2025 年 7 月 24 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | | ת > | | 螺纹、热卷: | | 6 | | 铁矿石: | | 6 | | 焦煤 焦炭 : . | | 7 | | 铁合金: | | 7 | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | C | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | .. | | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | .. 11 | | | PTA: 11 | | | | 乙二醇: 12 | | | | 短纤: | . | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: | .. | ...

Core Viewpoint - The visit of EU leaders to China comes amid heightened tensions with the US over tariff policies, reflecting the EU's urgent need to reassess its trade relationships with both the US and China [1][3][7] Group 1: EU's Position and Concerns - The EU is caught in a complex situation, needing to navigate pressures from the US while also considering its significant trade relationship with China [1][3] - EU officials express concerns that if the market is fully opened to China, up to 50% of market share could be captured by Chinese companies, necessitating protective measures [3][4] - The EU's internal production chains, established for globalization, may face marginalization if de-globalization trends intensify [3][4] Group 2: Objectives of the Visit - The primary goals of the EU leaders' visit to China include securing more orders for EU companies and negotiating unequal tariff arrangements, where China would implement zero tariffs on EU products while maintaining some tariffs on Chinese goods [4][6] - The EU also aims to pressure China to reduce its cooperation with Russia, using sanctions as leverage [4][6] Group 3: Challenges in Negotiations - There is a fundamental conflict between the EU's requests and China's principles, particularly regarding tariff arrangements and cooperation with Russia [6][9] - The timeline for negotiations is tight, with the US imposing an August 1 deadline for new tariff agreements, leaving little room for complex discussions [6][9] - The EU's predicament highlights the broader international dynamics, where the US seeks to reshape trade rules to its advantage, often at the expense of its allies [6][9] Group 4: Implications for Global Trade - The shifting global trade landscape indicates that the EU's ability to balance relations between the US and China is diminishing, necessitating a reevaluation of its ties with China [7][9] - The outcome of the EU's negotiations with China will not only impact its economic future but also have significant repercussions for the global trade framework [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For the stock index market, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - For the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For other futures markets, different views and strategies are proposed according to the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each variety. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured [5]. - The growth rate of real estate loans has rebounded. At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [5]. - It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. 3.2 Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 1.12%, 0.90%, 1.15%, and 0.66% respectively [8][9]. - Central enterprises are required to integrate into urban development, promote new - quality productivity, and improve the living environment [9]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver increased by 0.40% and 1.32% respectively [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, steel product futures rose sharply. Although there is an expectation of supply contraction, the downward trend of demand and over - capacity still suppress prices. It is advisable to wait for the right opportunity to go short [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose sharply. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it may continue to be strong in the short term. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of coking coal and coke reached the daily limit. Although there is an expectation of supply contraction, over - capacity may lead to an increase in supply. It is advisable to wait for the right opportunity to go short in the medium term [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron increased by 1.76% and 3.74% respectively. The short - term demand has peaked, and supply may exceed demand. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - level support range [19][20]. - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and moved low. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and various factors restricted oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Asian market may be in a state of supply surplus, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber increased by 1.72%. The supply - demand is short - term loose, and it is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber increased. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, and it is advisable to pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities [28][29][30]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC increased by 3.69%. The supply exceeds demand, but the price may be in a relatively strong oscillation [31][34]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea increased by 0.55%. The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it is advisable to take a long - position view in the medium term [35][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX increased by 0.53%. The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is advisable to participate cautiously [38]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA increased by 0.38%. The short - term supply increases and demand weakens, but there is support at the bottom. It is advisable to participate in the range and pay attention to the rebound of processing fees [39][40][41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol increased by 0.98%. The supply pressure is relieved, and it is advisable to participate in the range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [42]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber increased by 0.75%. The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, and it is advisable to follow the cost and pay attention to cost changes and production reduction [43][44][45]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips increased by 0.33%. The raw material price fluctuates, and it is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [46]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash increased by 8.01%. The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue highs or lows [47][48]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass increased by 9.08%. Affected by market sentiment, the price has risen, and it is advisable to pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda increased by 3.95%. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is supported by the main downstream. It is expected to oscillate narrowly [50][51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp increased by 0.75%. The supply tends to expand, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [52][53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 2.71%. Although there are concerns about supply, the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to observe more and operate less [54]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper opened high and oscillated. Although the US tariff has an impact, the price may rise. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][56][57]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated and increased. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate strongly [58]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel increased. The first - grade nickel is in a state of surplus, and it is expected to oscillate [59][60]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal increased, and soybean oil decreased. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal and call options for soybean oil [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The export of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [63][64][65]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed has fallen. The inventory of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal has changed, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [66][67]. - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand of cotton is expected to be loose, and the domestic industry is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [69][70][71]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar markets have different situations. The short - term basis has been repaired, and it is advisable to wait and see [72][73][74]. - **Apples**: The expected reduction in apple production has been falsified, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices [75][76][77]. - **Pigs**: The price of live pigs has fallen slightly. It is in the off - season of consumption, and it is advisable to hold previous short positions [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs may increase in July, and it is advisable to consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [80][81][82]. - **Corn and Starch**: The price of corn has increased slightly, and the supply - demand of corn tends to be balanced. The production and demand of corn starch are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [83][84][85]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs decreased by 0.48%. The supply has increased, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [86][87][89].

