n1 经济事件 · 08:00:00 · 02:40:00 · 09:20:00 · 02:00:00 · 04:00:00 美联储主席鲍威 FOMC永久票 美联储公布5月 2027年FOMC票 今日有3570亿元 尔在普林斯顿大 委、纽约联储主 货币政策会议纪 7天期逆回购到 委、旧金山联储 学毕业典礼发表 席威廉姆斯参加 主席戴利参加奥 期。 品。 毕业致辞。 日本央行金融研 · 09:20:00 克兰扶轮社与经 · 10:00:00 国务院政策例行 ·09:20:00 究所会议的小组 今日有1545亿元 济相关的炉边谈 7天期逆回购到 吹风会:深化国 今日有1350亿元 讨论。 话。 7天期逆回购到 家级经济技术开 · 09:20:00 期。 · 08:25:00 发区改革创新有 今日有1570亿元 2026年FOMC票 期。 · 20:30:00 2027年FOMC票 ·2025-05-26 关举措。 7天期逆回购到 委、达拉斯联储 美股休市一日。 · 16:00:00 期。 委、里奇蒙联储 主席洛根为一场 2026年FOMC票 · 16:00:00 主席巴尔金参加 活动致开幕词, 委、明尼阿波利 2 ...

二、地缘政治风险缓和 中美贸易谈判进展 中美经贸会谈达成多项共识，部分关税暂停或降低，市场对贸易摩擦的担忧减弱，避险需求退潮。 俄乌冲突降温 黄金价格近期持续下跌的原因是多方面因素共同作用的结果，主要可归纳为以下几点： 一、美元走强与美联储政策 美元指数回升 黄金以美元计价，美元升值会直接压低黄金价格。近期美联储维持高利率的预期增强，市场认为降息可能推迟， 美元指数反弹至高位，导致黄金吸引力下降。 加息预期升温 美国4月CPI数据若超预期，可能促使美联储进一步加息，增加持有黄金的机会成本（黄金不产生利息）。这种政 策预期促使资金从黄金转向美元资产。 俄乌停火谈判的预期及中东局势缓和，进一步削弱了黄金作为避险资产的需求。 三、市场情绪与技术面因素 技术性抛售 金价跌破关键支撑位（如3300美元/盎司），触发程序化交易抛售，形成"越跌越卖"的恶性循环。 多头获利了结 此前黄金连续上涨积累了大量获利盘，投资者选择高位套现锁定利润，导致短期抛压加剧。 四、宏观经济数据影响 美国经济数据向好 非农就业数据超预期、制造业PMI回升等指标缓解了市场对经济衰退的担忧，风险资产（如股票）吸引力上升， 资金撤离黄金市场。 实际利 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 对于 4 月以来的经济情况，重点总结两方面的内容。 1 、经济的不变之处来自政策的"补"与出口的"抢" ，包括 4 个方面。投资端 1-4 月设备购置对全部投资增 长的贡献率为 64.5% ；消费端 4 月份家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类、通讯器材类、建 筑及装潢材料类商品零售额对社零的贡献率为 27.4% ；生产端 4 月装备制造业对全部规模以上工业生产增 长的贡献率达 55.9% 。贸易端 4 月贸易顺差增速为 33.6% ，略低于 1 季度，但依然处于偏高水平。 1 季 度，贸易顺差对 GDP 的贡献率为 39.5% 。 2 、经济的变化之处来自地产与制造业 。 对于地产，自去年 9 月政治局会议以来，最强的五个城市（ 70 大中城市内，以二手住宅价格上涨月数和幅度为标准）二手住宅量价动能有所趋缓。对于制造业，其内部 物价压力较大的原材料业（本轮 PPI 自 2022 年 5 月以来，原材料加工业下跌幅度较大），其投资增速快 速放缓， 1-4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals will gradually face pressure, and the fundamental situation is favorable for the bond market. It is advisable to maintain the strategy of buying on dips. In the medium to long term, the probability of making profits by going long on long - term bonds is high, but the potential return is relatively limited. Therefore, the strategy of buying on dips is more cost - effective [3][35] - The economic data in Q2 may decline moderately, and the pressure on economic decline will become more apparent in Q3. It is expected that China will introduce incremental policies to address this situation at that time [2][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Increase in Internal and External Pressures, Most Economic Data Falling Short of Expectations - **Q1 Economic Data Strength Logic**: The strong performance of Q1 economic data was mainly due to two reasons: the beginning of the year is the peak demand season for sectors such as real estate, and policy efforts further stimulated market demand; enterprises had a strong motivation to rush exports, and the export industry chain showed resilience. However, both logics had issues of poor sustainability [1][9][10] - **April Economic Data Weakening**: In April, most economic data weakened compared to the previous period. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in April was 6.5%, with an expected value of 6.1% and a previous value of 7.7%; the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in April was 5.1%, with an expected value of 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4%, with an expected value of 4.2% and a previous value of 4.2%. After the data was released, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose [9] - **Future Economic Trend**: The economic data in Q2 may decline moderately, and the pressure on economic decline will become more obvious starting from mid - year. Fiscal policy is the key to hedging against the weakening external demand. It is expected that China will introduce incremental policies in Q3, and policies will become the focus of market speculation at that time [2][11] 2. Production End: Both Industrial and Service Production Show Weakening Resilience - **Industrial Production**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.5%, with an expected value of 6.1% and a previous value of 7.7%. The growth rate of industrial production is weakening. The decline in the growth rate of export delivery value and the weakening of terminal demand such as external demand have dragged down production performance. Policy support has prevented a significant decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value. Looking forward, the weakening of external demand will have a more obvious impact on industries with high export dependence, but policies such as "two new" will support the production end, and the decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is expected to be limited [12][13] - **Service Production**: In April, the service production growth rate was 6.0%, with a previous value of 6.3%. Weak service consumption and unstable economic recovery expectations have negatively affected service production. In the future, the production growth rate is expected to decline slightly. Although terminal demand is weak, policies to boost service consumption are expected to prevent a significant decline in the service production growth rate [13] 3. Demand End: Both Manufacturing and Infrastructure Growth Rates Decline Slightly, and Real Estate Data Deteriorates Marginally Again - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to April, the cumulative manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.8%, with a previous value of 9.1%; in April, the monthly manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.2%, with a previous value of 9.2%. The decline in manufacturing investment growth rate is due to weak terminal demand and low corporate investment and financing willingness. However, policies such as equipment renewal have limited the decline. In the future, manufacturing will continue to grow at a high speed, but there will be obvious structural differentiation [18][19] - **Infrastructure Investment**: From January to April, the cumulative growth rate of broad - based infrastructure was 10.85%, with a previous value of 11.5%; the narrow - based infrastructure growth rate was 5.8%, with a previous value of 5.8%. In April, the monthly broad - based infrastructure growth rate was 9.57%, with a previous value of 12.58%. Infrastructure growth is gradually declining from a high level. The slow issuance of new special bonds and the decline in investment growth rates of some central - led infrastructure industries have led to the weakening of infrastructure growth in April. In the short term, infrastructure growth may face a slight downward pressure, but it is expected to rise again with subsequent policy support [22][23] - **Real Estate Market**: Most real estate indicators showed a decline again. Weak consumer willingness to buy houses and tight corporate funding sources have led to a decline in real estate investment. In the short term, the probability of directly introducing strong policies to stimulate real estate demand is low. The core idea of stabilizing the real estate market is to increase effective supply to stimulate effective demand. In the short term, real estate data may continue to weaken, and the impact of incremental fiscal policies on the real estate market in Q3 can be observed [26][27] - **Social Retail Sales**: In April, the social retail sales growth rate was 5.1%, with an expected value of 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%. The decline in automobile and other large - scale consumer goods sales has dragged down the social retail sales growth rate. Different types of consumer goods show differentiated performance. In the future, social retail sales still face pressure due to high macro - environmental uncertainty and low probability of direct policies to improve residents' cash flow statements [30][31] 4. Fundamental Factors Favor the Bond Market, Maintain the Strategy of Buying on Dips - **Bond Market Outlook**: Due to the poor sustainability of the previous logics driving economic data improvement, future economic fundamental pressure will gradually emerge, which is favorable for the bond market. In the medium to long term, the probability of making profits by going long on long - term bonds is high, but the potential return is relatively limited. Therefore, the strategy of buying on dips is more cost - effective [3][35] - **Monetary Policy and Yield Curve**: The future fundamental pressure will gradually emerge, and the pressure of exchange - rate depreciation is relatively controllable. The probability of overall loose monetary policy is high. It is expected that the central level of capital interest rates will decline slightly, and the capital market will be in a state of balanced and slightly loose. The current yield curve is relatively flat and is expected to gradually steepen in the future [35][36] - **Investment Strategies**: In the medium term, there is still a bullish outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of deploying medium - term long positions on dips. The opportunities for futures positive arbitrage have significantly decreased, and only some contracts still have slight positive arbitrage opportunities. Opportunities to steepen the curve have initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates need to be closely monitored [38]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 20 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区间【2320，2400】操 ...

