对于高科技公司而言，这是特大利好消息，苹果、英伟达、微软等科技公司终于可以长舒一 口气。美国政府不再大肆渲染新关税政策，而是悄然修改海关实施细则，以避免不必要的尴 尬与损面子，也给自己找个台阶下。与当初的高调相比，美国政府在现实面前不得不暗暗低 头。 话又说回来，美国政府发动的这次全球贸易战让其国家信誉扫地，成为真正的"孤家寡人"。 被国内经济困难逼疯了的美国政府欲通过关税不分亲疏、不分远近、不分贫富、无差别地敲 诈勒索其他国家和地区，以缓解巨额财政赤字压力。这种赤裸裸的经济霸凌行径让世界其他 国家和地区政府和民众深感被背叛、被交易、被羞辱的耻辱，促使他们寻求新的出路。有不 少人士认为，被特朗普总统称为"解放日"的2 0 2 5年4月3日可以载入史册，与1 9 7 1年布雷顿森 林体系崩溃一样成为国际经济史上的里程碑事件。 美国制造业回流不现实 作 者丨王应贵 田硕 编 辑丨和佳 图 源丨图虫 最 近 几 任 美 国 总 统 总 是 担 心 经 济 " 空 心 化 " ， 因 此 试 图 让 美 国 的 跨 国 公 司 把 生 产 设 施 搬 回 国 内，让"铁锈地带"恢复昔日生机，为美国社会创造高薪工作。然 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the global financial market is highly volatile due to the trade war. The enhanced expectation of a global economic recession and the sharp decline in crude oil prices exert significant pressure on the futures prices of oils and fats. The main short - term influencing factor is trade - war policies, but the probability of further escalation is low. In the long - term, the global supply - demand relationship determines the trend of oils and fats. The Malaysian palm oil report is neutral, and the USDA report is basically neutral. There is a high probability of wide - range fluctuations in the prices of the three major domestic oils and fats [9][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday, the global financial market was highly volatile, and the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. For the whole week, the Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 2.71% to close at 7,680 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 4.48% to close at 8,196 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 2.28% to close at 9,354 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: On April 10, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in March was 1,387,193 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%. Exports were 1,005,547 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%. Imports were 121,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%. Inventories were 1,562,586 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 2.66% [7][31]. - **Soybean oil**: The USDA's April supply - demand report showed that the estimated soybean production in the US for the 2024/25 season was 4.366 billion bushels, and the estimated year - end inventory was 375 million bushels. The global soybean production in the 2024/25 season was estimated at 420.58 million tons, and the global ending soybean inventory was 122.47 million tons. US soybeans rose 7.78% this week [7]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of April 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 59,000 tons to 897,000 tons. On April 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 357,000 tons [17]. - As of April 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,273,590 tons [22]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 360 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 502 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 40 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday, affected by the trade war triggered by the US imposing tariffs globally, the global financial market was highly volatile, and the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The weekly performance of the contracts was consistent with the abstract. The Malaysian palm oil data and the US soybean data were also consistent with the important information section [31]. - The short - term and long - term influencing factors of oils and fats prices are consistent with the core view [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's fluctuating tariffs on China, highlighting the resilience and adaptability of Chinese export-oriented companies in the face of these challenges [2][4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. government recently raised tariffs on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 125%, but subsequently exempted certain electronic products from these tariffs [2]. - Since the onset of the trade war, China's exports to the U.S. have decreased from 19.2% of total exports in 2018 to an estimated 14.7% in 2024, while U.S. investments in China have reached a record high of $1.27 trillion [4]. Group 2: Company Responses - Companies are not panicking but are instead strategizing their next steps, indicating a shift in mindset after eight years of trade conflict [4][14]. - Many companies plan to expand their business into non-U.S. markets, particularly in Europe and other emerging markets, to mitigate the impact of tariffs [8][12]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - Despite the high tariffs, some U.S. clients continue to place orders, demonstrating confidence in Chinese products and the competitive advantages they offer [4]. - Companies are exploring new markets and adapting their strategies to meet local consumer demands and cultural preferences in regions such as Europe, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa [8][10]. Group 4: Logistics and Supply Chain Adjustments - Logistics companies are adjusting their operations to follow client needs, indicating a proactive approach to changing market dynamics [10]. - Companies like 华夏物流 have already begun expanding their logistics networks in response to geopolitical changes, focusing on regions like Europe [11]. Group 5: Long-term Strategies - Companies are considering long-term strategies such as price adjustments, shifting supply chains, and increasing sales in alternative markets to counteract the effects of tariffs [11][12]. - The sentiment among many business leaders is one of resilience, with a belief that innovative solutions will emerge from the current challenges [13][14].

