1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market was consolidating at a high level. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Treasury Bond Market and the Enterprise Bond Market both ended the impact of the restart of IPO on the bond market. In the short term, the CPI is still in a deep negative growth range, and the slowdown of bank credit has increased the demand for bonds, keeping the bond market at a high level. However, in the long run, the bond market faces challenges such as the restart of IPO and inflation [1][12]. - The significant increase in US Treasury yields is a warning for Chinese bond investments. Although the current CPI is still low, the expectation of subsequent increase is gradually strengthening. Inflation will come sooner or later due to the large - scale liquidity [2][14]. - The domestic economic downward pressure is large, and the foreign economic situation remains sluggish. The country is taking measures to expand domestic demand, stabilize foreign demand, and continue to support the economy through finance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Economic Situation - **Domestic Economy**: There are some positive changes in China's economic operation, but the foundation is not stable. In April, the year - on - year decline in social electricity consumption increased to 3.63% from 2.01% in March. From January to April, the industrial profits of 22 regions decreased by 27.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 4.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter. The country is now emphasizing both domestic and foreign demand [3]. - **Foreign Economy**: The United Nations predicts that the global economic growth in 2009 will be - 2.6%, significantly lower than the initial forecast of - 0.5%. The US economy has declined for three consecutive quarters, with a 5.7% decline in the first quarter of this year. Many economic fields in the US are still deteriorating [3]. Central Bank Dynamics - **Monetary Policy**: There was no relevant information on monetary policy trends last Wednesday [4]. - **Open Market Operations**: Last week, the net investment was + 800 million yuan, with 800 million yuan in positive repurchases, 650 million yuan in maturing central bank bills, and 950 million yuan in maturing positive repurchases [6]. Money Market - **Shibor Interest Rates**: On May 31, Shibor interest rates showed mixed changes, with the 1 - day and 7 - day lending rates remaining below 1%, indicating a relatively loose capital supply. The long - term lending rates slightly rebounded [6][7]. - **Pledged Repurchase Rates**: On May 31, the pledged repurchase rates in the inter - bank bond market changed slightly, with the 1 - day and 7 - day repurchase rates showing small declines and the trading volume also decreasing [9]. - **Inter - bank Lending Rates**: On May 31, the average overnight lending rate was 0.8146%, and the 7 - day lending rate was 0.9560%. The 21 - day lending rate increased by 99BP [11]. Weekly Market Review - From May 25 - 27, due to holidays, there were only three trading days. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Treasury Bond Index closed at 121.55 points on Wednesday, up 0.01 points from the previous weekend, and the Enterprise Bond Index closed at 134.64 points, up 0.06 points. In the short term, the bond market is at a high level, but in the long term, it faces challenges from IPO restart and inflation [12]. Investment Recommendations - The yields of US Treasury bonds and mortgage - backed securities have risen significantly. It is recommended to gradually reduce bond investments, avoid bonds with too low yields, appropriately hold high - coupon and floating - rate bonds based on the money market rate, and strictly control the investment duration [14].

