And back up goes Wall Street. U.S. stocks are rallying Monday after President Donald Trump said " it will all be fine,†just days after he sent the market reeling by threatening much higher tariffs on China. ...

| 《八 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月13日 | 操作评级 | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | | F03095462 Z0017365 | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | | 白糖 | なな女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | | | F0285606 Z0003096 | 20号胶 | な☆☆ | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，受到中美贸易冲突可能加剧的影响，上午开盘大幅低开，随后情绪有所修复。棉花现货基差稳中略有下 调；2025/26年度喀什手摘双29，双30杂3内现货报价在GF01+1250上下，疆内自提。2025/26年度新棉收购主流均价空间较窄, 整体以6-6.3元/公斤为主，新棉理论成本13500-14400公定不等。纯棉纱价格稳中偏弱，走货气氛 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Date: October 13, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower with a gap, briefly dropping to 4,450 ringgit due to the decline in US soybean oil prices before showing signs of a rebound. The SPPOMA's slowing production growth and strong export data from shipping agencies may support the market. After consolidation, there is a chance for the futures to strengthen further and potentially break through previous highs [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward adjustment phase, breaking below the 40 - day moving average and facing downward pressure. They are expected to fill the previous gap. After stabilization, influenced by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil, there is a possibility of a resurgence. If they can rise above the 40 - day moving average, they may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil [3]. Soybean Oil - The decline of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil on October 10 due to the deterioration of Sino - US trade relations led to a slight drop in Dalian soybean oil. However, the bearish sentiment has eased, and the stabilization of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil has limited the decline of Dalian soybean oil. Domestically, with sufficient soybean supply and high inventory, and weakening demand after restocking, the fundamentals are bearish. The January contract is currently oscillating around the daily mid - track at 8,300 yuan, with a potential for further decline [4]. Soybean Meal - Dalian's January contract price of soybean meal rebounded weakly, affected by the uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. However, the ample supply in the spot market restricts its upward momentum. The market is focused on the progress of the communication between Chinese and US leaders at the end of the month, with the price oscillating narrowly between 2,920 - 2,960 yuan/ton. As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 1.003 million tons compared to the previous week, a 9.11% decline. With high inventory in oil mills and continuous capacity reduction in the breeding sector, the spot price lacks upward momentum and is trading between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [17]. Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: Palm oil futures prices showed declines across different contracts. The BMD palm oil main contract dropped 1.69% to 4,467 ringgit/ton. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou decreased by 220 yuan to 9,220 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou 24 - degree basis increased by 122 yuan to 2 yuan/ton [8]. - Soybean Oil: The prices of soybean oil futures contracts also had mixed changes. The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 1.96% to 49.97 cents/pound. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil decreased by 60 yuan to 8,450 yuan/ton, and the basis remained unchanged at 208 yuan/ton [14]. - Oil Spreads: Various oil spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., showed different changes. For example, P 1 - 5 decreased by 38 yuan/ton to 172 yuan/ton, and Y - P 01 increased by 102 yuan/ton to - 1,136 yuan/ton [5]. Oilseed Price and Spread - Oilseed Futures Prices: The prices of oilseed futures contracts like soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different movements. For instance, soybean meal 01 rose 10 points to 2,932, with a 0.34% increase, while soybean meal 05 fell 8 points to 2,746, a 0.29% decline [18]. - Oilseed Spreads: Spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, also changed. M01 - 05 remained unchanged at 168, while RM01 - 05 decreased by 38 to 63 [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a weak demand performance, with prices oscillating downward this week. The rapid inventory accumulation and doubts about post - holiday restocking demand have left fundamental contradictions unresolved. Also, Sino - US trade relations have disrupted market sentiment [2][4]. - In the short term, the steel futures market is under adjustment pressure due to the under - performing fundamentals, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction. However, the cost side provides support, and the market's expectation for the late - October meeting limits the downward space [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices oscillated downward this week, with the market being stable to slightly lower during the holiday. As of October 11, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Sino - US trade relations affected market sentiment [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition [6]. - From January to August 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net injection was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net injection was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net injection was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded. According to different statistics, the sales amount increased by 11.9% or 22.1% month - on - month, and 0.4% year - on - year [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.5 million, up 22% year - on - year and 