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.3% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.9% in the previous year, marking the lowest level in 17 years excluding recession years [1][11] - Factors contributing to this slowdown include rising trade policy uncertainties due to de-globalization, tightening financial conditions in some countries, and a balanced labor market in the US and Europe leading to a decrease in wage growth [1][11] Inflation Trends - Major economies are experiencing relatively high and sticky inflation rates, with June core CPI year-on-year rates at 2.9% for the US, 2.3% for the Eurozone, and 3.4% for Japan [2][15] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates four times this year, while the Federal Reserve remains in a pause phase regarding rate cuts [2][16] Currency Market Dynamics - The global currency market is characterized by high risk-free interest rates and a divergence between the US dollar and non-US currencies, with the dollar index declining by 9.7% year-to-date as of July 21 [3][18] - Non-US currencies have generally appreciated, with notable increases of 12.9% for the Euro and 6.6% for the Japanese Yen [3][18] Asset Performance - The performance of global assets reflects expectations of preventive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and fiscal expansion in Europe, with the Nasdaq and DAX indices rising by 8.6% and 22.1% respectively [3][20] - Gold prices have increased by 29.2% due to high deficit rates in Western economies and geopolitical factors [3][20] Economic Growth Projections - For the second half of 2025, the US GDP is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.5%, with quarterly growth rates of 2.1%, 0.7%, and 1.2% [4][24] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in the second half, while Japan's GDP growth is projected to decline to 0.5% [4][27] Inflation Forecasts - Inflation rates are expected to diverge among major economies, with US core CPI projected to rise from 2.9% to 3.3% by the fourth quarter, while Eurozone inflation is expected to decrease to around 1.9% [5][29] - Japan's inflation is likely to remain above 2%, driven by labor shortages and rising wages [5][30] Monetary Policy Challenges - Central banks face the dual challenge of balancing inflation and growth, with the Federal Reserve expected to initiate rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025 [6][32] - The ECB is anticipated to lower rates further, while the Bank of Japan may also consider a rate hike depending on economic conditions [6][34] Impact of US Legislation - The "Beautiful America Act" is projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034, while tariffs are expected to generate about $2.8 trillion in revenue [7][35] - The act is estimated to boost US GDP by an average of 0.5% over the next decade, with potential for higher growth if tax reforms are successful [7][35] Dollar Index Trends - The dollar is expected to weaken in the medium term due to tariff impacts and changing global supply chains, with potential for short-term rebounds based on economic data or geopolitical events [8][40] - A weaker dollar could benefit US companies with significant overseas revenue, as approximately 41% of S&P 500 companies' income comes from international markets [8][44] Corporate Earnings Outlook - The weakening dollar is likely to enhance the profitability of US companies with substantial foreign earnings, contributing approximately 0.4-0.5 percentage points to overall EPS for each percentage point of dollar depreciation [8][44] - The overall earnings growth for US companies is expected to outpace economic growth in the second half of 2025, driven by favorable currency effects and supportive fiscal policies [8][46]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, due to the stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding the stock index market, although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising, and going long on stock index futures is considered [9][10]. - In the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. - For the steel market, the short - term strength of steel futures may continue, but the long - term demand and over - capacity issues remain, and investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [13]. - In the iron ore market, the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening, but the short - term strength may continue, and investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For the coal and coke market, the short - term strength may continue, and investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities [16]. - In the iron alloy market, the short - term supply may be in excess, and investors can consider long - buying opportunities in the low - level support range if the spot losses continue to expand [18][19]. - For the energy market, the oil price is under pressure, and short - selling opportunities for the crude oil and fuel oil main contracts are worth paying attention to [20][23][25]. - In the rubber market, synthetic rubber can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound, while natural rubber is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and medium - term long - buying opportunities can be focused on [26][27][30]. - For the chemical product market, PVC, PTA, and other products are expected to be in a short - term oscillation, and investors need to pay attention to cost changes and control risks [31][39][40]. - In the agricultural product market, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal can consider long - buying opportunities after adjustment, while cotton is recommended to be observed [58][64][66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The 7 - month LPR remained stable. The "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented on September 15, 2025 [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The housing policy in Chengdu was relaxed, and the electricity consumption data in June was released [8][9]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising, and going long on stock index futures is considered [9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures showed different trends. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue due to factors such as the complex global trade and financial environment and the possible Fed rate cut, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. Steel (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose significantly. The policy triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress the price. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. Policy expectations boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. Coal and Coke (Coking Coal, Coke) - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rise. Policy expectations led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply may increase. