A股复盘 | 听特朗普的 / 2025.05.12 高盛花旗误我啊！说什么谈完降一半！结果中美双方降了115%，最后： 美对中加征20%（芬太尼）+10%的关税！ 中对美加征10%的关税！ 群友说，载入史册的谈判成果！ 说好的持久战呢？说好的至少谈半年呢？ 说好的CCTV-6把《纽约我爱你》换成《欢迎到南方》了？ 说好的祖训呢？ 是我太悲观了，太没有格局了，直接被洗出去了！ 抒发完情绪后，来点正宗的点评。 中金表示，双方从之前几乎相当于"贸易禁运"的非理性水平暂缓或调降至一个可 以"贸易"的水平为起点再谈，是一个现实需要下的必然。 从市场角度，美股和港股都已经修复到4月2日"对等关税"前水平，反映了风险溢 价的修复。 短期的暂缓也意味着财政大举发力的必要性下降。 建议博弈弹性的话在出口链和互联网成长，但是后者更为明确，但整体上也不要 完全打消所有风险波动的可能。 互联网科技成长与分红轮动依然是一个整体策 略。低迷的时候更积极介入，亢奋的时候适度锁定利润，同时抓准结构性方向主 线。 关税减免后，出口链有哪些补涨机会？ 兴业证券通过对比最新政策和原来关税情况下各出口链行业净利润增速的受损幅 度，关税减免后净利润受 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent meetings have played a crucial role in stabilizing the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index continuing to progress steadily [1] - There are positive developments regarding ceasefire announcements between India and Pakistan, as well as potential progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which may benefit market sentiment [1] - The key focus is on the US-China talks, which lasted for 8 hours on May 10, indicating a shift towards resolving differences, with constructive progress expected [1] Group 2: Company Performance - For 2024, GDS Holdings Limited (万国数据-SW) is projected to achieve revenue of 10.322 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and an adjusted EBITDA of 4.876 billion yuan, up 3% [3] - The company’s domestic operational area reached 613,583 square meters by the end of Q4 2024, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth, with a cabinet utilization rate of 73.8% [3] - GDS's international business, DayOne, has signed contracts totaling 467 MW, with an operational scale of 121 MW, generating revenue of 1.73 million USD and adjusted EBITDA of 0.45 million USD in 2024 [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - Chinese construction companies are increasingly competitive in the international market, with several state-owned enterprises ranking among the top 10 in the ENR "Global Top 250 International Contractors" for 2024 [5] - The demand for construction projects along the Belt and Road Initiative is strong, with significant projects like the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway and China-Europe Railway Express enhancing infrastructure in participating countries [6] - The international engineering business is experiencing better conditions than the domestic market, with a notable increase in new contracts signed overseas by major Chinese construction firms [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the rare earth ETF fund is experiencing significant liquidity and growth, with a recent trading volume of 41.64 million yuan and a one-year average daily trading volume of 42.51 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [2] - The rare earth ETF fund's latest scale reached 1.746 billion yuan, marking a one-month high and also ranking first among comparable funds, with a notable increase of 44 million shares in the past two weeks [2] - The fund has seen a net inflow of 29.71 million yuan recently, accumulating a total of 40.69 million yuan over the last seven trading days, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 2 - The valuation of the rare earth ETF fund, tracking the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index, shows a price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 29.43, which is in the 9.41% percentile over the past year, suggesting it is undervalued compared to 90.59% of the time in the last year [2] - The rare earth industry is expected to see improved performance in Q1 2025, with Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 429 million to 439 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11,468.78% to 11,738.45% [2] - The rare earth prices are at a cyclical bottom, with import minerals under control, leading to a more concentrated supply structure and potential price increases, especially with