丨2025年6月6日星期五丨 NO.1央行：6月6日将开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作 6月5日，央行在官网开设"中央银行各项工具操作情况"栏目，并更新了2025年5月中央银行各项工具流 动性投放情况。该栏目公布了三大类九种工具的月度投放和回笼情况。根据该栏目公布数据，2025年5 月准备金净投放10000亿元，常备借贷便利（SLF）净投放5亿元，中期借贷便利（MLF）净投放3750亿 元，中央国库现金管理净投放2400亿元。 点评：市场分析普遍认为，央行开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作不仅是年内规模性流动性投放的关键举 措，更以"月初公告+新设专栏披露"的形式，展现央行稳定资金面、强化政策透明度的双重决心。 NO.3存款降息，理财"吃饱" 低于1%的存款利率、2%左右的理财预期收益率，让不少储户觉得要改变打理"钱袋子"思路了。存款再 度降息后，"存款特种兵"变成"理财猎手"，纷纷买入理财产品。理财公司趁势加大营销力度，助推银行 理财规模攀升。数据显示，截至6月3日，银行理财规模较4月末增长1400多亿元。 点评：业内人士认为，存款利率下调加大了银行揽储难度，而银行理财产品等迎来增量资金，年内理财 规模或将突破33万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in U.S. economic activity and unexpected macro data in May have led to increased uncertainty, as reflected in the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, which used the term "uncertainty" 80 times, impacting the bond market positively with a notable rise in bond prices [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Beige Book indicates a decline in U.S. economic activity, suggesting that tariffs and high uncertainty are causing a chain reaction in the economy [1] - ADP's report shows that private sector job growth in May was nearly stagnant, with only 37,000 jobs added, significantly below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest level in over two years [1] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have dropped to their lowest levels since May 9, with the 2-year yield down 8.25 basis points to 3.862% and the 10-year yield down 9.85 basis points to 4.355% [2] - Short-term bond ETFs have gained popularity, with significant inflows, including over $25 billion into iShares 0-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BIL) [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Many fixed-income investors are avoiding long-term U.S. Treasuries, shifting focus to short-term bonds as a substitute, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4] - Current conditions are expected to lead to a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with potential upward pressure on term premiums, keeping medium to long-term Treasury yields elevated [5]

特朗普曝普京将"报复"乌克兰，警惕避险情绪回归，黄金转换位在哪？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分 析 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In May, gold prices experienced a downward adjustment, reaching a low of $3120, ending a streak of new highs since January, influenced by easing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [2] - Oil prices fluctuated, initially rising from $55.78 to around $64, but concerns over oversupply due to OPEC+ increasing production led to a bearish outlook [4][9] - The US dollar index fluctuated, peaking at 101.95 before falling to 99.41, with a significant decline of over 9% since January, raising concerns about the dollar's strength amid trade tensions and potential government shutdowns [6] Group 2: Commodity Performance - Gold remains in a long-term bull market, with expectations of further increases due to potential Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, despite recent price adjustments [8][19] - Oil supply concerns are heightened as OPEC+ announced production increases, leading to predictions of further price declines, with a potential drop below $55 [9][27] - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to uncertainties from trade policies and economic conditions, with a projected trading range of $4.50 to $5.30 [10][28] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US labor market showed resilience with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, despite the impact of trade tensions [11][13] - Inflation indicators showed a decrease, with April CPI at 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [11][14] - Economic growth forecasts have been adjusted downward, with expectations of a 1.3% GDP growth rate for 2025, reflecting concerns over trade policies and economic stability [14][16] Group 4: Equity Market Trends - US stock markets rebounded in May, with the S&P 500 up 6.15% and the Nasdaq up 9.56%, as trade tensions eased and investor sentiment improved [29] - The Nikkei 225 index showed a recovery, reaching 38,700, supported by positive economic data and easing trade concerns [10][30] - Investor confidence in Japanese assets is rising due to the weakening of US debt and the attractiveness of Japanese financial assets amid global economic uncertainties [30][31]

