农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，在玉米现货延续上涨、港口玉米库存下降的双重利多作用影响下，玉米近 月 2601 合约突破创新高，远期跟随上涨。目前，中央储备玉米轮换采购价格继 | | | | 续上涨，现货报价继续走高，期、现报价联动上涨。今日华北地区玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏弱运行。山东深加工企业早间门前剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加 | | | | 工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。 | | | | 供应来看，经过前期价格上调，基层农户售粮积极性略有提升，但贸易环节收购 | | | 玉米 | 较为谨慎，目前干粮供应依然较少。需求来看，深加工企业看量调价，库存水平 | 震荡上涨 | | | 维持低位，饲料企业刚需补库为主。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面仍偏 | | | | 强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上量一 | | | | 般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态滚 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. Core Views of the Reports Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil is expected to gradually recover after risk release, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, with an expected support level at 8200 [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is affected by related varieties, and its short - term trend is uncertain. In China, soybean oil production has increased while demand is weak, but oil mills have a tendency to support prices. Spot basis quotes will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply of pigs is continuously recovering, and the demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to maintain a weak and oscillating structure. The strategy of 3 - 7 inverse spread can be continued [4]. Meal (Bean and Rapeseed Meal) - The market has fully priced in China's procurement expectations for US soybeans, and the supply of US soybeans remains loose. South American new - crop soybeans have a good planting progress. In China, the soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - The price of corn in the Northeast region is strong, while in the North China region, the price decline is limited. The demand side shows different inventory replenishment attitudes. The short - term supply - demand mismatch and market sentiment make the futures price strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by concentrated grain sales [9]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. In China, the new sugar in Guangxi has been launched, and the price is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern this week [13][14]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are supported by export sales reports and a weak dollar. In China, the high production of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season creates hedging pressure, but the strong basis and resilient demand support the price, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Eggs - The inventory in the production and circulation links of eggs has decreased. With egg prices below the feed cost line, the decline space is limited. As prices reach a low level, demand may gradually recover, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On November 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day, with a 0.24% increase. The futures price of Y2601 was 8144 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan, a 0.30% decrease. The basis was 13.66%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On November 25, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8370 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a 0.71% decrease. The futures price of P2601 was 8360 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan, a 1.48% decrease. The basis was 117.86%. The Malaysian palm oil import profit showed a certain pattern of change [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract of live pigs decreased by 165 yuan/ton, a 110.00% decrease. The price of LH2605 was 11995 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan, a 0.59% increase; LH2601 was 11415 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan, a 0.13% increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 580 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan, a 10.48% decrease [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showed different degrees of decline. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 92, a 0.04% increase. The weekly white - strip price decreased by 18.42 yuan/kg, a 100.00% decrease [4]. Meal (Bean and Rapeseed Meal) - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3013 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, a 0.07% increase. The basis was - 13 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, an 18.18% decrease. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import profit from the disk increased by 20 yuan, a 333.3% increase [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, a 0.82% increase. The futures price of RM2601 was 2431 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan, a 0.61% decrease. The basis was 29 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan, a 583.33% increase [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2242 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan, a 0.99% increase. