光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.1 元/桶， | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加，在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际，这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上，决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周，美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶，至 4.384 亿桶，此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices. For gold in general, the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic includes a rapid rebound in futures prices this week indicating strong long - position support, geopolitical tensions in the India - Pakistan conflict which are positive for gold prices, and the Fed's concerns about the economic situation after the May interest - rate meeting [1][3]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is "decline", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" because of a strong upstream nickel ore market and a weak downstream stainless - steel market. For nickel in general, the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic involves the overall pressure on non - ferrous metals after the holiday, strong supply at the industrial level with increased supply costs due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, weak demand with slow inventory reduction of stainless steel at a high level, and technical pressure on nickel prices [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "wait - and - see" [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: This week, the rapid rebound of futures prices shows strong long - position support. The escalation of the India - Pakistan conflict is positive for gold prices. After the Fed's May interest - rate meeting, the Fed maintained the interest rate, expressed concerns about the economic situation, and pointed out increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation. Technically, pay attention to the 3400 mark for London gold and the 800 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is "decline", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "wait - and - see" [1][4]. - **Core Logic**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated during the day yesterday and opened lower at night, breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. After the holiday, non - ferrous metals were under pressure, and nickel followed the downward trend. At the industrial level, supply is strong with increased supply costs due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, while demand is weak with slow inventory reduction of stainless steel at a high level and strong expectations of production cuts. Technically, after the holiday, nickel prices faced technical pressure when rebounding to the 125,000 - yuan level, and pay attention to the low - point support in December last year [4].

一、行情回顾 市场全天高开回落，深成指、创业板指午后一度翻绿。军工板块集体爆发，晨曦航空、航天长峰、成飞集成、利君股份等近20股涨停。化工股再度走强，阳 煤化工、湖北宜化、中毅达、丹化科技等涨停。地产股盘中拉升，天保基建、三湘印象涨停。下跌方面，创新药概念走低，百济神州跌近8%。个股涨多跌 少，沪深京三市超3200股飘红，今日成交1.51万亿。 二、当日热点 1.军工 军工板块今日大涨，润贝航科、航天长峰、华伍股份等多股涨停。 据央视新闻7日报道，巴基斯坦与印度在巴控克什米尔发生交火。 | 股票名称 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = | 涨停时间 = | 换手率 = | 流通市值 = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 润贝航科 | 12天7板 | 47.26 | +10.01% | 09:35:33 | 13.65% | 12.86亿 | 公司为主要航空公 | | 001316.SZ | | | | | | | 重要航材分销商， | | 航天长峰 | | | | | | | 公司的研究项目中 现、识别异常目标 | | 600855 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% to 3316.11 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.84% and the ChiNext Index gained 1.97%[1] - The Hang Seng Index climbed 0.7% to 22662.71 points, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.37%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong reached 213.4 billion HKD[1] Trade Negotiations - High-level trade talks between the U.S. and China are set to begin this weekend, marking the first confirmed negotiations since the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration[8] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen and Trade Representative Jamison Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland[12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.95%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 0.77% to 5606.91 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.87%[1] - The European stock indices showed mixed results, with no clear trend established[1] Financial Policies - The People's Bank of China and other financial regulators are scheduled to hold a press conference to discuss measures aimed at stabilizing the market[1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，3月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%， 比上月上升0.3个百分点，制造业景气水平继续回升；中性。 2、基差：现货78210，基差610，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：5月6日铜库存减1675至195625吨，上期所铜库存较上周减27446吨至89307吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向下运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，关税情绪或有所好转，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 每日汇总 现货 地方 中间价 涨跌 库存 ...

市场由此对世界两大经济体达成协议充满乐观预期。不过，中方明确表示，不会为达成协议而牺牲原则 立场和国际公平。受此影响，美元对多数主要货币汇率上涨。 在南亚地区，巴基斯坦称击落五架印度战机，并俘虏多名印度士兵，以此回应印度周三早些时候发动的 军事打击。通常情况下，两个拥核邻国之间爆发战争的可能性会推动黄金价格上涨，但在当前阶段，贸 易谈判带来的乐观情绪抵消了由此产生的避险需求。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管印巴军事冲突不断升级，但中美贸易谈判传来积极信号，市场避险情绪骤减， 黄金价格随之暴跌，终结了此前连续两日的涨势。 在过去两个交易日累计飙升近6%后，现货黄金价格当日跌幅一度高达1.6%。自唐纳德·特朗普总统对中 国加征大规模关税以来，中美两国将首次展开谈判。5月7日早，中国外交部发布消息，何立峰副总理将 于5月9日—12日访问瑞士，期间将与美方牵头人美国财长贝森特举行会谈。 今年以来，受特朗普激进的贸易政策和地缘政治举措冲击，市场陷入剧烈动荡，投资者纷纷涌入黄金市 场避险，推动金价累计飙升近30%。4月，黄金价格更是触及每盎司3500美元以上的历史高位，不过在 最近几周有所回落。此外，中国市场的投机性需求以及各 ...

