12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 会议在部署明年经济工作重点任务时明确提出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。 具体包括：深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划；扩大优质商品和服务供给；优 化"两新"政策实施；清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力；推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加 中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金 融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活力；高质量推进城市更新。 中央经济工作会议提出坚持内需主导释放出什么信号？如何清理消费领域不合理限制措施？在具体措施 层面，从加力扩围到优化"两新"政策实施，如何理解表述的转变？围绕上述疑问，《每日经济新闻》记 者（以下简称NBD）近日对中国宏观经济研究院研究员张燕生进行了专访。 大国的现代化必须以内需为主导 NBD：中央经济工作会议将内需主导放在明年经济工作的首位，并明确提出坚持内需主导。这释放了 什么信号？ 张燕生：今年全国两会期间，政府工作报告就把扩大国内需求作为经济工作的重中之重。年末举行的中 央经济工作会议把坚持内需主导作为明年各项任务之首。虽然提法有所不同，但重要性实质 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell over 1%, but the consumer sector showed relative resilience with a smaller decline [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) experienced a slight drop of 0.37%, with trading volume exceeding 300 million yuan and a net subscription of 12.8 million shares during the day [1] Group 2: Policy Impact on Consumer Sector - The "Two New" policy is expected to stimulate greater consumption potential in the home appliance sector, with a focus on domestic demand and a strong domestic market [3] - The high-level economic work conference emphasized the continuation of policies for large-scale equipment updates and trade facilitation, which is likely to benefit the export chain and cross-border channels [3] - Statistics indicate that from January to November 2025, over 12.84 million home appliances were replaced under the old-for-new policy, generating sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people [3] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Sentiment - As of December 15, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the Consumer ETF (159928) was 19.42, placing it in the 3.21% percentile over the past decade, indicating high valuation attractiveness [5] - The market is expected to experience seasonal changes in investment styles, particularly in December, with a tendency towards undervalued sectors [5] Group 4: Focus on Defensive Consumption Sectors - China Galaxy Securities suggests focusing on defensive sectors with stable cash flows and high dividend yields, as well as service consumption as a new growth point [7] - The market may enter a wide fluctuation phase, with short-term attention on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term focus may shift to TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [7] Group 5: Alcohol Industry Insights - Concerns have arisen regarding the high-end liquor market, with price declines prompting worries about channel stability [8] - Huachuang Securities anticipates that the liquor industry will see volume growth before price recovery, with key players like Moutai and Wuliangye influencing market dynamics [9][10] - Moutai is expected to stabilize prices through controlled supply, while Wuliangye is implementing subsidies to support channel turnover [11]

Group 1 - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 39,444 billion yuan, growing by 2.5% [1] - From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 456,067 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales were 411,637 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% [1] - The recent decline in the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales is attributed to a high base from the previous year and the early release of some consumer demand due to ongoing policies promoting the replacement of old goods [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government has allocated 500 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for "two new" initiatives in 2025, with 200 billion yuan for large-scale equipment updates and 300 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to November, the replacement of consumer goods generated over 25,000 billion yuan in sales, benefiting over 360 million people and playing a significant role in boosting consumption [1] Group 3 - The expansion of consumption is a long-term strategy that requires joint efforts from both supply and demand sides, particularly focusing on the 400 million middle-income group with a demand for upgraded consumption [2] - There is a need to enhance the quality and innovation of service supply, as the middle and high-income groups are increasingly shifting towards service consumption [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and developing plans to increase income for urban and rural residents [2] Group 4 - The real estate market has been adjusting, and the central economic work conference proposed high-quality urban renewal, focusing on renovation rather than large-scale demolition, which can create more jobs and establish a sustainable investment model [2] - Creating more service industry jobs is a long-term strategy, as the productive service industry is knowledge and talent-intensive, requiring further development [3] - To make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth, it is essential to address the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, promoting internal growth through reforms [3]

Economic Growth and Trends - In November, the growth rate of the real economy continued to slow, with demand weakening faster than supply[1] - The expected economic growth for this year remains around 5%, supported by better-than-expected import and export data[1][6] - The central economic work conference set a target for next year's economic growth at approximately 5% with moderate policy stimulus anticipated[1][6] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November fell to a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, significantly below market expectations[2] - Retail sales of goods decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 1.0%, with notable declines in jewelry (-29.1 percentage points to 8.5%) and automotive sales (-1.7 percentage points to -8.3%)[2][10] Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, which is lower than the market expectation of -2.3%[3] - Real estate development investment fell by 1.2 percentage points to -15.9%, and new construction area dropped by 0.7 percentage points to -20.5%[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 1 percentage point to -1.1%[3] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% in November, primarily due to a significant increase in vegetable prices[5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, aligning with market expectations[4][20]

