Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US-China trade talks in Madrid on September 12, 2025, are marked by heightened tensions, particularly following the US's recent addition of 23 Chinese companies to its export control "entity list," which has provoked a strong response from China [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The negotiations will be the fourth formal talks since 2025, primarily focusing on a ceasefire agreement regarding the US-China tariff war, with a temporary agreement reached in July to suspend new tariffs until November 10 [1]. - The US has employed a strategy of pressure tactics before negotiations, including demands for TikTok's US localization by September 17 or face a ban, and rallying allies to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese goods [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Since the trade war began in 2018, China's exports to the US have decreased from 19% to 15%, while exports to ASEAN have surged, making ASEAN China's largest trading partner with a bilateral trade volume of $1.2 trillion [4]. - In the second quarter of 2025, US imports from China fell to $64.8 billion, the lowest quarterly figure in 19 years, with China’s new season soybean purchases from the US at zero, as over 80% of imports now come from South America [4]. Group 3: Technology and Financial Strategies - The technology sector has become a focal point in the US-China rivalry, with China initiating anti-dumping investigations on US-made chips and imposing significant fines on companies like Qualcomm, signaling a commitment to compete in the semiconductor market [6]. - China has been reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds, decreasing by $18.9 billion to $765.4 billion, the lowest in 15 years, while increasing gold reserves to 73.77 million ounces, aiming to establish a reserve system less reliant on the US dollar [6]. Group 4: Challenges to US Policies - The US's strategy to rally allies for joint tariffs against China has seen limited success, as countries like the EU and South Korea are heavily dependent on the Chinese market, making participation in sanctions economically detrimental [7]. - Domestic challenges in the US, including rising prices and criticism from state governors and Republican lawmakers regarding tariff policies, pose significant hurdles to the effectiveness of the US's hardline approach [6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese bond market** and its relationship with **global liquidity** and **economic conditions** [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Current Market Dynamics**: The Chinese asset pricing logic is influenced by both domestic fundamentals and global liquidity conditions, leading to confusion in the bond market as the stock market remains strong [1][2]. - **2026 Bond Market Outlook**: The team holds a pessimistic view on the Chinese bond market for 2026, indicating a bear market risk and adjusting previous bullish predictions. The anticipated low for the ten-year government bond yield is now projected at **1.6%** [1][6]. - **Impact of Trade War**: The ongoing US-China trade war has accelerated the international expansion of Chinese companies, particularly in capital goods exports to emerging markets, which has mitigated the trade war's negative impacts [1][9]. - **2025 Bond Market Predictions**: The bond market is expected to exhibit volatility in 2025, with the ten-year government bond yield potentially stabilizing around **1.6%**. The social financing sector remains a crucial factor in determining bond market pricing [10]. - **Global Economic Recovery**: A rebound in global demand is anticipated in 2026, driven by monetary and fiscal easing in developed economies, which will likely enhance capital expenditures in non-US economies and stimulate overseas demand [11][15]. - **Inflation and Financial Conditions**: The relationship between internal and external inflation is critical. The current low internal inflation in China contrasts with rising external inflation, necessitating attention to liquidity changes and their effects on asset prices [17][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Export Performance**: Contrary to expectations of a significant decline due to the trade war, Chinese exports have exceeded forecasts, particularly in capital goods aimed at regions like Africa and Latin America [7][8][18]. - **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: Historical patterns suggest that while property prices may not see significant rebounds, sales and investment in real estate could exhibit greater elasticity, potentially impacting the bond market [23]. - **Policy Implications**: The effectiveness of fiscal policy in addressing potential deflation in 2024 will depend on its proactive nature. If the real estate market becomes an endogenous variable in economic growth, external demand will play a crucial role in driving domestic growth [14][21]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the complexities of the Chinese bond market amid global economic shifts, trade tensions, and evolving domestic conditions. The insights provided suggest a cautious approach to investment in bonds, with a focus on external demand and inflation dynamics as key determinants of future market behavior.

