is expected to rise, and the precious metals market will see increased volatility. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - environment [6][8][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.22 billion yuan. The GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year. The social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate data showed mixed trends. It's expected that treasury bond futures are under pressure, and investors should be cautious [5][6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The housing price in 70 large and medium - sized cities in December 2025 declined. Although the domestic economic growth is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment is rising. It's expected that the stock index will gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [8] 3.2 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has increased speculative sentiment. It's expected that the market will be more volatile, and investors should exit long positions and wait and see [10][11] 3.3 Base Metals 3.3.1 Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures were weakly volatile. In the medium term, the price of steel products is determined by industrial supply - demand. The demand for rebar is declining, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It's expected that the price will continue to be weakly volatile, and investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [13] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. The demand for iron ore is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the port inventory is at a five - year high. The futures are under pressure at high levels and may correct in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [15][16] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke may increase, but the iron - making demand is decreasing. The futures' rebound is blocked. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels [18] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five years, and the over - supply situation has slightly eased. The price may rebound after a decline, and investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20][21] 3.4 Energy 3.4.1 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The US is accelerating the expansion of Chevron's oil production in Venezuela, which is negative for oil prices, but the CFTC data shows that US funds are bullish on crude oil. The rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [22][23] 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward. The inventory of heavy fuel oil in Fujairah increased, and the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil decreased. The increase in Asian fuel oil supply is negative for prices, but the stable crude oil price provides support. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [25] 3.4.3 Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou was partially loose, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. The cold weather in the north and early employee return in the south have affected the construction, transportation, and production of small and medium - sized enterprises. However, the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing is growing. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but the PDH is still in deep loss. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [27][28] 3.5 Rubber 3.5.1 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The market rose last week, supported by the rising butadiene price and high device operation rate, but limited by weak downstream demand. It's expected to fluctuate strongly, and the focus should be on butadiene price, downstream demand recovery, and device maintenance in January [30] 3.5.2 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The domestic rubber - tapping season is ending, the raw material price is rising, the demand from tire enterprises is increasing, but the inventory is accumulating. It's expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [32] 3.6 Chemicals 3.6.1 PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. It's in the traditional off - season, but the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side fluctuation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. It's expected to fluctuate strongly [34] 3.6.2 Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures fell. In the short term, the price will be strongly volatile, driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is at a high level, the industrial demand for compound fertilizer is increasing, and the agricultural demand is limited. The inventory is lower than expected. It's expected to be strongly volatile [35] 3.6.3 PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, the PX operation rate is increasing, but the falling crude oil price is a drag. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate within the range [36] 3.6.4 PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from polyester enterprises has decreased due to profit compression, and the inventory is low. It's expected to fluctuate in the short term and may accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil prices [37] 3.6.5 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is under pressure, and it's in the seasonal inventory - accumulation period. The price may be under pressure, and investors should wait and see [39] 3.6.6 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the terminal factories are digesting raw material inventory, and the inventory is at a low level, providing support. It's expected to follow the raw material price and fluctuate. Investors should control risks [40] 3.6.7 Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is expected to decrease during the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate has increased. It's expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate carefully and pay attention to device maintenance [41] 3.6.8 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, the downstream demand is general, and it's in the off - season. The downward space is limited, and it's advisable to operate within the range in the short term [42] 3.6.9 Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, the inventory of traders is increasing, and the demand from processing plants is weak. Affected by the cold wave, the sales may be affected. It's expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43] 3.6.10 Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is stable, and the cost has decreased. The profit has improved, but the future price is still not optimistic [44] 3.7 Pulp and Minerals 3.7.1 Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The import pulp market is weak, the price is differentiated, and the inventory is at a relatively high level and still accumulating. The spot trading is light, and the price is under pressure [45] 3.7.2 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The market trading sentiment has cooled down. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [46] 3.7.3 Copper - The previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US inflation is high, the dollar index is rising, which suppresses the base metals. The copper supply is tight, but the high price has suppressed the demand, and the inventory is increasing. The price is at a high level, and the risk is greater than the opportunity [48] 3.7.4 Aluminum - The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The supply of bauxite is abundant, the alumina market is in oversupply, the electrolytic - aluminum production increase is limited, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high price. The alumina can be short - sold at high levels before the Spring Festival, and the aluminum price may correct in the short term [50][51] 3.7.5 Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The raw - material supply is tight, the consumption is seasonally weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Driven by the strong non - ferrous metals market, investors should be cautious about chasing up [53] 3.7.6 Lead - The previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead and the cost of recycled lead support the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [55] 3.7.7 Tin - The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand is supported by emerging fields, and the inventory is decreasing. It's expected to fluctuate strongly, and investors should control risks [57] 3.7.8 Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The global geopolitical situation is tense, and the nickel production quota in Indonesia has decreased. The nickel - ore price is stable, but the stainless - steel market is weak, and the refined - nickel inventory is at a relatively high level. The overall supply of primary nickel is in excess [58] 3.8 Agricultural Products 3.8.1 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. Brazilian soybeans are entering the harvest season, the soybean - pressing volume of oil mills has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing, and the demand for soybean oil has improved. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil when the price rises [59][60] 3.8.2 Palm Oil - Malaysian palm - oil futures were almost stable. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 bio - fuel policy is negative, but the upcoming festival demand provides support. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [61][62] 3.8.3 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed. The inventory of rapeseed meal is accumulating, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is decreasing. Investors can consider holding the position of expanding the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [64][65] 3.8.4 Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell. The USDA supply - demand report is positive, and the domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The future planting area in Xinjiang will be reduced, and the demand is resilient. The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but the domestic valuation is relatively high in the short term. Investors can buy on dips [66][67] 3.8.5 Sugar - The previous trading day, sugar futures fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient during the peak - pressing season. The import is also expected to be high in January. The upward space is limited after the previous rebound, and it's advisable to take a short - side operation in the long term [69][70] 3.8.6 Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fell sharply. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the long term, and investors can buy on dips [72][74] 3.8.7 Hogs - The previous trading day, hog futures fell. The northern market is stable, and the southern market is rising slightly. The supply in the first quarter is still under pressure, and investors should wait and see [76] 3.8.8 Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The cost of egg production has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, but the supply is expected to decrease slightly. The profit is improving, and investors can consider a bull - spread strategy [77][78] 3.8.9 Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The northern - port inventory is low, the sales progress in the northeast is fast, and the spot price is strong. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises has changed. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch market may follow the corn market. Investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [79][80] 3.8.10 Logs - The previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply is abundant, the inventory has different trends, and the delivery is affected by downstream pre - holiday stocking. The supply - demand pattern varies between the north and the south. The price is expected to be stable, and the futures may fluctuate at the bottom [83][84]

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged, reaching historical highs, with prices surpassing $90 per ounce this week, and the gold-silver ratio dropping to 50.57, the lowest in 13 years [1][2] - Since early 2025, gold and silver have increased by 75% and 190% respectively, with silver's growth being 2.5 times that of gold [2][5] - The recent performance indicates that silver has outshone gold, breaking the traditional correlation with PMI recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio has sharply declined from a peak of 105 in 2025 to around 50, indicating that silver is currently at its highest relative value compared to gold in 13 years [7][39] - Historical patterns suggest that silver's price surges often signal the peak of a precious metals bull market, but this time the correlation with PMI recovery has been disrupted [15][39] - Analysts note that the relationship between the gold-silver ratio and U.S. PMI is changing due to the declining influence of U.S. manufacturing and the rise of emerging markets [17] Group 3 - Silver's strategic resource attributes are being reinforced, with increasing applications in green energy and digital transformation, making it a critical metal for future industries [18][34] - The global silver inventory has been significantly impacted by tariff expectations, leading to a "silver rush" and a dramatic shift in regional inventories [20][21] - The current market dynamics suggest that silver's commodity attributes are becoming more pronounced, with short-term price movements driven by supply and demand rather than financial attributes [25][26] Group 4 - Industrial demand for silver, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, is expected to continue growing, with a projected increase in silver usage for solar panels [33][36] - The global silver supply has remained rigid, with annual production levels stabilizing between 30,000 to 33,000 tons, while demand has surged due to industrial applications [26][28] - The current market conditions reflect a potential for silver prices to remain elevated, with forecasts suggesting a trading range of $80 to $100 per ounce [40][41]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2026 年 1 月 20 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.70% on January 19 [2] - Sectors such as precious metals, power grid equipment, and flexible direct current transmission saw significant gains [2] - The National Energy Administration announced that by 2025, China's total electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5% [2] Group 2 - Oriental Securities highlighted the zinc sector as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with supply and demand improving and prices expected to rise [3] - The market has been pessimistic about lead and zinc due to domestic infrastructure and real estate concerns, but there is optimism regarding the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America driving demand [3] - Huafu Securities noted that key technologies for small modular reactors (SMR) are being developed by domestic companies, with progress on energy solutions tailored for data centers [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure, so it's advisable to stay cautious [6]. - The central electricity consumption in China reached 10.4 trillion kWh in 2025, and the stock index is expected to have its volatility center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex, and there is a significant speculative sentiment in precious metals. