中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。我们梳理出以下重点内容，一起学习领会。 部华社 ASS "数"读中央经济工作会议 更好统筹国内经济工作和 ● 国际经贸斗争 更好统筹发展和安全 ● 新华社 6525 "数"读中央经济工作会议 些个"政策取向" 要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存 量政策和增量政策集成效应,加大逆 周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经 济治理双能 "数"读中央经济工作会议 Re ar 部华社 两个"更好统筹" 要继续实施更加积极的财政政策 . 要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 . 要增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性 ● 部指航 · 坚持内需主导,建设强大国内市场 · 坚持创新驱动,加紧培育壮大新动能 · 坚持改革攻坚,增强高质量发展动力活力 · 坚持对外开放,推动多领域合作共赢 · 坚持协调发展,促进城乡融合和区域联动 · 坚持"双碳"引领,推动全面绿色转型 • 坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事 · 坚持守牢底线,积极稳妥化解重点领域风险 "数"读中央经济工作会议 五个"关键着力点" · 围绕做强国内大循环,拓展内需增长 新空间 · 围绕发展新质生产力,推动科技创新 和产业创新深度融合 · ...

据央视新闻，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要讲 话。中共中央政治局常委李强、赵乐际、王沪宁、蔡奇、丁薛祥、李希出席会议。 习近平在重要讲话中总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。李强作总结讲话，对贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲 话精神、做好明年经济工作提出要求。 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理 念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。我国经济顶压前行、向 新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。过去5年，我们 有效应对各种冲击挑战，推动党和国家事业取得新的重大成就，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举， 必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The supply is in a relatively large state, and demand has some resilience [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, light - position oscillatory trading is also advised, paying attention to rhythm and risks. Supply has an incremental expectation, and demand is transitioning from peak to off - season with some support from end - of - year impulses [2]. - For cast aluminum alloys, light - position oscillatory trading is suggested. Supply is restricted, and demand is in a slight decline with inventory accumulation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 21,935 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 130 yuan, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 185,806 lots, down 9,920 lots [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,477 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 51 yuan, down 14 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 278,854 lots, down 3,226 lots [2]. - LME aluminum's three - month quotation is 2,845.5 dollars/ton, down 41 dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 523,300 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,930 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 75 yuan, down 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 17,403 lots, up 84 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network A00 aluminum is 21,770 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of alumina spot in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots is 21,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 21,860 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 570 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 165 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 32.36 dollars/ton, down 0.22 dollars [2]. - The basis of alumina is 263 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production is 786.5 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 84.37%, down 0.92%; the utilization rate of alumina production capacity is 86.51%, down 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 18 million tons, down 7 million tons; the import volume is 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is - 19.21 million tons, down 8.67 million tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 54.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export volume is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1 million tons; the start - up rate is 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - The production of aluminum products is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 57 million tons, up 7 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 million tons, unchanged; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index is 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy is 168.20 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 13.61%, down 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.72%, up 0.10% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.06%, down 0.0347%; the call - to - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.60, down 0.0950 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the retail industry should focus on high - quality development [2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the third time, with market expectations of a 25 - basis - point cut [2]. - China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, and the economic aggregate will reach a new level [2]. - In November, the CPI decreased 0.1% month - on - month and increased 0.7% year - on - year; the PPI increased 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 2.2% year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause later. The market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, but Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for rate cuts [1]. - In December 2025, the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the rhythm of the A - share market in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the policies are officially announced, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's rate cuts, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - For various futures varieties, different trends and influencing factors are analyzed, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided, such as the long - term upward trend of precious metals and the short - term weakening trend of some energy and chemical products [12][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - **Treasury Bonds**: Generally rising, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.83%. Market liquidity is stable, but there are concerns about global liquidity tightening. The long - term Treasury bond futures price remains weak due to factors such as the suspension of 5 - year fixed deposits in banks and the new fund sales regulations [2][10]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and rapeseed oils were weak at night, while palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil exports slowed down, and production decreased. The expected inventory build - up in November may limit the upside of palm oil. The arrival of imported Australian rapeseed may suppress rapeseed oil prices [3][28]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. The supply - demand expectation has turned to a deficit due to supply disruptions [3][18]. 3.2 Daily News Focus 3.2.1 International News - Chinese and US officials met to promote Sino - US economic and trade cooperation. China welcomes more US companies to invest in China, and the US side is willing to play a bridging role [6]. 3.2.2 Domestic News - China successfully launched the Remote Sensing Satellite 47 and the Satellite Internet Low - Earth Orbit Group 15 satellites on December 9 [6]. 3.2.3 Industry News - Multiple provinces have released the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, proposing to accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model and improve the housing supply system [7][8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market was mixed. Before the policies of the two important meetings are determined, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the policies are clear, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The situation is similar to the key varieties section, with long - term bond futures remaining weak [10][11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil fell 1.31% at night. The European conflict and the US oil production forecast are the main influencing factors, and the downward trend remains [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.45% at night. The start - up rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply is entering the off - season. The demand for all - steel tires is stable. The price is expected to be volatile in a wide range [14]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall commodity market. It is expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Their inventories decreased, and the market is cautious. The focus of trading is shifting to the May contract [16]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver reached a new high, and gold fluctuated slightly. Weak employment data strengthened the expectation of a rate cut in December. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged [17]. - **Copper**: Similar to the key varieties section, the price closed lower at night, with tight concentrate supply and a potential supply - demand deficit [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower. The concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [19]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fell 0.7% at night. Due to the approaching Fed meeting and uncertainty about future rate - cut paths, the price corrected. In the long term, it is supported by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand situation is complex. In the short term, the supply is affected by production resumption, and the price is risky to chase up. In the long term, it can be considered from a bullish perspective after a correction [21][22]. 3.3.4 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session trading was volatile. Steel mill profits are low, and iron - water production may decrease, which is negative for the demand for coking coal and coke. However, strong policy expectations in December may provide upward momentum [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price slightly declined. Shipping increased slightly, and port inventories increased slightly. Steel mills' profitability is low, and they will continue to purchase on demand. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuated. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but macro - expectations are positive, so there is some short - term upward momentum, but the medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated, and US soybean exports are slow. The domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, putting pressure on prices [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key varieties section, soybean and rapeseed oils were weak, and palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil inventory build - up and the arrival of Australian rapeseed are the main influencing factors [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures were volatile and are expected to be weak in the short term. International and domestic factors such as Brazilian sugar production and Chinese sugar supply affect the price [29]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures were volatile and are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand and macro - sentiment support the price, but there is also hedging pressure [30]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 1.17%. The demand in mid - December is okay, and the price is expected to be volatile. The 04 contract may decline due to supply - surplus and potential resumption of Red Sea shipping [31].