Core Viewpoint - In recent years, gold has gained increasing attention as a financial asset in China, reflecting a shift in asset allocation focus from "dollars" and "U.S. Treasuries" to gold, driven by factors such as monetary credit, geopolitical tensions, and global risks [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank's Logic for Increasing Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves by the central bank is a strategic consideration aimed at enhancing financial security and reducing dependence on U.S. dollar assets, thereby mitigating the influence of dollar hegemony [2][3]. - Gold's strong value preservation attributes make it an effective hedge against inflation and asset depreciation, especially in the context of global monetary expansion and persistent inflationary pressures [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Price Evolution of Gold - Gold has historically been used as currency, with its value stability primarily determined by its scarcity, peaking during the gold standard era in the 19th century [4]. - The price of gold experienced significant fluctuations post-1971, particularly during the 1970s oil crisis and the 2000s financial crises, highlighting its role as a crisis hedge [5][6]. Group 3: Current "Gold Rush" and Future Implications - The recent trend of increasing gold reserves by central banks, including China, reflects a broader global demand for asset safety and diversification amid a complex international political and economic environment [7][8]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and rising inflation expectations are likely to sustain upward pressure on gold prices, as investors seek refuge in gold during times of uncertainty [7][8]. Group 4: Structural Differences in the Current Gold Market - Unlike previous gold bull markets, the current "gold rush" is characterized by collective buying from multiple central banks, including Russia and India, indicating a systemic hedge against dollar credit [8]. - The rapid transformation of the financial system, driven by the rise of digital currencies and blockchain technology, is reshaping the traditional monetary landscape and enhancing gold's value proposition [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's dovish signals on the financial markets, particularly focusing on the implications for gold and silver prices amid ongoing economic uncertainties and trade tensions. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut by the end of the month according to CME's FedWatch tool [3] - Powell's comments highlighted concerns about the labor market and inflation, which have contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.03% and the 30-year yield reaching a new low of 4.59% [1][3] - The dovish stance of the Fed is seen as supportive for gold prices, as low inflation and low yield environments create favorable conditions for precious metals [3] Group 2: Economic Uncertainties and Government Shutdown - The U.S. government has been in shutdown for 14 days, with a failure to pass a temporary funding bill, increasing economic uncertainty [3][4] - The shutdown has led to the layoff of over 4,100 federal employees, although this number is lower than initial estimates, indicating a less severe impact than anticipated [4] - The ongoing government shutdown and lack of economic data are contributing to market volatility and risk aversion, further influencing the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][4] Group 3: Trade Tensions and Currency Movements - Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China have negatively impacted market sentiment, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [5] - The imposition of reciprocal port fees has exacerbated risk aversion, causing funds to flow from equities to bonds as investors seek safety [1][5] - The weakening dollar is expected to diminish its attractiveness, potentially boosting the relative value of gold [3][5] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Current spot prices for gold are around $4,185 per ounce, while silver is priced at $52.18 per ounce, reflecting the ongoing volatility in the precious metals market [5] - The silver market is currently experiencing a price consolidation phase, with strategies suggested for both long and short positions based on support and resistance levels [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite significantly cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly but rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to -5 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment increased notably [4]. - For silver, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded significantly to -250 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment for silver price recovered notably [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 2.50 basis points to 4.028%), the dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.05, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.14, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $4159.60 per ounce. The basis was -3.97 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1455 kilograms to 72183 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 6.37 basis points to 4.053%), the dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.26, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.1478, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.17% to $50.35 per ounce. The basis was -41 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 61384 kilograms to 1063072 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [6]. 3.2每日提示 - **Gold**: The expected events to watch include China's CPI and PPI, whether the U.S. government shutdown ends, the Fed's Beige Book, and intensive speeches by Fed and ECB members. Despite the resurfaced tariff concerns, the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly and then rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Silver**: The expected events to watch are the same as for gold. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. 3.3今日关注 The events to watch on this day include: at 07:30, the speech of Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs of the Reserve Bank of Australia; at 09:30, China's September CPI and PPI; the time - undetermined release of India's September imports, exports, and trade balance; at 15:40, the speech of de Guindos, Vice - President of the European Central Bank; at 16:00, the speech of Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 17:00, the euro - zone's August industrial output; possibly at 20:30, the U.S. October New York Fed Manufacturing Index; at 21:30, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the "Invest in America Forum"; at 21:45, the speeches of ECB Governing Council members Donnelly and Rehn; at 23:45, the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 23:50, the speech of Villeroy, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of France; at 00:15, Donnelly's participation in a panel discussion at the IIF Annual Meeting; at 00:30 the next day, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the Nomura Research Forum; at 01:00 the next day, Fed Governor Waller's talk on artificial intelligence (AI); at 02:00 the next day, the release of the Fed's Beige Book and the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 02:30 the next day, the speech of Jeff Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2025 FOMC voter); at 03:45 the next day, the participation of Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in a fireside chat during the Nomura Research Forum; at 05:50 the next day, the speech of Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor for Financial Markets of the Reserve Bank of Australia [15]. 3.4基本面数据 - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory increase is bearish, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also a mix. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory change is neutral, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [6]. 3.5持仓数据 - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 4.28% (from 220,070 to 210,658), the short positions increased by 0.33% (from 78,569 to 78,831), and the net position decreased by 6.84% (from 141,501 to 131,827) [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.22% (from 368,167 to 356,307), the short positions decreased by 1.81% (from 268,339 to 263,493), and the net position decreased by 7.03% (from 99,828 to 92,814) [6][34].

