1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strongly bullish", "bullish with fluctuations", "sideways", "bearish with fluctuations", and "strongly bearish" [4][277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel - Iran conflict, have intensified, leading to increased volatility in oil prices and a bullish trend in the energy and chemical sector. Chemical products are experiencing a catch - up rally due to the persistent strength of crude oil prices [2][3]. - The supply of some chemical products such as methanol and urea has been affected by the Israel - Iran conflict. The polyester chain's raw material PTA has seen a rapid increase in basis, and the market is expected to be dominated by long - short configurations [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to greater price volatility. API data shows a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but the gasoline drawdown was relatively small. The IEA monthly report has lowered the annual demand growth forecast and raised the supply forecast. Short - term, Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate price fluctuations [8]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil is oscillating, and asphalt futures prices are also oscillating. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, which will put pressure on the asphalt crack spread. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north than in the south [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is oscillating at a high level. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock has decreased significantly. Although there is some support from Egypt's procurement, the overall supply - demand situation is bearish [10][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows the oscillation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13][14]. - **Methanol**: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is oscillating with a bullish bias. Iranian methanol supply disruptions can significantly affect China's methanol prices [25]. - **Urea**: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a bullish trend in the futures market. Although the current supply is high, the start of domestic and foreign demand is imminent [26]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Future arrivals are still limited, and EG will continue to be in a bullish pattern [19]. - **PX**: The supply - demand support has weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to crude oil trends. The supply capacity of Asian PX is steadily increasing, and the support effect of the domestic PX supply - demand fundamentals is slowing down [16]. - **PTA**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it will follow crude oil in the short term. The overall performance of PTA is still good, but the polyester production cut pressure may form a negative feedback [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: It will continue to oscillate bullishly following its raw materials. The PF fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement, and the supply pressure has been alleviated [20][21]. - **Bottle Chips**: The industry is stable, and the downside space of bottle chip processing fees is limited. Bottle chip enterprises have announced maintenance plans, indicating that the current processing fees cannot be sustained [21][23]. - **PP**: With the uncertainty of Middle East disturbances, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The supply is still increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [30]. - **Plastic**: It will fluctuate with oil prices in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The current fundamentals are still under pressure, and the downstream demand is cautious [29]. - **Styrene**: As crude oil prices have declined, styrene is in a weak consolidation phase. The future rebound drive is not sustainable, and both supply and demand are bearish [17]. - **PVC**: The dynamic cost has increased, and PVC is oscillating. Although the supply - demand outlook is bearish, the cost center has shifted upward [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, it is in a bearish trend. In June, the supply and demand were both weak, and in July, supply is expected to increase while demand remains weak [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and changes in inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of SC is 5, with a change of - 6 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts for different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 156, with a change of 23, and the number of warehouse receipts is 94,510 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the latest values and changes in inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 308, with a change of 3 [36].

