【导读】本周美股三大股指累跌，走出4月以来最糟糕一周；科技股拖累纳指走低，微软8连跌；美政府停摆影响进一步扩大，在大量官方数据真空下，美 联储12月降息争论愈发激烈 美东时间11月7日周五，美国三大股指低开后延续跌势，尾盘拉升，科技股拖累纳指走低，微软录得8连跌。本周，三大指数均累跌，走出4月初贸易政策 冲击以来最糟糕的一周。 黄金市场本周延续剧烈震荡，在美国政府长期停摆和规避美股风险等背景下，11月7日金价有所反弹，现报4000美元/盎司，本周累计微跌0.06%。 美政府"停摆"进入第39天。大量官方数据无法按计划公布，民主党和共和党双方分歧导致谈判陷入困境。当日，民主党提出结束美国政府停摆新方案，但 遭共和党人拒绝，政府停摆影响进一步扩大。 在数据真空的背景下，美联储内部关于12月是否降息的争论愈发激烈。分析师预测降息概率出现分歧，最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为 66.5%，维持利率不变的概率为33.5%。 本周美国三大股指累跌 板块方面，科技股回调拖累纳指，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.56%，特斯拉跌3.71%，英伟达尾盘转涨，此前一度跌近5%。本周，万得美国科技七巨头 指数已累跌3. ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices experienced significant declines this week, marking the worst week since early April, with the Nasdaq down 3.04%, the Dow Jones down 1.21%, and the S&P 500 down 1.63% [4] - The technology sector's pullback heavily impacted the Nasdaq, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index falling 0.56% and Tesla dropping 3.71% [5][6] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 39th day, causing a vacuum of official data releases and escalating tensions between Democrats and Republicans, which has further impacted market sentiment [15][19] - The ongoing shutdown is projected to result in significant economic losses, with estimates suggesting a loss of $11 billion after six weeks and $14 billion after eight weeks [18] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Debate - Internal debates within the Federal Reserve regarding a potential interest rate cut in December have intensified, with a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 33.5% chance of maintaining current rates [22] - Fed officials express differing views on the necessity of a rate cut, with some advocating for a more aggressive approach to address economic pressures [21][22] Gold and Commodity Markets - Gold prices have shown volatility, currently trading around $4000 per ounce, with a slight weekly decline of 0.06% [11] - The oil market has also experienced fluctuations, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil closing at $59.84 per barrel, down 1.87% for the week, despite OPEC+ efforts to curb production [13]

Group 1 - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett expressed disappointment regarding the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, while Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the Fed has sufficient data to formulate policies [1][2] - On November 7, U.S. stock markets experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.16%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq declining by 0.21%. Notably, the Nasdaq index had dropped over 2% during the day before closing down 0.21% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw a pullback, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 0.96%. Individual stocks such as XPeng Motors, Zai Lab, Pony.ai, and Tencent Music experienced declines of over 6%, 5%, 5%, and 4% respectively [1] Group 2 - In the gold market, London gold prices rose, closing above $4000. The U.S. government shutdown, which has lasted for 37 days, has created significant economic concerns, with Hassett indicating that the GDP growth rate for Q4 will be negatively impacted [2] - The Senate Majority Leader John Thune mentioned that negotiations with Democrats to restart the government have stalled, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer proposed a new compromise to restart government operations and extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act by one year [2] - According to the New York Fed's consumer expectations survey, the inflation expectation for the next year decreased from 3.38% to 3.24%, marking the first decline since June [3]

Group 1 - The Canadian labor market showed strong performance in October, with a net addition of 66,000 jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.1% to 6.9%, marking the second consecutive month of improvement [1][2] - The job growth significantly exceeded market expectations, which anticipated a loss of 20,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2% [1] - The increase in employment was primarily driven by part-time positions, while full-time jobs remained relatively unchanged. The private sector added 73,000 jobs, indicating a recovery in hiring intentions among businesses [1] Group 2 - Job growth was predominantly concentrated in Ontario, which accounted for 55,000 of the new positions, representing over 80% of the national job increase [2] - Average hourly wages rose by 3.5% year-on-year to CAD 37.06, although the growth rate is still below the peak wage increases seen during inflationary periods [2] - The Canadian job market has experienced significant volatility this year, with a total of 127,000 jobs added in September and October, offsetting a loss of 106,000 jobs in July and August [2]

