一、价格回顾 国内方面，新棉加工、销售加速推进，纺企刚需补库为主，最新发布的11月纺服类内销数据保持增长， 同时本周多部门明确未来将更大力度提振消费，改善消费预期、提振市场信心，推动国内棉价延续涨 势，郑棉最高涨至14100元/吨，达到2025年8月底以来最高水平。本周郑州棉花期货主力合约结算均价 13957元/吨，较前周上涨163元/吨，涨幅1.2%；代表内地标准级皮棉市场价格的国家棉花价格B指数均 价15081元/吨，较前周上涨121元/吨，涨幅0.8%。 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 【概要】本周，国内促消费政策继续发力，最新公布的11月纺服内销数据呈稳增态势，提振市场消费信 心，国内棉价延续涨势；受北半球棉花集中供应、美棉出口销售持续疲软等因素影响，外棉价格重心继 续下移，内外棉价差扩大至2021年10月以来最高水平。 宏观方面，美国通胀数据低于预期，增加美联储未来降息概率。美国11月消费者物价同比上涨2.7%， 涨幅低于预期的3.1%，受此影响，美股等金融市场普遍上涨。日本央行加息政策落地，市场反应相对 平淡。12月19日日本央行将政策利率上调25个基点至0.75%，达到30年来新高，这是 ...

樱井真表示，取决于美国经济的强劲程度以及国内工资和物价的发展，第一次加息至 1.0% 可能会在明 年 6 月或 7 月左右发生。 智通财经APP获悉，前日本央行政策委员会成员樱井真（Makoto Sakurai）周一表示，在行长植田和男 截至 2028 年初的余下任期内，日本央行可能会再加息三次，将利率提高至 1.5%。 政府支出计划可能适得其反 由于市场认为日本央行并不急于进一步加息，日元遭到抛售，这引来了担忧本币疲软引发通胀效应的政 府发出买入日元干预的警告。 他在接受采访时称，随着利率提高使借贷成本更接近被视为对经济中性的水平，并招致偏向鸽派的总理 高市早苗旗下通货再膨胀派顾问的批评，进一步的加息可能会变得更具挑战性。 与现任决策者保持密切联系的樱井真表示，"日本央行不会公开这样说，但可能将 1.75% 视为预估的中 性利率水平。加息至 1.5% 将从容地处于该水平之下，并且仍能给日本央行留出足够的空间，以便在需 要时降息。" 他指出，如果美国在强劲增长下支撑了日本经济，且国内通胀维持在央行 2% 的目标之上，日本央行可 能会在 2026 年 4 月开始的下一个财政年度加息两次。 樱井真表示，如果美国经 ...

美联储克利夫兰联储主席 Beth Hammack 表示，在通胀仍高于目标、数据存在失真背景下，未来数月内 没有必要调整利率。她称，11 月 CPI 的降温可能因政府停摆导致的数据问题而被低估，实际通胀或接 近 2.9%–3.0%。在更清楚评估关税对物价和经济影响前，倾向将政策利率维持在 3.5%–3.75% 区间至少 至明年春季，并认为当前利率可能已接近甚至略低于中性水平。（WSJ） 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three more times during Governor Ueda's term until early 2028, potentially reaching 1.5% [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Projections - The next interest rate hike is expected around June or July 2024, with an initial increase to 1.0% [1] - If the U.S. economy remains strong and domestic inflation stays above the 2% target, the Bank of Japan could implement two rate hikes in the fiscal year starting April 2026 [2] - The central bank's internal estimate for the neutral interest rate is around 1.75%, and raising rates to 1.5% would provide room for future cuts [1][2] Group 2: Political and Economic Challenges - The process of normalizing monetary policy may become more complex as rates approach neutral levels, with potential political resistance from government officials [3] - The recent rate hike to 0.75% was reportedly agreed upon by high-ranking government officials, indicating a level of political support for the Bank of Japan's actions [3] Group 3: Inflation and Fiscal Policy Concerns - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the central bank's 2% target for nearly four years, with businesses passing on rising costs to consumers [4] - The government's large fiscal stimulus plan, aimed at alleviating household cost pressures, may inadvertently accelerate inflation [4][5] - Concerns over fiscal discipline could lead to rising bond yields and further depreciation of the yen, undermining monetary policy efforts to stabilize prices [5]

美联储在12月如期降息，将联邦基金目标利率下调至3.5%-3.75%区间。不出所料，这一决定引发争议： 地区联储主席奥斯汀·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）和杰弗里·施密德（Jeffrey Schmid）投出反对票，主 张维持利率不变；理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）则支持更大幅度的50个基点降息。 本次会议整体基调偏鹰派，但鹰派程度或许低于市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔（Jay Powell）表示，联 邦基金利率"处于其中性水平估计区间的广泛范围内"，且"联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）已做好充分 准备，等待观察经济发展态势"。 英国《金融时报》货币政策雷达（Monetary Policy Radar）团队认为，鲍威尔的表态印证了他们的预 期，即美联储将在明年1月底的下次会议上维持当前利率水平不变。 不过，该团队认为应谨慎看待12月会议的鹰派暗示。美联储今年首次降息时就已明确，其将优先稳定劳 动力市场，而非担忧关税引发的物价上涨可能不是一次性的。 即便此前数周经过一番深思熟虑，美联储仍在12月再次降息，这表明上述政策反应机制仍在发挥作用。 该团队认为，劳动力市场疲软态势可能延续至明年，美联 ...