Core Viewpoint - The statements made by U.S. President Trump regarding free passage for American ships through the Panama and Suez Canals highlight the strategic and economic significance of the Suez Canal, which is a vital international shipping route connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa [1][2][3]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of the Suez Canal - The Suez Canal is a crucial maritime route located in Egypt, stretching 193 kilometers and connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, facilitating global trade and energy security [3][4]. - Approximately 12%-15% of global trade and about 30% of container shipping pass through the Suez Canal, with an annual cargo value exceeding $1 trillion [4]. - The canal handles around 9% of global maritime oil and 8% of liquefied natural gas, with daily traffic of 50-60 vessels carrying goods valued between $3 billion to $9 billion [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Revenue - The Suez Canal Authority projected a revenue of $4 billion for 2024, significantly lower than the historical peak of $10.3 billion in 2023, with a 50% decrease in the number of vessels passing through compared to the previous year [5]. - The canal's revenue, along with tourism and remittances, has been a major source of foreign exchange for Egypt [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Trump's demands reflect a broader U.S. strategy to exert influence over key global trade routes, with historical precedents of geopolitical conflicts surrounding the Suez Canal [6][8]. - The canal's nationalization by Egypt in 1956 marked a significant moment in the country's anti-colonial struggle, reinforcing its sovereignty over this vital waterway [10][11]. Group 4: Reactions and Implications - Trump's proposal has sparked widespread anger among Egyptians, who view it as an infringement on national sovereignty and a challenge to their historical rights over the canal [10][12]. - Legal experts emphasize that the demand for free passage contradicts principles of national sovereignty and international law, asserting Egypt's right to charge fees for passage through the canal [11].

Market Overview - US stock market opened with declines, with Dow Jones down 0.75%, S&P 500 down 0.97%, and Nasdaq down 0.74% [1] - By 11:10 PM, Dow Jones narrowed its decline to 0.35%, S&P 500 down 0.37%, and Nasdaq down 0.54% [1] Technology Sector Performance - Among the seven major US tech companies, only Apple saw a slight increase of 0.08%, while others experienced declines [3] - Tesla and Nvidia both dropped over 2%, while Facebook and Google fell more than 1.5% [3] - Microsoft and Amazon decreased by 0.56% and 0.91% respectively [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.22% [4] - ZTO Express rose over 2%, while Alibaba, Tencent Music, and Baidu Group all increased by over 1% [4][5] Gold Market Insights - Key factors supporting gold prices include ongoing geopolitical tensions, central banks increasing gold holdings, and excess global liquidity [7] - Technical analysis suggests a potential price rally if gold finds support at the 20-day moving average [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - OPEC+ has announced an aggressive production increase of 410,000 barrels per day for June, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices falling by 6.7% and 7.6% respectively as of May 2, 2025 [1][9][10] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the pressure from the U.S. on Iran's oil sales, continues to provide some support for oil prices despite the increase in supply [2][14] - The IEA has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 down to 730,000 barrels per day, indicating a slowdown in demand growth compared to previous estimates [3][14] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil supply by 410,000 barrels per day in June, with concerns about compliance from member countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan [1][10] - The actual production increase may be lower than planned due to potential agreements on overproduction compensation [1][10] Geopolitical Factors - U.S. President Trump has intensified pressure on countries purchasing Iranian oil, threatening secondary sanctions, which adds uncertainty to the oil market [2][14] Oil Demand Forecast - The IEA's April report predicts a growth of 730,000 barrels per day in global oil demand for 2025, a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day from previous forecasts [3][14] - The report also anticipates a further slowdown in demand growth to 690,000 barrels per day in 2026 [3][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for major Chinese oil companies and the oil service sector, as well as downstream refining enterprises benefiting from lower energy prices [4] - Specific companies to watch include China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, CNOOC, and various petrochemical and coal chemical leaders [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q1, driven by effective efficiency measures and solid business fundamentals, with positive contributions from various business segments [1][2]. Group 1: Q1 Performance - The Catalytic Business Group showed strong results, particularly in automotive catalysts, benefiting from its market position and customer coverage [1]. - The Recovery Business Group also performed well, with rising prices of precious metals enhancing the performance of precious metal refining and management businesses [1]. - Demand for gold and silver as safe-haven investments supported the jewelry and industrial metals sectors amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Group 2: Special Materials and Battery Solutions - The Special Materials Business Group's overall performance met expectations, with the Battery Materials Solutions Group also aligning with forecasts [2]. Group 3: Impact of US Tariff Policy - The new US tariff policy, effective from April, is expected to have limited direct impact on the company's operations by 2025, thanks to customer contract structures and a flexible global supply chain [3]. Group 4: 2025 Outlook - The company confirmed its 2025 outlook, projecting adjusted EBITDA to be between €720 million and €780 million, assuming stable metal prices and no significant new developments [4].