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2270 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, a 0.89% increase. The basis was 28 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, a 6.67% decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 21 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan, a 52.27% increase [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan, a 0.83% increase. The spot price in Changchun was 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, an 84.00% decrease [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of SR2601 was 5387 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan, a 0.32% increase. The price of SR2605 was 5325 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, a 0.11% increase. The 1 - 5 spread was 62 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan, a 21.57% increase [13]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were 5450 yuan/ton and 5440 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4097 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan, a 0.59% increase [13]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of CF2605 was 13580 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, a 0.37% increase. The price of CF2601 was 13645 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan, a 0.44% increase. The 5 - 1 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, an 18.18% decrease [15]. - **Spot**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton at the factory was 14599 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan, a 0.17% increase. The CC Index: 3128B was 14832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan, a 0.26% increase [15]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of JD12 was 2950 yuan/500KG, down 42 yuan, a 1.42% decrease. The price of JD01 was 3210 yuan/500KG, down 8 yuan, a 0.25% decrease. The 12 - 01 spread was - 294 yuan/500KG, down 34 yuan, a 13.08% decrease [18]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.91 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan, a 1.11% increase. The egg - chicken chick price was 2.70 yuan/feather, down 0.10 yuan, a 3.57% decrease [18].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is to be treated weakly for now due to doubts about inventory reduction at the origin [1]. - Soybean oil is expected to mainly trade in a range, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is to be widened [1]. Section Summaries Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil closed at 8,360 yuan/ton (down 1.48% during the day session) and 8,336 yuan/ton (down 0.29% - 0.66% during the night session); soybean oil closed at 8,144 yuan/ton (down 0.29% during the day session) and 8,090 yuan/ton (no night - session change provided); rapeseed oil closed at 9,818 yuan/ton (up 0.41% during the day session) and 9,718 yuan/ton (down 1.02% during the night session); Malaysian palm oil closed at 3,990 ringgit/ton (down 1.60% during the day session) and 3,985 ringgit/ton (down 0.13% during the night session); CBOT soybean oil closed at 50.63 cents/pound (up 0.22%) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil trading volume was 597,491 lots (up 19,647), and open interest was 403,650 lots (up 1,873); soybean oil trading volume was 193,598 lots (down 6,902), and open interest was 400,254 lots (down 12,897); rapeseed oil trading volume was 331,005 lots (up 27,934), and open interest was 213,554 lots (down 21,536) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 8,370 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,520 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 10,260 yuan/ton (no change); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,025 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars) [2]. - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 10 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 376 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 442 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 1,458 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 216 yuan/ton; palm oil 1 - 5 spread was - 82 yuan/ton; soybean oil 1 - 5 spread was 198 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 330 yuan/ton [2]. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Exports**: ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25, 2025, were 1,041,935 tons, a 18.8% decrease from the same period last month; AmSpec reported exports of 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease from the same period last month [3][4][5]. - **US Agricultural Aid**: The Trump administration is expected to announce a package of aid for US farmers within two weeks [5]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Brazil's November soybean exports are expected to reach 440 tons (down from last week's forecast of 471 tons), and soybean meal exports are expected to be 250 tons (down from last week's forecast of 268 tons) [5]. - **Argentine Soybean Processing**: Argentina's October soybean crushing was 4,036,171 tons, with soybean oil production of 794,211 tons and soybean meal production of 2,976,944 tons. As of November 1, 2025, soybean inventory was 2,798,823 tons, soybean oil inventory was 296,624 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1,050,328 tons [5]. - **EU Imports**: As of November 21, 2025, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 1.12 million tons (down from 1.36 million tons last year); soybean imports were 4.66 million tons (down from 5.41 million tons last year); soybean meal imports were 7.02 million tons (down from 7.83 million tons last year); rapeseed imports were 1.51 million tons (down from 2.53 million tons last year) [6]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast remains at 20.028 million tons, exports at 7 million tons, domestic use at 12.226 million tons, and ending inventory at 2.5 million tons [6]. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [7].

