证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2026 年 02 月 13 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：方堃 执业编号：S0300521050001 电话：010-83755575 邮箱：fangkun@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】透视 2026 物价新局：基期 轮换、体感差异与回升之路》2026-02-11 《【粤开宏观】从地方调研看宏观经济：市 场预期、收入分配与微观活力》2026-02-09 《【粤开宏观】如何认识 5%与 140 万亿》 2026-02-02 《【粤开宏观】2025 年中国区域经济版图： 东进西稳，南升北降》2026-02-01 《【粤开宏观】美联储新主席沃什将如何 "掌舵"？能否保持独立？》2026-01-31 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】2026 年地方政府怎么干 ——下篇：任务怎么做？ 摘要 本文是"2026 年地方经济怎么干"系列的下篇，主要聚焦地方政府的重点任 务，核心是地方围绕扩内需、促创新、育产业、防风险四大板块的部署安排 和各地因地制宜发展产业的情况。2026 年 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a record 9.5 billion trips, averaging nearly 7 trips per person in China, highlighting the immense scale of domestic travel [1] - The integration of high-speed rail and large aircraft, such as the C919, enhances travel efficiency, making same-day travel a norm and showcasing China's advancements in transportation technology [2] - The application of smart technologies in ticketing and travel services significantly improves the efficiency and convenience of travel during the Spring Festival [3] - The massive scale of travel reflects the vibrant potential of China's domestic market, which is poised to drive economic growth [4] Group 1: Transportation Infrastructure - The opening of 22 new high-speed rail lines totaling 3,109 kilometers and the introduction of over 50 new passenger stations for the Spring Festival enhances the capacity of the transportation network [1] - The daily operation of over 14,000 passenger trains and nearly 19,400 flights during peak travel days demonstrates the robust capacity of the transportation system to handle high passenger volumes [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The deployment of 14 C919 aircraft by Eastern Airlines and 9 by Air China during the Spring Festival signifies the growing role of domestic aircraft in enhancing travel options [2] - The continuous upgrades to the 12306 ticketing system and the introduction of AI for passenger flow prediction improve ticket purchasing success rates and overall travel experience [3] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Integration - The expected daily traffic of nearly 9.5 million electric vehicles on highways during the Spring Festival indicates a significant shift towards sustainable travel options [2] - The expansion of charging infrastructure, including over 20 million charging facilities by the end of 2025, supports the growing use of electric vehicles [2] Group 4: Customer Service Enhancements - The introduction of services such as phone ticket booking for the elderly and free ticket refunds within 30 minutes enhances customer service and accessibility [3] - Innovations like "door-to-door" luggage delivery and convenient charging solutions for electric vehicles improve the overall travel experience [3]

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion CNY, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, meeting the growth target[11] - Henan Province's GDP was 66632.79 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, exceeding the initial target of 5.5%[19] - The industrial added value in Henan grew by 8.4%, outperforming the national average by 2.5 percentage points[20] Consumption and Investment - Henan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 29090.50 billion CNY, increasing by 5.6%, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than the national average[21] - Fixed asset investment in Henan grew by 4.0%, leading among the six central provinces, with industrial investment showing a robust increase of 13.3%[22] Trade and Exports - Henan's total foreign trade value reached 9356.7 billion CNY, a 14.1% increase, significantly higher than the national average of 3.8%[23] - High-tech product exports from Henan surged by 27.5 percentage points to 18.7%, with electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products showing substantial growth[24] Market Trends - In January 2026, the Henan Index rose by 7.52%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300[6] - The top three A-shares in Henan for January 2026 were Yuguang Gold Lead (89.87%), Zhongcheng Technology (37.72%), and Guangli Technology (35.67%)[6] Policy and Regulatory Environment - In January 2026, financial regulatory bodies introduced policies to support the real economy and expand domestic demand, focusing on fostering new productive forces[33] - The Henan provincial government implemented several policies aimed at improving economic performance and enhancing living standards in early 2026[37]