端午假期期间，受美元走弱、地缘冲突加剧和美国关税政策反复等因素影响，外盘贵金属市场率先掀起 一波避险潮。6月3日国内期市开盘后，沪金、沪银延续端午节前的强势表现，其中沪银期货主力合约尤 为亮眼，单日大幅上涨2.85%，至8456元／千克，涨幅显著超越沪金，领涨贵金属板块。 贵金属避险属性凸显 当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。欧盟称若谈判未果， 针对美国的反制措施最迟将于7月14日生效；日本则明确表示无意在关税问题上让步；中美贸易摩擦可 能升级，美方指控中方违反日内瓦经贸会谈共识，中国商务部回应称，美方新增AI芯片管制、EDA软 件禁售等措施严重破坏既有协议。 当前，金银比仍维持在100左右的历史高位，反映出相对于黄金价格，白银价格或被显著低估。从资产 配置逻辑来看，避险情绪主导的黄金价格阶段性上涨结束后，资金往往转向估值更低、价格弹性更高的 白银以捕捉补涨机会。美联储政策分歧加剧美元指数波动，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比暗示15个月内可能 大幅降息，低利率预期进一步推动资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached a four-week high but are currently facing resistance, with geopolitical tensions and trade war risks providing support for gold prices [1][2][4] - The recent increase in gold prices was driven by heightened market risk aversion due to Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as escalating conflicts in Ukraine [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is experiencing a high-level consolidation, with key support levels at $3354 and $3333, and resistance levels at $3382 and $3400 [4] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials [2] - The recent ADP employment data showed a slowdown in hiring, reaching a two-year low, which has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report for May revealed only 37,000 new jobs added in the private sector, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market and raising concerns about the economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][2] Economic Indicators - The ADP report is considered a leading indicator for the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is expected to show 130,000 new jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2% [2] - Following the ADP report, the dollar index dropped approximately 20 basis points, reaching a low of 98.9783, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.58% to 4.421%, reflecting increased investor concerns about economic growth [1] Market Reactions - The gold price surged by $26 to a high of $3384.52 per ounce after the ADP report, highlighting a rise in safe-haven demand [1] - Market sentiment is divided, with some traders believing that upcoming unemployment claims and non-farm data will dictate market direction, while institutions focus on long-term trends [2] Future Outlook - If the non-farm payroll data is also disappointing, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may increase, putting further pressure on the dollar and benefiting safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Conversely, if the non-farm data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the resilience of the labor market, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar [2] Technical Analysis - Gold has successfully established a bottom, with the lowest point at around $3344, and is expected to test resistance at $3392 [3][5] - Current trading strategies suggest a focus on buying on dips around $3345-$3350 and selling on rallies near $3385-$3390, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined [6][5]

世界500强投资企业 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/3 | 3360. 36 | 35. 30 | 3385. 00 | 34. 39 | 783. 10 | 8456. 00 | 779.42 | 8420.00 | ...

受美伊核谈判风险影响，黄金成避险刚需，伊朗央行、商人、民众都在囤金，导致伊朗本地金价暴涨 80%。 据央视新闻周三报道，美国和其他国家将制定一项更详细的方案，旨在阻止伊朗发展核武器，但允许其 获得新核电站所需的燃料。此前特朗普不允许伊朗开展任何铀浓缩活动，而伊朗外长称，继续进行铀浓 缩活动是伊朗的红线。 6月4日周三，据媒体报道，伊朗的货币——里亚尔受美国和欧盟制裁、政治冲突、通胀影响，多年来总 体处于贬值趋势，所以很多人开始抢买黄金。商人买黄金来躲避美国制裁，而普通老百姓买黄金来保值 避险。 "今天靠黄金，明天靠加密货币，后天可能又换别的。" 一位不愿透露姓名的经济学家表示： "全球没有人能阻止伊朗进口黄金。" "黄金市场本来就很不透明，黄金占用的空间又小，而且大部分黄金是从邻国悄悄带进来 的。" 也有分析师警告，金价涨势太猛，可能已经形成泡沫。3月底金价一度冲破1000万里亚尔/枚，但随着美 伊开始核谈判，市场憧憬制裁解除导致金价回调，有些伊朗民众高位买入后已经被套。不过，由于制裁 问题没解决，黄金需求依然在。 在全球避险资金流入黄金的背景下，伊朗的需求更为激烈。过去一年，伊朗本地金价涨幅高达80%，从 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The gold price maintains a high - level volatile pattern supported by risk - aversion sentiment dominated by tariffs. Although the US dollar strengthens slightly in the short - term and exerts pressure on the gold price, the gold's safe - haven property is continuously boosted by geopolitical risks. Silver also maintains a strong trend due to the rise in the gold price and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline periodically. In the long - term, the US debt problem may lead to a long - lasting global de - dollarization trend, which is structurally beneficial to the gold price, and the long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, with a short - term tendency to be volatile and bullish [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 782.42 yuan/gram, down 0.68; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 8463 yuan/kilogram, up 7. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold decreased by 523 to 180310 hands, while those of Shanghai silver increased by 9481 to 379627 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 4044 to 129913 hands, and those of Shanghai silver decreased by 2228 to 142476 hands. The gold warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 17247 kilograms, and the silver warehouse receipt quantity increased by 18364 to 1087210 kilograms [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 0.1; the silver spot price is 8454 yuan/kilogram, up 29. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 1.02 yuan/gram, up 0.78; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 9 yuan/kilogram, up 22 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.57 tons to 935.64 tons, and silver ETF holdings increased by 64.83 tons to 14416.65 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC increased by 10203 to 174184 contracts, and those of silver increased by 2970 to 53012 contracts. The total quarterly supply and demand of gold are both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 and 54.83 respectively. The total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million ounces, down 21.4; the total annual global demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 22.57%, up 0.36; the 40 - day historical volatility is 27.14%, down 0.12. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold is 23.69%, up 0.56 and 0.55 respectively [2]. b) Industry News - Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50% starting from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - With five weeks left until the tariff restoration on July 8, the Trump administration urged countries to submit the best trade negotiation plans before June 4, bringing new uncertainties to the global market [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts of the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 is reduced from 2.2% to 1.6%, and is expected to be 1.5% in 2026 [2] c) Macroeconomic Data - US April durable goods orders decreased by 6.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; factory orders in April decreased by 3.7% month - on - month, slightly below expectations [2] - US April JOLTS job openings were 7.391 million, higher than the expected 7.1 million [2] - The US May ISM manufacturing PMI hit a new low since November 2024, remaining in the contraction range for months [2]