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to weakly fluctuate, and investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [16]. - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and short - term corrections may occur. Investors can go long on dips [18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke futures rebounded but faced resistance. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [21]. - After 2025 Q4, the ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure. One can consider long positions in the low - level range [24]. - The crude oil is expected to continue its rebound, and one can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - The increase in Asian fuel oil supply is bearish, but the stable cost of crude oil provides support. One can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [27]. - The new demand in high - end manufacturing supports the modified PP industry. The market is waiting for PDH maintenance, and one can focus on long opportunities in polyolefin [29]. - The synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [33]. - The natural rubber is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [35]. - The PVC is expected to fluctuate strongly due to policy expectations and potential supply - demand improvement [36]. - The urea price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. One can participate in the range and beware of external market risks [40]. - The PTA is expected to oscillate. Operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - For ethylene glycol, due to supply increase and inventory pressure, it's advisable to observe cautiously [44]. - The short - fiber may fluctuate with raw material prices. Control risks and pay attention to cost and downstream stocking [46]. - The bottle - chip may follow the cost to fluctuate. Participate cautiously and pay attention to maintenance implementation [47]. - The soda ash should be traded within the range in the short term, paying attention to policy - driven market changes [49]. - The glass is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [50]. - The outlook for caustic soda is not optimistic under the current supply - demand situation [52]. - The pulp market is under pressure from inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak [53]. - The lithium carbonate price may have increased short - term volatility, but there is strong support below [55]. - The copper price is at a high level and may adjust [57]. - The aluminum price is at a high level and may adjust [60]. - Be cautious when chasing the rise of zinc [62]. - The lead price will maintain range - bound fluctuations [65]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but control risks [66]. - The nickel is in an oversupply situation, and follow - up policies in Indonesia need attention [68]. - For soybean meal, one can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, long positions can consider exiting on rallies [70]. - One can consider long opportunities in palm oil after corrections [73]. - One can consider reducing positions in the spread between soybean - rapeseed meal and oil [75]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term. Buy on dips after corrections [77]. - The upward space for sugar is limited in the medium - and long - term, and the upward pressure is increasing [81]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [86]. - For live pigs, it's advisable to wait and see for changes in market capital structure [87]. - For eggs, a positive spread strategy can be considered [88]. - The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of corn supply pressure [90]. - The log price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Pulp - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 5362 yuan/ton, down 1.94%. The import pulp market sentiment turned weak, prices showed a divergent trend, and the inventory was at a relatively high level, continuing the cumulative trend. The spot trading was light [53]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day's main contract fell 8.99% to 146,200 yuan/ton. The market trading sentiment cooled down. The supply and demand were both strong, and the inventory was gradually decreasing. The price had strong support below, but short - term volatility might increase [54][55]. Copper - The previous trading day's Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,280 yuan/ton, down 1.56%. The supply was extremely tight, but high prices inhibited demand, and the inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [56][57]. Aluminum - The previous trading day's Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,945 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The alumina supply was in significant excess, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [58][59]. Zinc - The previous trading day's Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,405 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The raw material supply was tight, and the consumption was seasonally weak. Be cautious when chasing the rise [61][62]. Lead - The previous trading day's Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The supply was restricted, and the demand was differentiated. The price maintained range - bound fluctuations [63][64]. Tin - The previous trading day's Shanghai tin main contract fell 8.42% to 379,400 yuan/ton. The supply was tight, and the demand had certain resilience. The price was expected to fluctuate strongly [66]. Nickel - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.1% to 139,890 yuan/ton. The cost was expected to rise, but the consumption was not optimistic, and it was in an oversupply situation [67][68]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.76% to 2727 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.63% to 8016 yuan/ton. The soybean supply was relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal was growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improved slightly [69][70]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose for two consecutive weeks. The export increased, and the domestic inventory was at a medium level in the past 7 years. One can consider long opportunities after corrections [71][72]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed meal and oil inventories are decreasing. One can consider reducing spread positions [74][75]. Cotton - The previous trading day's domestic cotton futures fluctuated down. The USDA report was favorable, and the domestic supply was expected to be tight in the future, with demand showing resilience. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [76][77]. Sugar - The previous trading day's Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. India had a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faced double - supply pressure. The upward space was limited in the medium - and long - term [79][81]. Apple - The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fell more than 2%. The inventory was at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality declined. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [83][85]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.42% to 11,980 yuan/ton. The supply in the first quarter might face great pressure, and it's advisable to wait and see [87]. Eggs - The previous trading day's main contract rose 0.39% to 3072 yuan/500kg. The supply in January was expected to be at a high level, and a positive spread strategy could be considered [88]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.13% to 2281 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.04% to 2555 yuan/ton. The corn supply pressure needed to be further released, and the starch might follow the corn market [89][90]. Logs - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The supply was abundant, and the market was stable. The price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91].