Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that interest rate cuts will drive a recovery in the real estate market [1] Group 1 - Interest rate reductions are expected to stimulate demand in the housing sector, leading to increased home sales and construction activity [1] - The real estate market has been under pressure due to high borrowing costs, and easing rates could alleviate these challenges [1] - A recovery in the real estate market is crucial for overall economic growth, as it impacts various sectors including construction, finance, and consumer spending [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggests that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered [1] - Lowering interest rates is expected to stimulate the housing market [1] - The development of artificial intelligence is leading to a significant increase in productivity [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -下半年降息不确定性增加，需关注7月政治局会议增量信号 [5][36] -若降息落地或相对后置，三季度末或四季度概率高，幅度或延续上半年10BP；若无降息落地，流动性无需过多担忧，债市短端或受冲击，中长期呈震荡格局 [5][36][40] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Possible Scenarios and Boundaries of Interest Rate Cuts - **Monetary Expansion May Not Boost Prices**: "Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices" has become an important consideration for monetary policy. The relationship between prices and money is affected by multiple factors. Overseas, quantitative easing may not solve "low inflation." In China, the current supply - demand imbalance means that monetary expansion may suppress price recovery, so the use of aggregate monetary policy will be more cautious [2][9][12] - **Smoothing the Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism is Also Key**: Besides interest rate cuts, smoothing the interest rate transmission mechanism is crucial for reducing real - economy financing costs. Attention will be paid to financial institutions' pricing ability and enterprises' non - interest costs, especially considering the low net interest margin of commercial banks [3][21] - **Dynamic Balance of Monetary Policy**: The 5.3% GDP growth in H1 2025 reduces the urgency of interest rate cuts in the short term. In supporting expansionary fiscal policy, the central bank has various tools, and interest rate cuts may not be the top option. The central bank's support will be "moderately loose" and maintain a dynamic balance [4][27][29] 3.2 If There is No Interest Rate Cut in the Second Half of the Year - **Interest Rate Cut Scenario**: If an interest rate cut occurs, it may be postponed to the end of Q3 or Q4, with a likely 10BP reduction [5][36] - **No Interest Rate Cut Scenario**: The supportive monetary policy stance remains. Liquidity is not a major concern. In the bond market, short - term bonds may be impacted if market expectations are disappointed. In the long - term, there will be an oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to factors causing bond market fluctuations [5][40]

特朗普急切寻求大幅降息，不顾潜在经济后果。上周五，他再次抨击鲍威尔及美联储官员，指责高利率 政策扼杀房地产市场，尤其影响年轻人购房，并称鲍威尔是"最糟糕的任命之一"。此前，特朗普多针对 鲍威尔个人，但此次他将批评扩大至整个美联储理事会，认为其未能阻止鲍威尔的"伤害性"政策，同样 难辞其咎。他还以"太晚"绰号讽刺鲍威尔，强调其政策对国家的负面影响。 摘要今日周一（7月21日)欧盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于767.30元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报777.40 元/克，上涨0.78%最高触及777.70元/克，最低下探774.01元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周一（7月21日)欧盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于767.30元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报777.40元/ 克，上涨0.78%最高触及777.70元/克，最低下探774.01元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 值得注意的是，尽管特朗普对鲍威尔不满，但美联储内部仍有两名其任期内的提名者——鲍曼和沃勒， 倾向于在7月底的会议上降息。然而，除他们之外，其他成员在9月会议前并未显露出放松货币政策的迹 象。鉴于FO ...

【要闻速递】 摘要周一（7月21日）亚市尾盘，现货黄金午后震荡走高近20美元，刷新三个交易日高点至3369.53美 元/盎司，涨幅约0.57%；COMEX黄金期货主力最新报3373.30美元/盎司，日内涨0.53%。 【行情播报】 周一（7月21日）亚市尾盘，现货黄金午后震荡走高近20美元，刷新三个交易日高点至3369.53美元/盎 司，涨幅约0.57%；COMEX黄金期货主力最新报3373.30美元/盎司，日内涨0.53%。 与此同时，上周公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数意外上升至61.8，显示出美国消费者对未来经济的乐 观情绪有所增强，部分限制了美元进一步下跌空间。 市场目前预期年内或将有两次25个基点的降息操作，但近期美联储主席鲍威尔也警告，若通胀在夏季持 续攀升，可能推迟宽松节奏。 在宏观数据方面，周一美国没有重大数据公布，黄金行情波动主要受政策预期和贸易消息驱动，预计市 场将关注本周稍晚的全球PMI数据。若本周全球制造业PMI数据逊于预期，金价或迎来新一轮上涨动 力，反之则可能回测底部支撑。 在美联储政策信号不一的背景下，美元指数自6月下旬高点回落，也为黄金价格提供支撑。然而，投资 者对美联储是否会在 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed interest in the Fed Chair position and hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in July, citing concerns over weak private sector employment as a reason for action [1] - Waller indicated that the job growth in the previous month was primarily from the public sector, suggesting that the private sector's condition is not as healthy as commonly perceived [1] - A survey showed that economists believe the European Central Bank (ECB) will prefer targeted lending tools over large-scale quantitative easing in response to future economic shocks [1] Group 2 - There is a growing divergence within the ECB regarding short-term policy paths, with expectations that officials will pause rate cuts in the upcoming meeting [1] - Most economists anticipate a final rate cut of 25 basis points in September, while a significant portion believes it may be delayed until December [1] - Approximately 25% of survey respondents think the ECB's rate-cutting cycle has ended, highlighting uncertainty due to external factors, particularly trade negotiations between Europe and the U.S. [1]

