（来源：中华工商时报） 转自：中华工商时报 近期召开的中央经济工作会议提出，"制定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治'内卷式'竞争"。自2024 年中央经济工作会议提出"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"以来，"反内卷"贯穿2025全年。本次将表述从"综合整 治"调整为"深入整治"，标志着从宏观政策导向深化为具象化的攻坚任务，对经济、市场、产业及民生 等多个维度意义重大。 "内卷式"竞争的本质是市场秩序与资源配置效率的扭曲，会让企业陷入低价内耗，不仅没有整体收益的 增长，而且浪费资源。中央此次强化整治力度，正是要通过制度建设扭转"越努力越低效"的恶性局面， 引导资源从低质内卷领域流向创新、高效领域。 在保障民生与社会稳定方面，通过坚决守住底线、规避"低价陷阱"，保障产品和服务质量，避免以次充 好、服务缩水等损害消费者权益的行为。尤其对中小企业来说，整治行动可以拓宽生存空间，减少因大 企业内卷带来的挤压，让各类经营主体在公平环境中竞争。 当前，"反内卷"已形成多维度治理体系。国家市场监督管理总局召开企业公平竞争座谈会，工信部组织 光伏企业座谈会，国家邮政局、快递行业协会纷纷出台配套措施，构建起"法律保障+政策引导+行业自 ...

● 本报记者刘杨 "'变'是今年光伏行业的关键词，既有变化也有变革，在这其中，行业的发展格局正在得以重塑。"中国 光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华近日在2025光伏行业年度大会上的表述，精准勾勒出当下光伏行业的发 展底色。从价格战的惨烈内耗到"反内卷"的集体觉醒，从固定电价时代的终结到全面市场化的转型，多 重变革交织之下，光伏行业正经历从规模性扩张到高质量发展的深刻蜕变。 面对行业调整，"反内卷"成为全行业的核心共识与转型方向。王勃华强调，"反内卷"的核心目标是推动 行业从"量"的规模竞赛转向"质"的价值创造。在此背景下，行业自律与政策引导形成合力：中国光伏行 业协会推动建立全产业链价格指数、编制主流产品成本模型，监测不正当竞价行为；近60家企业在年度 大会期间达成加强行业自律的共识。 展望2026年，行业转型压力与发展潜力并存。国金证券预测，受各地市场化电价不确定性影响，2026年 国内光伏新增装机量可能出现近年来首次负增长。但王勃华强调，行业阶段性不景气并非衰退的开 始，"十五五"末我国新能源发电装机比重将超过50%，市场仍具较大潜力。 呈现分化趋势 业绩逐步修复 产业链价格的变化与企业业绩的逐步修复，贯穿2 ...

2025年，"反内卷"成为光伏行业摆脱困境的核心共识与行动纲领。历经约两年产能过剩引发的惨烈价格 战，行业已全面进入深度调整期。从政策引导市场化转型到企业布局价值创造，从产业链价格触底回升 到产能出清持续深化，光伏行业正经历一场从"规模竞赛"到"质量比拼"的转型攻坚。 当前，行业破内卷成效初显，但彻底走出调整期仍面临多重考验。多位受访的业内人士对中国证券报记 者表示，这场攻坚的成效将取决于行业自律的执行力度、技术创新的突破速度以及政策与市场机制的完 善程度，这三个关键变量决定着光伏行业能否真正走出调整期，迈向高质量发展的新阶段。 ● 本报记者 刘杨 从价格战泥潭到反内卷共识 过去一段时期，产能过剩引发的惨烈价格战，让光伏行业陷入"增量不增利"的恶性循环，整个产业链利 润被极度压缩。中国光伏行业协会数据显示，2025年前三季度光伏主产业链环节企业亏损达310.39亿 元，其中三季度亏损64.22亿元，虽较二季度收窄46.7%，但亏损面仍未根本扭转。 价格战的后遗症不仅体现在财务数据上，更侵蚀了行业发展的根基。记者调研了解到，当组件价格被压 至现金成本线附近，研发投入成为最先被削减的选项，技术创新陷入停滞，部分产 ...

