7月15日，国家统计局公布经济"半年报"。从各项数据来看，中国经济仍顶压前行、稳定运行。初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格 计算，同比增长5.3%。 今年以来，大家都有所感受，国际环境复杂多变、国际经贸秩序遭受重创，不稳定性、不确定性增加。在这样的背景下，这份成绩单的"含金量"不言而 喻。 第一个字，"进"。以新质生产力为例，我们知道，新质生产力是推动高质量发展的内在要求和重要着力点。从上半年情况来看，新质生产力继续在加快培 育和成长，其中一个突出表现就是创新成果不断涌现。今年以来，从DeepSeek大模型到机器人马拉松赛，从航空航天到无人驾驶，引起国内外广泛关 注。更重要的是，这些创新成果并非偶然，而源于技术创新与产业创新融合发展力度加大。目前，数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重达到10%左右，上 半年高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%，可见新动能正在加快积聚。 第二个字，"稳"。经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变，只有中国经济"稳"的基础更加牢固，"进"的势头才更加明显。上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，其中一季度是 5.4%，二季度是5.2%，上半年的增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant achievements of China over the past five years, highlighting economic stability, improved efficiency, and enhanced living standards [2][3] - China's total economic growth exceeded 35 trillion, equivalent to recreating an economy the size of the Yangtze River Delta, with an average growth rate of 5.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - Research and development investment has increased by nearly 50% compared to five years ago, with R&D expenditure accounting for 2.68% of GDP, showcasing China's commitment to innovation [2][3] Group 2 - The business environment has improved significantly, with the number of private enterprises increasing to over 58 million, representing a growth of over 40% since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The government has streamlined foreign investment regulations, reducing the negative list for foreign access to only 29 items, thus enhancing the openness of the economy [2] - The establishment of the world's largest healthcare, education, and social security systems has improved the quality of life for citizens, with increasing life expectancy and better access to essential services [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move to counter external risks and ensure stable economic growth in China [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Circulation and Economic Growth - The State Council meeting highlighted the need to enhance domestic circulation to promote stable and sustainable economic development, especially in light of increasing external challenges [1]. - The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, indicating that domestic consumption is the main driver of economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment Trends - In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5458 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in sales following the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year, but showed a decline of 0.12% month-on-month in June, indicating a potential slowdown in investment activities [4]. Group 3: Policy Measures to Boost Consumption - The government plans to implement specific measures to boost consumption, including optimizing the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, which has already seen sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [4][5]. - The expansion of the "old-for-new" policy to include more product categories is expected to create new consumption growth points and support high-quality, green, and intelligent products [5]. Group 4: Service Consumption Potential - Service retail sales grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half, with significant growth in sectors like leisure, transportation, and personalized consumption [7][8]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption by addressing key issues and increasing the supply of diverse services related to daily life, such as dining, healthcare, and education [8]. Group 5: Future Policy Directions - Analysts suggest that the government may introduce new measures to stimulate consumption, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and increasing support for the "old-for-new" policy [8]. - The overall low government debt level and low inflation provide ample room for policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the macroeconomic environment [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The hot - rolled coil production remains at a relatively high level, the terminal demand has strong resilience, the inventory decreases while the apparent demand increases. Coupled with the positive policy expectations in the macro - aspect, it supports the hot - rolled coil futures to stop falling and rebound. Technically, for the HC2510 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the green column turns red. The operation suggestion is short - term long - biased trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,292 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; HC main contract position is 1,610,257 lots, up 60,284 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net position is - 14,016 lots, up 7,882 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 62,501 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 159 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Wuhan is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, 30 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively; in Tianjin, it is 3,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis is 38 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 60 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 769 yuan/wet ton, up 13 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 0 yuan/ton, down 2,210 yuan; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 0 yuan/ton, down 2,970 yuan [2]. - Domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,765.89 tons, down 112.51 tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 59.77 tons, down 1.94 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory is 637.97 tons, up 0.42 tons; Hebei billet inventory is 103.62 tons, up 6.09 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production is 321.14 tons, down 2 tons; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 82.04%, down 0.51% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 77.31 tons, down 0.5 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 265.6 tons, down 2.15 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel production is 8,318 tons, down 336 tons; steel net export volume is 920.8 tons, down 89.2 tons [2]. - Automobile production is 2.7941 million vehicles, up 0.1456 million vehicles; automobile sales is 2.9045 million vehicles, up 0.2181 million vehicles [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Air - conditioner production is 2,838.31 million units, down 109.69 million units; household refrigerator production is 904.74 million units, up 53.74 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production is 950.79 million units, up 9.59 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 17, Mysteel reported that the actual hot - rolled coil production was 321.14 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2 tons; the steel mill inventory was 77.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 tons; the social inventory was 265.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15 tons; the total inventory was 342.