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is accelerating the review and issuance of new stocks and refinancing, aiming to support the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and enhance resource allocation towards technological innovation [1][6]. Group 1: New Stock Issuance - Two new stocks, Aide Technology and Haiseng Medical, were listed on the BSE, with Aide Technology's first-day closing price increasing by 176.79% and Haiseng Medical by 172.86% [2]. - Two new stocks, Tongbao Optoelectronics and Tongling Technology, are available for subscription, with expected fundraising of 304 million yuan and 462 million yuan respectively [2][3]. - The subscription funds for Haiseng Medical reached 685.8 billion yuan, while Tongbao Optoelectronics saw an increase to approximately 888.3 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: IPO and Financing - Three companies, Longxin Intelligent, Jiachen Intelligent, and Zhenhong Heavy Industry, are scheduled for IPO meetings, aiming to raise a total of 1.169 billion yuan [3][4]. - The BSE has maintained a high efficiency in IPO reviews, with three companies being reviewed in one week [3]. Group 3: Refinancing Initiatives - Jiangsu Lintai New Materials has announced a refinancing plan to raise 380 million yuan for projects in the new energy vehicle sector and high-end equipment manufacturing [5]. - The BSE's new refinancing measures allow companies to proceed with refinancing even if previous fundraising is not fully utilized, facilitating timely decision-making for SMEs [5][6]. - Since the BSE's inception, 14 companies have applied for refinancing, with 6 successfully registered, indicating a growing trend in refinancing demand among listed companies [7]. Group 4: Market Impact - The introduction of refinancing measures and the announcement of Lintai New Materials' plan are expected to invigorate the BSE market and encourage more successful cases [6]. - The BSE's support for innovative SMEs through refinancing is seen as crucial for their growth and development [6][7].

Core Insights - The global commercial space industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power and the emergence of space photovoltaic technology as a cost-effective energy solution for space activities [1][5] Group 1: Commercial Space Industry - The commercial space sector is entering a high-growth phase, with the US and China as the leading players. By the end of 2024, the number of operational satellites is expected to exceed 11,605, with the US holding a 76% market share and China around 9% [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's satellite launches are projected to increase by 92% year-on-year, significantly surpassing the global average [3] - Domestic policies are increasingly supportive of the commercial space sector, with space energy technology identified as a core focus area in national action plans [3] Group 2: Space Photovoltaic Technology - Space photovoltaic technology offers significant advantages over terrestrial solar power, including better light conditions, higher stability, and no land use requirements. It can generate 5-12 times more energy than ground-based systems [6][8] - The main technologies for space photovoltaic cells include gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite, each with distinct advantages and challenges [8][9] - For low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, ultra-thin HJT crystalline silicon cells are expected to be the preferred choice, while gallium arsenide cells dominate in medium to high orbits [9] Group 3: Market Growth Potential - The current market for space photovoltaic technology is limited due to high launch costs, but steady growth is anticipated. The global market for space crystalline silicon and perovskite photovoltaic cells is projected to reach approximately 30 billion RMB annually from 2026 to 2030, increasing to 250 billion RMB by 2035-2040 [11][14] - A significant factor for future market expansion is the reduction in launch costs. If costs drop from $3,600 to $200-300 per kilogram, the demand for space photovoltaic technology could surge, potentially reaching a market size of 500 billion RMB annually [13][14] - The commercialization of space data centers and the expansion of application scenarios for space photovoltaic technology are expected to accelerate, with potential developments including GW-level space photovoltaic power stations and lunar Lagrange point computing centers [14]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the A500 ETF (512050) dropping by 0.88% and trading volume exceeding 10.9 billion yuan, leading its peers [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by risk aversion and profit-taking ahead of the Spring Festival, although the spring market trend is expected to continue with limited risks during the holiday [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) offers investors a convenient way to invest in core A-share assets, benefiting from low fees (0.2%), strong liquidity, and a large scale exceeding 40 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all 35 sub-industries [1] - The ETF is designed to integrate value and growth attributes, with a natural "barbell" investment characteristic, particularly overweighting sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy compared to the CSI 300 [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider related products such as the A500 ETF (512050) and the A500 Enhanced ETF (512370) [2]

2025年，是中国调味品行业风起云涌、格局重塑的关键一年。未来的行业竞争，将是综合实力领先的"舰队"与区域性或细分领 域"快艇"并存，龙头企业对产业发展的引领作用将愈发关键。海天味业作为调味品行业的龙头企业，凭借规模壁垒、渠道优势 与品牌价值的深厚积淀，尽显强者愈强之势，其发展轨迹正勾勒出产业未来图景。 新调味盘点了海天味业在2025年的十大核心突破，并尝试从中解读可能影响行业未来的十个趋势。 1. "A+H"双上市：开启资本国际化布局 核心突破：2025年6月，海天味业登陆港交所主板，成为国内首家"A+H"上市的调味品企业，募资净额约101亿港元，为全球化 战略提供了坚实的资本引擎。 未来趋势：龙头企业资本运作走向国际。海天味业港股上市，不仅是融资行为，更是搭建全球资本平台、优化公司治理的重要 一步。这也预示着，中国调味品企业的全球化，正从过去的"产品外贸"，升级为依托国际资本市场，进行品牌并购、技术合作 和本土化生产的"系统性作战"。利用国际资本构建全球资源调配能力，正成为海天味业等头部企业与国际巨头同台竞技的入场 券。 2. 入选酱油"灯塔工厂"：智能制造推进产业升级 核心突破：2025年，海天味业获评 ...