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities [16]. Iron Alloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore is expected to be disturbed, and the supply of iron alloys is in excess in the short term. If the spot losses continue to expand, long - buying opportunities in the low - level support range can be considered [18][19]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the US supported the oil price, but factors such as the reduction of net long positions by fund managers and EU sanctions on Russia restricted the oil price. Short - selling opportunities for the main contract are worth paying attention to [20][21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil opened higher and oscillated, blocked by the 60 - day moving average. The influx of fuel oil from the Middle East and Russia and trade frictions are negative for the price. Short - selling opportunities for the main contract are worth paying attention to [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The raw material price decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. It is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is affected by rainfall, and the demand of tire enterprises is mixed. Medium - term long - buying opportunities can be focused on [29][30]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand pattern is still in excess, but the downward space is limited. It is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [31][34]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. The short - term market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for policy and demand implementation. It is considered to be bullish in the medium term [35][37]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand balance is in a tight pattern, and the cost support is insufficient. It is in a short - term oscillation adjustment, and investors need to be cautious and pay attention to cost changes [38]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The supply increased, the demand weakened, and the cost support was slightly insufficient. It is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory and pressured operation, but the lower support is strong. Interval participation is considered, and attention should be paid to the low - level rebound of processing fees [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The supply pressure is relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and the lower support is strong. Interval participation is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [41]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it may follow the cost to oscillate. Caution is advised when looking at the repair space of processing differentials, and attention should be paid to cost changes and device production cuts [42]. Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, bottle - chip rose. The device maintenance increased, the inventory decreased, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [43]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash rose. The short - term market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the price may rise slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern is in excess, and rational treatment is recommended [44][45]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass rose. Affected by the macro - sentiment and some enterprises' price increases, the overall disk rose. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [46]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda rose. The supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, and the demand has limited positive support. It is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation and is easily affected by macro - sentiment [47][48]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp rose. The supply has an expansion tendency, the downstream demand is weak, and the market is in a weak operation [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to observe more and take less action and control risks [51]. Copper - The previous trading day, copper rose significantly. The spot supply is tight, and the price is expected to continue to rise. Going long on the main contract is considered [52][53][54]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin rose. The ore supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [55]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel rose. The fundamental supply is in excess, and it is expected to oscillate [56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the cost support is strong. After the adjustment of soybean meal, long - buying opportunities in the support range can be considered, and call option opportunities in the support range after the decline of soybean oil can be considered [57][58]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, palm oil fell. The export data is mediocre, and the inventory is high. Considering the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [59][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed - related products showed certain trends. The domestic inventory situation is different, and the opportunity to go long on rapeseed - related products is considered [62][63]. Cotton - The previous trading day, cotton showed a decline. The global supply - demand is in a loose expectation, and the short - term is following the overall commodity rebound. The July supply - demand report is negative. It is recommended to observe [64][65][66]. Sugar - The previous trading day, sugar oscillated. The domestic inventory is low, the import volume is high, and the short - term valuation is neutral after basis repair. It is recommended to observe [67][68]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The expected production reduction is disproven, and there is a slight increase in production. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [70][71]. Live Pigs - No new and distinct content different from palm oil is provided. The same palm oil - related information is repeated, so no new summary is made here. Eggs - Similar to rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the opportunity to go long on rapeseed - related products is considered [74][75]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is warming up. It is recommended to observe, while corn starch follows the corn market [76][77]. Logs - The previous trading day, logs rose. The supply increased, the inventory slightly increased, and the price was adjusted. It is expected to be in an oscillation adjustment before the first delivery, and the main 09 and far - month contracts are affected by positive sentiment [78][80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall view is that different futures products have different market trends and investment suggestions. For some products like government bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - style market, and caution is advised; for stock index futures, long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered; for precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [5][8][10]. Summary by Product Government Bonds - Last trading day, most government bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts declined, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 187.