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations this week, initially rising above the 100 mark to reach a three-month high before falling back below 100 on Thursday, currently reported at 99.55 [1] - The precious metals market saw significant volatility, with gold prices dropping to a near one-month low of $3930 per ounce before rebounding, while silver fluctuated between $47 and $49 per ounce [1] - The oil market continued its downward trend, with both crude oil benchmarks declining for four consecutive trading days due to weak factory activity in Asia and rising global inventories [1] Employment and Economic Indicators - The US job market showed mixed signals, with ADP reporting an addition of 42,000 jobs in October, ending a two-month decline, while Challenger reported a record 153,000 layoffs, a 175% year-over-year increase [6] - The Federal Reserve is engaged in heated discussions regarding potential interest rate cuts, with differing opinions on the current economic conditions and inflation risks [7] Political Developments - The US government shutdown continues to impact the economy, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating losses of $11 billion after six weeks and $14 billion after eight weeks, affecting air travel and food assistance programs [8][9] - The Supreme Court is debating the legality of Trump's tariffs, with skepticism from both liberal and conservative justices, potentially impacting future trade policies [10] Corporate Developments - Goldman Sachs predicts limited impact on trade dynamics even if the Supreme Court rules against Trump's tariffs, while also noting potential 30% returns for Chinese stocks by the end of next year [5] - Tesla's shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation plan for Elon Musk, aiming for a market cap increase from $2 trillion to $8.5 trillion, with ambitious targets set for vehicle deliveries and autonomous driving capabilities [15][16] Industry Insights - The US government updated its critical minerals list, adding ten new minerals including copper and silver, to reduce reliance on foreign sources and promote domestic mining [14] - OpenAI and Amazon Web Services entered a $38 billion computing power agreement, marking a significant collaboration in the AI and cloud computing sectors [18] - Nvidia's CEO expressed confidence in China's potential to win the AI race, criticizing Western regulatory approaches [17]

Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Index indicates that liquidity pressure in November is expected to increase compared to October, with a liquidity gap around 2 trillion yuan, as many market institutions anticipate seasonal pressures due to the maturity of financial instruments [1][2][3]. Liquidity Conditions - In October, the central bank maintained a relatively proactive liquidity injection strategy, with a net injection of 4,000 billion yuan, the largest monthly value since March 2025 [2]. - The central bank's operations included a 1.1 trillion yuan front-loaded reverse repo to ease the liquidity pressure at the beginning of the month [2]. - The liquidity gap for November is projected to be around 2 trillion yuan, with some institutions suggesting it could exceed 3 trillion yuan [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank has restarted open market operations for government bonds, which many institutions believe could replace the need for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [1][7]. - The necessity for an RRR cut in the fourth quarter is perceived to be lower, with 17 out of 20 institutions indicating a reduced likelihood of such a move [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the resumption of government bond trading may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, allowing for continued liquidity support without aggressive monetary easing [8][9]. Market Reactions - The bond market is expected to experience renewed downward trends, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially approaching the low of 1.7% seen in August [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market indicates that while the central bank's easing measures may be less aggressive, the need for monetary policy support remains due to ongoing economic challenges [9].

