研究早观点 2025 年 12 月 4 日 星期四 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 【行业评论】【山证电新】20251203 光伏产业链价格跟踪-中游价格下 降 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,878.00 | -0.51 | | 深证成指 | | 12,955.25 | -0.78 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,531.05 | -0.51 | | 中小板指 | | 7,883.99 | -0.77 | | 创业板指 | | 3,036.79 | -1.12 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,308.37 | -0.89 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证非银】行业周报（20251124-20251130）：-监管持续完善，商业 不动产 REITs 启动 【公司评论】四方光电(688665.S ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is currently facing supply-demand contradictions, but with the implementation of "stabilizing growth" policies, steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, supported by real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, continuous manufacturing development, and high steel exports [1] Group 1: Production and Demand - In October, China's stainless steel crude steel production reached 3.6244 million tons, an increase of 78,700 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 2.22% [1] - The overall profit of the steel industry is declining, but the total steel demand is anticipated to remain stable due to various supportive factors [1] Group 2: Supply and Industry Structure - The supply side is expected to tighten under the influence of policy expectations, leading to increased industry concentration [1] - The macro trend of high-quality economic development and new productive forces is expected to benefit high-end steel products, particularly those with high barriers and added value [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The steel industry is expected to see a stable and improving industrial pattern, with some companies currently undervalued, presenting structural investment opportunities [1] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control, as well as leading steel enterprises benefiting from economies of scale, are likely to have valuation recovery opportunities in the future [1] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Under the ongoing supply-side "anti-involution," steel production capacity is concentrating on quality leading companies [1] - On the demand side, special steel is expected to benefit from manufacturing upgrades and AI transformation, while leading companies in the ordinary steel sector may benefit from improvements in the industry supply-demand structure in the medium to long term [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the gradual recovery of the chemical industry, with profit declines slowing down and demand gradually rebounding, particularly in sub-sectors like agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [22][23] - The AI application in various industries is accelerating, with significant advancements in hardware and software, leading to a reshaping of the global landscape [24][25] - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with rising costs impacting profit margins, yet there are emerging opportunities in niche markets like snacks and soft drinks [27][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market is showing signs of stabilization, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index trading at average P/E ratios above their three-year median, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][13][15] - The coal and non-ferrous metals sectors are leading the market, while sectors like internet services and software development are underperforming [9][13] Industry Analysis - The electric power and public utilities sector is rated "stronger than the market," with a focus on stable returns and shareholder value, particularly in large hydropower companies and high-dividend coal enterprises [20] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with overcapacity and price stability, but there is potential for recovery as the market undergoes structural adjustments [30][33] Investment Strategies - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on high-dividend assets like banks and utilities for defensive positioning, while also considering growth opportunities in technology and AI sectors [12][24] - Specific recommendations include monitoring companies in the chemical sector that are well-positioned to benefit from supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The rising prices of storage chips are significantly impacting the cost of consumer electronics, particularly smartphones, due to increased demand driven by the AI industry and supply chain constraints [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of AI on Storage Demand - Major tech companies are investing billions in AI data centers, which require GPUs that depend on various components, leading to supply chain strain [2]. - The demand for storage chips is being redirected towards AI applications, causing a shortage for other consumer electronics [2][3]. - Analysts predict a continued increase in storage prices, with estimates of a 30% rise in Q4 2023 and an additional 20% by early 2026 [3]. Group 2: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The current cycle of rising storage prices began in Q2 2023, with manufacturers announcing price hikes that have accelerated over time [3]. - There is speculation that major manufacturers may reduce production to drive prices higher, indicating a shift from a buyer's to a seller's market in the DRAM sector [3][4]. - The price increase has already led to higher costs for mid-range smartphones, with estimates suggesting an increase of 8%-10% in overall smartphone costs due to rising storage prices [5][6]. Group 3: Manufacturer Strategies and Consumer Impact - Smartphone manufacturers are experiencing inventory shortages and are slowing down their procurement of storage chips due to rising costs [5][6]. - The impact of rising storage prices is more pronounced in mid-range smartphones, which may see price increases of 100-500 yuan [6]. - Companies are cautious about raising prices due to competitive pressures in the smartphone market, which could affect sales volumes [7]. Group 4: China's Position in the Storage Market - Chinese companies hold about 10% of the DRAM market share, while major players like Samsung and SK Hynix dominate [8]. - The domestic production capacity of