Core Viewpoint - Traders are observing the highest level of term premium since 2014, indicating a new world order characterized by increased uncertainty, which is expected to keep term premiums elevated [1] Group 1 - The term premium, described as an additional buffer, is currently at its highest level since 2014 [1] - Jack McIntyre, who manages $63 billion in assets at Brandywine, suggests that even if there are concessions on tariffs from Trump, the level of uncertainty will continue to rise [1] - This rising uncertainty implies that the term premium will remain high [1]

欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩：不确定性可能导致政策规模偏向于缩小或扩大。 ...

IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：目前全球的担忧更多集中在不确定性上，而非关税问题。 ...

美联储哈玛克表示，不确定性确实对企业及其规划造成了巨大压力，由于不确定性增加，企业正暂停投 资。 ...

IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：不确定性对企业而言不利。 ...

Group 1 - Leaders are not just making decisions; they are placing bets, and understanding different types of uncertainty is crucial for effective decision-making [2][3] - There are two types of uncertainty: cognitive uncertainty, which can be reduced by gathering more information, and stochastic uncertainty, which is driven by randomness and cannot be changed by data [3] - Companies like Netflix successfully navigated cognitive uncertainty by testing new services and optimizing based on real-time feedback rather than rushing into full-scale changes [4] Group 2 - The "special case" bias leads leaders to overestimate their unique situations, ignoring lessons from others, which can result in significant losses [5][6] - Target's failure in Canada exemplifies the dangers of ignoring past experiences, resulting in a $2 billion loss and withdrawal from the market [6] - In contrast, IKEA's cautious approach in India, involving extensive preparation and local adaptation, has supported its long-term growth [6] Group 3 - Adopting a portfolio thinking approach, where multiple small-scale bets are placed, can mitigate risks and enhance learning in uncertain environments [7] - Amazon exemplifies this strategy through its parallel experimentation across various projects, leading to both successes and failures, but ultimately fostering innovation [7] - Research from McKinsey indicates that companies employing a portfolio innovation strategy outperform their peers in growth and investment returns, even during market volatility [7] Group 4 - The best leaders do not aim for perfect predictions but instead build systems to adapt to changes and learn from them [8] - Recognizing different types of uncertainty and incorporating flexibility into decision-making allows companies to shift from passive responses to proactive strategies [8] - Success belongs to those who make informed bets rather than those who gamble recklessly [8]

美国克利夫兰联储主席Hammack（2026年FOMC票委）：不确定性导致企业暂停投资。 ...

智通财经4月23日电，美联储理事库格勒称，目前面临着潜在的冲击，很大程度上与关税和不确定性有 关。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：目前正面临潜在冲击，许多与关税及不确定性相关。 ...

高盛CEO Solomon：关税延迟增加了不确定性。 ...