7月美国CPI同比上涨2.7%，大体符合预期，缓解了关税上调背景下通胀失控的担忧。然而，核心CPI同 比增速已达到3.1%，且剔除住房、能源和食品的"超级核心CPI"环比上涨0.5%，创近18个月来次高水 平。Inflation Insights创始人Omair Sharif指出，核心商品价格涨幅比6月更广泛，近期关税的传导效应已 在多数品类中显现。 根据美联储6月发布的经济预测摘要，核心PCE通胀预计今年末将为3.1%。目前核心CPI已触及该水平， 而关税影响仍在持续渗透。这可能令官员在就业放缓的同时，对更大幅度降息保持谨慎。7月美国新增 非农就业仅7.3万，且5月和6月的就业增幅被大幅下修至1.9万和1.4万，但失业率仍维持在4.2%。 美联储官员近期表态显示，虽然理事鲍曼和沃勒倾向于降息25个基点，委员会大多数成员在通胀连续53 个月高于2%目标的背景下仍偏向鹰派。里士满联储主席巴尔金本周表示，将根据经济形势的进一步明 朗来调整政策立场，但未释放转向鸽派的明确信号。 StoneX高级顾问Jon Hilsenrath指出，即便7月通胀数据给予美联储一定降息空间，也不意味着10月会再 次降息。目前期货市场赋 ...

Market Performance - US stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs during the session [1] - As of the report, the Dow Jones increased by 0.59%, S&P 500 by 0.15%, and Nasdaq by 0.13% [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks surged, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising over 2% [3] Individual Stock Movements - Bilibili's stock rose over 6%, while NetEase, Alibaba, and Li Auto each increased by over 3% [5] - Tencent Holdings' ADR saw a nearly 7% increase, reaching a market capitalization exceeding $700 billion [5] Tencent's Financial Performance - Tencent reported total revenue of 364.53 billion RMB for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with an operating profit of 117.67 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103.45 billion RMB [7] - For Q2 2025, Tencent's total revenue was 184.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth, with operating profit increasing by 18% to 69.2 billion RMB [7] - Gross margin reached 57%, up by 4 percentage points year-on-year [7] Tencent's Business Segments - All three main business segments of Tencent reported revenue growth: - Value-added services revenue was 91.4 billion RMB, up 16% year-on-year - Marketing services revenue was 35.8 billion RMB, up 20% year-on-year - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 55.5 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year [8] - Tencent emphasized the deep integration of AI into its gaming, advertising, and social ecosystems, with ongoing investments in AI yielding benefits [8]

Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. is currently experiencing "quasi-stagflation," characterized by economic weakness and commodity inflation coexisting[1] - Manufacturing and real estate sectors have shown varying degrees of weakness, with the July ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48%, the lowest this year[6] - The primary drivers of U.S. economic growth are showing marginal weakness, with Q2 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 3.0%, largely due to a contraction in imports[6] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Current inflation may not be sufficient to prevent the restart of interest rate cuts, as resilient core service inflation has not increased significantly[10] - The July CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, indicating that overall inflation is not as strong as anticipated[11] - Market expectations currently include three rate cuts, but this may be adjusted based on the pace of unemployment rate increases[22] Group 3: Unemployment Trends - The speed of the increase in the unemployment rate may be a key factor in determining the extent of interest rate cuts, with projections suggesting it may rise to 4.4%-4.5% by year-end[17] - The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 4.0%-4.2% this year, indicating a relatively stable labor market[21] Group 4: Risks and Market Outlook - Potential risk factors include geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a more significant-than-expected weakening of the U.S. labor market[26] - The dollar index may have further downside potential, and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to perform better than long-term bonds[23]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. inflation data met expectations, enhancing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for September, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, while global stock markets rose [1][2]. Market Performance - The MSCI Global Index rose by 0.2%, reaching a historical high, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index increased by over 1%. The Nikkei 225 Index hit a new high, and European stocks opened higher, with U.S. indices also showing collective gains [1]. - The Dow Jones increased by 0.38%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.33%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.39% [1]. - European stocks saw significant gains, with the German DAX up over 0.7%, the UK FTSE 100 up 0.2%, and the French CAC 40 up over 0.5% [1][2]. Commodity and Cryptocurrency Movements - Spot gold rose by over 0.3%, while crude oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil dropping over 0.5% to around $63 and Brent oil down over 0.1% to near $66 [2]. - Ethereum experienced a significant increase, rising over 9% within 24 hours, surpassing $4,700, marking its highest level since December 2021 [2][3]. Interest Rate Expectations - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declining by over 3 basis points [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September rose to approximately 95%, up from 80% prior to the inflation data release [1][2]. Individual Stock Movements - AMD shares rose by 3.5%, while Coreweave's stock fell by over 10% despite a doubling of Q2 revenue and an upward revision of annual guidance [2]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by over 2%, with notable gains from companies such as Bilibili (up over 6%), NetEase (up over 6%), Alibaba (up over 3%), and Li Auto (up over 3%) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a volatile performance. The US announced that the annual CPI rate in July remained flat at 2.7%, lower than expected, but the annual core CPI rate reached 3.1%, a five - month high and higher than expected. After the data release, the market maintained bets on the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Trump urged rate cuts again. Focusing on the upcoming US - Russia leadership talks, market sentiment is facing fluctuations. In the volatile trend of precious metals, patiently wait for callback opportunities to lay out [1]. Other Summaries Statements from Different Figures on Interest Rate Cuts - Trump: Urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates immediately and considered filing a major lawsuit against Powell. Stated that tariffs did not cause inflation or other problems for the country, and consumers did not even pay these tariffs [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Suggested that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September [2]. - Fed nominee Milan: Pleased with the good inflation performance. Whether the nomination can be approved before the September meeting depends on the Senate [2]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin: There may be pressures on inflation and unemployment, and the balance between the two is unclear [2]. - Kansas Fed President Schmid: Tariffs have limited impact on inflation, which is a reason to keep policy unchanged rather than an opportunity to cut interest rates [2]. Expectations for the US - Russia Summit - The White House has downplayed expectations of a peace agreement being reached at the US - Russia presidential summit on Friday and stated that any agreement must involve Ukraine. White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin will be a "listening tour", and Washington cannot predict any specific results. The goal of the meeting is to better understand how to end the conflict after the meeting [2].

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rose slightly in July to 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from June, while the overall CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Month-on-month, the core CPI increased from 0.23% in June to 0.32% in July, aligning with market expectations[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rate decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.20% in July[1] Labor Market Insights - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 104,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July[1] - Average hourly wage growth showed an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, despite the overall labor market data weakening[1] Price Trends - Core goods prices saw a slight month-on-month increase to 0.21% in July, with notable declines in clothing and furniture prices[2] - Transportation goods inflation turned positive in July at 0.22%, reversing a decline of -0.38% in June[2] - Super core service prices rose by 0.19 percentage points to 0.55%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel[2] Tariff Impact - Current tariff policies are estimated to raise the U.S. inflation rate by 0.8% to 1.6%[5] - The average tariff rate is projected to be around 20%, higher than the previous 17% during the 90-day suspension period[5] - The new tariff framework categorizes countries into three groups, affecting their respective tariff rates significantly[4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with two 25 basis point cuts anticipated this year[6] - The July inflation data and the downward revision of employment figures from May and June provide sufficient rationale for potential rate cuts[6] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium may offer further insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction[6]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（8月12日）触底反弹维持震荡，开盘价3349.37美元/盎司，最高价3359.25美元/盎司，最低价 3331.08美元/盎司，收盘价3349.80美元/盎司。 消息面： 白宫发言人莱维特周二表示，美国总统特朗普正考虑起诉美联储主席鲍威尔，因鲍威尔对美联储华盛顿总部装 修的管理问题。特朗普总统早些时候在社交媒体上发表帖子提及这一潜在举措，加剧了特朗普对鲍威尔降息的 持续压力。 美国财长贝森特表示，美联储应考虑在9月降息50个基点。如果数据准确，美联储可能在6月份就降息。 美联储施密德：关税对通胀的影响有限，这是维持政策不变的理由，而不是降息的机会，看不到未来几个月内 关税对价格的影响。支持在改变美联储的政策利率方面抱以"耐心的态度"。政策具有一定限制性，但不是很具 限制性。政策利率离中性不远，通胀仍然太高。 据华尔街日报报道，美联储巴尔金表示，当前有诸多迹象表明，中低收入消费者比几年前更加捉襟见肘，这可 能抑制其消费支出，从而减轻关税对通胀的推升作用。"那种认为（关税）成本必然转嫁导致通胀飙升的理 论，必须经过消费者反应这一关的检验，"他表示，"我认为消费者会接受某些刚需商品的价格上 ...