Core Insights - The global energy market is undergoing a significant shift, with China's imports of U.S. energy dropping to nearly zero, indicating a structural decoupling due to the U.S.-China trade war [1][3][5] - This situation is not a temporary fluctuation; it reflects a strategic decision by China to diversify its energy sources and reduce reliance on U.S. energy [3][5][7] Energy Import Trends - In July, China's energy imports from the U.S. reached a five-year low, with total purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, and coal falling to less than one ton [1][3] - Since March, China has not purchased U.S. LNG, and by June, crude oil orders also ceased, with coal imports plummeting from millions of tons to less than one ton per month [3][5] Strategic Shift - China is actively restructuring its energy import system, turning to new suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, Australia, and African nations, while U.S. energy exporters are left struggling [3][5][7] - The geopolitical landscape has changed, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has allowed China to procure Russian energy at lower prices [3][5] U.S. Response and Market Impact - The U.S. has attempted to retaliate by proposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and rallying allies for joint pressure, but these efforts have not yielded the desired results [1][5][7] - U.S. energy companies are now seeking new markets in Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, but these markets cannot compensate for the loss of Chinese demand [5][7] Long-term Implications - The absence of Chinese orders is creating a significant gap in the U.S. energy market, leading to reduced profit margins and increased transportation costs for U.S. exporters [5][7] - Analysts warn that if the situation persists, U.S. energy companies may face production cuts or even closures due to the lack of demand from China [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 11, 2025, with the benchmark contract up 0.9%, ending a two - day losing streak as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's monthly global supply - demand report on September 12 [3]. - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean and corn production forecasts in the report due to late - summer drought, with the soybean yield forecast to be cut to 53.3 bushels per acre from 53.6 bushels last month, but the production is still expected to be 4.271 billion bushels, one of the largest in US history [3]. - Some analysts expect the USDA to lower the 2025/26 US soybean export forecast in the report because of weak Chinese demand for US soybeans due to the Sino - US trade war [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: DCE Bean No.1 2511 closed at 3911 yuan/ton during the day session (down 60 yuan or 0.13%) and 3957 yuan/ton at night (up 31 yuan or 0.79%); DCE Soybean Meal 2601 closed at 3066 yuan/ton during the day session (down 10 yuan or 0.33%) and 3090 yuan/ton at night (up 15 yuan or 0.49%); CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1034 cents/bushel (up 9 cents or 0.88%); CBOT Soybean Meal 12 closed at 287.7 dollars/short ton (up 2 dollars or 0.70%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous day; in East China and South China, different price spreads relative to futures contracts were reported, mostly remaining unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 10.6 million tons per day on the previous trading day, and the inventory was 106.39 million tons per week [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - On September 11, 2025, CBOT soybean futures rose as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's monthly global supply - demand report, which will include US corn and soybean production forecasts [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trends of soymeal and soybeans are adjustment and shock, with soymeal showing an adjustment shock trend and soybeans showing a decline and adjustment trend [1]. - The CBOT soybean futures closed lower on September 9, 2025, due to lack of Chinese demand and position adjustment before the major report. The market is waiting for the USDA's global supply - demand report on Friday [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybeans 2511 closed at 3968 yuan/ton during the day session, down 5 yuan (-0.13%), and 3937 yuan/ton during the night session, down 34 yuan (-0.86%) [1]. - DCE soymeal 2601 closed at 3075 yuan/ton during the day session, down 4 yuan (-0.13%), and 3066 yuan/ton during the night session, down 10 yuan (-0.33%) [1]. - CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1030.5 cents/bushel, down 3.5 cents (-0.34%) [1]. - CBOT soymeal 12 closed at 288.6 dollars/short - ton, up 3.4 dollars (+1.19%) [1]. Spot - In Shandong, the spot price of soymeal was 3060 - 3070 yuan/ton, flat; different delivery - period prices had various relationships with the futures contract M2601 [1]. - In East China, the spot price and different delivery - period prices of soymeal also had different relationships with the futures contract M2601, with some prices down compared to the previous day [1]. - In South China, the spot price of soymeal was 3020 - 3030 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan compared to the previous day; different delivery - period prices had different relationships with the futures contract M2601 [1]. Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soymeal was 15.25 million tons two trading days ago, and the inventory was 106.39 million tons in the previous week and 101.49 million tons two weeks ago [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 9, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed lower because China continued to avoid US supplies, and traders adjusted positions before the USDA's supply - demand report. The USDA has continuously downgraded the ratings of corn and soybean crop conditions, and the market expects a reduction in the yield forecast in the upcoming report. Analysts expect the US soybean yield to reach 42.71 billion bushels, and some also expect a reduction in US soybean export expectations. The weather in the Midwest next week is suitable for crop harvest [1][3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal is 0, and that of soybeans is - 1, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of a recent court ruling against former President Trump's tariffs, highlighting