Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the gold and silver markets showed significant upward trends. The outlook for the precious metals market in 2026 remains optimistic. The continued fiscal expansion of major countries, the expected further decline of the US dollar, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support the investment demand for gold. The industrial and investment demand for silver may also remain strong [2]. Summary by Directory Part I: Review of Precious Metals Market Gold Market Review - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold has experienced three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce, a nearly 24 - fold increase. From 1980 - 2000, it was a bear market. From 2001 - 2011, the price soared from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce, a 650% increase. From 2016 - 2025, it entered a new bull market [6]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the implementation of the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the London spot gold price rose from $2610.85/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $4500/ounce at the end of 2025, a cumulative increase of over 70%. The SHFE gold futures also showed a similar trend [13]. Silver Market Review - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, international silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, it soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce. From 1980 - 2000, it plummeted. From 2001 - 2011, it rose from $4/ounce to $49/ounce. From 2021 - 2025, it was driven by multiple factors to break through $80/ounce [18]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: The London spot silver price rose from $28.91/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $80/ounce at the end of 2025, with a maximum annual increase of over 170%. The SHFE silver also showed a similar upward trend [23]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices Impact of the US Economic Situation on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle is one of the underlying logics supporting the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, weakening the yields of traditional assets and increasing the attractiveness of gold [31]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a certain growth rate, but the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the medium - and long - term fiscal prospects, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [33]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [49]. Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices - In recent years, global central banks have continuously increased their gold reserves. In 2025, central banks' gold - buying pace accelerated in the third quarter. In 2026, the pace of central bank gold allocation may slow down [51]. Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold for risk - aversion. They also affect the supply and demand pattern of gold [56]. Part III: Analysis of Precious Metals Supply and Demand Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, and imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons. The global total gold supply in the first three quarters was 3717.4 tons [59]. - **Demand Analysis**: The global total gold demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was 3717.4 tons, showing a slight upward trend. China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year - on - year [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHFE gold inventory continued to rise, while COMEX gold inventory remained stable after an initial increase and then gradually declined slightly [65]. Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver supply in 2025 will increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [69]. - **Demand Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver demand in 2025 will decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces. Industrial demand will decrease slightly, while investment demand will increase by 7% [75]. - **Inventory Analysis**: SHFE, COMEX, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories all showed significant fluctuations in 2025 [78]. Part IV: Arbitrage and Position Analysis of the Precious Metals Market Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Domestic Gold Spot - Futures Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with occasional positive values presenting arbitrage opportunities [88]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large declines presenting arbitrage opportunities [91]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply, and its future direction is difficult to judge after breaking through the previous range [95]. - **Analysis of SHFE Gold Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE gold futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased with the rise in gold prices [97]. Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with large positive spreads appearing at the end of the year [106]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large fluctuations [108]. - **Analysis of SHFE Silver Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE silver futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased significantly with the rise in silver prices [111]. Part V: Analysis and Strategies of Precious Metals Options - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in recent years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while that of silver options shows more fluctuations, especially increasing when the silver price rises sharply [121]. - Different options strategies can be considered according to different price and volatility expectations, such as buying at - the - money call options, selling out - of - the - money put options, selling strangles, and buying straddles [122]. Part VI: Seasonal Analysis of Precious Metals - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals have a relatively high probability of rising in March, April, and October and a relatively high probability of falling in June [137]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Prediction of the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [146]. - **Orientation of US Government Policies in 2026 and Their Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, and the government will maintain a high fiscal deficit rate. The new Fed chairman may be more dovish, which is conducive to the rise of precious metals prices [150]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold investment demand increased significantly. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic, and the strategic value of allocating gold is still stable [151]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and $35/ounce [155]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [160].

摘要周三（12月31日）亚市盘中，贵金属经历踩踏式抛售后开始收复失地，金银窄幅震荡，现货黄金目 前交投于4370美元/盎司附近，现货白银交投于75.50美元附近。进入2025年末，黄金市场经历了剧烈的 过山车行情。纵观全年，黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼的一年。 金瑞期货：从宏观和基本面来看，明年美联储货币政策宽松利率回落的趋势并未发生改变，中长期包括 主权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，白银以及铂的供需矛盾也 持续存在，贵金属价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健 国投期货：隔夜贵金属转涨。美联储会议纪要显示官员分歧严重，不过大多数与会者认为如果通胀如预 期随时间下降，进一步下调利率可能是适当的。美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势，但资金 推动下涨幅过大，阶段性调整在所难免，短期谨慎参与，波动率下降后维持多头参与思路。 西南期货：当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和 避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。但近期贵金属大幅上涨，投机情绪显著升 温。预计市场波动将显著放大，多单可离场后暂 ...

