Market Trends - On December 4, copper prices surged, with the main CU2601 contract reaching over 91,000 yuan/ton, a rise of approximately 2.7% from the previous closing price, closing at 90,980 yuan/ton, up 2.26% [1] - The spot market also saw significant increases, with the average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River reported at 91,260 yuan/ton, a jump of 2,110 yuan, and the Guangdong region's price at 91,270 yuan/ton, nearly 2,000 yuan higher [1] - LME data indicated a net cancellation of copper warehouse receipts in Asian warehouses of 50,725 tons, bringing the total registered warehouse receipts to the lowest level since July at 105,275 tons [1] Driving Forces Behind Copper Price Increase Macro Factors - The dollar index has fallen over 8% this year, with market expectations for another interest rate cut in December exceeding 84%, leading to a shift of funds from bonds and deposits to tangible assets like copper [4] - Copper is increasingly viewed as a "hard currency" during the interest rate cut cycle, becoming a new focal point for capital [4] Policy Factors - The U.S. initiated a "232 investigation" in February 2025, with expectations of tariffs on imported copper potentially reaching 25%, prompting a rush of over 540,000 tons of refined copper to the U.S. from March to May, equivalent to 60% of last year's total imports [5] - U.S. COMEX copper inventories surged to over 400,000 tons, a 300% increase from the end of last year, despite the U.S. only consuming 7% of global copper [5] Supply Factors - Major issues in copper mining include rising prices from Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, which quoted prices to Chinese buyers at 335-350 USD/ton for 2026, a 275% increase from 89 USD in 2025 [6] - Domestic smelters are planning production cuts due to low processing fees, with a consensus to reduce production by over 10% in 2026, equating to a loss of over 1 million tons of capacity [6] Demand Factors - The demand for copper is shifting from traditional sectors like real estate and home appliances to new energy and technology sectors, with electric vehicles using 3-4 times more copper than traditional cars [9] - Key drivers of copper demand include renewable energy projects, AI data centers, and global grid upgrades, indicating a robust long-term consumption outlook [9] Inventory Dynamics - The current copper market is characterized by a significant concentration of inventory in the U.S., with global stocks declining in China, Asia, and Europe [10] - Traders are withdrawing copper from LME warehouses in Asia to ship to the U.S. due to a price differential of 200-400 USD/ton, leading to tighter availability in non-U.S. markets [10] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the core drivers of copper prices from September to December are supply tightness and demand expectations, indicating that prices may become increasingly difficult to decrease [11] - The ongoing tight supply and strong demand fundamentals suggest that copper prices are likely to remain elevated, with potential for volatility due to market sentiment [12] - The anticipated reduction in copper production capacity and ongoing demand from new energy sectors are expected to keep the market dynamics favorable for price increases [15]

Group 1 - The 2025 Shandong Province Green Low-Carbon High-Quality Development Conference was held in Yantai, focusing on accelerating the establishment of a leading area for green low-carbon high-quality development [1][3] - During the investment promotion meeting, two key documents were released: "Key Characteristic Industry Map and Opportunity List for the Green Low-Carbon High-Quality Development Leading Area in Shandong Province (16 City Version)" and "Artificial Intelligence, New Materials, and New Energy Industry Map and Opportunity List" [1] - A total of 32 projects were signed on-site, with a total investment amount of approximately 57 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Shandong is a significant industrial base in China and a strategic support for economic development in the northern region, tasked with the mission of building a leading area for green low-carbon high-quality development [3] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of high-tech industries in the province has increased by 10.1 percentage points to 55.2%, with an average energy consumption growth of 4.1% supporting an average economic growth of 6.1% [3] - In the first three quarters of this year, the regional GDP grew by 5.6%, with the total economic volume approaching the milestone of 10 trillion yuan, marking a new phase in the construction of a modern strong province [3]

习近平：中法两国要抓住机遇，拓展合作空间，巩固航空、航天、核能等传统领域合作，挖掘绿色经济、数字经济、生物医药、人工智能、新能源等领域合作潜力。中方愿进口更多法国优质产品，欢迎更多法国企业来华发展，也希望法方为中国企业提供公平环境和稳定预期。中法两国人民有着天然亲近感，要深化文化、教育、科技、地方等领域交流合作，续写人文交流精彩篇章。马克龙表示，愿同中方促进相互投资，加强经贸、可再生能源等领域合作，促进友好文化交流。法方致力于推动欧中关系健康稳定发展，认为欧中应坚持对话合作，欧中应实现战略自主。面对世界地缘形势不稳、多边秩序受到冲击，法中合作更显重要，不可或缺。会谈后，两国元首共同见证签署核能、农食、教育、生态环境等领域多项合作文件。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):央视：12月4日上午，国家主席习近平在北京人民大会堂同来华进行国事访问的法国总统马克龙举行会谈。 ...

