Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) expansion cycle and the value addition of waste oil resources, alongside significant funding for ecological restoration and pipeline construction in the Yangtze River protection initiative [1][12] - The 2026 strategy for the environmental sector focuses on a dual approach of value and growth resonance, driven by carbon neutrality goals [20] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The SAF market is projected to see a significant increase in demand, with EU mandates requiring a gradual rise in SAF usage from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050, translating to a demand of 3.662 million tons by 2050 [12] - Domestic SAF production capacity is expected to reach 1.2 million tons per year by the end of 2025, with planned capacity of 4.4 million tons [12] - The report highlights a 50%+ increase in SAF prices compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a tightening supply situation [12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in waste oil resource utilization, such as Shanhigh Environmental and Longkun Technology, as the value of waste oil is expected to rise due to increased SAF demand [14] - Companies in the water treatment sector, such as BWS and Energy Conservation Guozhen, are recommended due to the ongoing construction of sewage pipelines and ecological restoration projects funded by over 100 billion yuan [19] Market Performance - The report notes a 64.01% year-on-year increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a penetration rate of 18.6% [26] - The average price of biodiesel has decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton, with a corresponding drop in profitability [35] - Lithium battery recycling profitability is improving, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 18.1% week-on-week [36]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the market is expected to improve, but the industry is still weak. Unilateral strategies can adopt a volatile mindset, and hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled. [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the fundamentals continue to be under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. There is a high risk of a decline despite policy support. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the spot market may start restocking after the futures rebound. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - For iron ore, the price has fallen back after hitting a resistance level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel - Weekend spot prices fluctuated little with light trading volume. The macro liquidity is abundant, and the commodity capital rotation logic remains valid. The iron ore price rose first, causing the basis to weaken and attracting cash-and-carry arbitrage. The iron production is increasing, and the pressure on plate destocking persists. The price has support at low levels. [2] - Strategies include using a range-bound approach for unilateral trading, rolling hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage, or using options to assist in spot procurement and sales. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market sentiment is changeable, leading to significant price fluctuations. The demand is affected by poor steel prices and low mill profits, and it is difficult to improve in the off-season. The supply is high despite low alloy plant profits. There are policy supports and cost pressures, but the outlook is uncertain. [3] - Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has shifted from a fifth-round price cut expectation to a 1 - 2 round price increase expectation. The futures market rose on Wednesday due to supply-side news. The long-term coal supply is expected to optimize. The industry data is weak in the off-season, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. [7] Iron Ore - The price fell after hitting a resistance level due to the resonance of the commodity index and market rumors. The valuation is moderately high, and there is inventory pressure. The steel demand has slightly declined, and the overall fluctuation is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines. [7] Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: On January 9th, the closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of far-month and near-month contracts of various products (such as RB2610, HC2610) are provided, along with cross-month spreads, price differences, and profit margins. [1] - Spot: On January 9th, the spot prices and price changes of various products (such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar) in different regions are presented, as well as basis values. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ambitious goals and strategic plans of Yuan Cheng New Energy Commercial Vehicles as it enters the "3.0 era," aiming to become the top seller in both domestic and global new energy commercial vehicle markets by 2030, with a target of 1 million annual sales [1][10]. Group 1: Strategic Goals and Market Performance - Yuan Cheng aims to achieve an annual sales target of 1 million vehicles by 2030, positioning itself as the leader in both domestic and global new energy commercial vehicle sales [1]. - In 2025, Yuan Cheng's commercial vehicle sales are projected to exceed 160,000 units, with cumulative sales surpassing 500,000 units, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 120% since 2020 [3]. - The company has established a sales target of 260,000 units for 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the commercial vehicle sector [5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Product Development - Yuan Cheng focuses on two core technology routes: "alcohol-hydrogen + electric," continuously leading the industry through innovation and product optimization [7]. - The company has launched a series of new energy commercial vehicle products tailored to various market segments, including urban logistics and intercity transportation, which have gained significant traction among logistics companies and individual transport operators [8]. - The introduction of the "X platform" enhances the company's competitive edge, offering a wide range of specifications for electric and alcohol-hydrogen vehicles, outperforming industry averages [15]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Competitive Landscape - Yuan Cheng has achieved significant growth in overseas markets, with exports leading in key regions such as the UK, Spain, and Australia, and a nearly 500% year-on-year increase in overseas business [5]. - The new energy commercial vehicle industry is expected to see a penetration rate of 30% in 2025, rising to 40% in 2026, and over 70% by 2030, indicating a rapidly evolving competitive landscape [12]. - The favorable policy environment, including investments in artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing, provides opportunities for Yuan Cheng to expand its market presence [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Positioning - Yuan Cheng is committed to building a green and intelligent transportation ecosystem, focusing on user needs and market-driven product development [21]. - The company plans to launch various new models in 2026, including advanced electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles, as well as autonomous driving solutions, to cover all market scenarios [19]. - With a clear strategic path and strong technological foundation, Yuan Cheng aims to solidify its position as a global leader in the new energy commercial vehicle sector [21].