Inflation Data Overview - In July, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%[3] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, consistent with expectations but down from 0.3% in June[3] - Core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3% and up from 2.9% in June[3] Market Reactions and Expectations - The underwhelming CPI data has led the market to anticipate a rate cut in September, with a positive response in both stock and bond markets[4] - Despite favorable conditions for a rate cut, inflation expectations remain a concern, and the Federal Reserve's stance is expected to be cautious[5] Key Influencing Factors - Energy prices fell significantly, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, down from a 0.9% increase in June, while food prices remained stable at 0%[5] - Core CPI's increase was driven by rising costs in services, particularly in transportation, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.8%[7] Automotive Market Insights - The automotive sector showed strong performance, with new and used car prices rising significantly, driven by consumer demand ahead of the expiration of tax credits for electric vehicles[6] - Approximately 130,000 new electric vehicles were sold in July, marking a 26.4% month-on-month increase, the second-highest monthly sales on record[7] Service Sector Trends - Housing costs are stabilizing, but other core services are experiencing robust price increases, particularly in transportation services, which surged by 4% month-on-month[7] - The super core CPI, excluding housing, reached its highest level of the year, indicating strong consumer demand in various service sectors[7] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff increases that could lead to a global economic slowdown[8]

| 行用模 | 贵金属日评20250813: 美国7月核心CPl年率高于预期前值,关税收入难阻7月财政预算示字增加 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-06 | 收盘价 | 783.68 | 776. 04 | 779. 48 | -3. 44 | -7.64 | | | | | 成交量 | 2, 722. 00 | 194063.00 | 278074.00 | 191341.00 | -84, 011. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 215212. 00 | 204736.00 | 211644.00 | -6, 908. 00 | -10. 476.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 36045.0 ...

周三（8月13日）亚市早盘，现货黄金持稳交投于3350美元附近，隔夜CPI数据公布后，美元指数急速 下挫，重回98关口附近，最终收跌，交易员加大了对美联储在9月降息的押注，黄金日线报收一根小十 字星。 【要闻速递】 美元指数因周二（8月12日）通胀数据公布而走低至近两周低位，该数据基本符合市场预期，且关税成 本仍被静默消化在企业利润率中，并未转嫁给消费者。这为美联储应对疲软的就业数据提供了政策空 间，很可能从9月开始启动降息。当前市场正押注这一预期，关于年内还将降息两次的猜测也持续升 温。特朗普在社交媒体上对鲍威尔的持续抨击亦对美元形成利空，进一步加剧了美元汇率的看跌预期。 【技术分析】 上一交易日周二(8月12日)现货黄金震荡收涨，收取止跌形态，虽未收线在中轨上方，但也暗示后市下 方空间有限，如黄金价格进一步走低，100日均线支撑位置，也是可以再度入场看涨，如今日收线在5日 均线上方，则会加大看涨动力，黄金行情继续等待再度测试3440美元附近阻力压制。 日图来看，金价昨日在回落低位收取震荡十字止跌形态，暗示后市有反弹回升转强的倾向，但需今日金 价反弹重回5日均线上方收线才能验证止跌形态有效，反之将仍偏弱震荡 ...