Core Points - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suspended certain licenses allowing American companies to sell products and technology to Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), aiming to weaken China's development of the C919 passenger aircraft [2] - This action is a response to China's export controls on key rare earth minerals, which are crucial for various U.S. industries, including automotive, aerospace, and military [4] - The C919 aircraft poses a competitive threat to Boeing's 737 and Airbus's A320, as it has rapidly gained market traction and begun regular commercial operations [6] - The U.S. government is attempting to pressure China regarding rare earth exports by restricting technology related to the C919, reflecting concerns over maintaining competitive advantages in the aerospace sector [6] - The geopolitical significance of the aerospace industry is highlighted, as the success of the C919 represents China's advancements in civil aviation and enhances its influence in the global high-tech industry [6] - The U.S. strategy aims to curb China's development in high-end manufacturing sectors to maintain its global dominance [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping duties of up to 172.24% on hard gelatin capsules from China, Brazil, India, and Vietnam, indicating a strategic move against China despite its relatively smaller export volume in this category [1][5]. Group 1: Trade Measures - The anti-dumping tax rate for Shandong HERSHEY Capsules is as high as 172%, while Shanxi Jicheng Bio is only taxed at 5.4%, highlighting significant disparities in treatment [3]. - The U.S. measures not only target specific companies but also cover products exported through third parties, indicating a comprehensive approach to prevent circumvention [3]. Group 2: Strategic Intent - The imposition of these duties is seen as part of a broader strategy to decouple the pharmaceutical supply chain from China, with hard gelatin capsules being a critical component in the industry [3][5]. - The U.S. had previously initiated a countervailing duty investigation on similar products in March, suggesting a premeditated series of actions against Chinese manufacturers [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - In 2023, China's exports of hard gelatin capsules to the U.S. were only $43.6 million, significantly lower than India's $63.35 million, indicating that the U.S. is targeting China not based on volume but on the complexity and irreplaceability of its supply chain [5]. - The Chinese capsule production relies on a complete upstream and downstream supply chain, which the U.S. aims to disrupt [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The high tariffs present challenges for Chinese companies, but there are opportunities for adaptation, such as exploring emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Africa or upgrading technology to develop high-value products [5][7]. - The current crisis may serve as a catalyst for industry upgrades, emphasizing the importance of proactive change rather than passive resistance [7]. - The long-term effects of these trade measures may lead to a fragmented global supply chain, ultimately impacting consumers [7].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-27 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 间震荡，短线参与为主。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9444 | 62 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2599 | 33 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 182 353590 | -16 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) 27423 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 252 615879 ...

Group 1 - The EU is committed to reaching a mutually beneficial agreement with the US, which includes tariff exemptions on industrial goods and increased purchases of US soybeans, weapons, and liquefied natural gas [2][3] - The US is focused on addressing the trade deficit with the EU and is demanding concessions related to non-tariff barriers, which the EU finds unacceptable [2] - There are significant differences in negotiation styles between the US and the EU, with the US seeking quick agreements while the EU prefers a more methodical approach [2] Group 2 - EU officials express concerns about the uncertainty of US trade policies, which complicates strategic planning for businesses, particularly in the automotive sector [1][2] - The EU insists on the importance of mutual trade benefits and is unwilling to accept all US demands without negotiation [3] - The ongoing trade negotiations face challenges due to the US's insistence on unilateral concessions from the EU, which contradicts the EU's desire for a win-win agreement [1][2]

全球金融市场周一早盘呈现震荡走势，受美欧关税谈判进展影响，美股期货全线走高，而贵金属市场承 压。截至发稿，标普500指数期货上涨0.88%，道指期货涨0.74%，纳指期货涨幅达1.06%。现货黄金价 格下跌16美元至3347.58美元/盎司，加密货币市场表现活跃，比特币突破109337美元关口，日内涨幅近 2%。 最新消息显示，美国与欧盟已同意将关税谈判最后期限延长至7月9日。美国总统特朗普25日表示，应欧 盟请求，双方就关税问题进行了"非常愉快"的对话，并同意延长谈判期限。 这场贸易争端始于23日特朗普在社交媒体上的强硬表态。他声称欧盟成立的目的是"在贸易上占美国便 宜"，并威胁自6月1日起对欧盟商品加征50%关税，仅豁免美国本土生产商品。这一言论立即引发欧盟 方面强烈反应。 欧盟委员会执行副主席特雷莎·里贝拉24日明确表态："面对勒索，欧盟不会退缩。"她在布鲁塞尔强 调，欧盟不会接受损害欧洲企业和社会利益的条件，并指责美方的"恐吓行为不可容忍"。 德国经济与能源部长卡特琳娜·赖歇指出："关税冲突没有赢家。"德国副总理兼财政部长拉尔斯·克林拜 尔25日进一步警告，若谈判破裂，欧盟将采取"坚决果断的反制措施" ...