Group 1: US Macro Strategy - The US employment data and CPI showed a weak trend, with the unemployment rate rising sharply to 4.6% in November, while new jobs added were 64,000, slightly above expectations [2] - The November CPI recorded 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.0%, indicating a softening inflation trend despite potential statistical distortions [3] - The Federal Reserve's next chair confirmation may lead to further pricing in of rate cuts, with short-term bonds benefiting from this trend [3] Group 2: US Stock Market - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.10% and the Nasdaq by 0.48%, with market fluctuations driven by concerns over AI infrastructure spending and subsequent CPI data easing inflation worries [4] - The stock market remains at high valuations, with ongoing concerns about AI bubbles and monetization pressures, suggesting a potential 10%-20% market correction could lead to more reasonable valuations [4] Group 3: Currency and Gold - The US dollar is expected to enter a downward phase due to weak employment data and the upcoming confirmation of the new Fed chair, although a sustained decline is not anticipated [5] - The Chinese yuan is likely to appreciate due to the continuation of the Fed's rate cut cycle and increased demand for currency exchange [5] - Gold prices are expected to remain bullish, supported by ongoing Fed rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [5] Group 4: China Macro Strategy - Domestic economic data showed weak internal demand, with retail sales of passenger cars declining significantly in December [7] - The fiscal revenue growth slowed in November, with a notable drop in land sales revenue, while fiscal spending remains weak [8] - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining stable at 1.83% [8] Group 5: A-shares and Hong Kong Market - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.03%, while growth stocks underperformed due to external pressures [9] - The Hong Kong market faced challenges with the Hang Seng Index down by 1.10%, but medium-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's rate cut cycle [10] - High-dividend and financial sectors showed relative strength, indicating a preference for stable investments amid economic pressures [10]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - November economic data shows a slight decline in industrial production, consistent with high base effects and seasonal characteristics[2] - Fixed asset investment saw a limited year-on-year recovery, while real estate investment decline has widened, with prices continuing to drop month-on-month[2] - Consumer retail sales have significantly slowed down, with durable goods demand growth tapering off after an initial surge[2] Group 2: Financial Market Insights - The stock market experienced a volume decline with the average trading volume at 192.6 billion CNY, reflecting a drop in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.89%[8] - Bond market yields decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.75 basis points, indicating a potential short-term recovery opportunity in the market[8] - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of 14-day reverse repos, have contributed to a stable liquidity environment, with expectations of a potential rate cut in January[2] Group 3: International Market Dynamics - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% due to a higher labor participation rate[2] - The U.S. CPI data was significantly below expectations, raising concerns about data quality, yet inflation resilience remains a worry for the market[2] - The Japanese central bank's 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations, leading to a depreciation of the yen, with limited immediate liquidity contagion effects[2]

周一欧洲交易时段，英镑兑美元走强，上涨约 0.18%，交投于 1.3400 附近，盘中高点触及 1.3415。 周二将公布的美国第三季度 GDP 初值成为关注焦点，市场预计年化增速为 3.2%，低于第二季度的 3.8%。若数据不及预期，可能促使市场重新评估美联储 短期政策立场。CME FedWatch 显示，市场预计美联储在 1 月会议降息 25 个基点的概率约为 22.5%。 汇价上行主要受英国经济数据落地、美元阶段性走弱以及技术面偏多因素共同推动。中长期走势仍取决于英国经济基本面表现及英国央行政策路径。 英国国家统计局确认，第三季度 GDP 环比增长 0.1%，与初值一致。 数据对英镑形成一定支撑，吸引短线资金入场，但市场反应相对克制。投资者普遍认为，数据难以扭转对英国经济前景的谨慎预期，第四季度增长动能仍存 不确定性。 英国央行上周公布的货币政策声明显示，工作人员预计第四季度 GDP 零增长。央行以 5 比 4 的投票结果决定降息 25 个基点，将基准利率下调至 3.75%，这 是自 2024 年 8 月启动降息周期以来的第六次降息。此前公布的数据显示，10 月英国经济意外萎缩 0.1%，加深市场对复苏 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the US dollar, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rates and inflation [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% [1]. - Traders are focusing on the upcoming RBA meeting minutes to gauge the central bank's policy direction and stance on inflation [2]. - As of December 18, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for February 2026 indicate a 27% probability of the RBA raising rates to 3.85% [3]. Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US dollar has ended a three-day rally, with the dollar index (DXY) trading around 98.60, as market participants await the release of the US Q3 GDP annualized data [4]. - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester stated that current monetary policy is appropriate for pausing rate hikes to assess the impact of previous rate cuts [4]. - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021 [4]. Group 3: Leadership Changes in the Federal Reserve - The next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be someone who supports significant rate cuts, with Christopher Waller being a potential candidate who has reiterated a dovish stance on interest rates [5]. Group 4: Australian Inflation Data - Australian consumer inflation expectations have risen from 4.5% in November to 4.7% in December, supporting a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia [6]. Group 5: Australian Dollar Technical Analysis - The Australian dollar is currently trading around 0.6620, maintaining an overall upward trend, with key resistance levels at 0.6685 and 0.6707 [8]. - The 14-day RSI is at 57.05, indicating a neutral to bullish sentiment, while the 9-day EMA shows an upward trend but may exert short-term pressure on prices [8].