the potential legal and political consequences of his appeal to the Supreme Court [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Implications - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled 7-4 that most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal [1]. - If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, it would invalidate Trump's tariffs, limiting his ability to use trade deficits as a justification for imposing tariffs on China and other countries [1][3]. Group 2: Political Consequences - The outcome of this case raises questions about the extent of presidential power and whether Trump is attempting to undermine the checks and balances inherent in the U.S. government [3][5]. - Trump's actions, including his attempts to consolidate power, could lead to increased political division within the U.S., particularly between the Republican and Democratic parties [5]. Group 3: International Trade Relations - China is observing the situation closely, as the internal pressures on the U.S. may lead to more urgent negotiations regarding trade disputes [7]. - The article argues that tariffs are not a viable solution for enhancing U.S.-China cooperation and may instead exacerbate global market instability and domestic issues in the U.S. [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals has overturned Trump's tariff policy against China, which could have significant implications for the global economy and U.S. political landscape [1][5]. Group 1: Legal and Political Implications - The court ruled 7-4 that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were an overreach of presidential authority, indicating that such significant economic policy changes require congressional approval [1][5]. - Trump's immediate reaction involved a series of tweets asserting the tariffs remain effective and vowing to appeal to the Supreme Court, reflecting a refusal to concede defeat [3][5]. - The ruling highlights a deeper crisis within the U.S. political system, as Trump's administration has been accused of expanding executive power at the expense of the checks and balances established by the Constitution [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Consequences - If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, the U.S. Treasury may face substantial refund claims, potentially returning over $210 billion in tariffs to importers, which could exacerbate the already high national debt [6]. - The loss of tariffs would undermine the U.S. negotiating position in trade agreements with the EU and Japan, which were partly based on the threat of tariffs [6][9]. - The outcome of this legal battle is seen as a pivotal moment that could reshape global political and economic dynamics, with potential benefits for China as it navigates external pressures [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how certain brands perceived as domestic in China are actually owned by American companies, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariffs and the complexities of global capitalism in consumer perception [2][26]. Group 1: Brand Analysis - Shuanghui, once a true Chinese brand, was acquired by Goldman Sachs in 2006 for $2 billion, and later its parent company, WH Group, purchased Smithfield Foods, marking its transition to a global food giant [4][6]. - Despite the U.S.-China trade war, Shuanghui remains unaffected due to its localized production and supply chain, with 2024 sales exceeding 60 billion yuan [8]. - The brand continues to market itself as a "national brand," misleading consumers into believing it is still a purely domestic enterprise [8]. Group 2: Dabo Brand Case - Dabo SOD Honey, a well-known skincare product, was acquired by Johnson & Johnson for 2.3 billion yuan in 2008, altering its brand identity while maintaining its market presence [10][12]. - Post-acquisition, Dabo retained its original packaging and pricing strategy, allowing it to continue appealing to middle and lower-income consumers [12]. - The brand's production is fully localized, making it resilient to tariff impacts and positioning it as a cost-effective alternative to imported skincare products [12][14]. Group 3: Harbin Beer - Harbin Beer, originally founded by Russian merchants, was acquired by Anheuser-Busch in 2004, and its control eventually passed to European capital [16][18]. - The brand employs a marketing strategy that emphasizes "Chinese elements," misleading consumers into thinking it remains a domestic brand [18]. - Harbin Beer has successfully avoided tariff impacts due to its local production and sourcing, with sales exceeding 1.8 million tons in the previous year [20]. Group 4: Little Sheep - Little Sheep, a popular hot pot chain, was privatized by Yum Brands in 2012 for nearly 4.6 billion Hong Kong dollars, leading to a reduction in store numbers from over 700 to less than 300 by 2024 [22][24]. - Despite the decrease in store count, the brand's profitability remained stable due to integration into Yum's supply chain, which standardized production and maintained flavor consistency [24]. - Little Sheep's marketing emphasizes its "grassland genes" and "Chinese cuisine," reinforcing its image as a domestic brand [24]. Group 5: Consumer Awareness - The article emphasizes the blurred lines of brand nationality in a globalized economy, where profits are the primary focus, and consumers may unknowingly support foreign-owned brands [26]. - It calls for consumers to be more discerning and informed about the ownership of the products they purchase, rather than relying solely on emotional marketing [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is currently in a weak position as the restocking phase has ended, but the decline after the new grain harvest is expected to be less than last year. Short - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; long - term, consider low - buying