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2025年05月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡调整 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：内外库存下降，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：关注矿端影响 | 6 | | 锌：上方承压 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 12 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 20 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货5月19日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2506 | 118.880 | 118.980 | 119.320 | 119.290 | 0.440 | 0.37 | ...

商 品 研 究 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 贵金属基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、特朗普分别与俄乌元首通话，普京称愿与乌方共同起草和平备忘录；泽连斯基称愿与俄签署和平 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 5 月 20 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 754.14 | 0.58% | 758.02 | 0.97% | | | 黄金T+D | 754.09 | 0.95% | 753.05 | 0.34% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3220.90 | 0.56% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3 ...

每经编辑｜叶峰 4、新时代军工产业应响应国家需求、顺应时代要求，在囊括传统军工业务以外，应拓展行业范畴，涵 盖新域、新质、新兴非传统军工领域，形成新时代的行业体系。随着建军百年目标临近，且在全年要求 完成"十四五"规划的任务下，板块订单和业绩或将会持续兑现。可以关注军工ETF（512660）。 摘要： 阅读原文 1、整体看，4月经济数据呈现工业增速超预期、消费温和回暖、投资结构分化的特点；1-4月经济数据 在外部冲击下继续呈现较强韧性，新兴产业领域产业扩张较快。短期市场可能维持震荡格局，但A股市 场长期向好趋势不变，当前阶段可以考虑逢低布局，关注中证A500ETF（159338）等宽基标的，震荡市 中也可以考虑现金流ETF（159399）等防御类标的。 2、关税冲突缓和后，国内在"更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"配合下，经济数据有望进一 步改善，若有超预期经济政策出台，顺周期的钢铁板块可能有一定弹性。钢铁板块估值较低，中证钢铁 指数的PB值为0.94，部分长期破净公司有望受政策利好。感兴趣的小伙伴也可适当关注钢铁ETF （515210）。 3、近期金价高位回调的主要原因可能是避险情绪的回落。货币超发及 ...