Group 1 - The ongoing trade war under President Trump has led to a significant sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries, resulting in one of the best performances for a popular trading strategy in the bond market [1] - The yield spread between 30-year and 2-year Treasuries has widened for nine consecutive weeks, reaching its highest level since 2022, benefiting asset management firms like DoubleLine [1] - Market speculation regarding tax cuts potentially exacerbating the U.S. deficit is contributing to the declining attractiveness of long-term Treasuries, while short-term Treasuries are outperforming due to economic concerns and expectations of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The large-scale sell-off of long-term Treasuries is also attributed to hedge funds unwinding leveraged trades and banks selling bonds to meet liquidity demands [2] - There are rumors on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve may need to intervene if the bond market continues to deteriorate, with Boston Fed President Collins stating the Fed is "absolutely" prepared to stabilize the market if necessary [2] - The strategy of betting on a steepening yield curve may face challenges amid market volatility, as the yield curve between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries saw a significant pullback recently [2] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring fiscal negotiations, as any signs of larger deficit plans would negatively impact demand for Treasuries due to worsening supply-demand conditions [3] - Upcoming auctions, such as the $13 billion 20-year Treasury auction, will be a critical test of investor sentiment following a positive response to recent 10-year and 30-year Treasury issuances [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has indicated that the Fed will not rush to respond to the Trump administration's tariff policies, while New York Fed President Williams expects economic growth to slow and unemployment to rise due to these policies [3]

高盛：在贸易战之际，石油市场面临"大量供应过剩"。 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（4月11日）再度收涨，开盘价3158.03美元/盎司，最高价3244.28美元/盎司，最低价3151.53美元/ 盎司，收盘价3240.44美元/盎司。 消息面： 周五公布的美国4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得50.8，低于市场预期54.5，前值为57；美国3月PPI年率 鹿的2.7%，低于市场预期3.3%，前值为3.2%；美国3月PPI月率录得-0.4%，低于市场预期0.2%，前值为 0.00%。 评论称，美国4月消费者信心急剧恶化，12个月通胀预期飙升至1981年以来最高水平，因贸易紧张局势升级令 人不安。消费者调查中心主任Joanne Hsu说："这种下降在各年龄、收入、教育、地理区域和政治派别中普遍存 在，而且是一致的。""消费者报告了多种警告信号，增加了经济衰退的风险：对商业状况、个人财务状况、收 入、通胀和劳动力市场的预期本月都继续恶化。" 美联储卡什卡利周五表示，最近的市场趋势显示，在特朗普的贸易战升级之际，投资者正在离开美国这个最安 全的投资地点。他表示，最近几天，随着美国国债收益率上升，美元兑全球货币贬值，趋势与你通常看到的相 反。"通常情况下，当你看到大幅提高 ...

烧碱：基本面承压，关注限仓因素 PVC：低位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年4月13日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱：基本面承压，关注限仓因素 ◆ 主要观点： Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ 宏观变动较大，贸易战加剧不确定性。基本面，烧碱驱动向下，氯碱利润被持续压缩。交易层面，烧碱四月第16 个日历日面临限仓，空头持仓更集中，存在止盈意愿，因此低位追空需谨慎。 ◆ 供需层面，氧化铝低利润，氧化铝供应端存减少预期，叠加其原料烧碱库存高，持续降低采购价。烧碱虽然有部 分装置检修，4月份也仍然存在新增检修，但由于利润尚可，厂家负荷普遍处于高位。现货的降价预 ...