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a broad recovery, with domestic equities outperforming overseas markets, particularly in the Hong Kong and ChiNext indices, as the Shanghai Composite Index stabilized above 3500 points [1][16] - The market sentiment improved due to easing tensions between China and the U.S., leading to positive expectations for negotiations and a rise in incremental capital inflows driven by enhanced profitability from mid-year earnings reports [1][16] - The overall pre-announcement profit rate for companies reporting mid-year results reached 44%, indicating structural improvements in earnings, particularly in the TMT, utilities, and transportation sectors [1][16] Economic Data Insights - In June, new social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9 trillion yuan, with a balance growth rate of 8.9% [5] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, slightly below the previous quarter's 5.4%, while industrial output in June rose by 6.8%, exceeding expectations [7][8] - Retail sales in June totaled 42.287 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in domestic demand compared to previous months [9][10] Sector Performance and Strategy - The technology sector is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and structural reforms, with the "new quality productivity" becoming a long-term focus, particularly in the context of AI advancements [2][17] - Financial sectors are likely to attract new capital due to increased long-term assessments by insurance companies, while consumer leaders are positioned for recovery amid low valuations and supportive domestic policies [2][17] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to perform better than A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by strong earnings from technology leaders and high dividend yields attracting institutional investments [18] International Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets showed resilience with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, supported by strong earnings in the financial and technology sectors, despite some volatility due to speculation around Federal Reserve policies [19] - The U.S. inflation data indicated a moderate rise, with the core CPI at 2.9%, suggesting that tariff impacts on inflation have yet to be fully realized [11][12] - The bond market remains stable, with short-term yields outperforming long-term ones, as the market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [21]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average, also bullish. The main positions are net long but decreasing. In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive changes in the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. Overall, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral considering carbon - neutral policies, weak demand, and a soft real - estate market [2]. - The basis is 200, with the spot price at 20710, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [2]. - The SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 5625 tons to 108822 tons last week, a neutral factor [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, also bullish [2]. - In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive changes in the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. With a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Bearish factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot prices**: The Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows that there were supply shortages in most years, except for a small surplus in 2020 and 2024. For example, in 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [24].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing intensified bullish and bearish forces due to ongoing global trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Tensions - The U.S. has increased tariff demands on the EU, prompting the EU to prepare for a third round of countermeasures [1]. - Thailand has introduced a strategy to exempt 90% of U.S. goods from tariffs, while Brazil's President Lula stated he would not yield to U.S. tariff pressures [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials have differing views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a 25 basis point cut in July, while others believe a short-term cut is challenging [1][2]. - Economic data shows a rise in U.S. retail sales by 0.6% in June, which diminishes the urgency for rate cuts [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. government's "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio above 124% [2]. - The core CPI for June rose to 2.9% year-on-year, while the overall CPI reached 2.7%, indicating persistent inflation that may suppress rate cut expectations [2]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver prices have shown stronger upward momentum compared to gold, with New York silver prices surpassing $39.5 per ounce, marking a historical high [3]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is expected to support silver prices, with a projected increase in silver demand of approximately 2,000 tons per year due to expanding solar installations [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The liquidity tightening has provided upward momentum for silver prices, with ETF holdings reaching a historical high of 1.13 billion ounces [4]. - Short-term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, with key support levels for gold at $3,300 per ounce and for silver at $37 per ounce [4]. - Long-term trends indicate that the acceleration of de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases will systematically elevate gold price levels [4].

尽管面临美国总统特朗普关税政策带来的经济风险，欧洲央行仍可能在本周选择按兵不动，将潜在的降 息举措留待日后。 智通财经APP获悉，在周四(即为期七周的夏季休会期前的最后一次决策会议)上，政策制定者们很可能 维持利率在2%不变，将对特朗普30%威胁性关税的回应推迟到政策落地且影响可评估之时。 鉴于多数官员即将开启长假，重申通胀已达目标水平，并将经济前景的研判推迟至9月10-11日会议前发 布新季度预测时，这似乎成为了稳妥之选。 但决策者们心知肚明：危机正在暗涌。除关税隐忧外，欧元走强正在压制物价前景，出口商恐将面临更 大压力。与此同时，法国因膨胀的公共财政可能再度引爆政治危机。 在此背景下，即便欧洲央行管理委员会仍坚持"逐次会议决策"的既定方针，其内部或已悄然形成共识： 9月降息概率正在上升。摩根士丹利经济学家在题为《Ready for the Beach》的预测中指出，行长拉加德 在周四的新闻发布会开场声明中，很可能会重申经济增长风险"倾向下行"。 Bloomberg Economics欧元区高级经济学家David Powell表示："我们预计管理委员会在7月24日会议后的 措辞将与6月类似，为未来进一步降息 ...