Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The geopolitical situation causes repeated disturbances to oil prices, and the macro - economic uncertainty limits the upside space of oil prices, with short - term shocks expected [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a relatively good fundamental situation, with low - inventory levels before the peak season, and prices are expected to have upward elasticity [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental situation [5][8]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand growth, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [9][11]. - The natural gas price in the US is expected to be weak in shock, while in Europe it is expected to be strong in shock [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to be stable and slightly strong in the third quarter due to future supply and demand patterns [14][16]. - The ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [17][18]. - The short - fiber price follows the raw material trend, and the market is currently weak [19][20]. - The bottle - chip market is weak, and the processing fee may be suppressed [21]. - The styrene price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, with a short - term upward trend [23]. - The PVC is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the caustic soda demand has uncertainty [26][27]. - The polyolefin market is expected to be short - term volatile and medium - term bearish [30]. - The soda ash price is expected to decline, and the glass price is expected to be weak in shock [32][37]. - The urea price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy changes [38][39]. - The methanol market is still mainly for rebound short - selling [40][42]. - The log market is expected to be stable in the short term but faces challenges in the long term [43][46]. - The double - offset paper market continues to be weak, and the corrugated paper market is expected to rebound [46][48]. - The paper pulp market has both positive and negative factors, and the natural rubber market has different trends in different regions [49][53]. - The butadiene rubber market should be observed, and attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [54][56]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2506 contract settled at $62.69, up $0.20/barrel, + 0.32%; Brent2507 contract settled at $65.54, up $0.13/barrel, + 0.20%; SC main contract 2507 rose to 461.4 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 465.4 yuan/barrel. Brent main - secondary spread was $0.72/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: There are developments in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and the EU plans to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and macro - economic uncertainty limits the upside space of oil prices. Short - term shocks are expected, and the medium - term range of Brent is expected to be $60 - 70/barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term shocks, medium - term weakness; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2506 night - session closed at 3543 points (+ 1.17%), BU2509 night - session closed at 3470 points (+ 1.17%). Spot prices vary by region [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions have different trends, affected by factors such as refinery production and terminal demand [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The start - up rate and inventory rate are low, and the price is expected to be weakly stable. The current fundamental situation is good, and the price has upward elasticity [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shocks; asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be strong in shock; options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2506 night - session closed at 4255 (- 0.21%), PG2507 night - session closed at 4193 (- 0.26%). Spot prices vary by region [5]. - **Related News**: The market in different regions has different trends, with supply and demand imbalances [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is affected by oil prices, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak during the summer off - season. The fundamental situation is weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly stated, but the overall situation is bearish [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 contract night - session closed at 3034 (+ 0.60%), LU07 night - session closed at 3566 (- 0.28%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads have declined [9]. - **Related News**: Russian refinery maintenance and Thai fuel oil sales information [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand growth, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; FU 9 - 1 positive spread takes profit, LU7 - 8 reverse spread enters at high levels [11]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.133 (- 6.63%), TTF closed at 35.225 (+ 0.2%), JKM closed at 11.985 (+ 0.55%) [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be weak in shock. European gas prices are affected by cold weather and geopolitics, and are expected to be strong in shock [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: HH is weak in shock, TTF is strong in shock [14]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6752 (+ 8/+ 0.12%), night - session closed at 6702 (- 50/- 0.74%). Spot prices have increased [14]. - **Related News**: The production status of PX devices and the sales situation of downstream products [14][15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply shortage is slightly alleviated, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the third quarter [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shocks; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4776 (+ 2/+ 0.04%), night - session closed at 4746 (- 30/- 0.63%). Spot prices and basis have changes [16]. - **Related News**: The sales situation of downstream polyester products [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the third quarter, maintaining a tight - balance situation [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shocks; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4475 (+ 15/+ 0.34%), night - session closed at 4440 (- 35/- 0.78%). Spot basis and transaction prices are provided [17][18]. - **Related News**: The inventory situation of ports and the production status of devices [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The port inventory has declined slightly, the supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [19]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6544 (- 6/- 0.09%), night - session closed at 6528 (- 16/- 0.24%). Spot prices are stable [19]. - **Related News**: The sales situation of downstream polyester products [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the raw material trend, and the current market is weak [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shocks; on hold for arbitrage and options [21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 6088 (+ 6/+ 0.10%), night - session closed at 6066 (- 22/- 0.36%). Spot market transactions are light [21]. - **Related News**: The export quotation situation of bottle - chip factories [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak, and the processing fee may be suppressed [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [22]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2506 main contract closed at 7779 (+ 118/+ 1.54%), night - session closed at 7704 (- 75/- 0.96%). Spot prices and basis are provided [23]. - **Related News**: The inventory situation of ports and the production status of devices [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is increasing, the port inventory is expected to decline slightly, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock - upward trend; on hold for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: SH509 and V2509 have different closing prices in the day - session and night - session. PVC and caustic soda spot prices have changes [24][26]. - **Related News**: The price change of Shandong Xinfag liquid chlorine [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC is in a long - term oversupply situation, and caustic soda demand has uncertainty [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: PVC is short - term volatile and long - term bearish; caustic soda is on hold in the short term and bearish in the medium term; on hold for arbitrage and options [29]. Polyolefin - **Market Review**: L2509 and PP2509 have different closing prices in the day - session and night - session. Spot prices in different regions have declined [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new capacity is being realized, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be short - term volatile and medium - term bearish [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term shocks, medium - term bearish; on hold for arbitrage and options [31]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The main 09 contract of soda ash futures has a certain closing price and spread. Spot prices vary by region [32]. - **Related News**: The inventory situation, market adjustment, and device maintenance information [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to decline [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cost decline, price decline; short soda ash and long glass; on hold for options [34][35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The main 09 contract of glass futures has a certain closing price and spread. Spot prices vary by region [35]. - **Related News**: The price change situation in different regions and the real - estate data [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production is expected to decline, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weak in shock [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Price is weak in shock; long glass and short soda ash; on hold for options [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures have declined, and spot prices are stable [38]. - **Related News**: The daily production and export - related information of urea [38][39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy changes [38][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term callback long, not chasing; 91 positive spread enters at low levels, not chasing; sell put options [40]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures have declined, and spot prices vary by region [40]. - **Related News**: The production status of international methanol devices [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply is high, the import is expected to increase, the domestic supply is loose, and it is mainly for rebound short - selling [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Rebound short - selling; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [43]. Log - **Market Review**: The main contract is in low - level shocks, and spot prices are stable [43][45]. - **Related News**: The pre - arrival ship and inventory information of ports [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to be stable in the short term but face challenges in the long term [45][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Spot is stable and slightly weak, on hold; for aggressive investors, long at the previous low; pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spread; on hold for options [47]. Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: The market is slightly declining, with different trends for high - white and natural - white paper [46]. - **Related News**: The supply and demand situation of the market [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak, the cost support is stable, and the demand is weak [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The market prices of corrugated and box - board paper have increased [48]. - **Related News**: The price increase plan of scale paper mills and the demand situation of downstream [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tariff adjustment is expected to drive the demand rebound, but attention should be paid to relevant factors [48][49]. Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures market is strong, and spot prices of different types of pulp have different trends [49]. - **Related News**: The production and sales data of the paper - making industry in 2024 [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: There are both positive and negative factors, and different data have different impacts on the single - side trading of SP [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for the main 07 contract of SP, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high; on hold for arbitrage [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: The prices of RU, JRU, NR, and TF have different changes, and spot prices are provided [51][52]. - **Related News**: The export data of Indonesian natural rubber [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import volume of domestic smoked - sheet rubber has increased, and the inventory situation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is provided [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the main 09 contract of RU, try short for the main 07 contract of NR; on hold for arbitrage and options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of the main 07 contract of BR has declined, and spot prices are provided [54]. - **Related News**: The IPO information of Zhongce Rubber [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory situation of domestic butadiene rubber and butadiene is provided [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for the main 07 contract of BR, pay attention to the support at the previous Friday low; hold the spread of BR2507 - NR2507, set the stop - loss at the previous Friday low; sell and hold the BR2507 put 11200 contract, set the stop - loss at the previous Friday high [56].

1、信用评级：穆迪下调美国信用评级，这一事件引发市场避险情绪升温，致使黄金在周一开盘后强势上涨。 2、经济数据：美国4月谘商会领先指标月率录得-1%，为2023年3月以来最大降幅。经济数据的不佳表现增加了市场对经济前景的担忧，促使投资者寻求避 险资产，黄金作为传统避险工具受到青睐，对金价上涨起到一定支撑作用。 黄金周一（5月19日）早盘小幅高开后上涨，最高触及3250附近后受阻走跌，到中午最低跌至3206附近后止跌上涨，欧盘最高上涨至3249附近。美盘初再次 受阻震荡下跌，日线收出一根带有上影线的小阳线。 一、基本面 在日线关键点位方面，上方需重点关注10日均线，当前该均线所处位置在3260附近，构成了短期价格上行的重要阻力位；如果能够强势上涨突破3290附近阻 力，这里是上周初跳空低点后反弹的高点位置附近，也是目前20日均线附近。而下方支撑位则重点聚焦于3154和3120两处关键价位，一旦被有效跌破，可能 引发价格进一步下行。 短周期，从市场结构层面分析，延续周末文章所提出的观点，当前仍需重点关注X浪的发展态势。在具体操作上，需密切留意上方3248这一关键阻力位的突 破情况。该点位是通过连接黄金自上周五高点 ...

