Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have surprised many, with prices rising sharply after a brief decline following the May Day holiday [2][3] - The volatility in gold prices is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic data from the U.S., and central bank purchasing behavior [5][6] Price Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce on April 22 to $3220 per ounce by May 4, marking an 8% decrease [2] - Following the holiday, gold prices rebounded sharply, with spot gold rising over $80 to exceed $3360 per ounce on May 6, representing a 2.75% increase in just one day [3] Factors Behind Price Changes - The announcement of a 100% tariff on imported films by Trump led to a sell-off in U.S. entertainment stocks, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [5] - Mixed economic indicators from the U.S., including a decline in GDP and rising unemployment claims, have shifted expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakening the dollar and increasing gold demand [5] - Geopolitical instability, including conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, has further driven investors towards gold as a safe haven [5] Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with a reported 12% increase in gold buying in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year [6] - India's gold reserves now account for over 9% of its total reserves, indicating a trend of reducing reliance on the dollar and increasing demand for gold [6] Implications for Retail Investors - The volatility in gold prices poses risks for retail investors, as rapid price changes can lead to significant losses [7] - While some consumers have taken advantage of lower prices to purchase gold jewelry and bars, the resale value of such items often does not match the purchase price, making it a less favorable investment [7] - The fluctuations in gold prices serve as a reminder of the complexities of financial markets, suggesting that investors should seek expert analysis before making investment decisions [7][8]

4月30日，世界黄金协会（WGC）发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在金价创纪录 地突破3000美元/盎司大关的情况下，一季度全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1206吨，同比增长 1%。 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师Louise Street表示，今年全球市场开局动荡，贸易争端频发、地缘政治局 势持续紧张、全球经济衰退担忧等因素共同导致投资者面临高度不确定的市场环境。在此背景下，黄金 投资需求激增，推动一季度黄金需求总量升至2016年以来同期最高水平。 报告显示，黄金ETF需求复苏，推动一季度黄金投资需求总量同比增长170%，达552吨，创2022年一季 度以来最高季度水平。金价涨势及美国关税政策的不确定性促使投资者纷纷涌向黄金市场，进而推动全 球黄金ETF加速流入，一季度累计流入量达226吨。 "过去10个月，投资者纷纷把目光转向黄金ETF，持续加大配置力度。"Louise Street表示，今年亚洲地区 的黄金ETF流入量仅在4月份就已超过该地区一季度的总和。不过，该板块仍有增长空间，目前全球黄 金ETF持仓量仍比2020年的峰值低10%。 同时，在中国激增的零售投资的带动下，一季度全球 ...

证券分析师 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 05 月 05 日 金价回调不改长期趋势，铜铝去库 支撑价格 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250428-20250502 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 0.49%，深证成指下跌 0.17%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 ...

金十数据5月2日讯，国际货币基金组织（IMF）和其他公开数据报告显示，各国央行3月份净买入17吨 黄金，总购买量为35吨，出售量18吨，其中乌兹别克斯坦报告净出售11吨。今年第一季度结束之际，黄 金需求依然强劲。 订阅黄金市场动态 +订阅 全球央行3月净购入黄金17吨 ...

汇丰：预计2025年央行将购买黄金925吨，较之前预测的790吨有所上升。 ...

作 者丨易妍君，彭卓 编 辑丨张星，梁明，江佩佩 4月2 2日市场震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一， 沪指重回3 3 0 0点上方 。截至早盘收盘，沪指涨0 . 3 1%，深成指跌0 . 4 1%，创业板指跌0 . 9 8%。盘 面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少， 全市场超3 1 0 0只个股下跌 。 | | | 3 0 元 / 克 关 口，续 创 历 史 新 高 。 高盛近期更新了预测，预计到2 0 2 5年年底，现货黄金价格将达到3 7 0 0美元/盎司，而到2 0 2 6年年中将攀升至4 0 0 0美元/盎司。 | | | FRENCE OF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | SHFE更全 | 833.48 | 35.02 | 4.39% | 34.26% | | SGE#31+D | 831.02 | 31.42 | 3.93% | 35.16% | | SGE黄金9999 | 831.80 | 27.69 | 3.44% | 35.30% | | 上海金 | 821.75 | 17.91 | 2.2 ...