● 本报记者 刘杨 产业链价格的变化与企业业绩的逐步修复，贯穿2025年光伏行业发展全程。受分布式新政、"136号 文"等因素影响，电池、硅片等价格上半年先扬后抑，3月达高点后逐步下行，6月触及低点，7-10月价 格回升并保持稳定。 上述因素带动企业盈利改善。中国光伏行业协会数据显示，前三季度主产业链环节企业亏损达310.39亿 元，但三季度亏损额较二季度收窄46.7%；主产业链31家上市企业营收降幅逐季收窄，市场悲观预期得 到扭转。 面对行业调整，"反内卷"成为全行业的核心共识与转型方向。王勃华强调，"反内卷"的核心目标是推动 行业从"量"的规模竞赛转向"质"的价值创造。在此背景下，行业自律与政策引导形成合力：中国光伏行 业协会推动建立全产业链价格指数、编制主流产品成本模型，监测不正当竞价行为；近60家企业在年度 大会期间达成加强行业自律的共识。 增速放缓的信号率先在制造端显现。王勃华表示，2025年1-10月，我国多晶硅产量约为111.3万吨，同 比下降29.6%，这是2013年以来首次同比下降；硅片产量约为567GW，同比下降6.7%。 与之形成对比的是，应用端装机在政策驱动下呈现高增长。1-10月国内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is marked by significant economic resilience and vitality in China, showcasing a strong recovery and development trajectory amid global challenges [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with an economic increment of over 35 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, equivalent to recreating the economic scale of the Yangtze River Delta [3]. - The average annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be 5.5%, significantly higher than the global average, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen a surge in innovation, with record R&D investments and advancements in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [4]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - In 2025, China will implement a combination of "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," with the fiscal deficit rate rising to a historical high of 4% [6]. - The total new government debt is expected to increase by nearly 3 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 12 trillion yuan [6]. - Monetary policy will focus on supporting economic growth, with a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, leading to a significant increase in social financing and loan balances [6][7]. Group 3: Consumer Market and Consumption - Consumption is a key focus for expanding domestic demand, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, contributing around 60% to economic growth [8]. - The government has increased funding for consumption incentives, doubling the budget for old-for-new consumption programs to 300 billion yuan [8]. - The service sector is experiencing rapid growth, with service retail sales outpacing goods retail sales in growth rates [8]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence and Technology - 2025 is seen as a breakthrough year for AI applications in China, with the government emphasizing the "Artificial Intelligence+" strategy [10]. - China holds 60% of global AI patents, and the core AI industry is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025 [10]. - The data industry in China is also expanding, with a current scale of over 5.8 trillion yuan and expected annual growth rates of over 15% from 2025 to 2030 [10]. Group 5: Private Economy and Investment - The private economy is positioned for significant growth, supported by new legislation that reinforces the legal status and development of private enterprises [13]. - Policies aimed at enhancing private investment have been implemented, focusing on expanding access and improving investment efficiency [13]. - Continuous communication between government and private enterprises is fostering a healthier environment for private sector growth [13]. Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - The "Two Innovation Boards" (Science and Technology Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market) are undergoing reforms to enhance market inclusivity and adaptability [16]. - Since the introduction of new policies, over 20 companies have applied for IPOs on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, with significant fundraising success [17]. - The capital market is becoming a crucial hub for nurturing new productive forces, with ongoing reforms releasing substantial capital for technological innovation [17]. Group 7: Foreign Trade and Investment - In 2025, China is focusing on stabilizing foreign trade and investment through institutional innovation and open practices, with a notable increase in foreign investment enterprises [20]. - Policies supporting foreign trade and investment are being implemented, including market access expansion and improved business environments for foreign enterprises [21]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port has implemented attractive policies to enhance trade, contributing to China's goal of becoming a trade powerhouse [21]. Group 8: Risk Management and Economic Stability - China is actively addressing risks in key sectors, including local government debt and financial institution stability, to ensure high-quality development [22]. - The government is replacing hidden debts with special bonds, significantly reducing interest costs for local governments [22]. - Measures to stabilize the housing market and support affordable housing projects are being prioritized to protect consumer rights [22].