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - President Trump's decision to impose sweeping tariffs has led to one of the worst quarters for the U.S. stock market in years, raising concerns about the overall economic impact [1] - The retaliatory actions from other countries in response to these tariffs are expected to further affect the economy [1] Group 2: Netflix - Netflix's business model is somewhat insulated from tariffs as it generates most of its revenue from subscriptions rather than physical products [3] - The company may still face challenges if an economic slowdown leads to reduced advertising budgets, impacting its ad-supported subscription tier [4] - Despite potential subscriber losses during a recession, Netflix is well-positioned for long-term growth due to its strong revenue, earnings, and free cash flow [5] - Netflix has an addressable market of $650 billion, of which it has captured only 6%, indicating significant growth potential [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing shift from linear TV to streaming, making it a strong buy-and-hold option [7] Group 3: Visa - Visa operates as a leading provider of financial services, facilitating digital transactions without issuing credit cards or providing loans, which reduces its exposure to borrower defaults during recessions [8][9] - The potential for higher inflation due to tariffs could benefit Visa, as its fees are a small percentage of transactions, leading to increased revenues with higher spending [10] - Visa's long-term prospects are strong due to the shift away from cash and checks, supported by a network effect that enhances its attractiveness to both consumers and businesses [11] - The company has increased its dividend payouts by approximately 392% over the past decade, indicating a reliable income stream for investors [12]

2025.04. 13 微信编辑 | 小羊 推荐阅读 时隔7日，小米SU7再现交通事故！ 据俄罗斯卫星社网站4月13日报道，美国总统特使理查德·格雷内尔表示，特朗普认为与中国进行谈 判，从而找到摆脱贸易对峙局面的出路至关重要。 据报道，格雷内尔在福克斯新闻频道的节目中说，特朗普是 "谈判大师，但要谈判就必须对话"。此 外，格雷内尔坚信，特朗普"相信和平协议"。他在节目中说："我们刚刚摆脱了（前总统）拜登三年 多不与（俄罗斯领导人）普京对话的局面。" 特朗普此前签署了关于对从其他国家进口商品征收所谓"对等关税"的行政令，并多次提高税率。 针对美国所谓"对等关税"，中国陆续发布多项反制措施。4月11日，中国国务院关税税则委员会发布 公告称，自4月12日起，对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率由84%提高至125%。并指出，鉴于在 目前关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税， 中方将不予理会。 对于美加征关税问题，中国外交部发言人表示，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，中方不愿打，但也不怕 打。如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止极限施压、胡作非为。任何对话都必须建立 在平 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the implications of Trump's tariff policies, which are seen as a double-edged sword that may exacerbate existing economic issues in the U.S. rather than resolve them [1][3][10] - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are intended as a tool for "America First," but the fundamental economic principles remain unchanged, leading to potential negative consequences for the U.S. economy [2][4] - The agricultural and manufacturing sectors in the U.S. are particularly affected, facing rising costs and decreased competitiveness due to the tariffs [2][4] Group 2 - There is significant internal dissent within the U.S. regarding Trump's tariff policies, with even members of his cabinet expressing doubts and considering resignation [4][6] - The tariffs impose an invisible tax burden on American consumers, who end up paying higher prices for everyday goods, contradicting the intended protective measures for American citizens [4][6] - Protests against the tariff policies have erupted across the U.S., indicating widespread public dissatisfaction and unrest [6] Group 3 - Trump's approach to trade negotiations, including the intention to isolate China, reflects a strategy of power politics that may undermine America's international standing and alienate allies [7][12] - China's response emphasizes respect, dialogue, and cooperation as effective means to resolve differences, countering Trump's aggressive tactics [9][12] - The ongoing trade conflict is characterized as a test of economic strength, strategic wisdom, and political endurance, with uncertain outcomes for both the U.S. and China [10][12]