Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold stocks continue to rise, driven by increasing gold prices and favorable market conditions, with significant gains observed in various companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shandong Gold increased by over 4%, Zhaojin Mining by 3.9%, Lingbao Gold by 3%, and several other gold companies also saw gains of over 2% [2] - The spot gold price accelerated its rise, reaching a new historical high of $4,490.88 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 71% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to traders betting on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates twice in 2026, alongside President Trump's advocacy for a looser monetary policy [1] - Geopolitical risks have further enhanced the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver [1] Group 3: Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs and other banks predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with a baseline forecast of $4,900 per ounce by 2026, indicating greater upside risks [1] - ETF investors are beginning to compete with central banks for limited physical supply of gold [1]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。铝市基本面矛盾依然有限,社库窄幅波动,表观需求并无亮眼表现。短期宏观 主导，宽松交易延续,贵金属和有色多品种创新高,沪铝跟涨为主,多头背靠40日线持有,关注前 高位置阻力。 【铸造铝合金】 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调100元至21300元。 铸造铝行业库存和交易所仓单窄幅波动, 税务调整 令部分地区成本面临上调。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金高位跟涨乏力，与沪铝价差维持千元附近。 (氧化铝) (原油) 美方人员21日在委内瑞拉附近国际水域拦截油轮并登船检查，这是不到两周时间里，美国为施压委 内瑞拉而实施拦截的第三艘油轮。乌克兰无人机在黑海港口袭击了俄罗斯船只。她缘紧张关系的持 续升级加剧了市场对原油供应中断的忧虑,原油价格反弹。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势。近期美国数据有利于降息的延续,地缘方面以色列和伊朗、美国和委内瑞拉 之间现紧张氛围。黄金周一突破前高刷新历史新高，贵金属短期趋势得到强化。国内资金是铂把多 头主力,外盘跟涨内盘为主,国内积极计价远月铂供不应求,推升内外价差,但内外盘合约月份不 匹配,价格可比 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is strengthened, which provides support for precious metals, especially silver, during the interest rate cut cycle. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver and profit protection [1]. - The domestic soda ash market is in a volatile state, with prices remaining stable but weak. New production capacity puts pressure on the market, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - The steel market is in a weak balance between supply and demand, with stable cost support, and steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - The silicon iron market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with high costs supporting the price bottom. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation [4]. - The coke market has little fundamental contradiction, and prices mainly follow the cost of coking coal. The possibility of further price cuts is small due to winter storage demand [5]. - The funds are loose, which supports the bond market. The short - term bond market should be viewed with a volatile mindset, and the evolution of the expectation of monetary policy easing should be observed [6]. - The selection of the new Fed Chairman may cause market disturbances. Gold is not recommended to be over - bullish and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [6]. - The pig market has strong supply and weak demand, especially in the southern region. Pig prices are expected to weaken after a short - term rebound [7]. - The soybean meal market is under pressure due to increased soybean supply and high inventory. The domestic futures contract is expected to oscillate in a certain range and may decline if the South American harvest is good [8]. - The palm oil market is supported by improved exports and reduced production in Malaysia. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [9]. - The copper market is driven by macro - easing expectations and tight mine supply, but the consumption end has limited support. Copper prices may be strong in the short term but are at risk of increased high - level volatility [10]. - The methanol market has high domestic production and slightly decreased downstream demand. The port inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - The plastic market has a structure of strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. 3. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: Fed officials' statements have strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is bullish for silver during the interest rate cut cycle. Attention should be paid to gold's influence [1]. - **Gold**: The selection of the new Fed Chairman may cause market disturbances. Gold is not recommended to be over - bullish and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [6]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee is set at 0, indicating extremely tight mine supply. Copper prices are driven by macro - expectations but face high - level volatility risks due to limited consumer acceptance [10]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash price is stable, with a slight decrease in production and a small increase in inventory. The market is expected to be weak in the short term due to new production capacity [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The overall cost is high, supply is decreasing due to factory shutdowns, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Coke**: The coking profit has declined but remains marginally profitable. Supply has decreased due to production restrictions, and demand has decreased seasonally. Prices follow coking coal, and further cuts are less likely [5]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is at a high level, downstream demand has slightly decreased, and port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - **Plastic**: Supply is abundant, production enterprise inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Soybean supply is increasing, and inventory is high. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures contract is expected to oscillate in a certain range and may decline if the South American harvest is good [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil exports have improved, and production has decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the market is in a seasonal off - season [9]. - **Pig**: The pig market has strong supply and weak demand, especially in the south. Prices are expected to weaken after a short - term rebound [7]. Others - **Steel**: The steel market has a weak balance between supply and demand, with stable cost support. Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The funds are loose, which supports the bond market. The short - term bond market should be viewed with a volatile mindset, and the evolution of the expectation of monetary policy easing should be observed [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including futures, stocks, and bonds. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of different assets, offering trading strategies and outlooks based on current economic and industry conditions [2][3][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Low valuation and mine - end news drive the sentiment, but the short - term reality is weak and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 124000 [2] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand expectations are weak, and the rebound space is limited. The EB02 contract is expected to oscillate in the 6300 - 6700 range in the short term [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fluctuate, and the futures rebound. Short - term trading can consider going long on the 2605 contract [4] - **Oils and Fats**: Due to the approaching Christmas holiday, they are expected to show an interval oscillation trend. Palm oil may rebound, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil have limited upward space [5] - **Silver**: Driven by funds during the holiday, it strengthens the upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips to increase the trading safety margin [7] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market rebounded, and the main contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. The current trend is expected to be interval oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [8][9][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: LPR remained unchanged, and the stock market was strong, suppressing the bond market. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation, and if participating in trading, enter and exit quickly and stop profit in time [12][13] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all rose. The market has a positive expectation for the future price of precious metals, and it is recommended to hold long positions unilaterally [15][16] 3.2.3 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The index is rising, and it is expected to show an oscillating upward pattern in the short term [18] 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 92500 - 95000 [23] - **Alumina**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2450 - 2650 yuan/ton [26] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22600 yuan/ton [29] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to continue to oscillate at a high - level interval, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [32] - **Zinc**: The TC stops falling and stabilizes, and the price oscillates. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950 [35] - **Tin**: The short - term fundamentals are still strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [40] - **Nickel**: The price is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 124000 [43] - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12300 - 13000 [46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 11.2 - 11.6 million [51] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [54] - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [56] 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: It is expected to maintain an interval oscillation, with the rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and the hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range [58] - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to maintain an interval oscillation, with the reference range of 730 - 820. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations on the 05 contract [61] - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract on dips [64] - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract on dips [67] - **Silicon Iron**: It is expected to oscillate in the 5400 - 5650 range [70] - **Manganese Silicon**: It is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to try shorting when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [73] 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the performance of the main contract around 2750 [77] - **Pigs**: The spot price is stable, and the disk is expected to have support around 11000 [79] - **Corn**: The disk may maintain a weak pattern, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy release [82] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bearish mindset [83] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic market's upward trend slows down. It is expected to oscillate in a strong - level interval [85] - **Eggs**: The supply is still loose, and it is expected to oscillate weakly this week [87] - **Oils and Fats**: They are expected to show an interval oscillation trend. Palm oil may rebound, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil have limited upward space [91] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand expectation is bearish, and the price is running weakly. Attention should be paid to the market consumption [93] - **Apples**: The demand is weak, and the rebound height is limited. It is recommended to exit long positions opportunely [94] 3.3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: It is expected to continue a relatively strong trend in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying approach [96] - **PTA**: It follows the raw material PX. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying approach [99] - **Short - fiber**: It follows the raw material, and the supply - demand expectation is weak [100] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The domestic supply is expected to increase, and the processing fee will be compressed in the short term [102] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [103] - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to oscillate in the 5300 - 5600 range [105] - **Styrene**: It is expected to oscillate in the 6300 - 6700 range in the short term [107] - **LLDPE**: It is recommended to wait and see [108] - **PP**: Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profits [109] - **Methanol**: It is recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [110] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to run weakly [112] - **PVC**: It is expected to maintain an interval arrangement and then weaken after a rebound [114] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to go short on rallies [116] - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see [117] - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate in the 15000 - 15500 range, and it is recommended to wait and see [120] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure of BR2602 around 11200 - 11300 [122]