16% month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, up 32% year - on - year [6]. - In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, up 15% from August and about 82% from the same period last year [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.6%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 0.9%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19.0%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in domestic steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, down 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore was 299,140 tons, up 340 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, down 3.35 days [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - The average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 99,900 tons, lower than last week's 105,500 tons. The market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, with demand falling short of expectations and risk - aversion sentiment rising [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The steel market has a weak peak season, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction, so the short - term market faces adjustment pressure. However, cost support and expectations for the late - October meeting limit the downward space [26]. - Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - to - rebar spread, and steel profit. The option strategy is a wide - straddle consolidation [2][27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Fats and Oils - Malaysia's palm oil futures may face further downward pressure due to potential slowdown in export growth and concerns about increased production in October. Domestic palm oil and soybean oil futures are likely to continue to decline. Overall, a cautious and bearish view is maintained [1]. Sugar - The price of raw sugar is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 17 cents per pound. After the National Day holiday, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [2]. Corn - During the period of new corn's concentrated market entry, due to the pressure of phased supply, corn will maintain a weak pattern [3]. Cotton - In the medium term, cotton prices will face pressure when they rise [6]. Meal - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but there is an expected shortage in the first quarter of 2026, which supports the price of M2601. If the purchase of US soybeans continues to be halted, the M2601 contract has support in the range of 2900 - 2950, where long positions can be considered [8]. Pork - In the short term, there are signs of second - fattening and reluctance to sell, but in the medium and long term, the supply pressure of pork will continue to be released, and pig prices are not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market [10][11]. Eggs - This week, the egg market is expected to decline in an oscillating manner, with no obvious positive support in the short term [14]. Summary by Category Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On October 10, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8610 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2601 fell by 0.36% to 8302 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10.79% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9460 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 fell by 1.38% to 9438 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 120% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.15% to 10330 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI601 fell by 1.82% to 10061 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 33.17% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with the palm oil's 01 - 05 spread dropping by 18.10% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.58% to 5496 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar's main contract fell by 0.92% to 16.10 cents per pound [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged at 5800 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.17% to 5810 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 12.87% to 1000 million tons [2]. Corn - **Corn**: On October 10, the price of corn 2511 decreased by 0.61% to 2125 yuan/ton, and the import profit decreased by 2.58% to 377 yuan/ton [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.08% to 2432 yuan/ton, and the profit of Shandong's starch increased by 40% to 35 yuan/ton [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.22% to 13375 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton's main contract decreased by 1.07% to 63.77 cents per pound [6]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.12% to 14630 yuan/ton [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.1% to 102.17 million tons, and the import volume increased by 40% to 7 million tons [6]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.37% to 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of M2601 increased by 2000% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2460 yuan/ton, and the basis of RM2601 remained unchanged [8]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3880 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract of soybean No. 1 remained unchanged [8]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of the main contract of live pigs decreased by 2.37% to 11320 yuan/ton, and the price of the 2601 contract decreased by 0.21% to 12140 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions all decreased, with the price in Henan dropping to 11200 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.18% to 154455, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 105.30% to - 152 yuan per head [10]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of the 11 - contract of eggs decreased by 2.26% to 2806 yuan/500KG, and the price of the 01 - contract decreased by 2.65% to 3160 yuan/500KG [13]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the production area decreased