（来源：科创中国） 2月9日，广西财政工作会议在南宁召开。会议总结"十四五"特别是2025年财政工作，分析研判财政经济 形势、谋划"十五五"财政工作，部署2026年财政工作。广西壮族自治区财政厅党组书记、厅长李春阳作 工作报告。 会议强调，2026年，广西各级财政部门要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，紧紧围绕铸牢中华民族共同体意识 的主线和高质量发展的首要任务，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，着力落实更加积极的财政政策，提高 政策精准度和有效性，做优增量、盘活存量，着力扩内需、优结构、增动能、惠民生，支持"人工智能 +"赋能千行百业，着力加强财政科学管理，持续加强财源建设，坚持党政机关习惯过紧日子，优化财 政支出结构，着力兜牢基层"三保"底线，防范化解政府债务风险，以财政可持续发展推动经济实现质的 有效提升和量的合理增长，为实现全区"十五五"良好开局提供有力保障。 会议要求，2026年财政工作要围绕更好服务广西发展大局，保障重大决策部署落实落细。一是聚力培育 发展以人工智能为引领的新质生产力。加强财税政策供给，发展壮大智能经济，提升科技创新能力，加 快推动科技成果转化。二是聚力构建以制造业十大产业为支柱的现代化产业体系。 ...

2月12日，省委副书记、省长王新伟主持召开省政府常务会议，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记对辽宁 的重要讲话和重要指示精神，落实省委要求，审议《辽宁省促进跨境电商加快发展行动方案（2026— 2028年）》《辽宁省发展新质生产力母基金组建方案》，听取朝阳职工工学院改制为朝阳职业技术学院 情况汇报，研究做好春节期间有关工作。 会议指出，跨境电商发展速度快、潜力大、带动作用强，已成为外贸发展的新动能。要抢抓跨境电 商发展机遇，精准把握国家政策导向，统筹国内国际两个市场，推动跨境电商高质量发展，形成更多外 贸新增长点。要聚力培育壮大经营主体，支持各类企业"触网升级"，运用跨境电商开拓海外市场，加大 跨境电商平台企业引育力度，支持平台企业深耕细分领域，打造成为有影响力的专业平台。要深化"跨 境电商+产业带"、海外仓与跨境电商、促消费与跨境电商融合发展，积极布局跨境消费新场景。要优 化服务支撑体系，加快建设国家中欧班列集结中心和国际公路运输集结中心，深化通关便利化改革，提 升口岸枢纽效能，优化税收、外汇管理服务，强化金融保险支撑，为跨境电商产业发展营造良好环境。 会议指出，设立并运营好辽宁省发展新质生产力母基金，是我省紧跟国家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between the Central Radio and Television Station and KAYOU marks KAYOU as the exclusive card partner for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, aiming to blend traditional culture with modern aesthetics and technology, appealing to the younger generation and enhancing cultural connections during the festive season [1][7]. Group 1: Collaboration and Cultural Significance - KAYOU's partnership with the Spring Festival Gala is a significant step in merging traditional cultural elements with contemporary trends, creating a unique cultural experience for the audience [1][7]. - The collaboration will feature a series of collectible cards that embody auspicious meanings and showcase modern aesthetics, enhancing the cultural experience of the Spring Festival [1][3]. Group 2: Product Offering and Cultural Heritage - The KAYOU collectible card set includes eight themed cards that reflect classic poetry, historical artifacts, and traditional aesthetics, creating a micro art epic that spans thousands of years of cultural memory [4][6]. - Each card in the collection is designed to convey deep cultural meanings and emotional values, allowing consumers to appreciate the rich heritage behind the products [3][6]. Group 3: Innovation and Market Strategy - KAYOU has developed a diverse IP ecosystem that includes cards, stationery, and plush toys, driven by a dual focus on culture and technology, which enhances the appeal to younger consumers [7][8]. - The company has established partnerships with nearly 70 well-known IPs, with over 40% being domestic cultural IPs, indicating a strong market presence and ongoing expansion [7][8]. Group 4: Global Expansion and Cultural Promotion - KAYOU is actively pursuing global expansion by establishing subsidiaries in various countries, aiming to introduce Chinese cultural products to a wider audience [9]. - The company seeks to break cultural and language barriers through lightweight cultural products, allowing global consumers to experience the charm of Chinese culture [9].