Copper - Copper prices experienced narrow fluctuations overnight, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses [3][9] - The macroeconomic outlook shows significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts next year, while the market focuses on the new chairman's ability to maintain the Fed's policy independence [3][9] - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,650 tons to 157,750 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 4,247 tons to 423,556 tons [3][9] - Demand for copper is cautious, with downstream enterprises primarily purchasing based on immediate needs [3][9] - The strategy suggests maintaining a buy-on-dips approach but advises against excessive chasing of prices [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 2.42% to $15,260 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 2.82% to ¥122,130 per ton [4][10] - LME inventory decreased by 162 tons to 254,388 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,320 tons to 38,922 tons [4][10] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association indicated a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 [4][10] - Nickel prices saw a slight increase due to market sentiment, but caution is advised regarding actual implementation [4][10] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at ¥2,515 per ton, up 0.56% [5][11] - SHFE aluminum experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at ¥22,135 per ton, down 0.47% [5][11] - The market is facing pressure from increased shipments and the resumption of large-scale mining operations [5][11] - The aluminum price trend is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and macroeconomic sentiment [5][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at ¥8,595 per ton, down 0.52% [6][12] - Polysilicon prices also experienced a decline, with the main contract closing at ¥58,845 per ton, down 2.1% [6][12] - There are expectations of further environmental production cuts in the northwest, which may support industrial silicon prices [6][12] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 3.98% to ¥114,380 per ton, with significant increases in both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices [7][14] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 47 tons to 22,045 tons, while demand for ternary materials decreased [7][14] - The market is experiencing strong demand expectations, with downstream stocking intentions remaining relatively strong [7][14]

张尧浠：利好前景持稳、金价突破阻力预打开新牛市空间 上交易日周一(12月22日)：国际黄金强势反弹攀升收阳，如期突破新高以及趋势线阻力压制，这暗示后市的看涨空间进一步打开，将迎接看涨至5000美元 关口甚至更高的预期位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4340.19美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内低点4337.64美元，之后则持续反弹回升，欧美盘时段虽有回撤，但只有10美金左右， 幅度较小，趋势仍未上行，且一路延续到盘尾收盘，动力持稳，在触及日内高点4449.01美元，最终收于4443.55美元，日振幅111.37美元，收涨103.36美 元，涨幅2.38%。 其2025年的利好因素，关税担忧，降息预期，地缘局势等等仍然存在，并有进一步扩大的预期；所以，未来一年周期，全球经济仍面临结构性挑战，主要 央行货币政策整体偏宽松，地缘局势长期处于不稳定等等因素的支撑而仍可觊觎触及5000美元关口或更高位置。 总体而言，黄金的未来上涨将依赖于美联储的宽松步伐、地缘风险的演变以及全球经济复苏的速度。如果降息预期兑现，黄金不仅能维持当前涨幅，还可 能开启新一轮牛市。 如果美国经济明显恶化，失业率攀升，而通胀又未能大幅反弹，美联储 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is generally positive. The lower - than - expected US CPI in November boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December has a positive tone, which is expected to improve domestic consumption. The raw material supply is tight and may spread to the smelting end, with a risk of supply contraction. The current supply - demand of basic metals is relatively loose, but the future is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, while high prices restrain consumption. Long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disturbances are expected to drive up the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The long - term processing fee for copper ore is settled, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. SMM reports that the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. The CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on December 22 was at a discount to the contract. As of December 22, the copper inventory increased. The LME plans to set and implement position limits on key and related contracts from July 6, 2026. Macro factors and supply constraints support copper prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit the upside. The outlook is for copper prices to be oscillatingly strong [9][10][11]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The over - supply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. On December 22, the spot prices in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts decreased. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The cost support is weak, and the warehouse receipts digestion faces pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [11][12][13]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the average price of SMM AOO increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars changed. In November, China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year. The "aluminum for copper" standard work has been launched, and the aluminum ingot premium for Japan in Q1 2026 has increased. The macro - environment is positive, the supply is tight in the long - term, and the short - term high prices suppress demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - term and may rise in the medium - term [14][15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the prices of related products were stable or changed slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production, and the import of scrap aluminum in October increased. The cost support is strong, but the supply may be reduced due to policies, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - and medium - term [16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The inventory trends at home and abroad are different, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the spot prices in different regions were at premiums to the contract. As of December 22, the zinc inventory increased. In November, China's zinc concentrate imports increased. The macro - environment is positive, the short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short - term and decline in the long - term [19][20]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined, and the rebound space of lead prices is limited. On December 22, the prices of related products changed slightly, and the inventory decreased. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption, and the operating rate of some enterprises has weakened. The supply may increase as the maintenance of smelters ends, and the demand is weakening. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21][22]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the nickel ore RKAB, and nickel prices have rebounded. On December 22, the LME and domestic nickel inventories changed. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula and reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target. The current supply is still under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. If the RKAB plan is implemented, the surplus expectation will decline. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the rebound of nickel prices, the stainless - steel futures price has recovered. On December 22, the price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel ore production target. The cost has some support, the production may decline in December, and the inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [26][27]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply concerns and low inventory levels make tin prices oscillatingly strong. On December 22, the warehouse receipts and positions of tin increased, and the spot price rose. The supply from Myanmar has recovered, but the supply in Indonesia may be restricted in Q1 2026, and African supply is limited. The demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and industry development. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong [27][28]. Group 4: Market Monitoring - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the CITICS Futures commodity index increased by 1.10%, 1.34%, and 0.79% respectively. The PPI commodity index increased by 0.63%. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.85%. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date growth rates of the non - ferrous metal index were +0.85%, +2.42%, +5.61%, and +12.36% respectively [152][154].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of precious metals and energy commodities, noting that gold, silver, and copper have reached historical highs, while oil prices have also increased due to geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold rising over 2% and silver increasing by more than 3% [1][2]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI at 2.6%, below the anticipated 3%, which raises questions about inflation but provides room for potential interest rate cuts [2][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, supporting the expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which is bullish for precious metals [2][20]. Energy Commodities - Oil prices have seen a significant increase, with the SC night market rising by 2.01%. Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][14]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector, are influencing oil prices, although the overall trend remains uncertain [3][14]. Agricultural Products - The palm oil market is experiencing upward pressure due to Malaysia's reduction of export tax rates, although inventory levels remain high, and a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance is not expected until December [29]. - The soybean market is under pressure from slow export sales and strong production expectations in South America, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [28]. Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices have shown an upward trend, with significant market activity and a financing balance increase, indicating a potential long-term bullish trend supported by favorable policies and liquidity [11]. - The bond market is experiencing a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.845%, reflecting a mixed economic outlook and expectations of future monetary policy adjustments [12][13]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a strong upward movement, with a reported increase of 8.77% in the EC contract, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for price stability in the near future [32][33].

Group 1 - The mid-term direction of US Treasury yields is relatively clear, with a downward trend expected, although supply pressure may persist in the bond market [1][27] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience short-term volatility, influenced by overseas liquidity and seasonal factors, with limited support from southbound capital [1][22] - Gold prices have absorbed much negative sentiment after a month of consolidation, maintaining an optimistic outlook due to clear long-term fundamentals [1][33] Group 2 - The US stock market showed mixed performance, with fluctuations driven by AI narratives and economic data, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 [2][4] - The Indian stock market is in a state of low trading volume and lacks clear direction, with investors awaiting upcoming Q3 earnings and policy announcements [8][10] - Japanese stocks are under pressure due to conflicting macro policies, with the Bank of Japan's tightening measures impacting market sentiment [12][14] Group 3 - The domestic bond market is experiencing fluctuations due to weak economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts, with a focus on the impact of upcoming policies [29][30] - Oil prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, with demand concerns remaining a significant factor [36][37]

国际金银市场迎来狂欢，价格大幅攀升并再创新高。COMEX黄金期货涨幅逾2%；COMEX白银期货涨 2.37%，报69.09美元/盎司。金银价格的强势上涨，吸引了众多投资者的目光，市场交易活跃度显著提 升。 市场最为关注的当属美联储的大消息。据金十报道，美国总统特朗普可能在明年1月第一周任命新的美 联储主席。现任美联储主席鲍威尔的四年任期将于明年5月届满，特朗普此前明确表示，希望选择一位 支持增长友好型货币政策的继任者。目前，除美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼外，白宫经济顾问哈塞特以及前美 联储理事沃什也被列为潜在候选人。这一消息引发了市场对美联储未来货币政策走向的广泛猜测和讨 论。 根据CME"美联储观察"数据，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为19.9%，维持利率不变的概率为 80.1%。到明年3月，累计降息25个基点的概率为44.7%，维持利率不变的概率为47.1%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为8.2%。降息预期的变化，使得金融市场的不确定性增加，投资者在市场中的博弈也愈发 激烈。 美东时间周三（12月24日），全球金融市场风云变幻，隔夜美股全线拉升，黄金白银价格更是大幅上 扬，与此同时，美联储高层变动消息引发市场 ...