by 3.02% to 2.87 yuan per catty, and the price of culled chickens decreased by 3.88% to 4.46 yuan per catty [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 0.70% to 2.83, and the breeding profit decreased by 33.75% to 2.12 yuan per bird [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The prices of iron ore, gold,菜粕, palm oil,生猪,焦煤,螺纹钢,白银,中长期国债, glass, methanol, PVC,原油,沥青, and rubber are expected to show different trends, with suggestions for corresponding trading strategies provided [1][3][4]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 904,000 tons week-on-week, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 98,700 tons. The inventory at 45 ports increased by 242,200 tons, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 94,000 tons. The number of ships in port increased by 5. - Supply is stable, and demand is still supported. Some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday. However, Sino-US trade relations may impact prices. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Gold - US Vice President Vance released some easing signals regarding Trump's latest tariff threat. - The tariff news last Friday led to a sharp drop in overseas stock markets and an upgrade in market risk aversion. Gold has limited upward momentum at present. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [1]. 菜粕 - In the 41st week of 2025, the菜籽 crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. The estimated volume for next week is the same. - As the temperature drops, the rigid demand for 菜粕 is expected to decline. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future policy changes, upstream operations, and other factors should be monitored [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian government expects an increase in crude palm oil production in 2026 due to factors such as increased fresh fruit bunch production and improved oil extraction rates. - International trade situations are variable, and the future trends of US soybeans and soybean oil are unclear. Palm oil has strong support, and opportunities to go long on dips should be noted [3]. 生猪 - As of October 10, the average slaughter weight of 生猪 increased by 0.01 kg to 123.48 kg, the weekly slaughter operating rate increased by 0.19% to 31.14%, and the prices of piglets and the profits of different breeding methods decreased. - The supply pressure on the breeding side remains high, and the demand increase is limited. Prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 焦煤 - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises increased by 0.05% to 75.18%, and other relevant data also changed. - Supply decreased during the holiday, and demand slowed down. Spot coal prices were weakly stable. After the holiday, production will recover, but the upside will be limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. 螺纹钢 - The blast furnace operating rate, ironmaking capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of 247 steel mills decreased slightly. - Policy signals are positive, but market demand during the National Day holiday was poor, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [6][7]. 白银 - The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly, and the expected inflation rate was slightly lower. - The US economy is still resilient, and risk aversion has increased. Silver has limited upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [7]. 中长期国债 - China's rare earth export control is not a ban, and the impact is limited. The US's tariff increase plan has been opposed by China. - Tariffs may cause market fluctuations, and risk aversion supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be more bullish, but trading is more difficult. A slightly bullish and oscillatory mindset should be adopted [8]. Glass - The average price of float glass increased, the operating rate remained flat, inventory increased, and the average order days of deep-processing enterprises increased. - The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, but downstream demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu increased, the domestic production capacity utilization rate increased, and inventory and other data also changed. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has recovered. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. PVC - The price of PVC in East China remained flat, the production capacity utilization rate increased, inventory increased, and the operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises increased. - PVC supply is at a high level, and demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11][12]. 原油 - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, and the US is involved in Middle East peace negotiations. - The signing of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East reduces geopolitical risk premiums, and OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts. Demand is also under pressure. It is advisable to trade short at high levels [13]. 沥青 - As of October 9, the weekly production of domestic 沥青 decreased by 6.8% week-on-week but increased by 24.9% year-on-year. Factory and social inventories changed differently. - In the fourth quarter, 沥青 supply and demand will decline seasonally, and the decline in demand is more negative for the spot market. Prices are expected to continue to fall [14]. Rubber - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and Hainan are provided, and the export volume of natural rubber in Malaysia in August decreased year-on-year but increased month-on-month. China's heavy truck sales in September increased significantly. - The rubber production season in Southeast Asia is from September to October, and supply is expected to be loose. Demand growth is limited. Although the supply-demand drive is weak, rubber is supported by low inventory and production in the medium term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [15].