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's China and Hong Kong equity strategy head, Liu Mingdi, forecasts significant upside potential for major indices by 2026, with MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index projected to reach 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively, indicating approximately double-digit growth from current levels [1][3]. Investment Themes - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: "anti-involution," growth in global AI infrastructure spending, the positive impact of developed countries' easing policies on exports, and the "K-shaped" recovery in consumption benefiting food and beverage and ultra-premium sectors [1][4]. - A potential fifth theme is the stabilization of the real estate market, with expectations for clearer signals during the upcoming National People's Congress [4]. Market Outlook - Liu's team has maintained a positive outlook on MSCI China and CSI 300 indices since January 2025, with expectations for continued upward trends into 2026. The current economic phase is characterized as "summer," with potential for a "spring sprint" in growth stocks by 2026 [3][4]. - The target growth rates for the indices are approximately 22% for MSCI China, 13.5% for CSI 300, and 17.8% for MSCI Hong Kong [3]. Sector Analysis - Semiconductor valuations are currently considered high, while sectors such as photovoltaics and energy storage are viewed more favorably. The market is expected to mature, leading to reduced volatility and increased asset configurability [5][6]. - The consumption sector is seen as attractive due to low valuations compared to other markets, with the MSCI China Consumer Staples Index having a lower price-to-earnings ratio than its counterparts in India, the US, and Japan [7][9]. Consumer Sentiment - The current consumer spending slowdown is attributed to concerns over income and employment rather than a lack of funds. There is optimism for consumer recovery, particularly as government policies focus on consumption and real estate in the coming year [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" and is maintained [15] Core Insights - The report provides a forward-looking analysis of the transportation industry for Q4 2025, highlighting improvements in passenger demand and operational efficiencies across various sub-sectors [2][6] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to see marginal demand improvements, with significant reductions in losses anticipated for Q4 2025. Domestic business demand is stabilizing, and international flights continue to perform well despite short-term disruptions from flight cancellations [6][23] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is projected to increase, with international flights also climbing. Revenue is expected to improve as a result of rising passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [7][26] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth but is improving profitability through price adjustments and a focus on high-value services. The net profit is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [8][29] Logistics - The logistics sector is stabilizing at the bottom of its performance cycle, with cross-border logistics showing signs of recovery. However, overall demand remains weak, leading to a slight decline in performance for major supply chain players [9][31] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector is witnessing a divergence in profitability among different vessel types. While container shipping faces pressure on earnings, oil and bulk shipping are expected to see improvements due to increased demand and operational efficiencies [10][32] Ports - Port operations are expected to benefit from improved handling of bulk goods and stable container throughput, supported by easing trade tensions and increased exports to ASEAN and EU regions [11][38] Highways - The highway sector is projected to see limited growth, with stable profitability expected as truck traffic shows slight improvements compared to the previous year [12][40] Railways - The railway sector is experiencing a split in performance, with passenger transport growth accelerating while freight transport growth is slowing down. The focus on expanding non-coal business is expected to impact profitability negatively [13][42]

Group 1 - China's foreign trade achievements are a natural result of deep transformation and high-quality development in the manufacturing sector over the past decade [2] - China's industrial added value accounts for 32% of the global total, establishing a "one-third" structure where Chinese manufacturing represents one-third, developed countries one-third, and other developing countries one-third [2] - China has formed global competitive advantages in five key sectors: automotive, shipbuilding, high-speed rail, power equipment, and renewable energy (photovoltaics) [2] Group 2 - The structure of foreign investment in China continues to optimize, with actual foreign investment doubling over the past decade to an average of approximately $120 billion annually [3] - Foreign-funded enterprises contribute about 30% of national exports, 50% of high-value-added equipment and electronic product exports, and 15% of industrial and commercial tax revenue [3] - Exports have shifted from a focus on processing trade to a cluster-based export model with embedded domestic value [3] Group 3 - China should promote a balanced approach to imports and exports, enhance trade quality, and increase the internationalization of the Renminbi [4] - An appropriate appreciation of the Renminbi is suggested to enhance purchasing power and promote import growth, aiming for a doubling of per capita GDP in USD terms over the medium to long term [4] Group 4 - It is recommended to moderately reduce export tax rebates based on industry differences and overall needs, reallocating fiscal resources to domestic welfare and innovation [5] - There is an emphasis on improving minimum