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the government bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - style market, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan. From January to June 2025, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising, and going long on stock index futures is considered [7][8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver main contracts rose. The US consumer confidence index showed an upward trend. The complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the gold - buying behavior of central banks support the precious metals market. If the US economic growth slows down, the Fed may cut interest rates, providing new upward momentum for gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [10]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The important meeting at the beginning of the month triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity still suppress the prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space may be limited. Technically, the short - term may remain strong. Investors can wait for the right opportunity to short after the rebound [12]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. Policy expectations boosted the black - series commodities. The iron water daily output declined, the supply increased after April, and the port inventory is close to last year's level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the valuation is relatively high. Technically, the short - term may remain strong. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profit in time [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rise. The important meeting at the beginning of the month triggered expectations of supply contraction. The coal mine operating rate in the main production areas is rising, and the over - capacity may lead to an increase in supply. The steel mill's iron water output is falling, and the procurement intention is weak. The cost support of coke is effective. Technically, the short - term may remain strong. Investors can wait for the right opportunity to short in the medium - term [16]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The manganese ore supply from Gabon decreased, and the Australian ore supply increased. The port manganese ore inventory rose slightly. The iron alloy output increased at a low level, and the demand is weak, with high inventory. In the off - season, the short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is in excess, with pressure on prices. If the spot loss continues to expand, low - level out - of - the - money call options can be considered [18]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly without fundamental support. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net long positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased, and the EU approved a new round of sanctions against Russia. The decline in US oil rigs provides some support for oil prices, but the reduction in net long positions and trade frictions restrict the upward movement. Shorting opportunities for the main crude oil contract can be considered [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil spot spread reached a nearly three - year low, with sufficient supply and weak demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil market may have some downward space in the short - term, with expected supply increase and sufficient inventory. Shorting opportunities for the main fuel oil contract can be considered [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The raw material price declined, and the processing profit became positive. The supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a strong - side oscillation next week. The supply may increase due to less rainfall in the production areas, and the cost support weakens. The demand from tire enterprises is mixed, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Mid - term long - buying opportunities can be considered [29]. PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract declined slightly. The supply - demand imbalance continues, but the downward space is limited. The industry's promotion of stable growth in the petrochemical industry may drive the market. The supply decreased last week, the demand from downstream enterprises is weak, and the export is affected by India's rainy season and tariffs. The cost and profit are mainly affected by raw materials, and the profit has improved. The market is expected to oscillate strongly [31]. Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract rose slightly. The short - term domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly. The supply is expected to remain high, the agricultural demand is limited, and the industrial demand increases slowly. The inventory is higher than expected. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term [34]. PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose. The PX load declined, and some refineries had maintenance or load - reduction. The import volume increased in May 2025. The rise in European diesel prices and the rebound of oil prices support the market, but the supply - demand balance is tight in the short - term, and the cost support may be insufficient. Short - term oscillation adjustment is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [36]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose. The supply load increased, and the demand from the polyester industry decreased. The profit is concentrated upstream, and the processing fee is under pressure but has rebounded recently. There may be more unexpected maintenance in the future, with strong support below. Interval participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The overall operating load increased, and some plants had maintenance. The inventory in the East China main port decreased. The demand from the polyester industry declined. The short - term supply pressure has been relieved, with support below. Cautious attitude towards the downside space is recommended, and interval participation is mainly suggested, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. Short - fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2509 main contract rose. The supply load decreased, the demand from the downstream is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost of PTA and ethylene glycol oscillates, with insufficient short - term drivers. Some plants have production cut, and the processing fee is gradually repairing. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and cautious attitude towards the repair space of the processing difference is recommended [41]. Bottle - chip - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 main contract rose. Recently, more bottle - chip plants had maintenance, and the load declined. The downstream soft - drink consumption is recovering, and the export is growing. The raw material price oscillates, and the inventory is reducing, with support for the market. It is expected to oscillate following the cost [42]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract closed flat. Some plants' loads changed. The production was stable at a high level, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand is stable, with flexible transactions. