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农产品日报:美豆价格上涨,豆粕偏强震荡-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the粕 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors are "cautiously bearish" [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕 market, the current domestic fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is relatively sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and bean meal remains at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Key factors to watch include the Sino - US negotiation situation, policy changes, and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [2] - For the corn market, on the supply side, due to the previous decline in the corn price at the northern ports, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain was relatively low, but this week, the price in the Northeast region has shown a slightly stronger trend, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has slightly recovered. In the North China region, the impact of the weather has subsided, the risk of grain spoilage has significantly decreased, and the pace of selling wet grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of channels, ports, deep - processing enterprises, and feed enterprises all remains at a low level, but the willingness to stock up is low [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2975 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2396 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton or 2.61% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the spot price of bean meal was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 25, down 33 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 45, down 13 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 25, down 3 from the previous day. In Fujian, the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 204, down 11 from the previous day [1] - **Market News**: As of last Thursday, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season reached 36% of the expected sown area, the same as the same period last year, and up from 24% the previous week. As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.061 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 1 - 1.5 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.59 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis The current domestic fundamentals have not changed much, with sufficient arrival volume, high inventory of soybeans and bean meal, and relatively loose overall supply. Key factors to watch are the Sino - US negotiation situation, policy changes, and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [2] 3.1.3 Strategy Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2123 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2424 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 17, down 21 from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 126, up 1 from the previous day [3] - **Market News**: As of October 23, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 55%, up from 51% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year. As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.187 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 1.1 - 2.05 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.325 million tons [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis On the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast has slightly recovered, and the pace of selling wet grain in North China has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of various sectors is low, but the willingness to stock up is low [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy Cautiously bearish [6]
光大期货农产品日报-20251028
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 05:08
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Downward trend with a long - term bearish outlook [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways movement [1] - Oils: Upward trend with a sideways trading strategy [1] - Eggs: Slightly bullish with a sideways bias [1] - Hogs: Sideways movement [2] Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are pressured by increased new - grain supply in the production areas, and the futures price is expected to decline in the long term [1] - Soybean meal prices are influenced by the expectation of China's potential purchase of US soybeans and are expected to move sideways [1] - Oil prices are affected by the weakness of the surrounding market and the bearish palm oil data in the producing areas, with a sideways trading strategy [1] - Egg prices are supported by the rising spot prices and may continue to rebound in the short term, but there is pressure on the upside [1] - Hog prices are supported by the increased fattening enthusiasm in the Northeast and are expected to stop falling and rise in the fourth quarter [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The corn main contract 2601 opened slightly lower on Monday and then the decline widened. New - grain supply increased in the production areas, and the price in the North Port was under pressure. The price in the Northeast adjusted slightly, and the price in North China was generally stable with some narrow - range adjustments. Technically, the price was expected to decline in the long term, with short - term support at 2100 [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose to a six - month high on Monday due to the hope of China's resumption of US soybean purchases. Domestic protein meal mainly moved sideways. The market was waiting for the results of the super - macro week, especially whether China would resume purchasing US soybeans [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day on Monday, hitting a four - week low. High - frequency data showed a slight decrease in the export of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25. Domestic oils mainly moved sideways, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising slightly and palm oil falling slightly. The inventory was high, and the basis was weak [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures continued to rebound on Monday, with the main contract 2512 rising 1.56%. The spot price increased, and the futures price rebounded at a low level. There was an optimistic expectation for future supply improvement, but there was still pressure on the upside [1] - **Hogs**: The main hog contract 2601 gapped up on Monday. The spot price in the production and sales areas was strong. In the Northeast, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening was high over the weekend, and the supply of medium and large hogs was tight. The price was expected to stop falling and rise in the fourth quarter [2] Market Information - From October 1 - 25, 2025, the yield, oil extraction rate, and production of Malaysian palm oil increased compared with the same period last month according to SPPOMA data. Different institutions had different data on the export volume of Malaysian palm oil during this period, with an increase of 23.8% according to SGS and a decrease of 0.27% according to Amspec [3] - On October 27, Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Australian Prime Minister Albanese in Kuala Lumpur, expressing the willingness to strengthen economic cooperation and explore the review and upgrade of the free - trade agreement [3] Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [5][6][10][14] - **Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [13][16][17][22] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [26] - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of experience in the futures industry and many honors [26] - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant research achievements [26]
农产品日报-20251024
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 09:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for different agricultural product varieties are as follows: corn - oscillatory; soybean meal - oscillatory; oils - rising (with an oscillatory strategy); eggs - oscillatory; and pigs - oscillatory [1][2] Core Viewpoints - Corn prices showed mixed trends this week. The North Port prices were under pressure recently, while the prices in North China were stable to slightly stronger. Given the expected corn harvest this year, there is a possibility that corn futures prices may reach new lows [1] - CBOT soybeans rose to a one - month high on Thursday. Domestic protein meal increased with reduced positions, and the soybean meal rose by over 2%. The supply of soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market remains ample, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing [1] - BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday. Domestic palm oil futures prices declined following the foreign market, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated slightly. It is necessary to closely monitor the Sino - US talks and the Fed meeting [1] - Egg futures rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices showed a pattern of mostly stable with a few increases in the production areas, and the purchasing costs in the sales areas were mostly stable with a few increases. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flock [1] - On Thursday, the main hog futures contract oscillated and formed a doji star. After the National Day, hog prices declined rapidly, and the expectation of a technical rebound increased. Although the expansion of the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the entry of second - fattening operations have alleviated the short - term supply pressure to some extent, the oversupply situation remains the main factor influencing prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: This week, corn prices showed mixed trends. The main 2601 contract on Thursday opened slightly lower and then rebounded. Affected by the adjustment of futures prices near the weekend, the North Port quotes were under pressure. In North China, the corn prices continued to be stable to slightly stronger. Considering the expected corn harvest this year, the market generally expects the corn futures prices to reach new lows [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose to a one - month high on Thursday. Domestic protein meal increased with reduced positions, and the soybean meal rose by over 2%. The supply of soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market is ample, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing. The slow procurement of soybeans by oil mills from December to January provides strong cost support for soybean meal [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday. Domestic palm oil futures prices declined following the foreign market, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated slightly. The improvement in the spot trading volume of soybean oil and the rigid demand for palm oil and rapeseed oil were observed. It is necessary to closely monitor the Sino - US talks and the Fed meeting [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices showed a pattern of mostly stable with a few increases in the production areas, and the purchasing costs in the sales areas were mostly stable with a few increases. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flock [1] - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the main hog futures contract oscillated and formed a doji star. After the National Day, hog prices declined rapidly, and the expectation of a technical rebound increased. Although the expansion of the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the entry of second - fattening operations have alleviated the short - term supply pressure to some extent, the oversupply situation remains the main factor influencing prices [2] Market Information - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025. The session proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern [2][3] - The main economic and social development goals for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period were put forward, aiming to achieve a significant leap in China's economic, technological, national defense, and comprehensive national strength and international influence by 2035 [3] - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia from October 24 to 27 for economic and trade consultations with the US [3] - The EU agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and expanded the scope of sanctions to include 12 Chinese companies and 3 Indian companies. China strongly opposes these sanctions and has lodged solemn representations with the EU [3] Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of various agricultural product contracts, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [4][5][6] - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural product contracts, such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [12][13][16] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in multiple analyst selection competitions and has led her team to achieve excellent results [26] - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has rich experience and has won many industry awards [26] - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by mainstream media [26]
南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251024
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:46
Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 24, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Core Viewpoints - Northeast autumn grain harvest is over 80%, with varying selling progress in different provinces; North China and Huanghuai autumn grain harvest is nearly 80% [2] - After the spot price rebounded, farmers' selling sentiment was positive, market supply remained high, and the purchase price showed a weakening trend after rising [2] - The corn futures market rose yesterday, partly due to the sharp rise in soybeans; the spot market was weak, and the number of trucks arriving in Shandong increased significantly [2] - The starch market strengthened, with stable to rising prices in the Northeast and tight supply of small packages in North China [2] - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures continued to rise by nearly 1% [2] Market Data Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis | Location | Corn Price | Change | Location | Corn Starch Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2180 | 0 | Shandong | 2760 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2310 | 0 | Jilin | 2550 | 0 | | Harbin | 2000 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2460 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main Contract Basis | 40 | -7 | Shandong Main Contract Basis | 310 | -24 | [2] Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-23 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2114 | 2117 | 3 | 0.14% | | Corn 01 | 2133 | 2140 | 7 | 0.33% | | Corn 03 | 2163 | 2167 | 4 | 0.18% | | Corn 05 | 2239 | 2244 | 5 | 0.22% | | Corn 07 | 2263 | 2264 | 1 | 0.04% | | Corn 09 | 2274 | 2274 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2410 | 2429 | 19 | 0.79% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2426 | 2450 | 24 | 0.99% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2442 | 2465 | 23 | 0.94% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2549 | 2558 | 9 | 0.35% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2563 | 2575 | 12 | 0.47% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2612 | 2618 | 6 | 0.23% | | Wheat Average Price | 2475 | 2483 | 8 | 0.32% | [3][6] US Corn Prices and Import Profits | Item | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main Contract | 427.75 | 4 | 0.94% | - | | COBT Soybean Main Contract | 1061.25 | 11.5 | 1.1% | - | | CBOT Wheat Main Contract | 513 | 9.25 | 1.84% | - | | US Gulf Duty-paid Price | 2120.45 | 11.14 | 0.53% | 189.55 | | US West Duty-paid Price | 1967.33 | 11.05 | 0.56% | 342.67 | [30] Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - The number of state reserve grain purchase points increased, with an obvious price-supporting purpose, supporting price stability [5] - Weather disturbances in North China changed market expectations, weakening the downward momentum of forward prices and making it difficult to suppress prices during purchases [5] Bearish Factors - Weather disturbances dissipated, market focus returned to supply pressure, supply remained high, and short-term price pressure increased [2] - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the long-term feed demand for corn [5]
农产品日报:静宁富士价格偏高,新疆红枣进度远超常规-20251024
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for apples is neutral [4]. - The investment strategy for red dates is also neutral [8]. 2. Core Views of the Report - For apples, late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it's difficult to organize a large quantity of red apples. The acquisition period may be shortened. It's expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with a significant price gap between high - quality and ordinary apples [4]. - For red dates, if the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price of red dates will face a situation of limited upward movement and sufficient downward support, showing a volatile pattern. The new - season red dates in the main producing areas have not been harvested in large quantities, and it's expected that the harvesting work will start after the Frost's Descent [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,830 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis of AP01 was - 1330 in Qixia and - 530 in Luochuan, down 36 from the previous day [1]. Market Information - The trading volume of late Fuji in production areas continues to increase, and the market remains stable and firm. In Shandong, trading has increased slightly, but the proportion of harvested apples is still low. In Gansu, the overall market is stable, and the harvesting progress is fast, with merchants mainly storing apples in warehouses. In Shaanxi, the ordering of high - quality goods is in the middle - late stage, and the price of ordinary goods is chaotic. The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm in the short term, while the price of ordinary - quality apples may weaken slightly [2]. Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed slightly higher, and the national apple spot market continued to be stable and firm, with increasing trading volume. The market is characterized by a price gap between high - quality and ordinary apples. The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm, while the price of ordinary apples may decline due to increased supply. The game between merchants' purchasing mentality and farmers' selling mentality should be closely monitored [3]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. It's expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with a significant price gap between high - quality and ordinary apples [4]. Red Dates Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,165 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 0.89% from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis of CJ01 was - 1565, up 100 from the previous day [5]. Market Information - In Xinjiang, the orchard - ordering process in main grey - date producing areas is fast, and the harvesting time is slightly earlier than last year. The mainstream price is 6.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg. In Hebei and Guangdong markets, the price is stable or slightly weak. It's expected that the spot price will remain stable in the short term [6]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price showed a volatile downward trend yesterday. The harvesting and orchard - ordering process in Xinjiang is fast, with the characteristic of "high - quality goods at high prices". The inventory in the sales areas is still under pressure, and the new - season yield is expected to be 56 - 62 tons. The quality of red dates is better than last year [7]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price will show a volatile pattern. The harvesting progress and price changes after the Frost's Descent should be monitored [8].