Core Insights - Gold is expected to be the best-performing asset class in 2025, driven by four key factors that will also influence its price movements in 2026 [1] Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Price - The two main macro drivers for gold's success in 2025 are geopolitical tensions and a generally weak US dollar along with moderate interest rate declines [2] - Central banks continue to be strong and stable net buyers of gold, although their purchasing pace has slowed compared to the past two years [2] - A balanced contribution from four main factors—economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum—each accounting for approximately 10% of gold's performance [2] Group 2: Future Expectations and Economic Conditions - If the US economy shows a mild decline, it could lead to Federal Reserve rate cuts and further dollar weakness, potentially supporting gold prices by 5% to 15% [3] - In the event of significant economic deterioration, investment demand for gold could surge, with potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [3] - The risk premium associated with gold may decrease if US economic policies yield positive results, potentially leading to a price drop of 5% to 20% [3] Group 3: Central Bank Demand and Recycling Risks - Strong central bank demand is influenced by macro and policy decisions, with continued buying expected to support gold prices [4] - A decline in central bank demand below 600 to 700 tons could exert pressure on future gold prices [4] - In India, gold jewelry is being used as collateral for loans, and an economic downturn could lead to forced liquidations, increasing supply and suppressing gold prices [5]

【要闻速递】 据CME"美联储观察"，市场对美联储未来降息预期趋于保守：明年1月降息25基点的概率仅14.9%，维 持利率不变概率高达85.1%；到3月累计降息25基点的概率为45.2%，维持不变48.3%，累计降息50基点 仅6.5%。 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自 1979年以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求， 以及大量资金流入黄金ETF。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自1979年 以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求，以及大 量资金流入黄金ETF。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势与10月21日高度相似：价格在暴跌后出现技术性修正，晚间于4403一线承压回落。今日金 价徘徊于5-10日均线附近，尾盘最低下探近70美元。 日线图上，大阴之后收出带长上影的小阳孕线，整体仍处于修正下跌格局，与4380前一轮下跌形成对 称，预示后市震荡后仍将进一步下探至下方支撑区域。 多周期压 ...

芝商所上调保证金触发集中抛售 据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为986.34元/克，上涨0.04%。 国际黄金价格报4350.4美元/盎司，下跌0.82%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 央行购金长期支撑与短期避险降温交织 2025年全球央行前三季度净购黄金634吨，全年购金需求创纪录，95%的央行预期未来继续增持，为金 价提供长期支撑。但近期乌克兰和平谈判出现初步进展，短期避险情绪降温，叠加美元短线走强，共同 推动金价阶段性回调，长期上涨逻辑未被打破。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 芝商所宣布上调贵金属等金属期货履约保证金超10%，叠加年末交易流动性稀薄，大量投资者赶在新规 生效前集中卖出平仓，引发12月29日国际贵金属价格大幅下跌，后续迎来阶段性反弹。此次调整被视为 打压短期过热行情的导火线，加剧多头被动减仓放大短期波动。 年末获利了结叠加技术超买回调 2025年黄金累计涨幅近70%，12月26日现货金价触及4549.92美元历史新高后，技术指标长期处于超买 区间。年末投资者 ...

