1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the short - term outlook is mainly "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the current energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and crude oil price trends. Most product prices are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing downward pressure due to factors like increased supply or geopolitical influences [1][3][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI November contract closed down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a 1.39% drop; Brent December contract closed down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a 1.37% drop; SC2511 closed at 435.1 yuan per barrel, down 8.1 yuan per barrel, a 1.83% decline. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels last week, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high of 13.64 million barrels per day. India may reduce Russian oil imports. Overall, oil prices will continue to decline under supply - demand pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.94% to 2,694 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 rose 0.03% to 3,159 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Short - term high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur, but under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will oscillate weakly [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 0.55% to 3,250 yuan per ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, but the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous significant production increases may suppress prices. Under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, asphalt will oscillate weakly in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures contracts all rose on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average of about 60%. PTA and EG production capacity increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term, and cost reduction may stimulate polyester factories' restocking demand [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2601, NR, and BR all rose. The main rubber - producing areas are in normal tapping season. The basis of the 20 - type rubber strengthened, and the inventory of downstream tire products is high. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends. The domestic supply has recovered, and overseas Iranian devices have resumed production, but future production increases are limited due to winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and the positive spread strategy between months [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The short - term supply will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand in October will gradually decline. With the weakening of crude oil prices, polyolefin prices will be weak [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed oscillating trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak. The total inventory pressure is large, and PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 16 and 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - U.S. President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop purchasing Russian crude oil, but India did not comment. Some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][24][28][29][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [31][35][36][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [45][47][50][53][56][58]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [60][65][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and relevant qualifications [75][76][77][78]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, technical buying increased after a sharp decline in ICE raw sugar, showing signs of stabilization. However, global sugar production is expected to be high, and the downward potential of raw sugar has weakened. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar was driven down by the macro - environment and the decline in raw sugar, with short - term technical rebounds but limited by supply - demand pressure [3]. - In the pulp market, the price of hardwood pulp is strong, while the price of softwood pulp is weak. The supply of wood pulp is high, and although there was a reduction in production by some pulp mills, the impact is not obvious. The demand for wood pulp is supported by the increase in the production of finished paper during the peak season, but the price increase of finished paper is weak, and the upward drive for pulp is limited [4]. - Regarding double - offset paper, the expectation of peak - season demand may support the price, but due to the high production capacity, the seasonal improvement may not lead to a significant price increase, and it is expected to be weak in the medium term [7]. - In the cotton market, the US cotton harvest is progressing steadily, and the domestic Xinjiang cotton harvest is also in progress. The market is under pressure from supply and consumption concerns, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [8]. - For apples, the new - season apple harvest has a time lag and quality concerns, and the short - term futures price may be supported [10]. - In the jujube market, the inventory has decreased slightly. The futures price is at a high premium to the spot price, and investors are advised to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2601: Adopt a bullish approach, with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 9000 - 9200, due to the expected difference in the new - season harvest and the value of taking delivery [21]. - Jujube 2601: Short at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000, as the overall commodity sentiment is strong and attention is on weather - related price premiums [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2601: Temporarily wait and see, with a support range of 5270 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5480 - 5500, as technical buying has increased and sentiment has improved [21]. - Pulp 2511: Short within the range, with a support range of 4700 - 4800 and a pressure range of 5100 - 5200, because the short - term valuation is not high, but supply is high and the price of domestic finished paper is weak [21]. - Double - offset paper 2601: Short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500, as the approaching peak season supports the price, but the supply is elastic [21]. - Cotton 2601: Hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700, due to the approaching new - cotton listing and concerns about Sino - US trade relations [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.57%. As of September 25, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 30,700 tons [22]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the inventory apple market is stable, and the new - season late - maturing Fuji has a delayed listing due to weather. In the Shaanxi production area, red apples are scarce, and the listing time is also postponed. The sales area market is stable [22][23][24]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, a decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. Attention is on the circulation of old - season jujubes and price changes before the new - season harvest [25]. - **Sugar Market**: In September, the average productivity of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 71.9 tons per hectare, higher than the same period last year. Pakistan plans to purchase up to 100,000 tons of sugar on the international market, but the possibility of a deal seems to be decreasing [27]. - **Pulp Market**: Chinese traders counter - offered to import NBSK at $650 per ton, but sellers refused to reduce prices. A European supplier sold NBSK at $650 per ton, lower than the market level. A major Brazilian supplier will increase the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to the Asian market by $20 per ton [30]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In different regions such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin, the price of double - offset paper is relatively stable. The supply is relatively loose as some production lines resume production after the holiday, and the demand shows no sign of improvement [31][32]. - **Cotton Market**: In September 2025, Bangladesh's clothing export volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. In August, Vietnam's cotton textile production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, while clothing production decreased. As of October 13, the cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang was about 53.2%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be adjusted slightly [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of apple 2601, jujube 2601, sugar 2601, pulp 2511, and cotton 2601 are 8665, 11105, 5403, 4856, and 13270 respectively, with daily changes of 0.01%, - 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.21%, and 0.04% [34]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are 3.75 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5790 yuan per ton, 5550 yuan (Shandong Silver Star), 4450 yuan (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin), and 14674 yuan per ton respectively, with corresponding changes [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, such as the basis of apple 1 - month, jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - For apples, the 10 - 1 spread is 535, with a month - on - month change of - 1 and a year - on - year change of - 97, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For jujubes, the 9 - 1 spread is 315, with a month - on - month change of 295 and a year - on - year change of - 55, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 spread is 32, with a month - on - month change of 5 and a year - on - year change of 15, expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For cotton, the 1 - 5 spread is - 60, with a month - on - month change of - 5 and a year - on - year change of 25, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see temporarily [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts about the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and short changes of various varieties are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volumes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 0, 8438, 227676, and 2773 respectively, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [85]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.

Report Date - October 16, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is facing shipment pressure [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - BU2511 closed at 3,250 yuan/ton yesterday, down 1.22%, and 3,246 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.12%. Its trading volume was 112,815 lots, an increase of 12,090 lots, and the open interest was 82,783 lots, a decrease of 16,325 lots [2] - BU2512 closed at 3,184 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.84%, and 3,180 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.13%. Its trading volume was 43,274 lots, a decrease of 9,101 lots, and the open interest was 82,394 lots, a decrease of 2,167 lots [2] - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 42,370 lots, with no change [2] - **Spread**: - The basis (Shandong - 11) was 200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day [2] - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2] - The Shandong - South China spread was 0, down 10 [2] - The East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - **Spot Market**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,451 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent was 3,572 yuan/ton [2] - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,444 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent was 3,485 yuan/ton [2] - **Operating and Inventory Rates**: - The refinery operating rate was 42.77% on October 13, up 4.47% from October 9 [2] - The refinery inventory rate was 28.70% on October 13, up 2.23% from October 9 [2] Market News - From October 9 - 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 35.8%, a 1.3% increase from the previous week. Some refineries in Henan, Shandong and Shandong stopped production or switched to residue production, while some refineries in East China and Jiangsu had intermittent production [17] - From October 7 - 14, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a 2.9% increase from the previous week. The shipments in East China and Northeast China increased significantly [17] - From October 8 - 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a 4.7% decrease from before the holiday and a 2.5% decrease year - on - year. The demand in the north decreased due to cold weather, and continuous rainfall in Central China also suppressed demand [17]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has been under price pressure since early September, with PTA futures showing weak performance and prices stabilizing around 4500 yuan/ton after the National Day holiday [1] Supply Side - As of early October, PTA weekly capacity utilization has increased by approximately 7 percentage points compared to the end of August, reaching 77.84%, while PX weekly capacity utilization rose to 88.23%, up about 3.6 percentage points [1][3] - Several major facilities remain offline, with uncertain restart dates, including the 1.2 million ton facility at Sanfangxiang and the 2.25 million ton facility at Yisheng Dalian [3] - There are expectations for maintenance in October for the 1 million ton facility at Sichuan Nengtou and the 2.5 million ton facility at Dushan Energy in November, indicating limited recovery in PTA capacity utilization despite marginal increases [3] Demand Side - As of early October, demand from weaving terminals remains strong, with improved inquiry atmosphere for autumn and winter home textiles and apparel fabrics, although foreign trade orders are still low [4] - The average capacity utilization for long filaments is approximately 91.39%, and for short fibers, it is about 86.96%, both showing slight increases compared to August [4] - The overall demand performance is moderate, with limited new orders during the National Day holiday, leading to a cautious approach in raw material procurement [4] Price and Profitability - From early September to early October, processing profits in the polyester industry chain have decreased, with PX valuations