Group 1 - Australia's Trade Minister Farrell emphasized the importance of China as a trading partner, stating that China is ten times more valuable than the U.S. in terms of trade, marking a significant shift from previous policies that favored the U.S. [1][3] - In the 2023-2024 fiscal year, Australia's exports to China reached AUD 210 billion, accounting for 38% of total exports, while exports to the U.S. were only AUD 37 billion, representing less than 7% [3][4] - The previous Morrison government adopted a confrontational stance towards China, which resulted in severe economic repercussions, including a 97% drop in wine exports to China due to high tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Australia is seeking to balance its economic relations between China and the U.S., participating in trade agreements like RCEP while maintaining military alliances with the U.S. [4][6] - The shift in Australia's strategy reflects a broader trend among U.S. allies reassessing the costs and benefits of aligning with U.S. policies against China, as seen in the economic impacts on the EU and Canada [6][7] - The global trade landscape is evolving, with China emerging as a key partner for many countries, prompting Australia to view its relationship with China as essential for economic stability [6][9] Group 3 - Future developments may include Australia implementing a "dual-track strategy" to diversify its trade markets while maintaining key exports to China [9][11] - The potential fragmentation of U.S. alliances could increase if the U.S. fails to provide substantial economic incentives, leading countries like the EU and Japan to seek closer ties with China [9][11] - China may leverage its growing influence to propose reforms in global trade rules, challenging the existing U.S.-led trade framework [9][11]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.5.16」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体上涨，近月合约EC2506、2508收涨33.31%、47.42%，远月合约收涨5-9%不等， 贸易战局势好转带动欧线近月合约大幅上涨。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1302.62，较上周回落76.45点，环比下 行5.5%。美国调整对华加征关税，于美东时间5月14日凌晨撤销对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，调整实施34%的对 等关税措施，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。但近期特朗普对于进口药物的声明预示后续关税的 不确定性仍存，结合《声明》中的90天时限，8月后远月合约始终面临着贸易战再度升级的可能性。我国外交部发言 人林剑表示，美方以芬太尼为借口对中国无理加征两轮关税，中方均第一时间采取包括关税和非关税措施在内的反制 举措，坚定维护自身正当权益。这些反 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 戴润芝 环球时报记者 李迅典】编者的话：5月7日，白宫发言人表示，美国财政部和商务 部已按照总统特朗普2月签署的行政令要求，在限期内制定了关于设立美国主权财富基金的计划，但其中部分内容遭 到白宫的拒绝，该计划短期内很难有显著进展。主权财富基金被一些媒体形容为"国家的超级理财账户"，是指由一国 政府控制和支配的、通常以外币形式持有的公共财富。在美国，关于联邦层面是否应该设立主权财富基金长期存在争 议，围绕美国政府究竟希望通过这笔资金达成什么目的也有不同的说法。有分析认为，在当下地缘政治紧张局势加剧 的背景下，美国要建立主权财富基金，不仅希望将其作为一个金融工具，而且对其赋予了与外交、产业政策和国家战 略有关的复杂意义。 " 巨大的潜力 "VS" 不完整的想法 " "我们有巨大的潜力，我认为在短时间内，我们将拥有世界最大的基金之一。"今年2月，美国总统特朗普重返白宫后 签署行政令，要求在联邦层面设立主权财富基金，并要求财政部和商务部在90天内提交相关计划。该命令还表明，这 份计划应包括对融资机制、投资策略、基金结构和治理模式的建议，同时需要评估设立和管理此类基金的法律问题。 美国财政部长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum (WEF), is facing serious allegations regarding the misuse of funds and a toxic workplace culture, leading to an internal investigation and his potential exit from the organization [1][2][3]. Group 1: Allegations and Investigations - The foundation's audit committee recommended investigating new allegations against Klaus Schwab and his wife, Hilde, regarding the improper mixing of personal finances with the nonprofit's accounts [1][2]. - Schwab sent a threatening email to the board's audit committee, demanding the retraction of the allegations and expressing concerns about the organization's future [1][2]. - The WEF's board has unanimously decided to initiate an independent investigation into the allegations, supported by Swiss regulatory authorities [3][4]. Group 2: Organizational Dynamics - Schwab has historically controlled the WEF's executive appointments and has been involved in the selection of board members, including royal and political figures [3][4]. - The organization generates approximately $500 million in annual revenue, primarily from corporate partnerships [4][5]. - There is a growing faction within the trust committee discussing the need for Schwab to designate a successor and initiate a power transition [6][7]. Group 3: Internal Conflicts and Management Changes - Schwab's management style has led to conflicts with his deputy, Børge Brende, and has complicated internal operations [6][7]. - Following the allegations, there have been discussions about personnel changes, particularly concerning Schwab's son, Olivier Schwab, who has been implicated in mishandling harassment complaints [11][12]. - The board has approved a restructuring plan, which includes significant changes to the management structure and the responsibilities of key executives [13][14]. Group 4: Public Perception and Response - The WEF has faced scrutiny from corporate partners regarding the allegations, prompting the board to form a committee to address the situation [9][16]. - Schwab has publicly defended his legacy and contributions, claiming that he has been recognized for his efforts in promoting economic development and reconciliation [10][18]. - The ongoing internal tensions and investigations have raised concerns about the effectiveness of the organization's governance and oversight [16][17].