2025.10.13-10.17 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡整理的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2601短 期内或将处于震荡整理的阶段，预计运行区间：2880-3050。 据Mysteel数据：第40周油厂大豆实际压榨量175.57万吨，开机率为 49.01%。国内大豆到港量持续处于高位，油厂压榨节奏虽在节日期间有 所放缓，但整体仍处于高压榨状态，而终端采购补库节奏趋于谨慎平缓。 同时，中美贸易关系的不确定性以及巴西升贴水的偏强运行，对豆粕价 格形成一定支撑。综合来看，豆粕期货处于震荡整理的阶段。 2 关注中美贸易进展及南美天气。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 为规避十一长假期间外盘波动风险，建议轻仓或空仓过节。 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕(m) v v | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 | | 多空流向: -53.0 ~ - 主力较为偏 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 关税升级：4 月重现 or TACO 交易 证券研究报告 海外时政点评 特朗普提出对华征收 100%关税，打破中美关税"平静期"。 当地时间 10 月 10 日，特朗普在社交媒体发帖，称将从 11 月 1 日开始对 中国征收 100%的关税，并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。 9 月中下旬，市场对中美关税的情绪偏乐观，对中美元首在 10 月底的 APEC 会议上会晤怀有期待，9 月 14-15 日的马德里经贸会谈，中美就 TikTok 等 问题进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的沟通，9 月 19 日中美元首通话，通 话是务实、积极、建设性的。 而国庆假期后，情绪有所转变。中方宣布对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料、 钬等 5 种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制； 对美国对造船等行业 301 调查限制措施实施反制；对高通公司开展反垄断 调查等。特朗普宣布计划对中国商品征收 100%关税。 关税和贸易谈判，后续或如何演绎？ 我们认为，不断升级的贸易措施计划，或是为未来的谈判增加筹码。中方 加强对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料等的出口管制，是从 11 月 8 日实施； 而特朗普宣称的 ...

2025 年 10 月 12 日 車 度 千 国庆前后(09.29-10.10),美豆期价涨跌互现,期价上涨主要因为中美谈判希望(10月1日美国总 统特朗普表示,他将在四周后与中国国家主席习近平会面,大豆贸易将成为核心议题)和美国政策支持 (10 月 2 日美国财长贝森特表示,美国政府将为美国农民、特别是大豆种植者推出支持性政策);期价下 跌主要因为中美贸易摩擦忧虑再度升温（10月10日特朗普表示,没有理由按计划在两周后在韩国与中国 领导人会面;随后,特朗普宣布将从11月1日起对中国商品加征额外100%进口关税)。从周Ｋ线角度, 10月 3日当周,美豆主力 11月合约周涨幅 8.3%; 10月 10 日当周兴 美豆主力 11 月合约周跌幅 0.98%。 国庆前后 (09.29-09.30、10.09-10.10),国内豆粕期价偏弱,豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面,主要交 易中美缓和、中加缓和。豆一方面,盘面偏强主要因为国内政策支持预期、国庆期间美豆价格上涨带动。 东北产区新豆现货价格稳中偏弱。从周 K 线角度，18 月 10 日当周（节后两个交易日），豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 0.2%,豆一主力 a2511 ...

Core Insights - The international gold market experienced significant volatility on October 10, 2025, with prices dropping to a low of $3945 per ounce before rebounding to a high of $4022, ultimately closing at $4010 per ounce. This fluctuation was driven by geopolitical easing and renewed tensions in U.S.-China trade relations [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The initial drop in gold prices was triggered by the approval of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which alleviated geopolitical tensions and reduced market risk aversion [2] - Following the initial decline, gold prices rebounded sharply due to fears of an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, particularly after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 [3] - The volatility in gold prices reflects a shift in market sentiment from geopolitical concerns to the complexities of trade relations between the U.S. and China [4] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on dips within the $3990 - $4000 range, with a stop-loss set below $3980 and a target of $4040 - $4050, capitalizing on the renewed trade-related risk aversion [5] - A cautious short position is recommended in the $4040 - $4050 range, with a stop-loss above $4060 and a target of $4000 - $4010, to take advantage of potential technical corrections if prices rise quickly [6]