美国政府向玉米种植户发放补贴 晚籼稻期货维持不变
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-23 04:16
Group 1 - The main contract for late indica rice futures remains unchanged at 2535.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 2 - According to foreign media forecasts, U.S. corn net export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to be between 800,000 to 2,000,000 tons as of the week ending October 16, 2025 [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) anticipates that Brazil's corn exports for October will reach 6.57 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 6.46 million tons [2] - As of the week ending October 17, the deliverable inventory of corn at CBOT was reported at 15.067 million bushels, a 23.80% increase from the previous week’s 12.17 million bushels, but a 37.27% decrease from the same period last year when it was 24.019 million bushels [2] - The Executive Director of the International Sugar Organization (ISO) stated that U.S. government subsidies to corn growers distort U.S. corn ethanol export prices, impacting market competition [2]
农产品日报:苹果产区统货价乱,红枣市场供需僵持-20251023
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both apples and dates is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The apple market shows a significant differentiation pattern of "high - quality goods with firm prices and common goods with chaotic prices". The price of high - quality late - Fuji apples is expected to remain stable and firm, while the price of common - quality apples may decline. The acquisition period may be shortened due to weather conditions [3][4] - The date market presents a situation of "active production areas and cautious sales areas". The inventory pressure still exists, and the new - season date production is estimated to be between 56 - 62 million tons. If the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend may continue; otherwise, the futures price will be in a shock pattern [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,794 yuan/ton, a change of - 56 yuan/ton or - 0.63% from the previous day. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 semi - commercial late - Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 1294 in Qixia and AP01 - 494 in Luochuan both increased by 56 compared to the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price declined slightly yesterday, while the spot market was generally stable and firm. The acquisition of high - quality goods in Shaanxi and Gansu is in the later stage and being warehoused. In Shandong, although the trading volume has increased, the fruit quality is average, leading to cautious acquisition by merchants. The price of high - quality goods is expected to remain stable and firm, while the price of common - quality goods may decline with the increase in supply [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The late - Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large amount of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high - quality goods will be stable and firm, with obvious price differentiation [4] Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,265 yuan/ton, a change of - 115 yuan/ton or - 1.01% from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1665 increased by 115 compared to the previous day [5] Market Analysis - The date futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The spot market presented a pattern of "active production areas and cautious sales areas". The picking process in Xinjiang has accelerated, while the arrival volume in major sales areas such as Hebei and Guangdong is limited. The inventory pressure still exists, and the new - season production is estimated to be between 56 - 62 million tons. The date quality is better than that of the same period last year [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. If the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of dates may continue; otherwise, the futures price will be in a shock pattern. The large - scale picking of new - season dates in the main production areas has not started yet, and it is expected to begin after the Frost's Descent. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes [8]
农产品日报:现货价格下调,豆粕偏弱震荡-20251023
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] Core Viewpoints - For the soybean meal market, although the USDA has not released the latest data, Brazil's strong export performance is pressuring the CBOT soybean prices and leading to ample domestic supply. Future market focus will be on policy changes and the import situation of new - season US soybeans [2] - In the corn market, the new - season corn in domestic production areas is being concentratedly supplied, resulting in a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The overall price of new grain is low, and subsequent attention should be paid to national policies [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2885 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2307 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.60%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2860 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2520 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Brazil's exports: In October, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to be 7.34 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume is expected to be 2.09 million tons [1] - Brazil's soybean sowing progress: As of October 18, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean season was 21.7%, higher than the previous week's 11.1% and last year's 17.6%, but lower than the five - year average of 27.7% [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2133 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.51%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2426 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.12%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Brazil's corn exports: In October, Brazil's corn export volume is expected to be 6.57 million tons [3] Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Brazil's strong exports are pressuring CBOT soybean prices, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The future market focus is on policy changes and the import of new - season US soybeans [2] Corn - Domestically, the new - season corn in the Northeast and North China is being concentratedly supplied. The supply exceeds demand, and the overall price of new grain is low. Attention should be paid to national policies [5] Strategy - For both the soybean meal and corn sectors, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3][6]
《农产品》日报-20251023
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 01:20
Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Overall, a phase of bearish sentiment is maintained. Palm oil may test the support around 9000 yuan, and the market is expected to gradually stabilize if it can find support at this level. Soybean oil has a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the domestic futures market may maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. The spot basis quotation may have limited fluctuation space [1]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price has limited rebound momentum due to supply expectations. It is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 16 cents per pound. The 9 - month production and sales data is moderately bearish, and the market is expected to maintain a shock - weak pattern [3][4]. - **Meal Products**: The spot price of domestic soybean meal is expected to have limited upward movement this year, but the downward space is also limited. If the market does not purchase US soybeans, the M2601 contract has support around 2900, and attention should be paid to the uncertainty of arrivals [6]. - **Pigs**: In the long - term, the supply pressure of pigs in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. The policy - driven industry capacity reduction effect needs time to materialize, and the spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The short - term disk operation may be strong, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the slow increase in corn supply supports the price, but it is under pressure from the supply side. The disk is expected to maintain a low - level shock [12][14]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, cotton prices will fluctuate within a range. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract has cost support at low levels, but there is also increasing hedging pressure above 13500 - 13600. The downstream terminal demand is weak, but textile enterprises have demand for cotton raw materials at current prices [15]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize for observation, but there is still overall pressure due to sufficient supply and improving demand [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On October 22, compared with October 21, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased to varying degrees. The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased, while the basis of palm oil increased. The cross - period spreads of various oils also changed, with the palm oil cross - period spread increasing significantly [1]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: For palm oil, the high production in the first 20 days has a negative impact on the market, and the end - of - month inventory estimate and the MPOB report are key factors. For soybean oil, factors such as US inventory changes, Brazilian biodiesel policies, and domestic market competition all affect the market [1]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the prices of sugar futures and spot decreased. The production and sales data showed an increase in production and sales, but the sales rate decreased slightly. The import price of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the price difference with domestic sugar also changed [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The supply pressure from Brazil and the market's attention to the production prospects of India and Thailand affect the raw sugar price. The 9 - month production and sales data and new sugar pre - sale prices affect the domestic sugar market [3][4]. Meal Products - **Price and Inventory**: The prices of domestic soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed minor changes. The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is still at a high level, and the recent purchase has slowed down due to poor crushing margins [6]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: The improvement of the US soybean export expectation, the smooth sowing of Brazilian new - crop soybeans, and the high domestic soybean import volume all affect the market. The uncertainty of soybean arrivals also needs attention [6]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the futures price of pigs decreased slightly, while the spot price increased. The slaughter volume increased slightly, and the prices of piglets, sows, and other indicators also changed. The breeding profit decreased significantly [9]. - **Influencing Factors**: The short - term rebound of pig prices is mainly due to secondary fattening, but the long - term supply pressure is still large, and the policy - driven capacity reduction effect needs time to be reflected [9]. Corn - **Price and Inventory**: On October 22, the price of corn futures decreased, and the basis increased. The inventory of corn and corn starch changed, with the corn warehouse receipt increasing significantly [12]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: The weather in different regions affects the corn harvest and price. The demand side is relatively cautious, and the subsequent procurement intention of deep - processing and feed enterprises will increase [12][14]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the price of cotton futures decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The commercial inventory increased significantly, while the industrial inventory decreased slightly. The import volume increased [15]. - **Influencing Factors**: The firm purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton provides cost support, but the weak downstream terminal demand and increasing hedging pressure limit the upward space of cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the price of egg futures decreased, and the spot price remained unchanged. The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged, and the price of culled chickens decreased. The egg - to - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [18][19]. - **Influencing Factors**: The high inventory of laying hens, the improvement of egg - laying rate and egg weight, and the increasing demand from downstream trade - ups all affect the egg price [19].
光大期货农产品日报-20251022
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 11:17
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The corn futures price continued to rebound on Tuesday, with the forward contracts 2607 and 2609 leading the rise and the near - month contracts following. The spot price in North China was strong. Traders' willingness to store increased as the bad - grain risk decreased. The short - term outlook is a shock rebound [1]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean closed lower on Tuesday due to profit - taking. The domestic protein meal continued to fluctuate. Although the spot supply of soybean meal was loose, the slow purchase of soybeans by oil mills from December to January provided cost support. The strategy is to maintain a shock mindset [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: The BMD palm oil first rose and then fell on Tuesday. The ringgit - quoted palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 20 increased. The domestic oil futures price fluctuated. The stock of domestic palm oil climbed last week, while that of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased slightly. The strategy is a shock mindset [1]. - Eggs: During the position - shifting process of the egg futures on Tuesday, the price rebounded from a low level. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The supply - side pressure was high, and the future focus is on the change in the breeding end's willingness to replenish and eliminate [1]. - Pigs: The main contract of live pigs 2601 first fell and then rose on Tuesday. The pig price in Northeast China was strong. The entry of second - fattening pigs supported the market to some extent, but the overall supply - demand situation was still oversupplied, with a shock outlook [2]. Group 3: Market Information - Palm Oil: The SPPOMA data showed that from October 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit, oil - extraction rate, and output of Malaysian palm oil increased compared to the same period last month. AmSpec data indicated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [2][3]. - Wheat: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launched a 60 - day campaign on October 20 to combat autumn floods, rush to sow wheat, and promote strong seedlings. Seven working groups and scientific and technological teams were dispatched to major winter - wheat - producing provinces in the Huang - Huai - Hai region [3]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - Contracts including corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, soybean oil 1 - 5, palm oil 1 - 5, eggs 1 - 5, and live pigs 1 - 5 spreads are presented in the report [4][5][6][10][14]. 4.2 Contract Basis - Contracts including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs basis are presented in the report [12][13][16][17][22]. Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to achieve many honors [26]. - Hou Xueling, an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards and published multiple articles [26]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many team honors and been interviewed by mainstream media [26].