| 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，暂时偏弱对待 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：移仓换月，震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：近月合约表现强于远期合约 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：去库节点已至 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,360 | 涨跌幅 -1.48% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,336 | 涨跌幅 -0.29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,144 | -0.29% | 8,090 | -0.66% | | | 菜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse its current supply - excess and inventory - accumulation situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20] Summary by Directory Soybean and Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated, Brazilian soybean premiums rose, and the cost of imported soybeans remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with an offer of 2,980 yuan/ton in East China. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from last week. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year, and soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons. [2] - Brazilian soybean planting areas had slightly less rainfall in November than usual, but more rainfall is forecasted for December, and planting is expected to proceed smoothly. The November USDA report estimated that the global soybean production and consumption in the 25/26 season are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed from double - growth to supply - decrease and demand - increase. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%. [2] Strategy Viewpoints - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, and is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. [6] - MYSTEEL statistics showed that the total domestic oil inventory remained flat last week. Palm oil inventory was at a normal level year - on - year and continued to accumulate. The de - stocking trend of soybean oil rebounded due to increased crushing volume, and rapeseed oil continued to de - stock due to a shortage of Canadian rapeseed imports. The total oil inventory is expected to decrease in the future. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic oil prices fell sharply. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil in November was weak, and high - frequency data still showed month - on - month production increase. Domestic spot basis was stable. [6] Strategy Viewpoints - The unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses its market performance. Palm oil may reverse its current situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound. The closing price of the January contract was 5,387 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 146,000 tons, a decrease of 264,000 tons. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. Indian sugar production has increased significantly compared to the same period last year. [10] Strategy Viewpoints - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. The closing price of the January contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The spot price index rose, and the basis was 1,187 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.05 yuan to 2.93 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream digestion was average, and the market was in a stalemate. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with minor fluctuations. [16] Strategy Viewpoints - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.15 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 11.56 yuan/kg. Market demand increased slightly, while pig slaughter volume continued to increase, resulting in oversupply. Pig prices may continue to decline today. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-25 终端观望为主，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3011元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.03%；菜粕2601合约2446元/吨，较前日 变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.62%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+39， 较前日变动+11；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-31，较前日变动+11；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-41，较前日变动+1。福建地区菜粕现货价格2630 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM01+184，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周五公布，美国8月大豆压榨量为594万吨。11月21日，咨询机构Patria Agronegocios表 示，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植面积已经达到预估面积的79.61%，低于上一作物年度同期的83.29%。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松，大豆持续到港，油厂开机率虽有所上升，但库存消耗较为缓慢，依旧维持在百万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face further downward pressure, and Dalian palm oil futures are likely to continue to weaken. [1] - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a rebound after over - selling, and domestic soybean oil is supported by high import costs but has a pattern of sufficient supply and weak demand. [1] Meal - U.S. soybeans face supply - demand pressure, and South American new - crop soybeans have good planting progress, so the supply pressure continues to be released. Domestic meal prices are expected to oscillate widely. [2] Corn - Corn prices are affected by the rhythm of supply. In the short - term, the futures market is strong, but subsequent selling pressure may limit the gains. [5] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held. [10] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. Domestic sugar prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening pattern this week. [13] Cotton - Globally, the cotton supply is loose. Domestically, cotton prices may oscillate in a range in the short - term. [14] Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at the previous low. [17] Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with November 21, soybean oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 8490 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 22 yuan to 8168 yuan, and the basis increased by 42 yuan to 322 yuan. Palm oil's spot price in Guangdong decreased by 40 yuan to 8430 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 64 yuan to 8486 yuan, and the basis increased by 24 yuan to - 56 yuan. Rapeseed oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 10190 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 38 yuan to 9778 yuan, and the basis increased by 58 yuan to 412 yuan. [1] Meal - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, soybean meal's spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, the futures price (M2601) decreased by 1 yuan to 3011 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to - 11 yuan. Rapeseed meal's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2440 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) increased by 12 yuan to 2446 yuan, and the basis increased by 5 yuan to - 6 yuan. [2] Corn - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 2220 yuan, the basis increased by 5 yuan to 30 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13 yuan to - 44 yuan. [5] Live Pigs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 65 yuan to 11925 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan to - 525 yuan. The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 11550 yuan. [10] Sugar - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5370 yuan, the Nanning spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5450 yuan, and the Nanning basis decreased by 47 yuan to 131 yuan. [13] Cotton - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 82 yuan to 13530 yuan, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan to - 50 yuan, and the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 3 yuan to 14574 yuan. [14] Eggs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the price of the egg 12 - contract increased by 16 yuan to 2950 yuan per 500KG, the egg - producing area price decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty, and the basis increased by 43 yuan to - 302 yuan per 500KG. [17]