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons; the apparent demand was 323.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 tons [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 0.571 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 11.473 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11% [2].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/7/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) +27↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 3,133.00 | | 2126876 | -10181↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 13799 | +29622↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | -2↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 94600 | -2089↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 159 | +12↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,270.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,354 | +21↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,320.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,180.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting in Henan aims to further integrate and serve the national unified market construction, emphasizing the importance of this initiative for high-quality development and the new development pattern [2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The meeting focused on the need to deeply understand and implement the spirit of Xi Jinping's important speech during his visit to Henan [2]. - The provincial government is tasked with ensuring the effective execution of the "five unifications and one openness" basic requirements to enhance domestic and international dual circulation [3]. Group 2: Market Infrastructure and Regulation - There is a call to unify market infrastructure and strengthen both hard and soft connections, particularly in modern commercial circulation systems, especially in rural areas [3]. - The government is urged to standardize regulatory practices and enhance legal, credit, and smart supervision to improve market regulation [3]. Group 3: Economic Development Actions - The meeting outlined several action plans, including market expansion to stimulate consumption and investment, and infrastructure connectivity to eliminate logistical bottlenecks [4]. - Specific initiatives include enhancing agricultural production capacity, optimizing the business environment, and improving the efficiency of resource allocation across various markets [4].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable economic growth, focusing on key action points to boost consumption and optimize policies [2][3] - It was highlighted that the government should systematically eliminate unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending and enhance the supply of diverse products to meet increasing consumer demand [2] - The meeting called for improved policy precision and operability, as well as enhanced inter-departmental collaboration to address bottlenecks in domestic circulation [2][3] Group 2 - The importance of audit rectification was underscored as a crucial aspect of enhancing government credibility and execution, with a focus on holding audited units accountable for timely corrections [3] - The meeting addressed the need for high-quality development in the new energy vehicle industry, aiming to regulate irrational competition through comprehensive measures and industry self-discipline [3] - A draft decision to amend the "Regulations on the Entry and Exit Administration of Foreigners" was approved during the meeting [3]

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Chinese government emphasizes boosting domestic consumption as a key economic task for 2025, addressing unreasonable restrictions and optimizing trade-in policies[2] - Concerns arise over the effectiveness of consumption policies due to recent retail sales data falling short of expectations, prompting government action to stabilize market confidence[2] Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump indicates potential drug tariffs by the end of July, with a unified 10% tariff possibly affecting 150 countries[3] - Ongoing trade negotiations with India may lead to agreements before August 1, highlighting trade policy as a significant uncertainty for global markets[3] Technological Advancements and Investments - AI's next wave is expected to focus on robotic systems, enhancing human-machine collaboration in manufacturing over the next decade[4] - Meta plans to invest several hundred billion dollars in AI, aiming to lead in the deployment of large-scale AI infrastructure[4] Energy Sector Insights - National power load in China reaches a record high of 1.506 billion kilowatts, reflecting a 0.55 million kilowatt increase from last year, indicating strong energy demand[4] - The growth in renewable energy generation capacity, particularly in wind and solar, is anticipated to continue at a rapid pace[4] Market Performance Metrics - The latest 10-year government bond yield stands at 1.662%, with a slight change of 0.13 basis points[6] - The DR007 rate is reported at 1.529%, showing a decrease of 4.05 basis points[6] Stock Market Trends - Recent data shows a market turnover of 146.17 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.26%[15] - The financing balance as of July 15, 2025, is reported at 187.73 billion yuan, indicating market liquidity trends[15] Industry Performance Highlights - The top three performing sectors are social services, automotive, and pharmaceutical biotechnology, reflecting current investment interests[18] - Net capital inflows are highest in light manufacturing, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors, indicating investor confidence in these areas[20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions in U.S.-China relations[28]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable and sustainable economic growth [1] - The meeting proposed specific measures such as removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending, expanding investment in emerging service industries, and optimizing the old-for-new policy for consumer goods [1][3] - The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [2] Group 2 - The old-for-new policy for consumer goods is identified as a key measure to expand domestic demand, with sales related to this policy exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [3][4] - The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new policy in July, focusing on timely and balanced implementation [3] - Service consumption is highlighted as an important area for tapping into consumption potential, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [5] Group 3 - The State Council calls for targeted actions to enhance policy precision and operability, aiming to address bottlenecks in domestic circulation [6] - There is potential for expanding the scope of the old-for-new policy to include more categories and support high-quality, green, and intelligent products [4][6] - The government has ample policy space to stimulate domestic demand, given its relatively low debt levels and inflation rates compared to other major economies [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].