the anticipated mass production of humanoid robots starting in 2025 [3] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index as of April 30, 2025, include Northern Rare Earth, Wolong Electric Drive, China Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 57.42% of the index [3] - Investors can also access rare earth investment opportunities through linked funds, such as fund 011036 [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Huawei and its HarmonyOS**: Huawei's transition to HarmonyOS with the upcoming launch of Harmony computers in May 2025 [1] - **Intelligent Systems**: Companies like Huiwei Intelligent and its collaboration with Tongxin and Kirin in the operating system sector [1] - **Tianyuan Dike**: Involvement in the sales of Huawei's Ascend computing products through its subsidiary [2] - **Spring Autumn Electronics**: Business relationship with Huawei in laptop structural components [3] - **BrainCo**: Development of non-invasive brain-machine interface technology [4] - **Tesla**: Plans to produce thousands of Optimus robots by 2025 [7] - **Apple**: Legal issues regarding App Store practices and potential profit increases for local developers [9] Core Points and Arguments - **Huawei's HarmonyOS Launch**: Huawei's terminal business is fully entering the HarmonyOS era, with the first Harmony computers expected to debut in May 2025, indicating a significant shift in their product strategy [1] - **Strategic Collaborations**: Huiwei Intelligent is actively investing in open-source Harmony-related product technology development through partnerships with Tongxin and Kirin [1] - **Tianyuan Dike's Revenue Expectations**: The overall expectation for Tianyuan Dike's super fusion business is projected to exceed 1 billion yuan in 2023 [2] - **Spring Autumn Electronics' Collaboration**: The company has an ongoing business relationship with Huawei in the laptop component sector, indicating a strong partnership [3] - **BrainCo's Market Impact**: BrainCo's non-invasive brain-machine interface technology is gaining attention, with collaborations for product training and development [4] - **Tesla's Production Plans**: Tesla aims to produce thousands of robots by 2025, showcasing its commitment to robotics and automation [7] - **Apple's Legal Challenges**: A recent court ruling against Apple may lead to a 30% profit increase for local developers, highlighting the potential for increased market competition [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Price Increases in Rare Earth Elements**: Significant price increases in dysprosium and terbium in the European market, with prices rising by over 210% [8] - **R32 Refrigerant Market Trends**: Overall production of air conditioning units is increasing, with refrigerant prices rising unexpectedly [8] - **H-Acid Market Dynamics**: Tight market supply and rising prices for active dyes due to upstream cost increases [8] - **Technological Advancements in Brainwave Interaction**: Companies like Dineike are focusing on non-invasive brainwave interaction technologies, particularly in health and rehabilitation sectors [8] - **Electric Motor Production Capabilities**: Company producing electric motor cores for robots and electric vehicles, with significant production capacity [10] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the involved companies and industries.

期指全线飘红，原油系领跌商品市场 "五一"假期后的首个交易日，国内商品市场"绿肥红瘦"，涨跌不一，文华商品指数下跌0.71%，报收于 157.27点。其中，受假期国际原油价格下挫影响，原油板块承压，领跌市场。因黑色产业链终端需求预 期疲软，焦炭和硅铁价格跌幅居前。沪金价格明显反弹，但有色金属板块整体以下跌为主。农产品板 块，鸡蛋价格跌幅超2%，油脂类商品普遍收跌。此外，A股和股指市场高开高走，全面飘红。 谈及原油价格大幅下跌，中信期货研究所高级研究员何颢昀接受期货日报记者采访时表示，供应端变量 是主要推手。 "OPEC+5月会议提前于5月3日召开，会上同意6月再次增产，继续保持5月41万桶/日的账面增产幅度。 此外，会后有部分消息人士表示OPEC+7月会议有可能再次选择加速增产。市场进一步计价OPEC+增产 带来的供应宽松预期，布伦特原油一度跌破60美元/桶。"他说。 据何颢昀介绍，近期中东地缘冲突有重新激化的迹象，以色列有可能针对加沙地区发动新一轮进攻，胡 塞武装表示将打击运输美国原油的油轮。此外，特朗普上任以来一直威胁将对伊朗极限施压，美伊谈判 也被推迟。不过，目前伊朗原油出口目的地主要是中国，在当前中美 ...