Group 1: Oil Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - Palm oil: The Malaysian palm oil market is under pressure due to potential production growth and weak exports. Dalian palm oil futures are also weak, with short - term support levels to be tested. There is a risk of further decline if the bearish factors persist [1]. - Soybean oil: The market is dragged by the potential negative impact of the US biodiesel policy and uncertain US soybean exports. Downstream demand is limited, but the oil - mill profit provides some support for the basis price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, compared with November 20, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade soybean oil decreased by 1.17% to 8470 yuan, and the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 0.41% to 8190 yuan. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 2.31% to 8470 yuan, and the futures price of P2601 decreased by 1.11% to 8550 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.99% to 10170 yuan, and the futures price of OI601 increased by 0.38% to 9816 yuan [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 100% to 0, and the 2601 contract spread increased by 4.99% to - 722. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread increased by 13.33% to 1700, and the 2601 contract spread increased by 4.57% to 1626 [1]. Group 2: Meal Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The recent strong US soybean crushing data supports the US soybean price, but the market has fully priced in the uncertainty of China's soybean procurement. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The futures price has limited downward space but lacks the momentum to rise. It is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 0.17% to 3012 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.83% to 2420 yuan, and the futures price of RM2601 increased by 0.79% to 2431 yuan [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread decreased by 3.33% to 580, and the 2601 contract spread decreased by 3.97% to 581 [3]. Group 3: Live Hogs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The market supply has recovered, and the price has turned weak again. Although the demand is expected to increase in the short - term due to cold weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the market is not optimistic about the medium - term price. The strategy of 3 - 7 reverse spread can be continued [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of live hogs 2605 decreased by 0.67% to 11860 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2601 decreased by 0.79% to 11350 yuan/ton. The spot price in Henan decreased by 0.43% to 11700 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Hebei decreased by 0.85% to 11650 yuan/ton [5]. - **Indicator Changes**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.07% to 201586 heads, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100% to 0 yuan, and the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 18.37% to - 136 yuan/head [5]. Group 4: Corn and Corn Starch Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The current spot price of corn is stable and slightly strong due to farmers' reluctance to sell, limited logistics in the Northeast, and government procurement support. However, the price increase is limited due to the expected selling pressure after the harvest and the shrinking profit of deep - processing enterprises. The corn price will fluctuate with the supply rhythm [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 1.25% to 2195 yuan/ton, and the futures price of corn starch 2601 increased by 1.58% to 2512 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit of corn increased by 25.64% to 40 yuan, and the import profit increased by 3.22% to 325 yuan [8]. - **Indicator Changes**: The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 16.54% to 318, and the warehouse - receipt quantity of corn decreased by 0.83% to 68764 [8]. Group 5: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The global sugar market is in a relatively calm state. The new sugar in Guangxi has been launched, and the futures price is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.24% to 5353 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2605 decreased by 0.34% to 5302 yuan/ton. The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.54% to 5480 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.36% to 5470 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Indicator Changes**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1048 million tons. The industrial inventory in the whole country decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons [12]. Group 6: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The market demand for eggs is weak, and there is a risk of price decline in some areas. However, due to the price approaching the feed cost line and farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, the decline space is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 1.77% to 2934 yuan/500KG, and the futures price of the 01 - contract decreased by 1.67% to 3184 yuan/500KG. The egg - chicken price decreased by 3.57% to 2.70 yuan/feather, and the culled - chicken price decreased by 3.96% to 3.88 yuan/jin [15]. - **Indicator Changes**: The egg - feed ratio increased by 2.56% to 2.40, and the breeding profit increased by 13.05% to - 23.06 yuan/feather [15]. Group 7: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - Globally, the cotton supply is abundant, and the impact of factors affecting the US cotton harvest on production is limited. In China, the high output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season brings hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient downstream demand provide some support. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.22% to 13445 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2601 decreased by 0.04% to 13460 yuan/ton. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton increased by 0.05% to 14571 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industry Indicator Changes**: The commercial inventory increased by 24.2% to 363.97 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 4.9% to 93.14 million tons. The cotton export volume decreased by 0.3% to - 1685.60 million tons [17].