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the long - term, the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve, and the downstream glass industry has limited support. Rational attitude is recommended, and excessive chasing or shorting is not advisable [43]. Glass - Last trading day, the glass 2509 main contract declined slightly. The number of in - production lines remained low. The market sentiment in different regions is different, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The overall market is driven by macro - sentiment and some enterprises' price increases, with some replenishment by the middle and lower reaches. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [45]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract declined slightly. The production of large - scale caustic soda enterprises increased last week, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The non - aluminum downstream is cautious in purchasing, and the supply - demand difference is positive. The inventory increased, and the capacity utilization ratio in different regions changed. The price of alumina may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The overall market is expected to oscillate narrowly [46]. Pulp - Last trading day, the pulp 2509 main contract rose. The supply is expected to expand, and a new pulp factory will be put into operation in 2026. The downstream product output declined, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The supply pressure increases due to the expected arrival of Brazilian shipments. The port inventory is high, and the market confidence is suppressed. The price of raw pulp oscillates, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The concerns about the supply side due to mining license issues have pushed up the price, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. The supply is strong, the production intention of refineries is high, and the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high and still increasing. The impact of supply - side sentiment is greater than the actual situation, and more observation and less action are recommended [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rebounded slightly. The US tariff on copper will be implemented on August 1st, which led to the return of refined copper to China and depressed the price. After the decline, the price stabilized and rebounded. Long - buying opportunities for the Shanghai copper main contract can be considered [51]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply from the mine end is tight, but the expectation of tin mine resumption in the fourth quarter has increased. The domestic processing fee is low, and the smelter's operating rate is below normal. The export from Indonesia has recovered, but the overall supply is still short. The consumption in the traditional field is in the off - season. The inventory at home and abroad is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The price of the mine end has weakened due to the pressure from the stainless - steel industry. The downstream nickel - iron plants are in losses, and some plants in Indonesia have shut down for maintenance. The stainless - steel market is strong in the futures but weak in the spot. The consumption is weak, and there is pressure above. The inventory in China is relatively high, and the primary nickel market is in excess [55]. Soybean Products (Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil) - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. The domestic soybean arrival volume is high, and the oil - mill's profit is low, with sufficient supply in the future. The increase in Brazilian soybean import cost provides support. The oil - mill's inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil increased. The consumption of soybean oil may be affected by the slowdown of catering growth, while the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. For soybean meal, long - buying opportunities at the support level after adjustment can be considered; for soybean oil, call - option opportunities at the support level after the decline can be considered [56]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose for the third consecutive week. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products decreased in the first 15 days of July. The biodiesel consumption in Indonesia increased, and the palm oil tax revenue is expected to support the biodiesel quota plan. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - high level in the past 7 years. The opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil can be considered [58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed slightly strengthened. The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in China decreased in May 2025. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil in China decreased. Long - buying opportunities for rapeseed products can be considered [61]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded to a new high. The US Department of Agriculture's July supply - demand report showed an increase in the global and US cotton production and ending inventory. The domestic cotton sowing area increased in 2025, and the output is expected to increase. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the short - term cotton price rebounds with the overall commodity market. The 7 - month supply - demand report is bearish. The domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease. The import volume of sugar in China increased in June but decreased from January to June. The sugar production in the key central - southern region of Brazil decreased more than expected in the second half of June. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume is high. After the short - term basis repair, the valuation is neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The expectation of apple production reduction has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly in the 2025 - 2026 season. The inventory in the main production areas decreased. The main contract represents the new - year purchase price. Short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [69]. Pig - The national average price of pigs decreased yesterday. The northern market was strong on the weekend, with the support of farmers' supply reduction, second - fattening, and seasonal consumption. The central region increased the supply, and the price decreased slightly. The southern market rose, with the support of the typhoon, farmers' reluctance to sell, and second - fattening. The short - term southern market may still have a small upward space, but attention should be paid to the supply rhythm [70]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The cost per catty of eggs decreased slightly, and the profit is still in losses. The inventory of laying hens increased in June and is expected to continue to increase in July. The supply is expected to increase year - on - year in July, and it is in the consumption off - season. The supply pressure in October may be relieved. The 9 - 10 reverse - spread strategy can be considered [72]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The market is worried about the impact of high - temperature on US corn growth. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is recovering. The port inventory has decreased rapidly, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The import may increase in the future, and the central - reserve corn auction has a net sales. The upward movement may face pressure, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Corn starch has weak supply and demand, high inventory, and follows the corn market [75]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log contract rose. The number of expected arrival ships of New Zealand logs in 18 ports increased in the 27th week of 2025, and the arrival volume increased significantly. The cost factors are mixed. The domestic log inventory has been decreasing, and the radiation - pine inventory has decreased rapidly. The price of radiation - pine logs in the port is stable. Before the first delivery, the market is expected to oscillate and adjust. The delivery situation has a positive impact on the main 09 and far - month contracts, but the price of standard products has not increased significantly [78].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **Chinese economy** and its **export-import dynamics** in the context of global trade, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S.-China tariffs and the overall economic performance in 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Performance**: In June 2025, China's exports showed a short-term strength with a year-on-year growth of **5.8%**, and a quarterly growth of **6.2%**. This was attributed to the easing of U.S.-China tariffs, although a decline in growth is expected post-August 2025 [1][3][6]. 2. **Import Dynamics**: Imports turned positive in June with a year-on-year growth of **1.1%**, driven by rising oil prices. The trade surplus expanded to **$114.77 billion**, marking the second-highest level of the year [1][4]. 3. **Sector-Specific Trends**: - **Consumer Goods**: Rapid recovery in consumer goods exports due to tariff easing. - **Semiconductors**: Steady improvement in the semiconductor and electronics sectors. - **Automotive Sector**: A cooling trend in automotive and parts exports, contributing only **0.7 percentage points** to overall export growth, influenced by U.S. tariffs and EU policies [1][7]. 4. **Economic Growth Contributions**: In the first half of 2025, net exports contributed **1.6 percentage points** to GDP growth, with a notable contribution of **1.2 percentage points** in Q2 [1][8]. 5. **Challenges Ahead**: The second half of 2025 is expected to face significant challenges due to uncertainties in the global tariff environment, particularly with the U.S. initiating new tariffs and the potential end of the tariff easing period [1][9][16]. 6. **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment saw a decline of **0.1%** in June, marking the first negative growth since 2022, with real estate development investment dropping by **12.9%** [3][12][13]. 7. **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth slowed to **4.8%** in June, with durable goods related to real estate maintaining high growth rates, particularly in automobiles and home appliances [3][11]. 8. **Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook**: Anticipated monetary easing and fiscal measures to stimulate demand and stabilize the economy, especially if export declines accelerate post-August [10][17]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Tariff Environment**: The uncertainty surrounding global tariffs, especially from the U.S., poses a risk to China's export outlook, particularly in the automotive sector [6][9]. 2. **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market continues to struggle, with significant declines in sales and prices, indicating a need for more robust policy support [14][22]. 3. **Labor Market and Inflation**: The U.S. labor market shows signs of improvement, which may influence inflation expectations and subsequently affect China's monetary policy decisions [26][28]. 4. **Urbanization Strategy**: The central urbanization strategy emphasizes a shift from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality improvements rather than quantity [23][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy and its trade dynamics.

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industries discussed. Core Insights - The copper market shows a mixed outlook with a slight increase in LME copper prices by 1.36% to $9,794.50 per ton, while domestic prices slightly decreased. The supply side indicates a decrease in copper inventory, but downstream demand remains cautious due to price fluctuations [2][15]. - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal weakness, with LME aluminum prices up by 1.38% to $2,638.00 per ton, but overall demand remains low, and inventory levels are fluctuating [3][16]. - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold prices slightly increasing by 0.01% to $3,355.50 per ounce, reflecting a growing short-term safe-haven appeal [4][17]. - The rare earth sector is seeing price recovery due to tightening supply expectations and increasing demand, particularly with significant investments from companies like MP Materials [5][39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with prices holding steady as domestic smelting operations face reductions, and new regulations may boost demand [5][40]. - The molybdenum market is showing upward momentum with low inventory levels and increasing demand from the steel sector, indicating a positive outlook for prices [6][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices increased slightly, but downstream demand is cautious due to price volatility. The operating rate for copper rod enterprises rose to 77.22% [2][15]. - Aluminum prices increased, but the overall demand remains weak, with a notable decrease in operating rates in the aluminum processing industry [3][16]. - Gold prices are influenced by international trade tensions, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][17]. 2. Rare Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - The rare earth market is experiencing upward price trends due to supply tightening and increasing demand, with significant investments from major companies [5][39]. - Antimony prices are stabilizing, with expectations of recovery in exports and new regulations potentially boosting demand [5][40]. - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise due to low inventory levels and increasing demand from the steel industry [6][41]. 3. Small Metals and Rare Earth Fundamentals Update - The rare earth sector is projected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, with a favorable regulatory environment [5][39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with potential for price recovery due to reduced domestic production and regulatory changes [5][40]. - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise as demand from the steel sector increases and inventory levels remain low [6][41].