龚正指出，做好经济工作首先要主动把握时与势、深刻洞察危与机。当前外部环境仍在深刻复杂变 化，上海经济长期向好的基本趋势仍在延续，支撑高质量发展的积极因素加快累积。我们既要增强忧患 意识，勇于应对新挑战，更要保持战略定力，着力把握新机遇，围绕推动高质量发展这个首要任务和构 建新发展格局这个战略任务，集中力量做好自己的事，努力取得更多实实在在的工作成效。 龚正指出，明年是实施"十五五"规划的开局之年。开局关乎全局，起步决定走势。要进一步提升稳 增长机制效能，用好经济运行调度等机制，做好提前预判和应对预案，采取更加有力有效举措，及时处 理好各种新情况、新问题。要进一步拓展内需市场空间，做强国内大循环，更加注重增加优质供给、扩 大服务消费和"投资于人"，引导企业开发更多优质新产品新服务，培育更多消费新增长点，在保障群众 基本服务需求的同时促进发展型消费、高品质服务消费。要进一步增强创新发展动能，大力发展新质生 产力，推动科技创新与产业创新深度融合，加紧攻关突破，加强平台赋能，加快集群建设，持续提升产 业韧性和竞争力。要进一步释放改革开放红利，增强高质量发展的动力活力，力争更多改革先行先试， 强化改革系统集成，放大改革 ...

Industry Overview - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference was held in Beijing on September 9-10, where the Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of the retail sector in fostering a complete domestic demand system and strengthening the domestic circulation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The retail industry in China is undergoing a critical transformation from scale expansion to quality enhancement, focusing on efficiency improvement through technology, rebuilding trust through quality, and leading responsibility through green initiatives [1] - The market size is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan by 2025, with a steady growth rate of 5-8% over the next five years, highlighting trends such as deep integration of online and offline channels, accelerated digital transformation, clear consumer segmentation, and emphasis on experiential value [1] Company Insights - Relevant A-share concept stocks mentioned include Guoguang Chain and Ningbo Zhongbai [2]