dropping and PTA processing fees remaining low [2] - As of early October, the weighted profit for polyester is a monthly loss of 26 yuan/ton, significantly narrowing from a loss of 80 yuan/ton in August [2] - The expected trading range for PTA futures is between 4400 to 4800 yuan/ton, with spot processing fees anticipated to range from 100 to 300 yuan/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has been under price pressure since early September, with PTA futures showing weak performance and prices stabilizing around 4500 yuan/ton after the National Day holiday [1] Supply Side - As of early October, PTA weekly capacity utilization has increased by approximately 7 percentage points compared to the end of August, reaching 77.84%. PX weekly capacity utilization rose to 88.23%, up about 3.6 percentage points, while polyester capacity utilization remained stable at 87.8%, a rise of about 1.14 percentage points [1][3] - Several major facilities are still offline, with uncertain restart dates. Facilities that are currently offline include the 1.2 million ton facility at Sanfangxiang, the 1.2 million ton facility at Taiwan Chemical, and the 2.25 million ton facility at Yisheng Dalian, among others. The restart of these facilities is pending [3] - There are expectations for maintenance in October for the 1 million ton facility at Sichuan Energy Investment and the 2.5 million ton facility at Dushan Energy, which may limit the overall increase in PTA capacity utilization [3] Demand Side - As of early October, demand from the weaving terminal remains strong, with improved inquiry atmosphere for autumn and winter home textiles and apparel fabrics. However, foreign trade orders are still relatively low [4] - The average capacity utilization for long filaments is approximately 91.39%, for short fibers is about 86.96%, and for bottle flakes is around 71.16%, all showing slight increases compared to August [4] - The overall demand performance during the National Day holiday was weak, with manufacturers primarily focusing on fulfilling previous orders rather than actively procuring raw materials [4] Market Outlook - The PTA market is expected to continue a dual increase in supply and demand in October, with more uncertainties on the supply side compared to the demand side. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of facility restarts and maintenance, which may adjust supply expectations [4] - The cost side shows limited supply-demand contradictions for PX, with weak crude oil prices. PTA futures prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation trend, with the main contract operating in the range of 4400 to 4800 yuan/ton and spot processing fees between 100 to 300 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline of EB2511 is expected to weaken, with the daily range estimated to be around 6480 - 6600 [3]. - The output and capacity utilization rate of styrene are expected to increase slightly this week. The mismatch between upstream and downstream production may deepen the supply - demand contradiction. The inventory pressure is relatively high and may maintain a slow destocking trend. The cost support effect is gradually strengthening [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures active contracts is 433,433 lots, with a decrease of 7,309 lots; the closing price of the active contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the long position of the top 20 holders is 299,752 lots, with a decrease of 4,064 lots; the net long position is - 20,008 lots, with a decrease of 7,092 lots; the short position is 440,525 lots, with an increase of 1,325 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,341 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots [2]. - The closing price of the November contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 811 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price is 6600 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,020 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6,675 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), 6,615 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and 6,585 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 786 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 716 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB US Gulf spot price of pure benzene is 695.86 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF Taiwan price is 250 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the FOB Rotterdam price is 655 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,630 yuan/ton, and 5,510 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.61%, with an increase of 2.37%. The national styrene inventory is 193,863 tons, with a decrease of 9,411 tons; the total inventory in East China's main ports is 19.65 million tons, with a decrease of 0.54 million tons; the trade inventory in East China's main ports is 12.15 million tons, with an increase of 0.51 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 40.74% (down 2.37%), 72.5% (up 1.5%), 54.6% (down 1.7%), 20% (down 7%), and 70.05% (down 0.27%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th , China's styrene factory output was 347,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3%; the capacity utilization rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2.37% [2]. - From October 3rd to 9th , the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 239,800 tons [2]. - As of October 9th , the styrene factory inventory was 193,900 tons, a decrease of 4.63% from the previous period. As of October 13th , the styrene inventory in East China's ports was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 2.67% from the previous period; the inventory in South China's ports was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 11.59% [2]. - As of October 13th , the non - integrated cost of styrene was 7,204.32 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 499.32 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1: Spot Market - The spot prices in North China are at 6890 (-60), East China at 6950 (-50), and South China at 7130 (-50), indicating a general decline of around 50 [1] - The market sentiment is weak, with low transaction volumes primarily driven by essential demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Inventory Data - The capacity utilization rate stands at 81.24%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% [2] - The average operating rate of downstream PE is at 44.36%, with a minor increase of 0.23% [2] Group 3: Inventory and Market Outlook - Upstream equity inventory has accumulated to 105,900 tons [3] - The peak of PE maintenance has been observed, with significant inventory pressure expected in October due to the return of maintenance facilities and increased imports, while downstream demand remains lackluster [3] Group 4: Strategy - The current market strategy is to remain observant [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, and industrial sectors, indicating a mixed economic outlook with specific areas of concern such as low PMI indices and fluctuating commodity prices. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is at -2.8 percentage points in August 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is at $4018 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI index for September is at 45.2%, marking a six-month low [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 0.62%, cement price index down by 0.89%, rubber down by 1.35%, coke up by 3.65%, coking coal up by 0.30%, and iron ore down by 1.01% [5] - The average daily crude steel output from key enterprises in late September decreased by 8.88% month-on-month [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and glass increased by 0.77% and remained unchanged, respectively, while glass gross profit is at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide gross profit is at -1082 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year low of 46.51%, down by 27.07 percentage points [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.50%, copper up by 5.02%, and aluminum up by 0.91% [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum continues to reach historical highs [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 21020 yuan/ton, with a calculated profit of 3854 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 5.14% month-on-month [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is at 86830 yuan/ton, up by 5.02% [8] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a 14-month low [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.06 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 140 yuan/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 440 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton [9] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 is at 47.80%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1014.78 points, down by 6.68% [10] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel is at 77.20%, down by 0.90 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.51%, with the best-performing sector being industrial metals, up by 5.35% [11] - The PB ratio for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is at 40.18% and 97.52%, respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production has reached a historical high in September 2025, indicating strong demand in the sector [2]. - The steel PMI index dropped to 45.2% in September, marking a six-month low, which reflects challenges in the construction and real estate sectors [24][45]. - The report notes that the profitability of titanium dioxide and flat glass remains low, with significant negative margins reported [78]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity Indicators - The London gold spot price reached a historical high of $4018 per ounce, reflecting increased global liquidity and risk appetite [11]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was at 46.37 in August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [20]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national steel PMI index for September was reported at 45.2%, the lowest in six months, indicating a slowdown in construction activity [24][45]. - The average daily crude steel production for key enterprises in late September decreased by 8.88% month-on-month [45]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was at a five-year low, with a significant month-on-month decline of 27.07 percentage points [2]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum was reported at 21,020 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.91% [10]. Subsector Performance - The report indicates that the profitability of titanium dioxide was negative at -1,082 yuan per ton, while flat glass had a negative margin of -58 yuan per ton [78]. - The operating rate for flat glass was reported at 76.01% [78]. Price Comparisons - The report notes that the price ratio of London spot gold to silver reached a 14-month low, indicating shifts in market dynamics [3]. - The price of rebar was reported at 3,260 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.6% [10]. Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 was reported at 47.80%, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic pure benzene supply and demand remain weak, and the profit of petroleum benzene continues to be at a low level. This week, some domestic petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene plants are restarting, and the output of pure benzene is expected to increase further. In October, new plants of downstream styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are planned to be put into operation, with a converted production capacity higher than that of pure benzene. However, large styrene plants are still in the maintenance period, and the loads of caprolactam, phenol, and adipic acid plants are expected to decline this week, so the demand side will remain weak in the short term. Affected by the US's claim of imposing additional tariffs on China, international oil prices dropped significantly on Friday. After the early negative factors are digested, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the range expected to be around 5650 - 5750 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5682 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the settlement price was 5707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan. The trading volume was 6668 lots, an increase of 2255 lots; the open interest was 13554 lots, an increase of 23 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions were 5720 yuan/ton, 5570 yuan/ton, 5750 yuan/ton, and 5521 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in the Northeast region decreased by 62 yuan/ton, while the others remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions were 5675 yuan/ton and 5450 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 50 yuan/ton and 250 yuan/ton. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 693 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 706.11 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.39 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 65.08 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.57 dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 576.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 46.02 tons, an increase of 0.32 tons. The terminal inventory of pure benzene at ports was 9.1 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 73.61%, an increase of 2.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 95.72%, 78.54%, 69.24%, and 64.3% respectively. The capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased by 6.41 percentage points, adipic acid increased by 2 percentage points, while phenol decreased by 0.46 percentage points and aniline decreased by 0.1 percentage point [2] Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.55% to 79.29% week-on-week, and that of hydrobenzene decreased by 0.75% to 63.24% week-on-week. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 1.56% to 77.72% week-on-week. As of October 13th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 9.0 tons, a decrease of 1.10% compared with last week. From October 9th to 11th, the profit of petroleum benzene in China was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton compared with last week [2]