storage chips is currently insufficient to meet local demand, highlighting the need for increased local manufacturing capabilities [8][9]. - Analysts believe that the push for domestic semiconductor production has become essential, creating a more stable market for local companies [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic GPU leader, Moore Threads, is set to go public on the STAR Market on December 5, with an issue price of 114.28 yuan per share, raising questions about whether this is a gamble on domestic substitution or a value discovery driven by technological innovation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Position and Valuation - Moore Threads is being referred to as the "Chinese Nvidia," with a static price-to-sales ratio of 122.51 times for 2024, significantly higher than the industry average, reflecting market expectations for domestic GPUs and concerns over technological breakthroughs [3]. - The company adopts a full-function GPU approach, integrating AI computing, graphics rendering, and video processing capabilities, with its latest product's performance nearing that of Nvidia's RTX 3060, although it still relies on the CUDA framework for ecosystem compatibility [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company has incurred a cumulative net loss of 50.1 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with R&D expenditures reaching 38.1 billion yuan, accounting for 626.03% of its revenue, far exceeding the STAR Market's 15% threshold [4]. - By the end of 2024, the company is projected to have unrecouped losses of 12.1 billion yuan, with a negative cash flow from operating activities of 18.3 billion yuan and inventory levels at 6.47 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Risks and Long-term Value - Moore Threads faces systemic risks, including pressure to catch up technologically, especially after being placed on the U.S. "entity list," which may hinder product iteration speed [5]. - The company relies heavily on a few major clients for revenue, with the top five clients contributing over 80% of its income, raising concerns about its commercial viability [5]. - Governance issues, high reliance on stock incentives for team stability, and significant related-party transactions also pose risks to the company's development [5].

面对行业发展机遇，奥士康早已布局技术升级与产能优化，构筑起坚实的竞争壁垒。作为国家高新技术 企业，公司聚焦"数智化"建设核心战略，建立专业研究与技术研发中心，组建了涵盖研发、工程、销售 等领域的国内外专家团队，在高端PCB制程工艺、基材研发、设备选型等方面拥有行业领先的技术实 力。 在装备水平上，奥士康引入国际先进生产设备，实现生产流程的自动化、智能化升级，有效提升产品精 度与生产效率，满足高端客户对产品一致性、稳定性的严苛要求。凭借技术与装备优势，公司能够快速 对接服务器厂商及终端客户的产品需求，精准洞察PCB设计的发展趋势，提前布局高阶产品研发，在AI 算力设备、新能源汽车电子等高端领域形成差异化竞争优势。 奥士康董秘尹云云向《证券日报》记者表示："近年来，我公司持续加大研发投入，重点推进高速传 输、高密度集成等关键技术突破，同时优化产能布局，提升高端产品供给能力，为承接行业高端需求奠 定坚实基础。此次股权激励计划的实施，将进一步激发研发与业务团队的创新活力，加速技术成果转化 与市场拓展。" 尹云云称，PCB行业是电子信息产业的基础支撑，技术迭代加速，人才竞争日益激烈，核心团队的稳定 性与战斗力直接决定企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) driven by the integration of capital and technology, with expansion being the central theme for 2025. However, the outcomes of these M&A activities are varied, with some companies facing challenges in profitability despite aggressive acquisition strategies [1][8]. Group 1: M&A Activity and Market Trends - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a surge in M&A announcements, with significant transactions such as the acquisition of Chengxin Micro by Hidi Micro for 310 million yuan and the acquisition of 86.12% of Aola Semiconductor by SIRUI [3][4]. - The total disclosed transaction value in China's M&A market exceeded 170 billion USD in the first half of 2025, marking a 45% increase year-on-year, with high-tech and health sectors being prominent areas for large-scale M&A [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Motivations for M&A - Companies are pursuing M&A to rapidly acquire technology and strategically position themselves in the market, with a focus on achieving synergies between products and customer resources [4][7]. - The recovery of the consumer electronics market is providing a favorable environment for business integration post-M&A, as evidenced by Hidi Micro's projected revenue growth of 38.56% in 2024 [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks in M&A - Not all M&A transactions yield the expected results, as high technical barriers and strong business interconnections in the semiconductor industry complicate post-merger integration [8][10]. - For instance, Kangda New Materials faced significant challenges after acquiring several companies, leading to a decline in profitability and substantial goodwill impairments due to underperformance of acquired entities [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Congsheng Co., Ltd. (崧盛股份) is focusing on investment in core components, particularly in the fields of aerospace-grade harmonic reducers and future industrial and humanoid robotics, to enhance industrial synergy and investment layout [1][5]. Group 1: Investment and Business Planning - Congsheng Co., Ltd. has responded to inquiries regarding its investment in Chongqing Jingang, a subsidiary focused on supplying harmonic reducers for the aerospace sector, with clients including aerospace research institutes and commercial aerospace companies [5]. - The company plans to increase its investment in Chongqing Jingang by 20 million yuan by October 2025 to support the expansion of its product line and capacity in the industrial sector [5]. - Chongqing Jingang is developing harmonic reducers for industrial robots and humanoid robot joints, aiming to enter emerging markets in industrial automation and humanoid robotics [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Competitive Advantage - The market for domestic industrial harmonic reducers and humanoid robot harmonic reducers is expected to grow significantly due to the ongoing domestic substitution in the industrial sector and the rapid rise of the humanoid robotics market [5]. - Chongqing Jingang intends to leverage its aerospace-grade product technology to extend its applications into industrial and humanoid robotics, enhancing product competitiveness [5]. - By making forward-looking investments in core components like harmonic reducers, Congsheng Co., Ltd. aims to create a differentiated advantage in future market competition and further improve its industrial ecosystem [5].