今日A股迎来五月首个交易日的"开门红"，三大指数全线飘红，上证指数涨1.13%至3316.11点，时隔两周重返3300点关口；深证成指涨1.84%至 10082.34点，创阶段新高；创业板指领涨1.97%至1986.41点，成交额突破1.34万亿元，较节前放量1668亿元。市场呈现普涨格局，超4800只个股上 涨，涨停个股达141只，投资者情绪显著回暖。 盘面上看，汽车、有色、家电、化工、半导体、钢铁、电力、券商、地产等板块拉升，可控核聚变、稀土、鸿蒙概念、算力概念等活跃。 资金流向方面，主力资金全天净流入计算机、电子、机械设备等板块，净流出银行板块。具体到个股来看，岩山科技、常山北明、海南华铁获净 流入7.67亿元、5.59亿元、5.42亿元。净流出方面，鸿博股份、探路者、中欣氟材遭抛售5.52亿元、4.67亿元、3.05亿元。 高平聚能资本认为，经过四月份的回调，市场担忧情绪得到一定的释放，特别是科技自主方向。当一季报压力窗口过后，五月A股或呈现修复行 情的机会。 中信证券表示，关税战至今，全球主流风险资产价格基本都回到原点，表明"交易事实，而非预期"应该是贸易战之下应对不确定性的第一原则； 展望5月，" ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a strong opening in May, with all three major indices rising over 1%, driven by positive market sentiment and supportive domestic policies [1][3][18] Market Performance - On the first trading day after the May Day holiday, A-shares saw nearly 5,000 stocks rise, with over 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The total trading volume in the market reached approximately 1.34 trillion yuan, indicating a significant recovery in market activity [3] Influencing Factors - The rise in A-shares was attributed to easing tensions in US-China trade relations and strong domestic consumption data [3][5] - The performance of overseas markets during the holiday, particularly a notable 2.96% increase in the Nasdaq, provided additional momentum for A-shares [5][7] Sector Highlights - Key sectors that performed well included AI computing, rare earths, automotive parts, consumer electronics, and precious metals, benefiting from policy support and strong earnings [3][8] - Rare earth metal prices reached record highs following China's announcement of export controls on certain rare earth items [9] Institutional Insights - Institutions are optimistic about the technology sector, citing a reduction in overcrowding and a shift in focus towards long-term industry trends [11][13] - Historical data suggests that the technology sector, particularly high PE and TMT stocks, tends to perform well in May and June [13][18] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that May may see a stronger performance for A-shares compared to historical trends, with consumption and technology sectors likely to be the main focus for investment [18][21] - The market is expected to maintain a balanced allocation strategy to mitigate risks and achieve steady long-term growth [19][20]

Market Overview - The main indices showed positive performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.84%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.97% [1] - In terms of sector performance, the computer, communication, and comprehensive sectors led the gains, while the oil and petrochemical, coal, and agriculture sectors lagged behind [1] Concept Sector Performance - Overall, the rare earth, rare earth permanent magnet, and continuous board concepts performed relatively well, whereas the banking, pharmaceutical commercial, and FTSE Russell concepts showed weaker performance [1]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both increased by over 1% during the day, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.32% [1] - Sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, rare earths, and precious metals experienced significant gains [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock index futures fell on Monday, and the US dollar index dropped below 99.00 for the first time since April 2022 [2] - Trump hinted at a desire to lower tariffs on China, suggesting a potential agreement within a month [2] - The domestic stock market is being supported by government efforts to stabilize the market and promote healthy development in the real estate sector [5][11] Group 2: Company Developments - MP Materials has ceased exporting rare earth concentrates to China, which may lead to a tightening of domestic supply and a potential increase in overseas rare earth prices [4][12] - Tesla's production of the low-cost Model Y may be delayed until next year, with significant sales declines reported in Europe, particularly in Germany, Denmark, and Sweden, where sales fell over 50% [3] - The first quarter saw significant profit increases for several companies, including: - Cambrian Technology with a net profit of 355 million yuan, turning a profit year-on-year [16] - Zhongji Xuchuang with a net profit of 1.583 billion yuan, up 56.83% year-on-year [16] - Zhengdan Co. with a net profit of 389 million yuan, a 558.59% increase year-on-year [16] Group 3: Industry Trends - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing a recovery, driven by demand for passive components like MLCCs, with prices rising due to increased orders and low inventory levels [13] - The humanoid robot industry is gaining traction, with the first humanoid robot half-marathon held in Beijing, showcasing advancements in robotics and potential market expansion [14] - The AI sector is driving demand for passive components, with projections indicating that the demand for MLCCs in AI applications will grow at an annual rate exceeding 30% by 2030 [13]