Core Viewpoint - The article highlights key economic indicators and events in China and the US, focusing on inflation data, GDP growth, and trade statistics, which are crucial for understanding market trends and potential investment opportunities [4][6][8]. Group 1: Economic Data in China - In June, China's imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while exports increased by 4.8% [2]. - The GDP for the second quarter of 2023 showed a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [9]. - The social retail sales in June grew by 6.4%, marking the highest growth since December 2023, driven by policies promoting consumption [14]. - Real estate development investment in the first half of 2023 saw a significant decline of 10.7% [2]. Group 2: Economic Data in the US - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly above the previous month's 2.8% [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June increased by 2.5% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. - Retail sales in the US experienced a decline in May, with the largest drop since March 2023, primarily due to decreased automobile purchases [21]. Group 3: Key Events and Statements - The US Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated heightened economic uncertainty due to tariffs, affecting business and consumer decision-making [23]. - Trump's upcoming statement regarding Russia is anticipated to impact market sentiment and geopolitical dynamics [19][20]. - The European Central Bank's inflation data showed a 2% increase in June, aligning with its target and influencing future monetary policy decisions [25].

欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，将把对美国关税的反制措施暂停期延长至8月初，欧盟一直明确表示倾向于与美国通过协商达成解决方案，这一立场依然不变。 ...

Group 1 - The index is expected to consolidate and gather strength before reaching new highs, with the recent tariff delay being fully priced in by the market, leading to a rise in major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3555.22 points [3][14] - The market's optimistic sentiment is currently prevailing, but there is insufficient risk pricing for potential negative surprises regarding tariffs, which may hinder further declines in risk evaluation [3][14] - The market's recent rise is primarily driven by an increase in risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000 Index, and All A Index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [4][15] Group 2 - Short-term themes are expected to rotate between policy expectations and industrial trends, with a focus on the "anti-involution" sector and real estate, which has seen a 6.1% increase this week due to anticipated policy developments [6][16] - The "anti-involution" sector, particularly in steel, pork, and certain segments of new energy, is highlighted as a potential area of focus due to high policy expectations following recent government meetings [6][16] - The trading of industrial trends is expected to continue, with short-term attention on sectors such as stablecoins, rare earths, nuclear fusion, military industry, deep-sea economy, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7][17]

见闻财经日历 WSCN Economic Calendar W 华尔街见闻 | 时间 地区 | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7月14日 周一 | | | | | 数据 国内 | 10:00 中国 6月进口同比(按美元计) | | -3.4% | | | 10:00 中国 6月出口同比(按美元计) | | 4.8% | | 国内 | 10:00 国新办举行新闻发布会介绍 2025年上半年进 出口情况 | | | | 事件 | 15:00 国新办举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行副 | | | | | 行长邹澜介绍2025年上半年金融统计数据情况 | | | | 海外 | 特朗普称将发布有关俄罗斯的"重大声明" | | | | 7月15日 周二 | | | -10.7% | | 国内 | 10:00 中国 1至6月全国房地产开发投资 | | | | | 10:00 中国 6月城镇调查失业率 | | 5% | | | 10:00 中国 1至6月城镇固定资产投资同比 | | 3.7% | | | 10:00 中国 6月规模以上工业增加值同比 | | 5.8% | ...

比特币维持跌势，现跌0.3%。欧盟委员会称，我们注意到特朗普关于关税的信函。准备继续努力，在8 月1日前达成协议。将采取必要措施维护欧盟利益。必要时将采取"反制措施"。 ...

Group 1 - The European Union, consisting of 27 member states, is the largest trading partner of the United States, importing goods worth $605 billion from the U.S., surpassing Mexico and Canada [1] - The highest value category of imports from the U.S. to the EU is pharmaceuticals, followed by automobiles, aircraft, and other heavy machinery [1] - President Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on any pharmaceuticals imported into the U.S., although this will not be implemented for at least 18 months [1] Group 2 - Mexico is another significant trading partner for the U.S., with imports exceeding $505 billion in 2024 [1] - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Mexico accounted for 69% of U.S. vegetable imports and 51% of fresh fruit imports in recent years [1] - Due to the short shelf life of these products, consumers may experience price increases more rapidly compared to other goods [1]

特朗普：从8月1日起，从墨西哥进口的商品将面临30%的美国关税。如果巴西凭借任何理由决定提高关税，那么，无论选择提高多少，都会在30%的基础上等额叠加。特朗普在另一封信中表示，从8月1日起，从欧盟进口的商品将面临30%的美国关税。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the ongoing US-EU trade negotiations revolves around tariffs on automobiles and agricultural products, with both sides aiming to reach a temporary trade agreement in the coming days [1][3] - The EU is seeking to limit agricultural export tariffs to no more than 10%, while focusing on automobile tariffs in the negotiations [3] - The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [4] Group 2 - The EU had previously planned to impose retaliatory tariffs on $210 billion worth of US imports, with rates up to 50%, but has postponed these measures to allow for ongoing negotiations [4] - A second set of countermeasures was initially proposed at €95 billion but has been reduced to €72 billion due to lobbying from various EU member states [4] - Any potential agreement is contingent upon the decision of US President Trump, raising concerns about the stability of the negotiations [2][3]

美国总统特朗普威胁对进口铜征收50%的关税，这让美国汽车行业警惕起来，行业高管和专家表示，此 举可能会使汽车制造商和供应商更难吸收边境税和不断上涨的成本。关税本身或许是可以管理的，但铜 价已经创下纪录新高。铜对于汽车制造至关重要，尤其是电动汽车的线束和发动机。美国市场严重依赖 进口铜、铝和钢铁，开发新产能可能需要数年时间，因此客户争相从有限数量的供应商处购买这些金 属，导致价格上涨。 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced declines across major indices, with the S&P 500 down 0.33% and the Dow Jones down 0.63% for the week, while the Nasdaq fell 0.22% [4] - Concerns over inflation due to tariffs led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with the 10-year yield rising nearly 6 basis points [2][6] - The dollar index rebounded, gaining 1% for the week, while Bitcoin surged nearly 5% [2] - Gold and silver prices increased, with gold rising over 1.3% and silver reaching a near 14-year high [2] Key News - U.S. Treasury reported a budget surplus in June, marking the first time tariff revenues exceeded $100 billion in the fiscal year [11] - Trump's new tariffs, termed "Tariff 2.0," have raised concerns about their impact on U.S. technology giants and the broader economy [9] - The EU reportedly abandoned its digital tax plans, indicating a strategic shift to secure favorable trade terms with the U.S. [9] - High-profile meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials suggest ongoing diplomatic efforts to manage trade tensions [9] Company Developments - Goldman Sachs has begun employing AI for coding tasks, significantly reducing human intervention in software development [13] - Apple plans to launch a series of new products in 2026 to boost revenue growth, including new iPhones and iPads [20] - Oracle and Google have both agreed to provide significant discounts on cloud services to the U.S. government, reflecting a desire to improve relations with the current administration [21] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Fed President indicated that new tariffs could delay interest rate cuts, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [12] - Analysts predict that the U.S. economy may face rising inflation as tariffs impact import costs, with core CPI expected to rebound to 3.3% in Q4 [14]