特朗普关税政策的变数仍在。 据高盛的最新报告，美国国际贸易法院将在未来几周内就一项初步禁令动议作出裁决，一旦法院通过禁令，特 朗普政府在4月2日公布的关税政策或存在被叫停的可能性。 高盛指出，虽然法院批准初步禁令的可能性不大，但这是市场普遍忽视的潜在利好。 与此同时，美国与贸易伙伴的关税谈判也有最新进展。据报道，日方谈判代表、日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正24 日表示，第三轮部长级关税谈判较之前"更加坦诚深入"，日美正着眼以6月七国集团（G7）峰会的领导人线下 会面为契机，敲定协议。 但美国与欧盟的关税谈判却陷入僵局。特朗普甚至威胁称，将于6月1日起对欧盟进口商品加征50%关税。对 此，德国财政部长克林拜尔紧急呼吁在欧盟与美国不断升级的贸易争端中保持克制。 关税的变数 在美国总统特朗普再次试图升级"关税战"的背景下，一则潜在的重大利好正引起市场关注。 据华尔街见闻报道， 高盛首席政治经济学家AlecPhillips在最新报告中提醒，美国国际贸易法院将在未来几周 内就一项初步禁令动议作出裁决，该禁令可能会叫停美国总统特朗普在4月2日公布的关税政策。 高盛的报告称，这项裁定最早可能在本月底前落地。 这场法律挑战的核心是 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.5% for the week[3] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.1%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.7%[3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped by 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively, amid rising trade tensions and tariff threats[3] Trading Volume and Activity - Average daily trading volume decreased to CNY 1.17 trillion, a 7% decline from the previous week[3] - Small-cap stocks accounted for 50.6% of A-share trading volume, the highest level since 2014[3] - The turnover rate for the A-share market was 1.4%, with a Z-score of 0.4, indicating a slight decrease in trading activity compared to historical averages[3] Sector Performance - The healthcare, comprehensive, and non-ferrous metals sectors led gains, while the technology sector faced the largest declines[3] - The beauty and personal care sector, which had seen five consecutive weeks of gains, experienced a pullback this week[3] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yield increasing by 8 basis points to 4.51% and the 30-year yield rising by 15 basis points to 5.04%[3] - Domestic bond yields showed narrow fluctuations, with the market reacting to changes in liquidity and economic data releases[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.8%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.5% against the dollar, closing at 7.17[3] - Gold prices surged by 4.9% to USD 3,358 per ounce, marking the largest weekly increase since April 12[3] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.2% to USD 61.8 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production reports[3]

Core Viewpoint - Apple has fallen from its long-standing position as the market leader to third place, significantly impacted by the trade policies initiated by Trump [1]. Trade Dispute Impact - The trade disputes initiated by Trump have severely affected Apple, leading to increased production costs due to tariffs on components sourced from China, which directly compresses profit margins and affects market performance [2]. - The instability in the global supply chain caused by trade tensions disrupts Apple's production plans, resulting in product supply interruptions and a failure to meet market demand, prompting consumers to turn to other brands [2]. Consumer Confidence Erosion - The unpredictability of Trump's policies has created a climate of uncertainty, making consumers more cautious about purchasing high-priced Apple products, especially during periods of heightened trade tensions [3]. - Nationalistic sentiments have led some consumers to prefer domestic brands, such as Huawei, over Apple, contributing to a decline in Apple's market share in China [3]. Rise of Competitors - As Apple faces challenges due to Trump's policies, competitors have seized the opportunity to grow, with domestic high-end brands increasing R&D investments and improving product quality [4]. - Brands like Huawei and Xiaomi have gained consumer favor through innovative products and competitive pricing, further eroding Apple's market share [4][6]. Strategic Challenges - Trump's policies have hindered Apple's global strategic initiatives, including technology collaborations that are essential for innovation, as isolation can lead to a lack of innovation capabilities [7]. - The trade disputes have also complicated Apple's efforts to expand into emerging markets, making it difficult to tap into new growth opportunities [8]. Brand Image Damage - Apple's brand image has suffered due to its association with U.S. government policies, leading to a decline in consumer goodwill and perceptions of the brand's independence and risk management capabilities [8]. - Actions perceived as aligning with U.S. policies have sparked negative sentiments among consumers in markets like China, further diminishing Apple's global brand appeal [8].