when the futures price falls below cost [1][2]. - The oil market may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but is likely to strengthen in the medium term due to factors such as increased demand for palm oil and soybean oil from overseas biodiesel, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [6]. - The protein meal market will continue to fluctuate within a range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises should buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7]. - The pig market is in a low - level oscillation. Before the National Day, the inventory will be gradually released, and the spot and near - month prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract is supported by the expectation of capacity reduction, presenting a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - The natural rubber market has no obvious short - term drivers and will maintain range - bound trading, with a short - term upward bias [12]. - The synthetic rubber market will maintain range - bound trading, and the short - term price is expected to rise slightly and the market may be strong [13]. - The cotton market has support but lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. - The sugar market is in a downward trend. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new season, the price is expected to be weak; in the short term, it will fluctuate within the range of 5550 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market has unclear core drivers and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - The log market is in a weak oscillation. Technically, it is in a downward trend, but the supply will ease in the future, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oil**: Due to pessimistic demand expectations, US soybeans fell on Tuesday while US soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market continued to fluctuate. Factors such as the US soybean's reduced excellent - rate, the impact of Sino - US trade relations on export demand, and the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil were considered. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, and the inventory increase of Malaysian palm oil in August may be limited. The short - term outlook is for continued oscillation and adjustment, and the medium - term outlook is for a strong trend [6]. - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by weather and Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean excellent - rate has decreased, and the 9 - month supply - demand report may lower the yield per unit. The domestic market has limited room for price decline, and the demand is expected to increase steadily. The outlook is for range - bound trading [7]. - **Corn/Starch**: The domestic corn price is generally stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The wheat substitution may decrease. The short - term outlook is to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and the long - term outlook is to consider low - buying [1][9]. - **Pig**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The demand is affected by temperature changes, and the inventory is gradually being released. The market shows a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. There are some positive factors such as the approaching seasonal rise period, but the short - term upward space is limited [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the natural rubber market and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The short - term price is expected to rise slightly [13]. - **Cotton**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar supplies are increasing, and the price is under downward pressure. The long - term outlook is for a weak trend, and the short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the core driver of the futures is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Log**: The spot price is falling, and the market is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure will ease in the future, and the market may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the monitored varieties including oilseeds, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided [21][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for the expected price trends of varieties, including strong, oscillating - strong, oscillating, oscillating - weak, and weak, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases on September 3, 2025 [172]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 3, 2025, the agricultural product index had a daily decline of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 0.13%, a 1 - month decline of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.74% [174].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is urging China to increase soybean imports to four times the current amount, presenting it as a special favor, while underlying complexities exist [1] - The U.S. Soybean Association is pressing the government to lift tariffs to restore exports to China, as approximately 30% of this year's soybean production may face unsold risks without timely buyers [3] - China's soybean imports from the U.S. have significantly decreased, with 2024 imports totaling 1.05 million tons, of which only 22.13 million tons are from the U.S., a 5.7% decline year-on-year [3] Group 2 - U.S. farmers are suffering substantial losses exceeding $5 billion due to the impediments in exports to China, yet the Trump administration continues to escalate geopolitical tensions [5] - China maintains silence on U.S. promises due to the lack of concrete solutions regarding logistics costs and risks, alongside sufficient domestic soybean reserves [6] - To resolve the soybean surplus issue, the Trump administration needs to demonstrate sincerity by establishing stable trade rules and a predictable cooperation framework [8]