小时图目前处于主跌情绪，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3177.00-3191.00，操作上可在这个区 间高抛低吸。 若后市市场下破3177.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3167.00-3157.00美元/盎司。 若后市市场上破3191.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3201.00-3211.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司 空间） 贸易战的缓和，以及地缘政治同样有缓和的迹象使得全球避险情绪大幅回落，昨日现货黄金市场再度大 幅下挫，昨日市场最低至3168.06美元/盎司，最终收盘于3177.40美元/盎司，本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后 市场有所反弹，当前交投于3185.00美元/盎司附近。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易谈判进展，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币 政策的动向。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于震荡，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间32.070-32.310，操作上可在这个区间 内高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破32.070美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为31.700- 31.300美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破32.31 ...

周二现货黄金市场有低位企稳迹象，周二晚间美国CPI数据弱于预期，使得美联储降息预期降温，美元指数从高位回落，黄金市场昨日最低至 3216.14美元/盎司，最高至3265.52美元/盎司，最终收盘于3249.98美元/盎司。 小时图目前处于低位震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3242.00-3258.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛低吸。 若后市市场下破3242.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3232.00-3222.00美元/盎司。 若后市市场上破3258.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3268.00-3278.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间32.510-32.990，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低吸。 若市场成功上破32.990美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及33.300-33.700美元/盎司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空 间） 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易谈判进展，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 若市场价格跌破3 ...

【环球时报驻埃及特派记者 黄培昭 环球时报特约记者 王逸】当地时间13日，美国总统特朗普抵达沙特首都利雅得，沙特王储亲自接机，这被美 联社视为"给予美国总统的罕见荣誉"。此后，特朗普还将访问阿联酋和卡塔尔。法新社13日称，这三个富裕的中东国家都将为特朗普举行盛大的 欢迎仪式，并签署国防、能源和人工智能等领域的大单。 据卡塔尔半岛电视台13日报道，特朗普抵达利雅得哈立德国王国际机场时，与前来迎接的沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼一起走过欢迎地毯，还在机 场会客室喝了传统的阿拉伯咖啡。报道称，美国领导人似乎非常享受这场盛大的仪式。 《华尔街日报》13日报道称，在此次出访前，美国政府一直试图促成加沙和平协议以及与伊朗达成新的核协议，并阻止也门胡塞武装对红海航线 的袭击，所有这些都是对海湾国家至关重要的问题。 尽管如此，白宫依然高调宣布，特朗普此行是"历史性重返中东"。半岛电视台13日报道称，特朗普第一任期的首次出访就是从沙特开始的。这次 他再次打破了美国新任总统国事访问首站通常为英国、加拿大或墨西哥的传统。法新社13日称，特朗普决定再次绕过西方传统盟友，访问石油资 源丰富的海湾国家，凸显这些国家在地缘政治中的关键作用。 ...

Group 1 - The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) experienced a significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping 7-8% over two consecutive days in early May, marking a historical volatility record that affected overall Asian currency fluctuations [1] - The Central Bank of Taiwan stated that the appreciation was not due to pressure from the US, but rather driven by exporters concentrating their foreign exchange settlements [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies are unlikely to sell off their US dollar assets in the short term, despite the pressure from TWD appreciation and rising hedging costs, as US Treasury bonds remain a scarce long-duration asset [1][5] Group 2 - The next potential focus for currency movements in Asia includes the TWD and Malaysian ringgit (MYR), which are expected to benefit from high dollar deposit ratios and strong export settlement potential [2] - The South Korean won (KRW) is anticipated to have room for appreciation due to its high correlation with USD/CNY amid a downward trend in both currencies [2] - The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to perform solidly in the long term, supported by diversified asset allocation by the central bank and its AAA credit rating [2] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan (CNY) is projected to remain stable with a slight strengthening trend, as policymakers prefer a stable exchange rate path despite tariff pressures and capital outflow risks [2] - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is expected to maintain a strong position within its linked exchange rate system, bolstered by robust southbound capital inflows and significant liquidity injections by the Monetary Authority [2] - The Indian rupee (INR) faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and potential foreign exchange reserve accumulation by the Reserve Bank of India, making it difficult to outperform other high-yield currencies in the short term [2] Group 4 - The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is considered undervalued, with expectations for a rebound due to manageable fiscal deficit risks and lower oil prices reducing subsidy expenditures [2]