Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a downward trend on June 19, 2025, with the banking sector showing relative resilience, only declining by 0.15%, second only to the oil and petrochemical sector [1] Banking Sector Performance - Individual bank stocks showed localized activity, with notable gains from CITIC Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Jiangyin Bank, each rising over 1% [1] - The banking ETF (512800) opened lower but turned positive during the day, ultimately closing slightly down by 0.12%, continuing its strong performance throughout the year [2][3] ETF and Index Performance - The banking ETF (512800) has repeatedly set historical highs this year, with the index it tracks, the China Securities Banking Index, having increased by 11.87% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 by 12.18 and 14.2 percentage points, respectively [3][4] - The banking sector's strong performance is attributed to its status as a stable asset class, characterized by steady operations, consistent dividends, and high dividend yields, making it attractive in a volatile market [4] Fund Allocation and Future Outlook - Short-term drivers include regulatory changes encouraging public funds to increase their allocation to the banking sector, which currently has a significantly lower representation in active funds compared to its weight in the CSI 300 [5] - Analysts believe the core investment logic for the banking sector will persist, driven by its high dividend yield, potential for institutional fund inflows, and supportive policies for interest margins [5] - The current market environment is viewed as the beginning of a long-term trend, with low interest rates and the revaluation of RMB assets serving as foundational logic for this market cycle [5] Investment Opportunities - Investors looking for value in the banking sector are encouraged to consider the banking ETF (512800) and its associated funds, which provide exposure to a diversified portfolio of 42 listed banks in A-shares [6]

对话银行：高股息的中流砥柱：银行的高歌能到几时？ 20250618 摘要 银行股慢牛行情受益于多重因素：资金面方面，公募基金改革和险资增 配提供支持；基本面方面，高股息率和资产质量改善吸引投资者；超预 期因素如地方融资平台风险控制和区域银行改革带来增长潜力。 对比 A 股和 H 股五大行股息率与中国 10 年期国债利率，历史数据显示 银行股行情顶部与两者交汇相关。预计未来 10 年期国债利率可能创新 低，银行股息率或将向国债利率收敛，行情不依赖利率变化。 银行股估值提升主要归因于资产负债表韧性，包括规模稳健扩张和资产 质量压力小于预期。市场对财务数据真实性存疑，但多项指标改善显示 实际情况好于预期。 招商银行财务数据表现卓越，各项指标勾稽关系印证其资产质量和财务 稳健性。过去几年机构投资者倾向于从景气度框架选股，导致对银行板 块配置较低。 银行股行情持续性核心因素包括高股息确定性及资产负债表韧性。被动 化资金趋势也是重要原因，国家队及沪深 300ETF 扩容导致大量资金流 入银行。 Q&A 您如何判断银行股行情的持续性？有哪些因素可能推动银行股继续上涨？ 背后的资金面、基本面及潜在超预期因素共同构成了支撑其持 ...

油气和炼化及贸易板块 2024 和 2025Q1 综 述：油气板块仍将保持较高景气度，炼化 及贸易板块业绩承压期待改善 2025 年 6 月 19 日 看好/维持 石油石化 行业报告 分析师 莫文娟 电话：010-66555574 邮箱：mowj@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480524070001 投资摘要： 2024 年海外通胀有所减缓，国内经济有所修复，从而间接支撑大宗商品需求。2024 年以来，美国 CPI 同 比上涨幅度逐步下降，截至年底低于 3%。2025 年第一季度美国通胀压力继续减缓，始终维持在 3%以下， 2024 年国内制造业 PMI 为 49.78，2025 年 1 月至 4 月，国内制造业 PMI 分别为 49.1，50.2，50.5，49.0， 围绕荣枯线 50 上下波动，有助于缓解估值压力并稳定市场预期，从而间接支撑大宗商品（如原油）需求。 2024 年油价宽幅震荡，同比下降；2025 年一季度，Brent 现货均价环比上涨。2024 年 1-12 月，Brent 原油现货均价整体价格在 69.19-91.17 美元/桶宽幅震荡，全年来看油价中枢小幅下跌，月度均价为 ...

