指数回来了，钱却没回来 昨天市场出现了一个值得玩味的现象： 虽然三大指数最终收红，但微盘股却领跌全市场，明明指数是涨的，为什么自己反而亏了大钱？ 这种指数与个股表现背离的情况，今天我来给大家好好分析一下。 文末有重要干货提示，千万不要错过！ 一，微盘股领跌 表面上看，微盘股的下跌可以归因于监管边际趋严、缺乏热点题材等短期因素。 但究其根本，是市场内部的杠杆水平和真实赚钱效应之间的扭曲程度已经达到了一个极点。 过去一段时间，部分微盘股凭借资金推动和概念炒作积累了过高涨幅，而随着市场回归理性，均值回归的规律开始发挥作用。 值得庆幸的是，昨天下午两点半的那波强力拉升，避免了市场重演去年12月17日的单边下跌剧情，这显示出市场仍具备一定的自我修复能力。 二，指数涨了，钱却亏了 这种指数与个股分化的现象给我们一个重要启示： 单纯盯着指数涨跌来判断市场好坏是远远不够的。 即便指数上涨，如果选错了板块和个股，依然可能面临亏损。 这就是为什么专业投资者更关注机构资金的动向——因为机构往往能更早感知市场风向的变化。 机构掌握着股价的定价权，对于市场中稀有的有价值的信息能够提前掌握并分析。 当前市场正处于一个关键转折期，前期涨幅 ...

Economic Growth - The domestic economic growth momentum is steadily improving, with the Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remaining positive and Index B continuing to rise[1] - Investment sector sentiment is improving, while consumer and real estate sectors show little change; investment performance is relatively strong[1] - Seasonal comparison indicates that Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly after the Spring Festival, with this week's standardized increase at 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Asset Prices and Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; a mean reversion suggests that the ten-year government bond yield is expected to rise and the Shanghai Composite Index to fall in the upcoming week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of March 21, 2025, is 2.47%, while the actual yield is 1.87%, indicating a deviation of 61 basis points[18] - The predicted Shanghai Composite Index for the same week is 3,174.98, lower than the actual value of 3,411.22[19] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices have both slightly decreased, with March CPI food expected to be -1.0%, non-food at -0.1%, and overall CPI at -0.3%[2] - The domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain flat month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to -2.1%[2]

Core Viewpoint - The current dividend strategy shows significant bottom characteristics, indicating potential recovery momentum in the market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Quantitative Indicators - The dividend index has exhibited a rare "negative return - high volatility" feature over the past three months, deviating significantly from its long-term central distribution [1][3]. - As of March 7, the excess return of the dividend index compared to the CSI 300 index has dropped to -7%, with an excess volatility of 12%, suggesting a suitable window for contrarian investors [3]. - The dividend ETF is in a state of reduced net subscriptions, typically corresponding to a bottoming phase for the strategy, with net subscription volume decreasing to approximately 0.3 million yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Long-term Value of Dividend Strategy - The dividend strategy has high returns, low volatility, and low drawdown characteristics, with an annualized return of 14.14% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.64 from January 2006 to February 2025, making it the highest among various style indices [2]. - The dividend strategy remains an attractive allocation direction due to strengthened dividend policies, a low risk-free yield environment, and long-term capital inflow policies [2]. Group 3: Technical Indicators - The current volume indicator for the dividend style has fallen below the warning line (0.8), triggering a buy signal historically associated with significant rebounds in excess returns [4]. - The market turnover ratio for the dividend index has dropped below 5%, indicating a "cooling" phase in trading volume over the past five years, which suggests a safety margin for allocation [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity in the market has been tight since the beginning of the year, with short-term interest rates rising without immediate transmission to long-term rates due to several factors, including increased demand for long-term bonds and changing market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Initial Conditions for Short-Term to Long-Term Rate Transmission - The initial lack of transmission from short-term to long-term interest rates is attributed to three main factors: increased demand for long-term bonds due to the "opening red" period and deposit self-discipline, heightened concerns over tariffs leading to increased risk premiums, and a stronger "substitution effect" of long-term bonds over short-term bonds [4][5][6]. Group 2: Recent Developments in Rate Transmission - Since February 6, the pressure from short-term rates has begun to transmit to long-term rates, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.60% to 1.76%. This change is driven by three mechanisms: a decrease in the pulse demand for long-term bonds, a marginal correction in interest rate cut expectations, and an increase in the opportunity cost of long-term bond investments [8][9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Long-Term Bond Yields - The tightening liquidity environment may lead to a return to a more stable long-term bond yield, with expectations that the liquidity environment will shift back to a more accommodative stance. The future trajectory will depend on the extent of fiscal stimulus and the strength of economic recovery [12].