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou Huigu New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is attempting to go public on the ChiNext board, leveraging its status as a national-level manufacturing champion and a significant market share in energy-saving coatings, despite underlying financial concerns and risks associated with its business model [1][2][25]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased from 664 million yuan in 2022 to 817 million yuan in 2024, with net profit soaring from 26.83 million yuan to 142 million yuan during the same period [3][26]. - The gross profit margin rose from 29.56% to 40.68%, which is highlighted as a key selling point in the IPO prospectus [4][27]. - However, there is a concerning trend of declining product prices, with significant reductions in the prices of various materials, which could impact future profitability [5][28]. Group 2: Fundraising and Financial Strategy - The company plans to raise 900 million yuan, with 250 million yuan allocated for working capital, despite having 275 million yuan in cash reserves as of the end of 2024 [6][30]. - The company has distributed a total of 47.65 million yuan in cash dividends from March 2022 to June 2024, raising questions about its financial management strategy [8][31]. Group 3: Accounts Receivable Concerns - As of June 2025, accounts receivable accounted for over 41% of total assets, with a total of 562.47 million yuan in receivables, posing potential cash flow risks [9][32]. - The company acknowledges that as sales grow, the balance of receivables may continue to increase, raising concerns about bad debt risks amid economic uncertainties [9][32]. Group 4: Corporate Governance and Relationships - The company has complex relationships with New Life Fortune, including cross-shareholding and shared management, which may complicate governance and transparency [10][33]. - The controlling shareholder, Tang Jing, holds 59.02% of voting rights, and family members occupy key management positions, raising concerns about nepotism and potential conflicts of interest [16][40]. Group 5: Safety and Compliance Issues - A significant safety incident in 2019 resulted in fatalities and highlighted serious management and safety protocol failures within a subsidiary, raising concerns about the company's commitment to safety [13][36]. - The company has been criticized for its lack of thorough reflection on this incident in its IPO documentation [15][39]. Group 6: Capital Structure and Market Position - The company underwent rapid capital restructuring, increasing its share capital significantly in a short period, which may dilute existing shareholders' interests [20][42]. - The planned expansion of production capacity is seen as a double-edged sword, with potential for both growth and overcapacity risks in a competitive market [24][45].

Core Viewpoint - New Lai Ying Material (300260) is expanding its investment in the sterile packaging materials sector by acquiring a controlling stake in Anpu Intelligent Technology, aiming to enhance production capacity and market share in the food packaging industry [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Acquisition - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Shandong Bihai Packaging Materials Co., Ltd., plans to invest 157 million yuan in Anpu Intelligent to support its working capital and repay debts [1]. - After the investment, Bihai Packaging will hold a 51% stake in Anpu Intelligent, which will be included in the consolidated financial statements [1]. - Anpu Intelligent's total assets are valued at 400 million yuan, with a net asset of 143 million yuan, and it reported a net loss of 5.17 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year [1]. Group 2: Business Performance - Bihai Packaging specializes in paper-aluminum-plastic composite sterile packaging materials for liquid foods, benefiting from the steady growth of the domestic dairy and beverage industries [2]. - In the first half of the year, Bihai Packaging achieved revenue of 784 million yuan and a net profit of 97.09 million yuan, indicating a stable growth trend [2]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company aims to leverage the domestic shift in the semiconductor industry by actively positioning itself in the semiconductor equipment and component market, expecting high growth in this sector [3]. - In the food safety sector, the company will continue its "equipment + packaging" business model to enhance customer loyalty and increase market share [3]. - In the biopharmaceutical field, the company plans to increase R&D investment in high-value pharmaceutical-grade pumps and valves to mitigate potential market downturn risks [3].