Group 1 - The COMEX gold price is currently at $3344.90 per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.15% with a high of $3354.80 and a low of $3337.20 [1][3] - Economic uncertainty is heightened due to President Trump's cancellation of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for over 380,000 individuals, with an expected impact on employment [3] - UBS economists predict that the TPS-related layoffs could lead to a reduction of approximately 5,000 jobs in June, contributing to a lower non-farm employment increase forecast of 85,000 jobs [3] Group 2 - The 90-day tariff suspension implemented by the Trump administration is set to expire on July 9, adding to economic uncertainty [3] - A Kansas City Fed survey indicates that about 25% of surveyed companies have reduced hiring, and 21% have conducted layoffs due to economic conditions [3] - Short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified between $3380 and $3390, while support levels are between $3230 and $3240 [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand stated that concerns regarding political uncertainty have not increased and should not impact government spending and trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Governor emphasized that the current political landscape does not pose heightened risks to economic stability [1] - Government spending is expected to remain unaffected by political uncertainties, indicating a stable fiscal environment [1] - Trade negotiations are also anticipated to proceed without disruption, reflecting confidence in ongoing economic policies [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices are stabilizing after two days of rebound, hovering below a one-week high, influenced by a slight recovery in the dollar and improved market risk appetite, but limited by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and trade uncertainties [1] - The international gold market shows a bullish sentiment with a long upper shadow in the monthly candlestick, indicating significant selling pressure above, while the market is closely watching for U.S. data and comments from President Trump regarding rate cuts [2] - Short-term resistance for gold is identified in the 3355-3360 range, with potential upward targets of 3375-3380 and 3400, while support is seen at the 3315 level, below which further declines could occur [4] Group 2 - The domestic gold market, including Shanghai gold and other products, has seen a recent increase, with significant profits noted from previous bottom-buying strategies, although a temporary pullback is expected [4] - Support levels for Shanghai gold are around 775, while for other products, it is at 766, with expectations of continued upward movement after the current adjustment phase [4] - The overall bullish trend remains intact, with targets set at 795 for Shanghai gold and 790 for other products, indicating a need for patience among investors [4]