Report Overview - **Industry**: Agricultural products [1] - **Date**: November 21, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Yulan Lan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Report's Core View - The overall international vegetable oil market is trending downward due to the uncertainty of US biodiesel policy and the weakness of crude oil futures. The three major oils show differentiated trends: palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to be weakly volatile; rapeseed oil is policy - dominated and is mainly a long - position configuration in the short term; soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400 yuan. The external market of soybean meal may fluctuate at a high level, and domestic soybean meal will adjust weakly. Egg prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and the egg futures market may grind the bottom. Cotton prices are in a narrow - range shock, waiting for a direction [8][9][52][53][87][109][111] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Directory Summary Oils - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Palm oil is weakly volatile and continues to hit new lows due to high production, weak exports, and high domestic inventory. Soybean oil futures rise first and then fall, with supply pressure in the long - term and a possible de - stocking rhythm in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, supported by inventory reduction. The overall international vegetable oil market is under pressure, and different oils have different trends [8][9] - **Core Points** - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all decreased weekly, and their basis also declined [10] - **Domestic Three - major Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil inventory increasing, palm oil inventory increasing, and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [23] - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: As of the end of the 46th week, the soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate increased, and the soybean crushing volume increased. The import rapeseed opening rate was almost stagnant. The 2025/2026 annual soybean and rapeseed arrivals have different changes compared with the previous year [25][31] - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased, and exports decreased. India's palm oil imports are expected to increase. Malaysia and Indonesia have different outlooks on palm oil prices and production [35][36] - **CFTC Positions**: The CFTC report is suspended [46] Soybean Meal - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly. The external market of US soybeans may be in a high - level shock after the USDA report, and domestic soybean meal adjusted weakly. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock and focus on the straddle double - selling strategy for options [51][52][53] - **Core Points** - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA November report adjusted the new - season US soybean data, with a decrease in planting and harvest areas, a slight decrease in the expected single - yield, and a decrease in the export item. South American soybean production is expected to remain stable. The sowing progress in different regions varies, and the weather has different impacts [54][55][56] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of October 2, the US soybean exports in the 25/26 season are lower than last year. The market is concerned about whether China can meet the procurement volume [61] - **Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing**: The pressing profit of imported soybeans is negative. The opening rate and pressing volume of oil mills may decrease in the future. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the port inventory will change [70][71] - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: As of November 14, the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The transaction in October was tepid, and the terminal demand is expected to be positive [76] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of November 20, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract increased, and it is expected to operate at a low level in the short term. The 1 - 5 spread decreased, and there is a possibility of an upward trend [82] - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the quantity is at a relatively high level in the same period [85] Eggs - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The spot egg price stabilized after a decline. The futures market may grind the bottom. It is recommended to focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options and the reverse spread rolling operation for the spread [87] - **Data Summary** - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The current laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period. The replenishment momentum has slowed down. The proportion of different - age egg - laying hens and egg sizes has changed [89][91] - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: The egg price, egg - laying hen feed cost, and egg - laying hen chick price have different changes. The breeding profit is negative [96][98] - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume has increased slightly, the culling age has advanced, and the price is at a low level in the same period [98] - **Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price**: The egg sales volume is at a low level in the same period, the inventory is relatively high, and the pig price is at a low level in the same period [104] Cotton - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The external market of cotton is weakly volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates in a narrow range. The domestic spot market is cold, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is in a shock adjustment, waiting for a direction [109][110][111] - **Core Points** - **Main Cotton - producing Countries**: The USDA November report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with an increase in production, consumption, and inventory [112] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of October 2, the US cotton sales and shipments in the 2025/2026 season have different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year [119] - **Textile Enterprises Operation**: As of November 14, the inventory of cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton grey cloth in textile enterprises has different changes, and the load index has also changed [121] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of November 21, the basis of the cotton 01 contract decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [130] - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 30, the non - commercial net position of cotton decreased. As of November 20, the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts decreased [132]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply is expected to remain in surplus in the 2025/26 season. With ample supply, the raw sugar price will likely stay weak. In the Chinese market, the old - sugar stock has been mostly cleared, new - sugar pressure is increasing, and the October import volume exceeded expectations, so the overall sugar market is expected to be weak [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Related Products**: The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean meal supply is abundant. The downward space of the current futures price is limited, but it is difficult to strengthen based on cost and profit logic alone. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Pig**: The market supply has recovered, and the price has weakened again. Although the demand is expected to increase in the short - term due to cold weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the mid - term price is not optimistic, and the increased selling enthusiasm after price recovery is not conducive to the near - month futures market. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [6]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are stable, supported by strong demand in the USDA report. In the domestic market, the short - term pressure from new cotton listing and high production, combined with weak downstream demand, may lead to a weak cotton price within a certain range, although the relatively low inventory of downstream spinning enterprises provides some support [8]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The supply in the Northeast is sufficient but the selling enthusiasm is low, and the market is quiet with stable prices. In North China, the number of trucks at deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price has slightly increased. With about 20% of the new - season corn sold, there is still selling pressure. The demand from deep - processing and feed sectors is not strong. The corn market will have intensified long - short competition and narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term [10]. - **Edible Oils**: For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD futures may stop falling and strengthen after stabilizing at 4150 ringgit. The domestic palm oil may rise to the 8900 - 9000 yuan range. The overall view is near - weak and far - strong. For soybean oil, the CBOT soybean oil is in a short - term correction. The domestic soybean oil demand is weak, but the poor crushing profit provides some support, and the support for the January contract is around 8200 yuan [13]. - **Eggs**: The laying - hen inventory remains high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions and wait and see in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased, the ICE raw sugar主力 slightly increased, the 1 - 5 spread widened, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, the Nanning basis decreased, and the Kunming basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The national and Guangxi sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the national sales rate decreased, the Guangxi sales rate increased, the national industrial inventory decreased, and the Guangxi and Yunnan industrial inventories increased. The sugar import volume increased [2]. Soybean Meal and Related Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot and futures prices of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased, the basis decreased significantly, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased slightly [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price decreased slightly, the basis increased, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans increased, the futures prices of bean one and bean two decreased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal and rapeseed meal inter - month spreads, the oil - meal ratio, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed to different degrees [4]. Pig - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2601 and 2605 decreased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions decreased, and the slaughter volume, white - strip price, and other indicators changed slightly [6]. - **Industry Indicators**: The sample - point daily slaughter volume increased slightly, the weekly white - strip price decreased, the weekly piglet price increased, the sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased slightly, the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased slightly [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2601 and 2605 decreased slightly, the ICE US cotton主力 decreased, the 5 - 1 spread widened, the main - contract position decreased, the warehouse receipt increased, and the valid forecast decreased [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased slightly, the FC Index decreased, and the basis of 3128B to 01 and 05 contracts increased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories, the bonded - area inventory, and the cotton out - of - Xinjiang shipment volume increased month - on - month. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year, the yarn and fabric inventory days, and the clothing and textile exports changed to different degrees [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the south - north trade profit decreased, the import profit decreased, the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the starch - corn 01 spread remained unchanged, the Shandong starch profit decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [10]. Edible Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, the warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the inter - month spread decreased [13]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased significantly, the import cost decreased, the import profit decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [13]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis decreased, the warehouse receipt decreased slightly, and the inter - month spread increased [13]. - **Spreads**: The inter - month spreads, the bean - palm spread, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changed to different degrees [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 12 and 01 contracts increased, the basis decreased, and the 12 - 01 spread increased slightly [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, the culled - hen price increased slightly, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased [15].