wage standards and implementing paid leave to promote common prosperity and consumption upgrades [5] Group 5 - The need to prevent "involution" domestically from affecting international trade is highlighted, with a focus on enhancing the brand value and overall profit levels of Chinese manufacturing [6] - China aims to improve service trade, targeting that by 2040, service trade will account for 20% of the total volume of goods and service trade, aligning with the global average [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to shift competition from "price wars" to "value wars" in order to escape the phenomenon of "involution" in various industries, particularly in the context of internet platforms and sectors like photovoltaic, automotive, and battery manufacturing [2][10]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Internet Information Office have jointly issued the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" to regulate pricing behaviors on platforms and protect the rights of consumers and operators [2][3]. - The new rules prohibit practices such as predatory pricing, price discrimination, collusion to raise prices, price fraud, and price gouging, establishing clear boundaries for competition [3][4]. - The rules aim to enhance transparency, promote collaboration among stakeholders, and create a healthy platform ecosystem, providing clear guidelines for pricing behavior [3][5]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Actions - The photovoltaic industry has made significant progress in addressing "involution," with the establishment of a platform for the consolidation of polysilicon production capacity, aimed at mitigating vicious competition [8]. - The photovoltaic sector reported a loss of 31.039 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a reduction in losses in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, indicating a potential stabilization in the industry [8]. - The National Energy Administration has emphasized the need for self-regulation within the photovoltaic industry to address issues of "involution" and low-price bidding, while also implementing policies to stabilize prices and improve competition order [9]. Group 3: Consumer Protection - The new rules include provisions to protect consumer rights, focusing on the right to information and the right to choose, requiring operators to clearly display pricing options and provide easy cancellation methods for services [6][7]. - The rules mandate transparency in promotional activities, such as subsidies and discounts, to prevent misleading practices like "false discounts" and "price hikes before discounts" [6][9]. Group 4: Future Directions - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for deeper governance of "involution" in competition, indicating that future policies will continue to focus on this issue [10][11]. - The emphasis on systematic approaches to address "involution" includes enhancing industry self-regulation, standard-setting, and utilizing various regulatory tools to ensure a fair competitive environment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage strategy analysts remain optimistic about the spring market rally, awaiting an effective signal to initiate the movement [1] Group 1: Market Signals and Economic Indicators - Analysts from Xingzheng Strategy highlight that the liquidity expectations are shifting positively due to recent overseas events and a supportive domestic policy environment, indicating a transition from cautious behavior to actively seeking opportunities [1] - Key signals to watch for the potential market rally include the possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions at the end of the year and early next year, with observation windows in early next week and January [1][2] - Important economic indicators such as PPI, PMI, M1, social financing, and annual reports from listed companies are expected to uplift the basic economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends and Sector Focus - The Guangfa Strategy team anticipates that 2026 will resemble an enhanced version of 2025, with continued support from insurance capital and regulation, alongside an acceleration in the migration of deposits from residents, particularly among high-net-worth individuals [1][2] - The trend of high-net-worth residents moving their deposits has already begun to accelerate, with new private equity fund registrations reaching 386 billion yuan from January to October 2025, with monthly registration sizes nearing levels seen in 2021 [1][2] - The Xinda Strategy team emphasizes the increasing elasticity of non-bank financial sectors, suggesting a potential rotation of market focus from banks to non-bank financials, with insurance valuations appearing more attractive [1][3] Group 3: Sectoral Opportunities and Predictions - Analysts suggest that sectors benefiting from policy support, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and consumer services, are likely to see significant growth, with a projected net profit growth rate exceeding 30% in 2026 [2] - The market is expected to experience structural opportunities driven by policy guidance and industrial momentum, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The spring market rally is anticipated to be influenced by the performance of cyclical sectors, with a focus on commodities and consumer sectors benefiting from increased consumption and fiscal stimulus [3]