亚洲股市周五以下跌作收，如果今晚美股不能止跌，那么亚洲市场下周一的跌势将比今日更甚。 昨晚美国公布的"民间版非农"令人大跌眼镜，但更令人诧异的是美联储随后的讲话——非但不制止恐 慌，反而又给下跌添了一把火。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，通胀比就业疲软的风险更大。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，由于政府停摆期间缺乏通胀数据，他对降息感到不安。 来源：华尔街情报圈 在就业市场恶化，在市场大跌的情况下，美联储反而更关心通胀——叙事开始"句句不离通胀"。 这说明两点： · 第一，美联储正在与市场"脱钩"——它更关心的是信誉。 · 第二，政策沟通的重心正在转向"压预期"。"通胀优先"的叙事，是对市场的一种再教育。市场太早庆 祝胜利、太早price in降息，美联储就必须"重新定锚预期"。哈马克、古尔斯比的讲话其实在传递同一个 信号——别误会，我们还没到降息周期。 过去半年，市场提前押注降息，美债收益率大幅下行、股市猛涨，美联储显然认为这已经"过火"——现 在"修正市场的贪婪"，哪怕代价是让市场自己摔一跤。 今晚仍将有联储官员讲话，如果他们保持昨天的口吻，那么可以确定一点——美联储不是来救市的，它 是来让市场"认清现实"的 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall shock - upward pattern of the non - ferrous sector remains unchanged. After key events, the macro focus has shifted from macro narratives to real - world demand, causing an adjustment. With the dollar index stabilizing after a rebound, non - ferrous metals have shown a warming trend again. [11] - In the short term, factors such as the strong dollar, high copper prices, and weak manufacturing data are negative for copper prices. In the long run, the supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic copper demand will enter a seasonal peak season, so the copper price center is expected to move up. [3][13] - Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound trend. The supply growth of zinc ingots is gradually realized, and the demand in the peak season is still relatively weak. [14] - The aluminum industry chain presents a complex situation. Aluminum shows a shock - strengthening trend, while alumina is weak, and the peak - season driving force of related sub - sectors is gradually weakening. [14] - Tin is in a state of range - bound shock. The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields remains weak. [15] - Lead is in a state of shock - consolidation. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has declined. [15] - Nickel and stainless steel are in a state of range - bound adjustment. The supply of nickel is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock situation. [15][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: After key events, the macro focus has shifted to real - world demand, causing an adjustment in non - ferrous metals. With the dollar index stabilizing after a rebound, non - ferrous metals have shown a warming trend. There are different economic trends in the US, China, and the Eurozone. [11] - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: In the short term, factors such as the strong dollar, high copper prices, and weak manufacturing data are negative for copper prices. In the long run, due to supply constraints and seasonal demand peaks, copper prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with a support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton. [3][13] - **Zinc**: Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound. The supply growth of zinc ingots is gradually realized, and the demand in the peak season is still relatively weak. The recommended strategy is to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [14] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum shows a shock - strengthening trend, alumina is weak, and the peak - season driving force of related sub - sectors is gradually weakening. The recommended strategy is to be bullish on aluminum, short alumina on highs, and be bullish on the aluminum industry chain. [14] - **Tin**: Tin is in a state of range - bound shock. The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields remains weak. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or be slightly bullish, with a support range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. [15] - **Lead**: Lead is in a state of shock - consolidation. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has declined. The recommended strategy is to sell both call and put options, with a support range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton. [15] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are in a state of range - bound adjustment. The supply of nickel is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock situation. The recommended strategy is to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton for nickel and 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton for stainless steel, and a pressure range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for nickel and 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton for stainless steel. [15][16] Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Situation**: The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented, such as copper at 86,320 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, and aluminum at 21,630 yuan/ton with a 1.10% increase. [16] Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - **Position Analysis**: The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and short positions of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, along with the influencing factors. [19] Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price at 85,990 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 22,510 yuan/ton with no change. [20] Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant charts are provided to show the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel in the industry chain. [22][24][27] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Relevant charts are provided to show the arbitrage - related data such as the ratio of domestic to foreign prices, basis, and price differences of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel. [46][48][51] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Relevant charts are provided to show the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of options for copper, zinc, and aluminum. [64][66][68]

美国芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比11月6日表示，由于联邦政府"停摆"导致新的联邦经济数据发布 继续推迟，其中就包括通胀数据的统计。他表示，"如果这方面出现问题，可能需要相当一段时间才能 察觉"，这让他对进一步降息更加持谨慎态度。 ...

11月7日资讯分享 周四，现货黄金坐上"过山车"，其在欧盘时段一度重回4010美元上方，但至美盘前，金价大幅跳水，随 后抹去日内全部涨幅并转跌，最终收跌0.05%，收报3977.17美元/盎司； 因市场仍在担忧供应过剩，原油连续第四天下跌，WTI原油在欧盘时段一度重回60美元关口上方，但随 后迅速回落，并在美盘时段前加速下跌，抹去日内全部涨幅，最终收跌0.13%，报59.40美元/桶；布伦 特原油最终收跌0.18%，报63.21美元/桶。 美国私人数据提供商：美国10月份非农就业岗位减少了9100个；美国10月挑战者企业裁员人数同比大增 175%，年内裁员人数同比增长65%；芝加哥联储数据显示10月失业率约为4.36%，创四年新高。 美联储官员继续保持谨慎，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比认为缺乏可靠的通胀数据，对降息保持谨慎；克利 夫兰联储主席哈玛克强调通胀风险，反对进一步降息；不过理事米兰继续预期美联储将在12月降息；纽 约联储主席威廉姆斯认为，基于模型的美国中性利率估计在1%左右。理事巴尔指出人工智能的影响可 能正在打击某些行业的招聘。 英国央行维持利率不变，9名票委中4人支持降息，声明指引删除"谨慎"一词或为1 ...