受行业周期、经济环境、市场竞争等多方因素影响， 今年以来世界化工巨头因精简瘦身所推进的业务变动、工厂关停等动作尤为频繁。 【DT新材料】 获悉，6月17日， 奥升德功能材料公司 宣布，决定开始有序关闭位于中国连云港市的己二胺生产工厂 。 奥升德 方面表示，这一决定是在对该工厂在不断变化的市场动态和监管环境下的长期可行性进行全面评估后所做出的。此外 ，公司在中国的其他业 务，包括苏州生产基地，将继续正常运营，并预计于今年下半年完成《美国破产法》第十一章流程，进一步优化业务结构。 据了解， 奥升德连云港己二胺生产工厂 是公司在美国以外的第一座化工生产基地，也是其在美国以外的最大投资项目。该项目位于江苏省连云港市徐 圩新区， 2022年1月签约、9月开工，2023年10月试产，2024年10月正式开业。 工厂一期投资约12.9亿元人民币，原计划年产20万吨己二胺，投 产后使奥升德全球己二胺产能提升了约50% 。工厂 关闭后，公司产能核心将回归美国本土基地。 奥升德 是全球最大的尼龙66一体化生产商， 在北美、欧洲和亚洲均设有全球生产基地 ， 产品广泛应用于汽车、电子电气、工业纤维、消费品等诸多 领域。2025年迄今 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价高开低走，因地缘可能缓和施压油价，其中 WTI 7 月合 | | | | 约收盘下跌 1.21 美元至 71.77 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。布伦特 8 月 | | | | 合约收盘下跌 1.00 美元至 73.23 美元/桶，跌幅 1.35%。日内油价 | | | | 高低点振幅约为 8 美元/桶，市场波动急剧放大。SC2507 以 530.4 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 10.5 元/桶，跌幅为 1.94%。美国总统特朗普证 | | | | 实，伊朗已通过中间人发出信号，表示希望缓和冲突。而当前以 | | | | 伊冲突远未走向和平，油价仍面临波动较大的格局。OPEC 月报 | | | | 显示，5 月 OPEC+原油日产量平均为 4123 万桶，比 4 月增加 18 | | | 原油 | 万桶，此前 OPEC+曾宣布增产。OPEC 将 2025 年全球原油需求 | 震荡 | | | 增速预期维持在 130 万桶/日； ...

直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 28. 00% 134. 00% 162. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67. 00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始欲德 ■T325加工费(右轴) t325年演到价格 会想坝金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2025-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 2500 10000 22500 4000 涂棉纱利润 泽棉纱65/35 4 ...

装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/6/17 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/13 | 2025/6/16 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 529.9 | 541.6 | 11. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情窄幅下跌,主因是下游聚酯瓶片大厂计 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 931.2 | 830. 1 | -101.03 | 划联合减产,利空PTA需求,弱化了华东一套PTA装置 | | | | | | | 减产的影响。PTA现货流动性偏紧,现货基差偏强。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The transformative caprolactam technology developed by the Sinopec Petroleum and Chemical Research Institute has been recognized as internationally leading, addressing key challenges in the domestic caprolactam industry [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - Caprolactam is a crucial monomer for nylon 6, widely used in various sectors, but its production is energy-intensive and environmentally harmful [2] - Historically, China relied on imports for caprolactam, leading to significant investments to establish domestic production, which faced high costs and pollution issues [2] - The domestic caprolactam industry faces three major barriers: low carbon atom utilization and high emissions in traditional cyclohexanone production, technological restrictions on hydrogen peroxide, and quality issues in high-end applications [2] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The research team has pioneered a new cyclohexanone production technology that improves carbon atom utilization from 80% to over 95% and reduces waste emissions by 90% [3] - A novel fluidized bed technology for hydrogen peroxide production has been developed, enhancing safety and efficiency [3] - Key technologies have been created to improve the intrinsic quality of caprolactam, enabling it to meet high-speed spinning requirements and reducing CO2 and waste emissions by 43% and 73% respectively [4] Group 3: Collaborative Development - The successful industrialization of the new caprolactam technology is attributed to a collaborative innovation mechanism involving multiple stakeholders, including Sinopec and various research institutions [5] - The new technology has led to the establishment of the world's largest and most advanced caprolactam production facility, achieving significant reductions in CO2 and pollutant emissions, as well as production costs [5] - In 2024, this transformative technology is set to be recognized as one of the 30 major engineering projects by the Chinese Academy of Engineering [5]