12月4日上午，国家主席习近平在北京人民大会堂同来华进行国事访问的法国总统马克龙举行会谈。 习近平指出，中法都是有远见、有担当的独立自主大国，是推动世界多极化、促进人类团结合作的建设性力 量。当前，百年变局加速演进，人类又一次站在何去何从的十字路口。中法两国应当展现责任担当，高举多边 主义旗帜，坚定站在历史正确一边。中方愿同法方一道，始终从两国人民根本利益和国际社会长远利益出发， 坚持平等对话、开放合作，让中法全面战略伙伴关系在"新甲子"走得更稳更好，充分彰显其战略价值，为推动 平等有序的世界多极化、普惠包容的经济全球化作出新的贡献。 习近平强调，无论外部环境如何变化，中法两国都应当始终展现大国的战略眼光和独立自主，在彼此核心利益 和重大关切问题上相互理解和支持，维护好中法关系的政治基础。中共二十届四中全会审议通过"十五五"规划 建议，为未来5年中国发展擘画蓝图，也向世界提供了一份"机遇清单"。中法两国要抓住机遇，拓展合作空 间，巩固航空、航天、核能等传统领域合作，挖掘绿色经济、数字经济、生物医药、人工智能、新能源等领域 合作潜力。中方愿进口更多法国优质产品，欢迎更多法国企业来华发展，也希望法方为中国企业提供 ...

来源：市场资讯 宏观流动性的宽松预期为铜价注入"金融属性动力"。截至12月4日，美国利率期货显示，市场对美联储 12月降息25个基点的概率已超80%。银河证券研报进一步指出，美联储年底或从"缩表"转为"扩表"，流 动性边际宽松将直接利好铜等大宗商品。 美元指数的持续走弱则放大涨势。今年以来美元指数已下跌8%，铜作为"以美元计价"的全球资产，吸 引力显著提升。默克投资创始人阿克塞尔・默克表示："投资者正通过铜、黄金等资产对冲美元购买力 下降风险，这也是近期工业金属与贵金属同步上涨的核心原因。" （来源：懒人财知道） 12月4日，工业金属市场的"铜市热度"持续发酵，沪铜主连早盘以90070元/吨开盘后，迅速开启冲高模 式，盘中最高触及91400元/吨，刷新前一日刚创下的历史新高。 国际市场上，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜延续涨势，日内涨2.1%报11520美元/吨，续创历史新 高；纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜价则站稳5.25美元/磅，较12月3日上涨1.8%。 为何持续冲高？三大核心逻辑共振，铜市进入"强驱动周期" 沪铜能在创历史新高后继续冲高，本质是"供应端收缩+宏观面宽松+需求端结构性增长"的三重逻辑 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 张驰宁 投资咨询号：Z0020302 国泰君安期货市场分析师 铜在昨夜创了新高，总结下来主要受以下几点因素影响： 1、ADP数据意外降低——降息预期升温——美元指数下滑； 2、矿产铜供应紧张： 核心矛盾在于加工费（TC）持续处于低位； 3、废铜供应偏紧； 4、长期驱动稳固：电网投资、新能源（光伏、风电）及算力中心等新兴领域对铜的消费驱动强劲。且 新兴行业对价格容忍度高，特别是在算力中心等投资中，原材料（铜）成本占比仅约1-2%，对铜价上 涨的敏感度低； 5、LME仓单紧张 ．．．．．． 全球铝供应增长仍然受限，市场长期处于"紧平衡"状态。关键风险点在于印尼产能，印尼凭借便宜的煤 电和铝土矿，正在规划相当一部分的低成本电解铝产能，但当前有确定性电力供应的产能投产规模或仍 相对可控，印尼新增供应提速仍存疑； 2、需求有想象空间： 在本轮冲高前，沪铜技术面已显现出企稳转强的积极信号。沪铜主力Cu2601合约在周一率先实现对前 期高点的实体上破，随后连续数个交易日稳立于该关键位置之上进行横盘整理，此举符合技术分析 中"真突破"成功率较高的特征。昨夜盘的 ...

12 月 A 股策略观点 - "策略周中谈"20251203 摘要 美联储降息预期波动和美元流动性收紧对市场产生影响，A 股受中美股 市联动影响，但强度偏弱，60 日均线构成阻力，市场情绪和量能指标显 示短期调整压力。 尽管短期市场面临调整，但长期慢牛格局判断不变，回调被视为布局机 会，半年线附近存在支撑，人民币强势和美元偏弱为 A 股长期走强奠定 基础。 12 月策略为择机布局，为跨年行情做准备，关注关键政策会议前市场调 整带来的介入时机，成交量缩至 1.3~1.6 万亿时是较好机会。 看好跨年行情，原因包括牛市状态下行情易发、机构对春季行情预期一 致、美联储大概率降息并停止缩表、十五开局之年政策期待增加等。 跨年行情中，看好电力设备、生物医药等科技成长板块，以及经济复苏 预期下的社服、食品饮料等消费板块，和有色、石油石化等顺周期板块， 以及国防军工等主题。 市场关注科技成长和资源品，科技成长领域关注 AI 应用、新能源（储能、 固态电池、核电）、创新药、机械设备、化工等板块，以及港股互联网 和商业航天。 新能源领域重点看好储能投资，包括正极、负极、电解液、隔膜、铜铝 箔等材料，以及六氟磷酸锂和 VC 等添 ...