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a broad decline, with the S&P 500 falling for four consecutive days and Apple facing an eight-day drop, down 3% on Friday, leading the decline among major tech companies [2][3] - Oklo, a nuclear power stock, surged by 23%, while US Steel rose by 21% amid the market turmoil [2] - Safe-haven assets saw increased demand, with gold prices rising by 2% and the dollar index hitting a new low for the month [2] - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling over $4,000 from its record high [2] Key News - Trade tensions escalated as Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, claiming the EU's primary purpose is to gain trade advantages over the US [3][8] - The US Customs reported record daily tariff revenues of $16.5 billion, indicating the financial impact of ongoing trade disputes [10] - Trump warned Apple CEO Tim Cook that Apple must manufacture in the US or face a 25% tariff, leading to a significant drop in Apple's stock price [10][13] - Analysts criticized Trump's stance, suggesting that absorbing the tariff would be less damaging to Apple than relocating production back to the US [13] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that the tariff threats are intended to accelerate negotiations with the EU, with expectations of several significant trade agreements in the coming weeks [12] Company Developments - Oracle announced plans to purchase 400,000 of Nvidia's latest GB200 chips for a total value of $40 billion, aimed at enhancing its data center capabilities [15] - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank commented on Xiaomi's recent product launch, highlighting its advancements in technology and potential market impact [17] International Relations - Japan's Prime Minister expressed a desire to eliminate additional US tariffs, indicating ongoing negotiations with the US [9] - Reports suggest that India and the US may reach a preliminary trade agreement within the next week [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean One: No clear rating [1] - Bean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bean Oil: No clear rating [1] - Palm Oil: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Meal: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆★ [1] - Corn: No clear rating [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The soybean market is affected by factors such as policy, weather, and supply. The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors but has a bullish strategy. The corn market will fluctuate. The live pig market is under supply pressure, and the egg market is bearish in the long - term [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Contents Soybeans - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate repeatedly, with local reserve soybean auctions resulting in no sales. The policy - driven trading volume is small. Imported soybeans face the pressure of large - scale arrivals from May to July, and weather will be a key factor in both domestic and overseas markets [2] - The drought - affected area of US soybeans has shrunk, with about 16% of the planting area affected as of May 20, compared to 17% the previous week and 6% last year. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal main contract continued to close higher. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant since May. There are many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and the market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3] Bean Oil and Palm Oil - The US House of Representatives has passed the 45Z amendment bill, which may increase the demand for domestic raw materials in North America, increase US soybean crushing, and reduce US soybean exports. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle overseas and faces the pressure of increased arrivals in China from May to June. The prices of bean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures contracts mainly fluctuated with small daily price changes. The sowing of Canadian rapeseed is advancing, and as of May 19, 58% of the rapeseed in Saskatchewan has been sown. The supply of oilseeds in China is expected to be abundant in the second quarter, and the strategy is still bullish [5] Corn - Corn futures rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom this week. The spot price of corn in Northeast China continued to decline slightly, and the supply in Shandong decreased. After the transfer of grain ownership, the market - circulating grain is still in the trading link. Starch enterprises have had long - term losses, with a recent decline in operating rates and a slight recovery in profits. The market will fluctuate in the next stage [6] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continued to hit new lows, and the spot price was under pressure due to the accelerated slaughter rate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs will recover, and the spot price is expected to decline, which may put downward pressure on the futures price [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs across the country generally declined, and the near - month June contract continued to hit new lows. In the short - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stop falling and stabilize during the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period. In the medium - term, the industry's production capacity is expected to increase until the end of September. In the long - term, the egg price is bearish [8]