人民日报记者 董丝雨 蒋雪鸿 推动经济社会发展绿色化、低碳化是实现高质量发展的关键环节。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型，建设美丽中国。"中央经济工作会议部 署"坚持'双碳'引领，推动全面绿色转型"的重点任务。 落实中央经济工作会议精神，各地各部门坚定不移走生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳高质量发展道 路，协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，实现高水平保护、高品质环境、高质量发展良性互动、相得益 彰。 有计划分步骤实施碳达峰行动 中央经济工作会议提出，"深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造。制定能源强国建设规划纲要，加快新 型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应用。加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设。" 在"双碳"目标引领下，我国经济社会发展绿色转型驶入快车道。 重点行业节能降碳改造进程提速。 辽宁本溪市的鞍钢集团本钢板材公司，通过"电炉+转炉"短流程低碳冶金工艺生产出的汽车钢，可 实现综合降碳30%以上。 能源结构变革、冶炼工艺突破……百年钢企逐绿向新，顺利完成2025年碳达峰阶段性目标。本钢集 团战略规划部双碳管理经理满桐介绍，将聚焦实现前沿低碳冶金技术产业化突破，推动深度降碳工艺大 规模应用。 中央经济工作会议提 ...

——着力推进全年经济工作八大重点任务⑥ 推动经济社会发展绿色化、低碳化是实现高质量发展的关键环节。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型，建设美丽中国。"中央经济工作会议部 署"坚持'双碳'引领，推动全面绿色转型"的重点任务。 坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型（稳中求进、提质增效 实现"十五五"良好开局） 落实中央经济工作会议精神，各地各部门坚定不移走生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳高质量发展道 路，协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，实现高水平保护、高品质环境、高质量发展良性互动、相 得益彰。 有计划分步骤实施碳达峰行动 中央经济工作会议提出，"深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造。制定能源强国建设规划纲要，加快新 型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应用。加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设。" 在"双碳"目标引领下，我国经济社会发展绿色转型驶入快车道。 重点行业节能降碳改造进程提速。 辽宁本溪市的鞍钢集团本钢板材公司，通过"电炉+转炉"短流程低碳冶金工艺生产出的汽车钢，可 实现综合降碳30%以上。 能源结构变革、冶炼工艺突破……百年钢企逐绿向新，顺利完成2025年碳达峰阶段性目标。本钢集 团战略规划部双碳管理经理满桐介 ...

Group 1: Green Transition and Economic Development - The core viewpoint emphasizes that promoting green and low-carbon development is crucial for achieving high-quality economic growth, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the Central Economic Work Conference [1][2] - The implementation of carbon peak actions will be carried out in a planned and step-by-step manner, focusing on energy efficiency and carbon reduction in key industries, alongside the establishment of a new energy system [2][3] Group 2: Industry-Specific Initiatives - An example of a key industry making strides in energy efficiency is the Ansteel Group's Benxi Steel, which has achieved over 30% carbon reduction through low-carbon metallurgy processes [3] - The steel industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a goal to complete ultra-low emission modifications for 950 million tons of crude steel capacity by 2025 [3] Group 3: Renewable Energy Development - Inner Mongolia has made significant progress in green energy transition, with total installed capacity of renewable energy exceeding 170 million kilowatts, contributing over 80% of global photovoltaic components and 70% of wind power equipment [6][7] Group 4: Carbon Market and Emission Control - China has established the world's largest carbon market, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions from key industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum [7] - The carbon market aims to convert emission reduction pressures into internal motivation, encouraging participation in the green transition [7] Group 5: Pollution Prevention and Ecosystem Optimization - The Central Economic Work Conference has called for a comprehensive approach to pollution prevention, focusing on air, water, and soil protection, and enhancing ecosystem quality [9][10] - Significant improvements in water quality have been reported, with the proportion of good surface water bodies increasing from 64.1% to 90.4% [10] Group 6: Green Production and Lifestyle - The promotion of green production and lifestyle is a priority, with initiatives to integrate green development concepts into all aspects of economic and social development [12][13] - By the end of 2025, China aims to cultivate 6,430 green factories and 491 green industrial parks, promoting over 40,000 types of green products [13]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined eight key tasks for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of "innovation-driven development" and the role of technology in industry upgrades and high-quality development [1] - Non-bank financial institutions are encouraged to align with the conference's directives, focusing on serving the real economy and leveraging technological innovation as a driving force for breakthroughs in quality and efficiency [1] Group 2 - The conference has reiterated the commitment to "dual carbon" goals, promoting a comprehensive green transformation, which is a significant focus for trust companies and financial leasing institutions [2] - The emphasis on "innovative technology financial services" marks a new phase in the development of technology finance, integrating core elements like "technology" and "green" with the real economy [2] - Examples of practical applications include the use of big data and AI by companies like Industrial Bank Leasing to enhance risk management in green leasing [2] Group 3 - The carbon trading market is expected to enter a new stage of high-quality development, with the conference calling for strengthened national carbon emission trading market construction [4] - Trust companies are encouraged to explore carbon trusts centered around carbon quotas, leveraging the opportunity presented by the national carbon market to promote green trust development [4] - Accurate management of carbon data is highlighted as a critical area where AI can play a significant role in carbon trading infrastructure [4] Group 4 - Companies like Northern Trust are focusing on integrating AI into green finance, enhancing project selection, pricing, risk control, and post-investment monitoring through data-driven approaches [5] - The goal is to embed green concepts into public life and foster a culture of low-carbon development [5] Group 5 - Financial leasing companies are leveraging their unique "financing + leasing" attributes, supported by technology, to play an irreplaceable role in promoting green development [6] - Companies are implementing digital transformation strategies to enhance risk control and operational efficiency in green leasing [6] - The focus is on converting transformation outcomes into precise support for industrial upgrades [6] Group 6 - Financial leasing companies are urged to optimize their business structures, concentrating on high-end manufacturing, green energy, urban renewal, and retail sectors to align with modern industrial system construction [7]