2025年12月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：区间震荡，关注大厂复产实际进展 | 4 | | 工业硅：偏弱运行为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注消息面发酵情况 | 6 | 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 04 日 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 117,870 | -180 | 610 | 2,220 | -3,080 | ...

Group 1 - A-shares opened slightly higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.02%, and ChiNext Index up 0.01% [1] - Sectors such as robotics and non-ferrous metals showed strong performance [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlighted strong investment enthusiasm in energy storage, with planned investment projects in Inner Mongolia expected to double compared to this year [2] - The demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing due to high load growth and the ongoing development of renewable energy [2] - Battery materials, including cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, and separators, are anticipated to see sustained price increases, with a positive outlook for battery and integration segments [2] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities noted strong bottom-line support for the cement industry, with over 85% of clinker lines in northern provinces currently offline due to winter production restrictions [3] - The cement industry is expected to see a significant reduction in production capacity, with a total of 5,250 million tons of new capacity being added and 8,359 million tons of capacity being exited by November [3] - The effects of production capacity governance in the cement sector are expected to become evident by 2026 [3] Group 4 - Huatai Securities projected a steady recovery in domestic demand, driven by ongoing consumption policies and structural growth opportunities in the consumer sector [4] - The report emphasized four key investment themes for 2026: the rise of domestic brands, technology-driven consumption, emotional consumption, and undervalued high-dividend blue-chip leaders [4] - New consumer segments such as trendy toys, beauty and personal care, and ready-to-drink beverages are expected to emerge as strong growth areas [4]

Group 1: Copper Supply Disruptions - Global copper supply has been disrupted in 2023 due to various factors, including Indonesia's suspension of copper concentrate exports and Freeport's production cuts, leading to a decrease in international copper concentrate supply [1] - The Kamoa copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has reduced its annual output by approximately 150,000 tons due to seismic activity, exacerbating supply tightness [1] - Significant production halts occurred at Chile's El Teniente mine and Freeport's Grasberg mine, with the latter not expected to return to pre-accident production levels until 2027 [1] Group 2: Copper Processing Fees and Production Outlook - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) has entered negative territory and has been declining, remaining around -40 USD/ton since May, indicating potential losses for smelters when TC falls below 20 USD/ton [2] - Global copper production growth is expected to slow significantly in 2026, with a forecasted growth rate of only 0.9%, down from 3.4% in 2025, as the market shifts from surplus to shortage [2] Group 3: China's Copper Demand and Imports - Despite a significant increase in refined copper production in China, the country continues to import large quantities of refined copper, scrap copper, and copper products to meet domestic demand [3] - China's refined copper imports from January to October 2025 were 4.46 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while scrap copper imports increased by 1.99% [3] - China's manufacturing sector is projected to account for 35% of global manufacturing value added by 2025, with copper consumption expected to rise, particularly in the context of increasing overseas demand [3] Group 4: Growth in Energy Storage and New Energy Sectors - The global energy storage system (ESS) market is experiencing robust growth, with a 99% year-on-year increase in battery shipments in the first ten months of 2025 [4] - China's domestic demand for ESS is strong, with exports growing over 140%, positioning the country as a key driver of global ESS market growth [4] - The renewable energy sector, including solar and wind power, is expected to see significant growth, further driving copper demand [4] Group 5: Domestic Market Dynamics - Despite a 14.7% year-on-year decline in real estate investment in China, investments in power generation and grid projects have increased, helping to maintain demand for copper [5] - The production of new energy vehicles in China surged by 28.1% in the first ten months of 2025, indicating strong growth in sectors that consume copper [5] - Overall, global copper production is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with limited growth expected in the following year due to various supply constraints [5] Group 6: Future Supply Gaps and Price Expectations - Countries are preparing to restrict scrap copper exports, which may further tighten domestic copper supply in China [6] - The global copper market is expected to face a supply gap of 150,000 tons in 2026, with UBS projecting a supply shortfall of 230,000 tons in 2025 and 407,000 tons in 2026, indicating a worsening supply-demand imbalance [6] - As a result of these factors, copper prices are anticipated to remain strong in 2026 [6]