Group 1 - The economic internal pressure is gradually emerging as the "cyclical" forces weaken, with high export growth driven by the shift from short-term "export grabbing" logic to medium-term logic of "industrialization acceleration in emerging countries" and China's market share replacement in emerging markets [2][10] - Domestic demand may continue to be under pressure, reflected in the decline of equipment renewal cycles and reduced new construction, leading to potential further downturns in manufacturing and real estate investment [2][22] - The profit margin for enterprises remains under pressure, with August industrial enterprise profits rebounding significantly (+21 percentage points to 19.8%), primarily due to low base effects and short-term factors, while cost rates remain high at 85.6% [3][31] Group 2 - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may have a time lag in stimulating the economy, with the "demand overdraw" effect from previous policies becoming more apparent, potentially leading to weaker consumer goods consumption and manufacturing investment [4][83] - The issuance of special government bonds has been completed, and many regions have suspended national subsidies, indicating a potential decline in manufacturing investment and consumer goods retail growth [4][38] - The implementation of "incremental policies" is slow, with limited immediate impact on the economy, as new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan are expected to take time to translate into substantial economic support [5][84] Group 3 - Expectations for inflation support are diminishing, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, leading to a reduced impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) [6][59] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are expected to show weak recovery characteristics, with PPI growth being limited by lower capacity utilization in downstream sectors [6][63] - Economic growth's internal momentum is expected to decline, with a focus on the effectiveness of incremental policies in supporting domestic demand, while external demand may still show resilience [8][71]

Group 1: Economic Trends - The internal pressure on the economy is gradually emerging as the cyclical forces decline, with manufacturing and real estate investments likely to continue their downward trend[1] - Exports are expected to maintain high growth, driven by the industrialization of emerging countries and China's increased market share in emerging markets[1] - The GDP growth is projected to be 4.6% in Q3 and 4.8% in Q4 of 2025, indicating limited downward pressure on the economy[6] Group 2: Corporate Profitability - In August, industrial enterprise profits rebounded significantly by 21 percentage points to 19.8%, primarily due to low base effects and short-term factors[2] - The cost rate for industrial enterprises remains high at 85.6%, which continues to drag down profit growth[2] Group 3: Policy Impact - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may lead to a time lag in economic stimulation, with potential weakness in consumer goods and manufacturing investments[3] - The issuance of special government bonds has been completed, but the impact on manufacturing investment may still be negative due to demand exhaustion effects[3] Group 4: Inflation and Price Trends - Expectations for inflation support are declining, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, which reduces the positive impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI)[5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain low due to high youth unemployment and increased supply of live pigs, which suppresses food prices[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term and medium-term price trends of silver, highlighting significant price movements and the factors influencing these trends, including macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [4][10][94]. Group 1: Long-term Price Trends - Silver has experienced two major bull and bear cycles since the 1980s, with the current bull market starting in 2020 and breaking the $50 mark recently [4]. - Historical peaks for London silver approached $50, while New York silver has been relatively subdued in comparison [4]. Group 2: Medium-term Price Trends - Seasonal price patterns indicate that March, April, and June typically see lower prices, while January, February, July, and December perform better [6]. - The current market has seen a record of six consecutive monthly gains, surpassing the previous record of five [6]. Group 3: Silver Analysis Framework - The financial attributes of silver have shifted to commodity attributes, with 59% of its characteristics now aligned with commodities, making it more sensitive to inflation expectations than gold [10]. - Silver's pricing is primarily based on gold, but its historical volatility is greater than that of gold [10]. Group 4: Influencing Factors and Outlook - The narrative of "de-dollarization" continues to gain traction, with major economies diversifying their foreign reserves by reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves [19]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and market expectations are crucial, with the neutral interest rate currently at 3.2%, slightly above the Fed's long-term rate [23][27]. Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global silver supply is primarily sourced from mining, accounting for over 80% of total supply, with production levels stable above 25,000 tons [55]. - Industrial demand for silver is robust, particularly in electronics and photovoltaics, which constitute nearly 60% of total demand [64][68]. Group 6: Investment Demand - Investment demand for silver has seen a resurgence, with physical investment increasing significantly, evidenced by a doubling of delivery volumes on Comex compared to the previous year [76][82]. - The anticipated supply-demand gap for silver is projected to narrow in 2025, with a forecasted physical demand of 35,716 tons, down 1% from the previous year [83].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 14 日 白银新纪元：风浪与机遇并存 ——解析白银价差矛盾与行情展望 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 本报告深入剖析了白银市场所处的历史性时刻，核心围绕一场史无前例的现货挤仓展开。当前市场的 最大特征在于海外现货的极端紧俏，这具体表现为伦敦银相较纽约银出现历史首次价差倒挂，白银租赁利 率飙升至接近 40%的惊人水平，同时伦敦可流动库存已降至极其危险的低位。这一局面的形成，是过去数年 光伏需求推动下库存持续去化的长期铺垫、美国潜在关税威胁引发囤货套利的事件催化、以及全球投资情 绪与印度季节性买盘共振共同作用的结果。 面对如此极端的市场结构，我们演绎未来两种可能的演变路径。其一，是通过跨市场的物流套利实现再 平衡，即利用打开的出口窗口将白银从纽约或亚洲运往伦敦。然而，此路径受限于美国在关税落地前的出口 意愿不足以及中国自身的库存低位，其进程在很大程度上取决于关键的政策时点。其二，则是通过单边价格 的大幅回调，迫使获利盘了结并释放流动性，从而被动缓解现货矛盾。我们认为，当前可能正处于现货矛盾 的高峰，价差 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) has declined, with the latest exchange rate at 0.6469, reflecting a drop of 0.75% after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes were released [1] - The RBA indicated that the decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% was influenced by the risk of accelerating inflation amid a "slightly tight" labor market [1] - Consumer inflation expectations in Australia rose from 4.7% to 4.8%, marking the highest level since June, which has heightened concerns about potential inflation exceeding expectations in the third quarter [1] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that the RBA will maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% following its decision in September [2] - Upcoming speeches from RBA officials and the release of September employment data are anticipated to provide further insights into the economic outlook [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate is in a downward channel, with a bearish trend prevailing [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral line of 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the AUD/USD [4] - Key support levels for the AUD/USD are identified at 0.6415 and 0.6373, while resistance levels are at 0.6630 and 0.6707 [3][4]

Report 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View Although steel demand is weak, the cost side provides support. Pay attention to the support levels around 3000 and 3200 for the January contract of rebar and hot-rolled coil respectively. The short-term weak macro sentiment will suppress the black market, but if the Sino-US friction intensifies in the medium term, the inflation expectation of upstream resource products will increase. [1] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3230 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased from 3159 to 3139 yuan/ton. [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price decreased by 10 to 2940 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coil in East China decreased by 7. [1] - **Mills**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 to 863.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 57.4 to 659.6 tons, an increase of 9.5%. [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 9.1 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 153.4 to 751.4 tons, a decline of 17.0%. [1] Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The weak performance of finished products drags down the raw materials. The iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low levels and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil. [4] Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 1-5 spread increased by 3.0 to 23.5, an increase of 14.6%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5 tons, a decline of 2.2%, and the 45-port arrival volume increased by 437.1 to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9 tons, a decline of 2.9%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45-port inventory increased by 46.7 to 14024.5 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 to 9046.2 tons, a decline of 9.9%. [4] Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View For coke, it is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal. [6] Summary by Directory - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased from 1667 to 1643 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1161 to 1146 yuan/ton. [6] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all-sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the output of raw coal decreased by 31.3 to 836.7 tons, a decline of 3.6%. [6] - **Demand**: The iron ore output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 to 909.8 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants decreased by 78.7 to 959.1 tons, a decline of 7.6%. [6]