Group 1 - The Thai political turmoil has provided a temporary respite for the market, but underlying economic concerns continue to make investors cautious [1] - The SET index has seen a year-to-date decline of over 20%, making it one of the worst-performing stock markets globally [1] - The Thai economy is facing three main pressures: unresolved trade negotiations with the U.S., delays in the new fiscal budget and economic stimulus plans, and a significant drop in foreign tourist numbers [1][4] Group 2 - As of June, foreign institutional investors have net sold Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total withdrawal of $3.9 billion [4] - The exit of the second-largest ruling party from the coalition government has led to further capital outflows from the Thai bond market, totaling $324 million [4] - Despite a potential valuation opportunity with the SET index trading at a 24.5% discount to its five-year average P/E ratio of 11.7, professional institutions remain cautious due to the dual pressures of political chaos and economic weakness [4] Group 3 - The Thai baht has shown signs of weakness against the U.S. dollar, indicating that market sentiment has not fundamentally improved [5] - The ongoing political deadlock and the need for structural reforms are likely to keep Thailand's economy in a state of uncertainty [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. automotive market is experiencing a significant slowdown after a brief sales peak, with June new vehicle retail sales expected to hit a one-year low, indicating the end of the "tariff panic" buying spree [1] - In March and April, U.S. consumers rushed to purchase vehicles to avoid potential cost increases, resulting in an additional 173,000 vehicles sold, marking the highest growth in recent years [1] - From mid-May onwards, market demand has noticeably weakened, with June projected to be one of the worst-performing months in the past year [1] Group 2 - Different brands are showing varied performance amidst the overall sales slowdown, with Kia's second-quarter sales up approximately 5% and Ford achieving double-digit growth [2] - Luxury brands and niche models are losing market share as consumers shift towards more cost-effective mainstream brands [2] - Despite the implementation of tariff policies, new vehicle prices have not yet seen a direct increase, although Ford, Subaru, and Toyota have announced price hikes for certain models [2] Group 3 - The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. reached $46,233 in June 2025, an increase of $1,400 compared to the same period last year [2] - Supply chain disruptions, particularly for critical components like rare earth magnets used in electric and hybrid vehicles, could further elevate market prices if not addressed [2] - The automotive industry faces a challenging outlook due to the cumulative effects of tariff policies, economic uncertainty, and rising purchase costs, making the upcoming months crucial for assessing the impact of these changes [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 Conference on FinTech Advances in Emerging Markets successfully concluded at The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), focusing on the latest research and discussions in the fintech sector [1] - The conference aimed to create a platform for academia and industry to explore innovative paths and development opportunities for fintech in emerging markets [1] Group 2 - Professor Zhang Bohui welcomed attendees and highlighted the strong development trends in financial innovation in emerging markets like China, India, and Africa over the past decade [5] - Financial technology has become a key engine for local economic development and has the potential to reshape traditional financial landscapes [5] Group 3 - Professor Jerry Parwada emphasized the international attention on fintech research and its potential impact on both emerging and developed markets [8] - He expressed hope for continued collaboration among experts to enhance academic networks in the fintech field [8] Group 4 - Professor Xiong Wei presented research on the role of structured beliefs in fund investment, indicating that fund managers' market expectations significantly predict market returns [11] - The study introduced a "Countercyclical Policy Beliefs" indicator, showing that these beliefs enhance predictive power and improve fund performance [11] Group 5 - Research by Professor Xiang Li revealed differences in how large tech companies and traditional banks respond to monetary policy changes when lending to small businesses [14] - The study found that large tech lenders are more proactive in establishing new lending relationships during monetary easing periods [14] Group 6 - Han Qiu's research indicated that the inclusion of Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) lenders in credit reporting significantly reduced consumer usage frequency, particularly among borrowers with prior defaults [17] - The findings suggest that information sharing can effectively curb excessive borrowing and spending [17] Group 7 - Dan Su's research demonstrated that personal environmental behaviors can be incentivized through credit mechanisms on platforms like Alipay, generating significant green value [21] - The study estimated that this linkage creates an annual green value of $427.5 million [21] Group 8 - Lei Chen's research showed that the credit business of large tech companies complements their core operations, enhancing consumer behavior and operational stability [25] - The study found no evidence of credit leading to conspicuous consumption, indicating a low default rate compared to traditional credit cards [25] Group 9 - Jiasun Li's research established a significant positive correlation between inflation expectations and individual cryptocurrency purchasing behavior in India [29] - The study provided direct evidence of households using cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation [29] Group 10 - Mikael Paaso's research highlighted the spillover effects of introducing new financial products on consumer attitudes towards existing products, indicating a shift in preferences towards mobile money services [34] - This research provides experimental evidence of the unintended cognitive consequences of financial inclusion policies [34] Group 11 - Qi Sun's research indicated that e-commerce platform merchants face advertising and customer capital accumulation challenges due to financing constraints [42] - The study found that alleviating credit constraints significantly boosts advertising spending and sales [42] Group 12 - Chenbin Mao's research on Revenue-Based Financing (RBF) revealed that while RBF expands capital access for small businesses, it also presents significant revenue recovery challenges for investors [46] - The study highlighted the need for optimizing contract design to mitigate moral hazard issues [46] Group 13 - The conference provided valuable networking opportunities for experts in the fintech field and injected new momentum into the innovative development of fintech in emerging markets [48] - The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) aims to promote deep collaboration between academia and industry in the fintech sector for sustainable development [48]