黄金暴涨之后，市场关注未来走势，尤其关注近年不可忽视的购买力量——央行。近年央行购金不仅规 模大、速度快，还展现出"黄金回家"等非常规操作。 拆解央行购金、持金的微观逻辑之后，大家获知两点：当前共知的世界黄金协会给定数据，并非央行购 金全貌；近年国际政局动荡，央行基于战略需求增持黄金，在购金渠道以及窖藏方式上更为多样，也导 致了传统渠道追踪央行购金难度加大。 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研报称，2025年是黄金历史上无法绕开的一个年份，不仅因为单 年黄金价格大幅上涨，贵金属可以说众多资产中表现最为优异，更重要的是当前央行黄金储备3.6万 吨，接近布雷顿森林体系时代，且当前央行持有黄金的市值超过4万亿美元，超过欧元储备，直逼美 元。 中信建投主要观点如下： 按市场价格计算，黄金价值已经突破4万亿美元，去年黄金占全球外汇储备的比例已经升至20%，超越 16%的欧元，仅次于46%的美元，一举成为全球第二储备资产。 央行购金是近年黄金分析一股不可忽视的力量。但是关于央行购金的细节，不论是微观操作——央行如 何买金，在何地窖藏黄金，通常使用的央行购金和黄金储备数据又反映了哪个口径下的央行黄金行为， 这些细节都缺 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Black Industry - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] Financial - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] Light Industry - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Rising [4] - Double - offset paper: Stable oscillation [4] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Bullish [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Oscillation [9] Polyester - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low - level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various industries including black industry, finance, light industry, oilseeds and oils, agricultural products, soft commodities, and polyester It evaluates the current supply - demand situation, policy impacts, and market trends of each industry's products and provides corresponding investment ratings and short - to medium - term trend predictions [2][3][4][6][7][9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - **Iron ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory remain unchanged The real demand is weak, but short - term policy changes bring bullish sentiment, and the futures continue a technical rebound Long - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after restocking [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to be proposed by the end of the month and implemented in early January End - of - year production capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies provide support, but steel export policies may have a negative impact on raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Policy changes bring short - term bullish sentiment, but steel export policies may reduce export volume and impact raw material prices The current steel price is expected to remain bottom - oscillating [2] - **Glass**: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with high inventory due to weak demand Attention should be paid to macro policies and production line cold - repair [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term oscillation, with some sectors showing capital inflows or outflows The scale of public funds has reached a new high, but stock and hybrid funds have declined [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations The bond market shows a slight rebound [3] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic data affect its price It is currently in a short - term correction [3] Light Industry - **Logs**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with supply pressure easing and demand relatively weak The price is expected to oscillate [4] - **Pulp**: The cost supports the pulp price, but demand is weak due to low profitability in the papermaking industry and high inventory in paper mills The price may oscillate [4] - **Double - offset paper**: The supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support Price increases are expected to continue, but the fundamental support is weak [4] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in November, and the inventory pressure is high The demand for bio - diesel is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant The market is oscillating bearish [6] - **Meals**: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the supply of soybean meal will be sufficient in the future The price is expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline, and demand is expected to increase due to the approaching New Year's Day The pig price is expected to rise slightly [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Production in major domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand is weakly supported The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to oscillate [9] Polyester - **PX**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine increases supply risks, and the PX price is in wide - range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations affect the cost, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term outlook is poor The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: There is long - term inventory pressure, but imports may decrease in the next two months The price is in low - level oscillation [9] - **PR**: Supply increases, and the market is under pressure, expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PF**: The inventory is low, but downstream orders are insufficient The market is expected to oscillate [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking after a bullish trend, but the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchasing trends [1][5][6]. Price Movements - On December 29, gold opened at $4537.12 per ounce, peaked at $4548.58, and then fell to a low of $4303.73, closing at $4331.93, marking a daily decline of $202.19 or 4.46% [3][5]. - The price volatility for the day was $244.85, indicating significant market fluctuations [3]. Market Influences - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the FHFA House Price Index and Chicago PMI, are expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes are anticipated to have limited positive impact on gold prices, with the market likely to remain in a consolidation phase [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish perspective on gold remains unchanged due to global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and inflation hedging demands [5][6]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key driver for gold price increases, with a target of $5000 per ounce by 2026 being considered achievable [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a potential for gold to test support levels around $4000-$3900, with a bullish outlook if it breaks above previous resistance levels [8][10]. - Daily charts show that gold is currently supported by key moving averages, suggesting opportunities for bullish positions [12]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $4315 or $4260 and resistance at $4380 or $4440 for gold, with similar levels provided for silver [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of over $4,500 per ounce, is driven by multiple factors including the U.S. monetary policy shift towards easing, declining inflation, and increased demand from central banks and ETFs [1][6][10]. Group 1: Drivers of Gold Price Increase - The primary driver of the recent gold price increase is the adjustment in global monetary policy, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates three times in 2025, each by 25 basis points, and to initiate short-term Treasury bond purchases [6][7]. - The expectation of continued rate cuts in 2026, as indicated by the Fed's forward guidance, has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, prompting a shift of capital from traditional assets to gold [7][8]. - The current U.S. inflation rate is around 3%, and with weak non-farm employment data, there is a strong expectation for further monetary easing, which is supportive of gold prices [7][9]. Group 2: Weakening Dollar and Its Impact - The U.S. dollar is facing challenges that are undermining its credit foundation, leading to a decline in investor confidence in the dollar system and pushing it into a depreciation phase [10]. - As a result, gold's value as a safe-haven asset is being fully realized, attracting global capital allocation towards gold as an alternative to the weakening dollar [10]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, which has become a significant support for rising gold prices. This trend is characterized by large-scale and sustained purchases of gold [13][16]. - As of November 2025, China's gold reserves reached 7.412 million ounces, with a continuous increase for 13 months, reflecting a broader trend among central banks to enhance the proportion of gold in their reserve assets [13][16]. - The World Gold Council reported a net purchase of 53 tons of gold by central banks in October, marking a 36% increase month-over-month and setting a record for the year [13][16].

Macro News - The total global M&A transaction volume has exceeded $4 trillion, reaching $4.5 trillion, marking the second-highest level in history, only behind the 2021 M&A surge. More than half of this volume comes from the United States, with transactions involving U.S. companies totaling $2.3 trillion [1] - The European Union reported a trade surplus of approximately €1.5 billion with Russia in Q3 2025, marking the second consecutive quarter of surplus in trade with Russia and the first such occurrence since 2002 [1] Institutional Views - Precious metals prices generally declined in the previous trading day, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.31% to $4,562.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce. Weak non-farm payroll and CPI data have slightly revived market expectations for interest rate cuts, supporting gold and silver prices [1] - Silver continues to be influenced by both industrial and financial attributes, experiencing strong growth driven by supply-demand gaps and tight spot markets. Long-term core drivers for gold and silver prices remain robust, including sovereign debt issues, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases driven by de-dollarization [1] - The operational range for Comex gold is projected between $4,500 and $4,600 per ounce, while the operational range for Shanghai gold is between ¥1,000 and ¥1,050 per gram. Comex silver is expected to operate between $72 and $80 per ounce, and Shanghai silver between ¥17,200 and ¥19,500 per kilogram [1]