期货研究报告 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2025-12-15 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 24888 | 25660 | 23288 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M0:同比 | % | 10.6 | 11.7 | 12.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.0 | -0.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M2:同比 | % ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodities are in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and in the short - term, the macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the supply is entering the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [6]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. - For coking coal and coke, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with attention to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but limited by high inventory and weak terminal orders. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, demand is weak, and the overall weak pattern remains unchanged [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3144 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.75%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55,633 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.7149 million lots, a decrease of 66,939 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 112,237 tons, an increase of 3536 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4171 million lots, a decrease of 23,805 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory decreased slightly. Rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory accumulated slightly. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news, and attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil de - stocking and "dual - carbon" policies [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 814.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.18% (+ 1.50). The position changed by + 3210 lots to 639,900 lots. The weighted position was 963,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.27% [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines ended, and the overseas shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil both declined, and the shipping volume from non - mainstream countries also decreased. The near - end arrival volume increased. Demand: The average daily pig iron output continued to rise, some blast furnaces resumed production, and the utilization rate of previously resumed blast furnaces recovered. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventory increased but was still at a low level, with some restocking demand [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.20% at 5904 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5740 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF603) closed down 0.64% at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated sharply, and the silicon iron price also fluctuated greatly, and both finally declined [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of silicon iron is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.46% at 1195.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.96% at 1748.0 yuan/ton. Different spot prices and their basis with the main contracts are provided [13]. - Last week, the coking coal price rose significantly, and the coke price also rose [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The rise of coking coal last week was driven by the positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of production capacity reduction. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8715 yuan/ton, up 2.11% (+ 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 13,806 lots to 379,975 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with corresponding basis [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The production in December was stable, the number of open furnaces in the southwest was at a low level, and the supply improvement was limited. The polysilicon production plan in January continued to decline, and if the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, it will impact the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 4.31% (- 2310). The weighted contract position decreased by 7303 lots to 97,286 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased, with a basis of 3700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment affected the price. The spot price increased before the Spring Festival, but the downstream is waiting and watching. If the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - Glass: On Friday, the main contract of glass closed at 1144 yuan/ton, down 1.63% (- 19). The inventory of float glass enterprises decreased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [24]. - Soda Ash: On Friday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 11). The inventory of soda ash enterprises increased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: The daily melting volume decreased, and the cost increased, boosting the price. However, the terminal orders are weak, and the high inventory restricts the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Soda Ash: The supply is stable, the demand from downstream glass industries decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [27].

本报记者 董丝雨 蒋雪鸿 高山村，光伏板遍布山头。 罗喜贵摄 广西梧州市苍梧县六堡镇六堡村的智慧农业茶园气象监测设备。 颜桂海摄 贵州毕节市威宁彝族回族苗族自治县双龙镇 甘肃张掖市临泽县的"三北"防护林网。 王 将摄 数据来源：自然资源部、生 态环境部、水利部等 推动经济社会发展绿色化、低碳化是实现高质量发展的关键环节。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型，建设美丽中国。"中央经济工作会议部 署"坚持'双碳'引领，推动全面绿色转型"的重点任务。 落实中央经济工作会议精神，各地各部门坚定不移走生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳高质量发展道路， 协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，实现高水平保护、高品质环境、高质量发展良性互动、相得益彰。 有计划分步骤实施碳达峰行动 中央经济工作会议提出，"深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造。制定能源强国建设规划纲要，加快新型能 源体系建设，扩大绿电应用。加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设。" 在"双碳"目标引领下，我国经济社会发展绿色转型驶入快车道。 重点行业节能降碳改造进程提速。 辽宁本溪市的鞍钢集团本钢板材公司，通过"电炉+转炉"短流程低碳冶金工艺生产出的汽车钢，可实现 综合 ...