Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant selling pressure, with spot gold prices dropping below the critical psychological level of $3300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3390 due to a rebound in the US dollar index and easing international trade tensions [2] - Despite a slight recovery to around $3308 driven by bargain buying, market attention remains focused on international trade dynamics, US fiscal policy outlook, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - Short-term gold price movements are influenced by the US dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, with the $3300 level being crucial for market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The gold price faced downward pressure as it tested trendline resistance multiple times without breaking, leading to a decline and breaking the support level at $3320 [4] - On the daily chart, gold prices are consolidating at high levels around $3350, with MACD indicators showing bearish pressure, and the Bollinger Band's middle line support at $3287 is critical [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a shift from a five-wave to a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective phase, with key resistance at $3320 and potential further declines towards the $3270-$3250 range [5]

本周市场将受到多重因素的影响，尤其是美联储的会议纪要和通胀报告将成为关键的关注点。周初，市场将由特朗普最新关税威胁以及欧洲央行行长拉加德 的讲话引导，而接下来的数据发布将进一步影响市场情绪和投资决策。本文将详细分析本周的重要经济数据和事件，帮助投资者把握市场脉动。 欧美时段首先关注德国5月季调后失业率，4月份经季节调整的失业率连续第二个月保持在6.3%不变，符合预期但当局指出，春季劳工市场复苏似乎相对较 弱，所以需要更多的数据来确认信号，看就业市场依然被经济前景信心弱化所拖累。晚间关注美国5月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数，预计维持负值。原油市场 关注第39届欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国部长级会议举行，上周有报道称其讨论7月增产的选项，在当前经济前景不明朗的情况下，增产会再次施压油价。 周一：央行动态引导市场 美国和英国因假期休市，但市场情绪将主要受到特朗普再次发出关税威胁的影响，留意避险情绪预计集中。美国总统特朗普上周五威胁要再次升级贸易战， 建议从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%的关税，并警告苹果，他可能会对美国消费者购买的所有iPhone征收25%的关税。看晚间欧央行行长拉加德讲话关注是 否就特朗普最新关税警告做出回应 ...

n1 经济事件 · 08:00:00 · 02:40:00 · 09:20:00 · 02:00:00 · 04:00:00 美联储主席鲍威 FOMC永久票 美联储公布5月 2027年FOMC票 今日有3570亿元 尔在普林斯顿大 委、纽约联储主 货币政策会议纪 7天期逆回购到 委、旧金山联储 学毕业典礼发表 席威廉姆斯参加 主席戴利参加奥 期。 品。 毕业致辞。 日本央行金融研 · 09:20:00 克兰扶轮社与经 · 10:00:00 国务院政策例行 ·09:20:00 究所会议的小组 今日有1545亿元 济相关的炉边谈 7天期逆回购到 吹风会:深化国 今日有1350亿元 讨论。 话。 7天期逆回购到 家级经济技术开 · 09:20:00 期。 · 08:25:00 发区改革创新有 今日有1570亿元 2026年FOMC票 期。 · 20:30:00 2027年FOMC票 ·2025-05-26 关举措。 7天期逆回购到 委、达拉斯联储 美股休市一日。 · 16:00:00 期。 委、里奇蒙联储 主席洛根为一场 2026年FOMC票 · 16:00:00 主席巴尔金参加 活动致开幕词, 委、明尼阿波利 2 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 20 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区间【2320，2400】操 ...

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2025年05月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡调整 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：内外库存下降，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：关注矿端影响 | 6 | | 锌：上方承压 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 12 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 20 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The marginal weakening of April economic data shows resilience, and there is no significant risk of a decline in the short - term fundamentals. Policies may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further intensification is low. The focus of market gaming should be on the capital market. Although the supply pressure of government bonds has eased marginally this week, there is tax - payment pressure, which may still restrict the rebound of the bond market. Attention should be paid to the LPR quotation tomorrow [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The April economic activity data released in the morning was weaker than expected, boosting the bond market sentiment, and treasury bond futures closed higher across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined comprehensively. The decline of medium - and long - term bonds was about 2bp. By 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.6610%, down 1.8bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank made a net injection in the open market, and the capital market tightened marginally. There were 430 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 920 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank capital interest rates fluctuated. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 9.4bp to 1.54%, the 7 - day interest rate fell 3.6bp to around 1.60%, and the medium - and long - term funds increased slightly. The 1 - year large - state - owned bank certificate of deposit interest rate rose 3 - 4bp to around 1.7% compared with last weekend [10]. 2. Industry News - **Domestic Economic Data**: China's industrial added value above designated size in April increased by 6.1% year - on - year; from January to April, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 147024 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%; in April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year; from January to April, real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [12]. - **Housing Price Data**: In April, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in each tier were flat or slightly down month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow [13]. - **International News**: The UK is expected to reach the most significant reset agreement with the EU since Brexit; the US Treasury Secretary warned that some US trading partners may face a significant increase in tariff rates [13]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures contracts on May 19, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information on the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the interest rate of inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average curves of Shibor3M interest - rate swaps and FR007 interest - rate swaps [34]

商 品 研 究 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 贵金属基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、特朗普分别与俄乌元首通话，普京称愿与乌方共同起草和平备忘录；泽连斯基称愿与俄签署和平 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 5 月 20 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 754.14 | 0.58% | 758.02 | 0.97% | | | 黄金T+D | 754.09 | 0.95% | 753.05 | 0.34% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3220.90 | 0.56% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：最近的经济数据非常好。 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 关税降级带动出口跳升、生产回暖 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 18 日│中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 5月12日中美发布联声明，将4月2日以来双方加征的125%关税降至34%， 并对其中 24%的关税暂停 90 天实施，仅加征 10%的关税。上周港口高频 指标显示出口活跃度较快回升，到港船舶数量同比由前一周的-11%回正至 1%，或显示抢出口和产能出海的需求有望继续支撑中国出口。出口需求亦 带动工业生产同比回暖，基建活动走强，但地产及建筑活动放缓。 高频经济活动跟踪 港口高频数据显示上周出口活跃度低位跳升，集装箱美线运价上涨，工业 生产及基建活动同比亦有回暖，地产成交同比增速回落。出行及消费方面， 上周 18 城地铁客运量同比上升 0.9%，乘用车零售同比回升 37.3%；工业 生产方面，焦化/高炉开工率同比回升 2.3/2.6 个百分点，水泥企业开工率同 比回升 6.2 个百分点；建筑钢材成交量同比仍在-21.1%的偏弱区间。出口方 面，HDET 高频指标显示 5 月 1-17 日出口或较 4 月回落，但上周降幅有所 改善。地产方面，44 城新房成交面积同比从前一周的 14.4%回落至 ...