据新华社，12月9日，国务院总理李强在北京分别会见来华出席"1+10"对话会的世界 银行行长彭安杰、 国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃和联合国贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘。 李强表示，近年来，受地缘 政治动荡加剧、国际经贸限制措施增多等影响，全球贸易投资走势低迷，产业链供应链碎片化风险上 升，很大程度拖累了世界经济增长。在这样的形势下，中国经济稳健前行，始终坚持以自身所能，为世 界经济注入确定性、稳定性。"十五五"时期，中国经济将持续向好。我们将坚持扩大内需这个战略基 点，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠性。我们将以智能化、 绿色化、融合化为方向，推进建设现代化产业体系，并同更多国家加强产业对接合作，推动全球产业链 供应链不断提质增效。我们将实施更加积极的宏观政策，从市场关切出发，更好发挥财政政策、货币政 策作用，保持经济增长在合理区间。我们将继续向世界开放自身超大规模市场，同各国分享发展机遇， 并通过加强对话沟通妥处经贸摩擦，更好实现互利共赢。 李强指出，中方坚定支持以联合国为核心的 国际体系，支持各国际经济组织工作，愿推动各方一道落实四大全球倡议，践行真正的多边主义，推进 平等 ...

中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 中央党校（国家行政学院）中国式现代化研究中心主任、一级教授张占斌 12月9日，由《中国经营报》主办的"2025中国企业竞争力年会"在北京隆重举行，中央党校（国家行政 学院）中国式现代化研究中心主任、一级教授张占斌在会上发布"着眼全局，做强国内大循环"主题演 讲。 张占斌指出，做强国内大循环成为新历史条件下的重要战略性选择。国内大循环存在部分卡点、堵点， 应采取"破壁垒、通要素，构建全国统一大市场""稳就业、增收入，筑牢消费根基"等措施，助力国内大 循环推进。 我国做强国内大循环具备多重优势 为何要做强国内大循环？张占斌表示，改革开放后，我国曾实施"大进大出、两头在外" 的经济发展战 略，大量产品与服务进入国际市场，在此过程中逐步融入全球化进程，直至加入WTO，实现了从站起 来、富起来到向强起来的迈进。 张占斌指出，2008年美国金融危机后，世界经济格局与政治格局发生深刻变革。危机前，我国经济已保 持近30年的两位数增长，而危机后迅速过渡至个位数增长。对此，社会各界认知存在差异，部分观点仍 主张通过粗放增长、加大资源要素投入维持经济增速，但这种模式长期来看不可持续，使可持续发展面 临 ...

Economic Outlook - The meeting provided a clear and coherent assessment of the international situation, indicating a readiness to respond, while emphasizing qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth for the domestic economy[1] - The meeting introduced the concept of "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" as a work guideline, reflecting a focus on sustainable and high-quality development[1] - The emphasis on "domestic demand as the main driver" and "optimizing supply" aims to strengthen the endogenous momentum and reliability of the domestic circulation[1] Risk Management - The focus of risk prevention has shifted from "stabilizing the stock and real estate markets" to "doing practical work," moving from "stabilizing expectations" to "stabilizing reality"[1] - The meeting released numerous positive signals within a limited scope, suggesting a promising start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and broad growth potential for Chinese assets[1] Policy Adjustments - The policy tone has shifted from "promoting stability through progress" to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," indicating a greater emphasis on the quality and sustainability of development[1] - The meeting highlighted the need for "cross-cycle" adjustments in macroeconomic governance, reflecting concerns about enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic management[1] Domestic Demand and Supply - The meeting's first mention of "domestic demand as the main driver" and "optimizing supply" signifies a strategic shift towards enhancing domestic demand and improving supply quality[1] - The focus on service consumption as a new engine for expanding domestic demand, particularly in sectors like childcare, education, and healthcare, is expected to drive future growth[1] Market Stability - The meeting did not mention stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, instead emphasizing practical measures to address real economic issues, indicating a shift towards tangible outcomes[1] - The emphasis on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" reflects a more grounded approach to economic stability compared to previous years[1]

宏 观 研 究 中央政治局会议学习理解 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 2025 年 12 月 08 日 实现"十五五"良好开局 —— 12 月中央政治局会议学习理解 事件：12 月 8 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共产党 领导全面依法治国工作条例》。 政治局会议在基调上有何亮点？统筹经济工作和经贸斗争、重视政策效果和经济增长 会议重提 2025 年 4 月政治局会议首提的"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，凸显对 外部环境不确定性的关注与内部发展稳定性的重视。这一表述在 2024 年 12 月会议"更好 ...