截至2025年6月19日 13:09，沪深300红利低波动指数下跌0.72%。成分股方面涨跌互现，杭州银行领涨0.60%，中国银行上涨0.36%，江苏银行上涨0.34%；公 牛集团领跌，广发证券、民生银行跟跌。300红利低波ETF(515300)下修调整。 流动性方面，300红利低波ETF盘中换手1.22%，成交6647.72万元。拉长时间看，截至6月18日，300红利低波ETF近1周日均成交2.08亿元。规模方面，300红 利低波ETF最新规模达54.62亿元。 截至6月18日，300红利低波ETF近5年净值上涨81.64%，指数股票型基金排名35/987，居于前3.55%。从收益能力看，截至2025年6月18日，300红利低波ETF 自成立以来，最高单月回报为13.89%，最长连涨月数为5个月，最长连涨涨幅为14.56%，上涨月份平均收益率为3.75%。 数据显示，截至2025年5月30日，沪深300红利低波动指数前十大权重股分别为中国神华、格力电器、大秦铁路、中国石化、宝钢股份、宁沪高速、双汇发 展、海螺水泥、中国电信、华域汽车，前十大权重股合计占比36.97%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 ...

值得注意的是，易方达基金旗下的恒生红利低波ETF（159545）、红利低波动ETF（563020）、红利价 值ETF（563700）三只产品均按季度进行分红评价、满足条件后可分红，三只产品的分红评价月份合计 覆盖全年各月，同时持有三只产品有机会每个月获得现金分红。此外，易方达中证港股通高股息投资指 数基金（A/C：023389/023390）每月进行分红评价，加入投资组合有助于进一步增加分红金额和稳定 性。 每经记者｜叶峰 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 港股早盘震荡调整，近期备受投资者关注的恒生港股通高股息低波动指数也跟随回调。据Wind数据统 计，截至6月18日，跟踪上述指数的恒生红利低波ETF（159545）已连续25个交易日获资金加仓，最新 规模突破20亿元，连续创下新高。 而除了港股外，A股的高股息配置机遇同样被市场所关注。跟踪中证红利低波动指数的红利低波动ETF （563020）最新规模约20亿元，较年初几乎翻倍。 有券商表示，在海内外投资者对中国资产关注上升、港股扩容带来趋势性增配环境下，市场大幅下行风 险相对可控。此外，长期资金入市在持续推进，公募基金和保险资金2025年入市规模有望达4.2万亿元 左右。由 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance and growth of the Robot ETF (562500), which has seen significant inflows and trading activity, indicating a robust market interest in robotics investments [1][2] - As of the latest data, the Robot ETF has a net inflow of 29.45 million yuan, with a total of 380 million yuan attracted over the past 10 trading days, leading among comparable funds [1] - The Robot ETF's current scale is 12.997 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.86 billion yuan year-to-date, which is the highest growth among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The mechanical industry is expected to see concentrated hotspots, with the sector ranking 6th in A-share performance in the first half of the year, and 40 out of the top 100 stocks being related to robotics [2] - The industry is facing weak domestic demand but is increasingly focusing on international markets, with hard technology expected to drive growth in the second half of the year, particularly in embodied intelligence and controllable nuclear fusion [2] - The Robot ETF is the only robot-themed ETF in the market with a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, covering various segments such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and service robots, providing investors with a comprehensive investment option in the robotics supply chain [2]