Group 1 - The article outlines significant events over the past decade that have influenced gold prices, highlighting the interplay of global economic cycles, monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment [21] - In 2016, Brexit and Trump's election led to a surge in safe-haven demand, with global central bank gold purchases increasing by 15% to 430 tons [2] - The trade war between the US and China from 2018 to 2019 weakened global economic expectations, resulting in gold prices rising over 30% from their 2018 lows, with gold ETF holdings reaching record highs [4][5] Group 2 - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a global economic shutdown, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to zero and initiate unlimited quantitative easing, leading to a more than 15% increase in gold prices for the year [6][10] - In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve pushed gold prices close to previous highs, with central bank gold purchases reaching 1,136 tons, the highest in 55 years [7] - Looking ahead to 2024, ongoing geopolitical tensions and a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive global central bank gold purchases to 247 tons per month, with gold prices projected to rise nearly 30% [11] Group 3 - Key factors influencing gold prices include monetary policy and interest rate environments, where rate hikes suppress gold prices while rate cuts tend to boost them [14] - Geopolitical events such as Brexit and the Russia-Ukraine conflict trigger safe-haven buying, leading to short-term price increases [16] - Central bank gold purchases have been on the rise, with a 63% year-on-year increase in 2024, providing long-term support for gold prices [17]

当前黄金趋势的分析可以从以下几个关键因素展开： 结论：当前黄金处于结构性牛市，短期波动不改长期上行趋势，建议逢低配置对冲宏观不确定性。 短期：地缘冲突与降息预期主导，金价或维持高位震荡，波动性加剧。 中期：若美联储明确转向降息，叠加央行购金及滞胀风险，黄金有望挑战新高。 风险提示：经济软着陆削弱降息预期、美元反弹、地缘局势缓和或引发技术性回调。 1. 宏观经济环境与货币政策 美联储政策预期：市场普遍预期美联储加息周期接近尾声，2024年可能开启降息。近期美国通胀（CPI）数据回落， 但核心通胀仍具粘性，导致降息时点存在不确定性。若降息预期升温，实际利率下降将利好黄金。 美元走势：美元指数（DXY）近期承压，因美联储偏鸽预期及非美经济体（如欧元区）经济韧性。美元走弱通常支 撑以美元计价的黄金。 2. 地缘政治风险 俄乌冲突与中东局势：持续的地缘紧张（如红海航运危机、伊朗核问题）推高避险需求。黄金作为传统避险资产，在 不确定性加剧时吸引资金流入。 3. 实际利率与通胀 美债收益率：10年期美债收益率若因降息预期下行，持有黄金的机会成本降低。当前实际利率（名义利率减通胀预 期）若维持低位或下降，将增强黄金吸引力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a significant decline, leading to a drop in domestic gold jewelry prices, which has sparked consumer interest and increased foot traffic in jewelry stores despite the price drop [1][3][4]. Price Movement - On April 4, the spot gold price fell by 2.47% to $3037.31 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 2.1% to $3056.1 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices saw a two-day decline, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Puhuang reporting decreases of 32 yuan and 30 yuan per gram, respectively [1][2]. Consumer Behavior - Despite the drop in gold prices, there has been a surge in consumer demand, with long queues observed at various jewelry stores in cities like Wuhan and Shenzhen [3][4]. - Stores have implemented purchase limits to prevent bulk buying by resellers, indicating strong consumer interest in gold jewelry [3]. Market Dynamics - Investors are selling off gold to cover losses in other asset classes, contributing to the recent price decline [7]. - The gold market has seen a year-to-date increase of approximately 15%, driven by central bank purchases and strong investment demand, despite recent price pressures [6][7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the factors driving gold's previous price increases, such as central bank buying and ETF inflows, may continue to support gold prices in the future [8].