分析师们指出，在2025年前六个月，黄金价格上涨了近25%。"近期的价格上涨是由在政策高度不确定 和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下强劲的需求所驱动。2025年第一季度，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF） 的资金流入急剧回升，将投资需求推至2022年以来的最高水平。央行的购买继续提供支撑，反映了其储 备管理策略。" 作者们写道，预计近期强劲的需求将持续，受全球不确定性和地缘政治风险高企的支撑，"预计2025年 黄金价格将上涨约35%（同比），然后在2026年温和回落，因为一些普遍存在的不确定性开始减 退，"他们说。"尽管如此，预计到2025-26年，黄金价格仍将远高于历史常规水平——比2015-19年的平 均水平高出约150%。前景风险偏向上行，地缘政治发展预计仍将是不确定性的主要来源。" 白银也保持了其2024年的强劲势头，在2025年上半年上涨了近20%。"尽管白银价格涨幅强劲，但金银 比在2025年初进一步攀升，高于其10年平均水平，延续了其稳步上升的趋势，"他们指出。"这部分反映 了在不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下，黄金作为避险资产的相对需求更强。" 展望未来，世界银行预计白银需求将保持强劲，这得益于这 ...

近期，美国化学理事会(ACC)在分析美国化学工业前景时表示，贸易政策摇摆不定和终端需求不明确对 美国化学工业已造成显著影响。ACC预计，今年美国化学品产量(不包括药品)仅增长0.3%，预计2026年 将收缩0.2%。ACC同时还预计，2025年美国国内生产总值将增长1.3%，远低于今年年初作出的2.7%增 长预测。 ACC仍然"谨慎乐观"地认为，贸易政策的不确定性最终将得到解决。并认为美国有机会与最大的贸易伙 伴进行适当贸易，并确保能够获得在美国不生产的原材料。根据ACC的数据，今年美国化学品出口预 计将下降1.9%，进口预计将下降1.0%。美国长期以来一直存在化学品贸易顺差，预计这一情况将继续 下去。 ACC数据显示，今年全球工业生产的增长预计也将下降，尽管幅度较小，将从2024年的1.7%降至 1.5%。摩尔表示，经历过去几年制造业疲软后，在去年年底和今年年初曾看到一些复苏迹象，然而目 前情况已经发生了变化，政策不确定性是最大因素。 ACC在其年中报告中表示："贸易政策及其潜在影响的普遍不确定性减缓了美国和国外的经济活动。由 于缺乏明确性，众多公司都很难做出决定，由于许多公司采取'观望'立场，订单、投资和 ...

【环球网财经记者 田刚】"纵观人类历史，每当面对巨大不确定性时，封闭对抗从来不是出路，开放合 作才是破局之道"，近日，在2025第十一届中欧国际工商学院"欧洲论坛"巴黎论坛上，在巴黎举办。中 欧国际工商学院院长汪泓以《不确定时代：开放重塑增长》为主题发表致辞时表示："我们比以往任何 时候都更需要思考：如何在不确定中寻找确定性？答案就是开放。" 此外，汪泓还提到，作为一所由中国政府和欧盟联合创建的商学院，中欧国际工商学院历经31年发展， 已是中欧双方在教育领域开放合作的范例，成为连接中国与欧洲之间的桥梁。在国际权威排名中，中欧 汪泓认为，当前全世界正身处一个前所未有的不确定时代，这体现在五个方面。首先，地缘政治纷繁演 变，国际货币基金组织（IMF）测算，如果全球秩序未来出现大幅扰动，全球经济产出或将减少7%。 第二，全球经济波动起伏，高通胀和高债务仍然阴云笼罩，IMF预测全球GDP增速未来五年将滑落至 3.1%，低于五年前3.8%的平均水平。第三，技术革命瞬息万变，以人工智能为代表的技术迅猛发展， 一方面为经济社会带来了革命性机遇，另一方面也引发了对就业、安全和伦理的深刻担忧。第四，全球 产业链深度重构，可能从 ...

Core Viewpoint - Political uncertainty in Thailand is expected to further limit the government's ability to revive the economy, as stated by analysts and economists from Deutsche Bank [1] Group 1: Political Situation - The suspension of the Prime Minister has triggered new political resistance, hindering the government's capacity to respond to external risks through fiscal support [1] - The ruling coalition has lost its second-largest party, resulting in a fragile majority in parliament [1] - Legal issues faced by the Prime Minister and her father may open the door for political opposition and new elections [1]