ETF Industry News - The three major indices collectively rose, with the non-ferrous metal sector ETFs showing significant gains, particularly the Rare Metals ETF (561800.SH) which increased by 4.12%, Rare Metals ETF (159608.SZ) by 3.98%, and the Rare Earth ETF (159715.SZ) by 3.97. The electric equipment sector saw declines in multiple ETFs, with the Photovoltaic ETF Index Fund (159618.SZ) down by 0.87% [1] - According to CICC, limited marginal supply growth, along with improved export and domestic demand expectations, may drive a rebound in domestic rare earth prices. The global rare earth supply landscape is undergoing profound restructuring due to de-globalization, which may lead to a revaluation of domestic rare earth and magnetic material companies, as well as related overseas companies [1] Bond ETF Market - The scale of domestic bond ETFs has surpassed 481 billion yuan, reaching a record high of 481.057 billion yuan as of July 17. Year-to-date, bond ETFs have attracted a net inflow of 244.574 billion yuan, marking a 176.7% increase. The rapid growth of benchmark credit bonds has been followed by the recent launch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs, resulting in a single-day net inflow of 49.4 billion yuan, setting a new record for bond ETFs [2] Market Overview - On July 18, the three major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.5% to close at 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.37% to 10913.84 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.34% to 2277.15 points. The Hang Seng Index, CSI 300, and CSI 800 also performed well, with daily increases of 1.33%, 0.6%, and 0.51% respectively [3] Sector Performance - In the performance of various sectors, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel ranked highest with daily increases of 2.1%, 1.36%, and 1.34% respectively. Conversely, media, electronics, and light manufacturing sectors lagged behind with declines of -0.98%, -0.49%, and -0.41% respectively. Over the past five trading days, communication, pharmaceutical biology, and automotive sectors led with increases of 7.56%, 4.0%, and 3.28% respectively [6] ETF Market Performance - The overall performance of ETFs showed that cross-border ETFs had the best average daily increase of 0.70%, while money market ETFs had the worst performance with an average daily change of 0.00% [8] - The top-performing ETFs today included the Rare Metals ETF (561800.SH), Rare Metals ETF (159608.SZ), and Rare Earth ETF (159715.SZ), with daily returns of 4.12%, 3.98%, and 3.97% respectively [10] Trading Volume of Different ETF Categories - The top three ETFs by trading volume in the stock category were the A500 ETF Fund (512050.SH) with a trading volume of 3.628 billion yuan, the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588000.SH) with 3.052 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) with 2.941 billion yuan [13]

Introduction - The current global environment is characterized by a "chaotic period" as the old order is being disrupted and the new order is not yet clear [3][11] - The recommended asset allocation strategy is a "global barbell strategy" that is anti-fragile and based on an all-weather approach [3][11] 2025H1 Overseas Asset Market Review - The narrative of American exceptionalism is fading, facing three major challenges: the emergence of Deepseek affecting US-China tech narratives, concerns over fiscal tightening due to Musk's Doge initiative, and uncertainties from tariff policies [3][12] - Non-US assets have generally outperformed US assets in the first half of 2025 [12] Winning Probability - Global growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with the growth momentum between the US and non-US regions likely to converge [15] - Factors causing marginal changes include policy uncertainty damaging market confidence and delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [24] - The overall economic headwinds for the US may ease compared to the first half of the year, but recession risks remain [44] Odds - US assets are currently overvalued compared to non-US assets, indicating asymmetric risks [5][45] - The implied risk pricing for US assets does not adequately reflect the potential for recession, suggesting a need for caution [45][46] Outlook for 2025H2: Global Asset Allocation - The global asset allocation should still follow the anti-fragile "barbell strategy," focusing on three core contradictions: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [72][75] - The strategy involves investing in a majority of low-risk assets while allocating a smaller portion to high-risk, high-reward assets [75] - Specific recommendations include over-allocating to Chinese government bonds and emerging markets in Southeast Asia, while maintaining a cautious stance on US equities due to potential volatility [75][88][104]