Group 1 - The recent geopolitical uncertainties have suppressed global risk appetite, leading to fluctuating market sentiment in the short term. Defensive assets, particularly Hong Kong dividend stocks, have become a focus for capital allocation [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) has seen continuous net inflows for 35 trading days since April 24, 2025, reaching new highs in both shares and scale. As of June 17, the total shares and scale were 1.479 billion and 2.419 billion CNY, respectively, with a single-day net inflow of 93 million CNY, marking a year-to-date high [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) offers a high dividend yield of 7.85%, significantly higher than mainstream A-share dividend indices, indicating a strong high-dividend advantage. The latest price-to-book ratio is only 0.65, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) is the first ETF to invest in the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index through the QDII model, providing a more favorable tax structure compared to traditional channels, which may enhance investor experience [1] - On May 23, 2025, the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) and its linked funds announced an adjustment to their income distribution principles, allowing for up to 12 distributions per year based on fund performance [2] - Huatai-PineBridge Fund has over 18 years of experience in index investment and has established a comprehensive "dividend family" in the dividend-themed ETF sector, managing over 40.2 billion CNY in dividend-themed ETFs as of June 17 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector, particularly the leading bank ETF (512820), is experiencing a strong performance driven by high dividend yields and low valuations, making it an attractive investment opportunity [5][10][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 17, the A-share market showed mixed trends, with the bank ETF (512820) experiencing a slight decline of 0.2% after reaching a historical high during the day [1]. - The bank ETF (512820) has attracted over 25 million yuan in capital inflow over the past three days, indicating strong investor interest in high-dividend sectors [1]. - The index of the bank ETF (512820) has seen a 15.33% increase over the past six months, outperforming the CSI 300 by 16.51% [5]. Group 2: Fundraising and Capital Injections - Recently, major banks like the Bank of Communications and Bank of China announced successful A-share stock issuances, raising 120 billion yuan and 165 billion yuan respectively, contributing to a total of 520 billion yuan in capital injections for the four major state-owned banks [5]. - This capital injection is expected to enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of state-owned banks, thereby improving their ability to support the real economy [5]. Group 3: Investment Appeal - The banking sector is characterized by high dividend yields and low valuations, making it more attractive compared to other industries [7][10]. - The current price-to-book ratio (PB) of the bank ETF (512820) is 0.68, indicating a significant undervaluation [12]. - The latest dividend yield for the bank ETF (512820) is 5.4%, which is competitive in the market [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is strong momentum for long-term capital inflows into the banking sector from insurance funds, state-owned enterprises, and public funds, which is expected to support the valuation of bank stocks [8][15]. - The banking sector's fundamentals remain robust, with stable operations and sustainable dividends, which are likely to strengthen its high dividend characteristics [9][15].

大金融配置机会展望 20250616 摘要 房地产市场数据走弱，房价低于去年 9 月水平，止跌回稳政策面临压力， 政策边际宽松必要性提高，国常会或将更大力度推动市场稳定。 短期内房地产政策放松力度预计有限，宏观层面压力不显著，5 月销售 面积同比小幅下降，新房备案基本持平，7 月或有宽松措施，但预期不 宜过高。 地产股跌至较低位置，可逢低配置，关注库存压力低、减值充分、区域 布局好且产品端有优势的公司，如滨江、建发和绿城，以及稳定现金流 或潜在高股息标的，如华润置地。 商业地产公司如华润置地 PB 为 0.6 倍左右，本质是高股息逻辑，开发 业务拖累小，周转效率高，值得战略性配置。物业公司如贝壳及龙头央 国企物管公司受益于二手市场成交量稳定，具长线配置价值。 市场对公司自由现金流和账面现金估值不足，未来资产交易扩散将受重 视。政策有必要进一步宽松以维持市场稳定，但短期政策宽松的紧迫性 和力度保持中性判断。 Q&A 如何看待当前房地产市场的基本面情况及政策边际宽松的必要性？ 当前房地产市场的基本面情况显示出明显的恶化迹象。统计数据显示，房价环 比跌幅在显著扩大，尤其是从 4 月份开始，预计 6 月份单月跌幅可能 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun's team has released a series of reports indicating that the mid-term investment value of Chinese private enterprises has improved due to macroeconomic, policy, and micro factors [1] - The research team has identified the "Top Ten Private Enterprises" in China, which includes Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Ctrip, and Anta, similar to the "Big Seven" in the US stock market [1] - Goldman Sachs expects these "Top Ten Private Enterprises" to expand their dominance in the Chinese stock market, with all stocks rated as "Buy" by analysts [1] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the "Top Ten Private Enterprises" is estimated at $1.6 trillion, accounting for 42% of the MSCI China Index weight, with an average daily trading volume of $11 billion [1] - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share (EPS) over the next two years is 13%, indicating high market influence and investment appeal [1] - These enterprises demonstrate significant advantages in market capitalization, trading volume, profit growth potential, and valuation, making them worthy of investor attention [1] Group 3 - In the equity market, there are 5,121 listed private enterprises, with 3,771 listed on the A-share market and 1,350 on offshore markets, totaling a market capitalization of $9 trillion, which is 71% of the total MSCI China Index market capitalization [2] - The earnings weight of these private enterprises accounts for 31% of the index [2]