Group 1 - A new catalyst has been developed by researchers from Anhui University of Technology and other institutions, enabling the direct synthesis of para-xylene from carbon dioxide and hydrogen, breaking the world record for production efficiency of such catalysts [1][2] - Para-xylene (PX) is a critical raw material for producing chemical products, with an annual demand in China exceeding 30 million tons. The traditional production method relies on processing heavy oil, which is energy-intensive and generates high emissions [1] - The new method utilizes renewable energy to produce hydrogen, which is then reacted with carbon dioxide to manufacture PX, offering a greener alternative to conventional high-energy and high-emission production processes [1] Group 2 - The newly developed "metal oxide-molecular sieve" composite catalyst operates in two parts: the metal oxide facilitates the reaction between carbon dioxide and hydrogen to form simple olefins, while the molecular sieve assembles these olefins into the final PX product [2] - The molecular sieve has been designed with a unique "capsulation" approach to minimize impurities in the final product, resulting in unprecedented production efficiency, with over 1 kilogram of PX produced per kilogram of catalyst in a day [2] - The design concept of the composite catalyst is considered universal, with potential applications in other reaction systems that utilize carbon dioxide and hydrogen to produce high-value chemical products, enabling customized production [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Government has released the "Henan Province Port Industry Development Plan (2025-2035)", aiming to establish a convenient waterway for the central region to access the sea and develop a port industry framework characterized by "three cores leading, five belts coordinating, and multiple points supporting" [1] Group 1: Port Industry Development Framework - Henan will construct a "1+6+N" port industry development system, focusing on the logistics industry as the leading sector and six categories of manufacturing including advanced equipment, steel, new materials, food, light industry and textiles, and new energy vehicles, along with various service industries [3] - The plan emphasizes the cultivation of ten key port industry chains, including power equipment, shipbuilding, engineering machinery, advanced steel materials, chemical new materials, green building materials, deep processing of agricultural products, textiles and clothing, home furnishings, and new energy vehicles [3] Group 2: Chemical New Materials Focus - In the area of port chemical new materials, the plan aims for breakthroughs in advanced polymer materials, electronic chemicals, and titanium-based new materials, accelerating the formation of a chemical industry cluster [3] - The chemical new materials industry chain will enhance advantages in salt chemical, fluorine chemical, and bio-chemical sectors, promoting the transformation and upgrading of coal chemical processes, and strengthening key segments such as nylon textiles, polyurethane, biodegradable plastics, engineering plastics, and fluorine-based new materials [3] Group 3: Regional Development and Economic Goals - The plan outlines the establishment of three core port development areas in Zhoukou, Xinyang, and Zhengzhou, and the cultivation of five economic belts along rivers including the Sayng River, Huai River, Jialu River, Tangbai River, and Tuohe River [4] - By 2030, the scale of Henan's port industry is expected to exceed one trillion yuan, forming over nine port industry clusters with a scale of one hundred billion yuan, and achieving trillion and hundred billion levels for ten key port industry chains, moving towards high-end development [4]

近期化工园区安全事故多发，后续对于涉及硝化、氯化等高危化工反应的项目审批和生产监管将进一步趋严。 化工行业头部企业凭借更严格的安全生产管控流程、更优质的生产装置设备、更先进的工艺生产技术，将保障 存量高危化工反应装置的有序生产。化工行业头部企业在涉及高危反应的中间体、产品增量受限的情形下，可 以凭借现有产品的稳定生产而受益。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 近期化工园区安全事故多发，环保趋严背景下化工行业头部企业有望充分受益 风险分析： 原材料快速下跌和维持高位的风险；下游需求不及预期风险。 发布日期： 2025-06-16 免责声明 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研 ...

特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 【金工】市场风格或有切换——金融工程市场跟踪周报20250615 本周市场震荡收跌，主要宽基指数仅创业板指实现上涨。资金面方面，本周ETF延续净流出，大盘ETF为净流 出主力。近期市场逐步从宽幅震荡过渡至窄幅震荡，指数运行区间收缩过程中量能整体亦有放大，且高位常伴 资金止盈——后市运行或转向弱市整固。风格层面，前期以北证、微盘为代表的极小市值方向或有持续调整压 力，短期或呈现大市值占优特点。 （祁嫣然/张威）2025-06-15 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【有色】5月国内废铜产量9.2万吨，同比下降20%、环比上升5%——铜行业周报（20250609-20250613） 小结：贸易冲突对经济负面影响尚未完全显现， ...