Group 1 - The "Two New" policy has effectively expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [1] - The trade-in policy for consumer goods has significantly boosted sales in home appliances and communication products, leading to accelerated growth in consumer demand [1] - From January to November, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and communication equipment increased by 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2 - The large-scale equipment update policy is showing significant effects, with companies increasingly willing to invest in equipment upgrades and renovations [3] - Equipment investment has grown rapidly, contributing to an overall increase in investments and enhancing corporate competitiveness [3] - From January to November, investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 12.2% year-on-year, driving total investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry, indicating an expectation of returns that outperform the market benchmark by over 5% [5][13]. Core Insights - The optimization and continuation of the "Two New" policies are expected to activate greater consumer potential in the home appliance sector. The policies aim to stimulate demand through measures such as large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [8]. - The domestic sales driven by government subsidies are showing marginal slowdown, but the ongoing policies are anticipated to provide sustained demand stimulation in both product and service consumption [8]. - The report highlights that the impact of Mexico's proposed tariffs on Chinese home appliance companies is limited, as the revenue contribution from this market is relatively small [8]. - The market share of Miniled TVs is on the rise, with RGB-Miniled technology expected to lead the next generation of display technology upgrades, enhancing the competitive edge of Chinese brands in the global market [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Domestic sales are expected to benefit from the "Two New" policy, with leading white goods companies likely to gain more from trade-in programs due to their higher efficiency and mature management processes [3]. - Key investment themes include: - Leading companies with higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Visual, are recommended for stable allocation [3]. - The long-term focus on overseas expansion is emphasized, with Stone Technology highlighted as a potential beneficiary [3]. - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for a second growth curve, such as Anfu Technology, are also noted [3].

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10-11 outlined the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the need to optimize the implementation of the "Two New" policies, which include large-scale equipment updates and the consumer goods trade-in policy known as "national subsidies" [1] - In 2024, China will issue 150 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds for the consumer goods trade-in program, referred to as "national subsidies," with a significant increase to 300 billion yuan in 2025, doubling the amount from 2024 [1] - The "national subsidies" policy will be further optimized in 2025, expanding the categories eligible for trade-in to include new digital products and various home appliances [1] Group 2 - From January to November this year, the consumer goods trade-in program has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, with significant contributions from the automotive and home appliance sectors [2] - Experts suggest that the "national subsidies" amount for 2026 may see a moderate increase from 2025 levels, with a continued focus on optimizing funding allocation to enhance service consumption and further stimulate economic growth [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is focusing on domestic demand and optimizing the "Two New" policies, which are expected to enhance the implementation of vehicle replacement programs [5][13] - The commercial vehicle market has shown significant growth, with heavy truck sales exceeding one million units and a 1.2 times increase in new energy vehicle exports [18] - The passenger car market is experiencing unexpected demand in the high-end luxury segment, with companies like Jianghuai Automobile and Seres recommended for investment [7] Industry News - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized domestic demand and the optimization of the "Two New" policies for 2026 [5][13] - Zhongtong Bus held a supply chain strategic partnership conference, emphasizing quality and innovation in their product offerings [14] - Ankai Bus has exported 1,800 units to Saudi Arabia in 2025, marking a significant milestone in Sino-Saudi transportation cooperation [15] - The China Automobile Association has called for compliance with pricing guidelines to prevent irrational competition in the automotive industry [16] Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 0.09%, ranking 9th among A-share industries [6][31] - The passenger vehicle index rose by 0.24%, led by Great Wall Motors and Geely [6][36] - The commercial vehicle index increased by 0.21%, with CIMC Vehicles and Zhongtong Bus leading the gains [6][37] - The automotive parts index saw a slight decline of 0.11%, with Huamao Technology and Yueling Co. leading the gains [6][38] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the high-end luxury market is expected to grow, with recommendations for Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, while Geely is identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the automotive parts sector, companies like Desay SV, Zhejiang Xiantong, and Meili Technology are recommended due to their growth potential [7]

2025.12. 14 本文字数：1284，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 明年国家将继续发行超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新，也就是老百姓口中的"国补"。 近日，财政部党组召开会议传达学习中央经济工作会议精神。会议提出，明年用好用足各类政府债券 资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 所谓"两新"政策，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与老百姓利益关联最为密切的 是消费品以旧换新政策。上述财政部会议明确了明年将继续发行超长期特别国债来持续支持"国 补"。所谓超长期特别国债，是指中央财政发行的20年及以上期限、用于特定领域的政府债券，这一 特定领域正是上述"两重"（国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力）建设、"两新"工作。 为了提振消费，中央财政首次在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金，对消费者汽车以旧换 新、购买相关家电给予财政补贴，也就是"国补"。由于这一政策有效激发消费活力，2025年中央财 政发行了3000亿元超长期特别国债资金来支持"国补"。 随着2025年即将结束，"国补"接近尾声，不少老百姓十分关心明年"国补"是否延续。而近日召开的 中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2024 to support the "national subsidy" program for consumer goods replacement, which is aimed at boosting consumption and economic activity [1][2]. Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - In 2024, the central government plans to issue 150 billion yuan (approximately 21.5 billion USD) in ultra-long-term special bonds to support the "national subsidy" for consumer goods replacement, specifically for automobiles and related home appliances [1]. - The issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds will continue in 2025, with an increased amount of 300 billion yuan (approximately 43.2 billion USD) allocated for the same purpose [1]. Group 2: Policy Optimization - The recent central economic work conference emphasized the need to optimize the implementation of the "two new" policies, signaling the continuation of the "national subsidy" program [2]. - The Ministry of Finance proposed to utilize personal consumption loans and service industry loans to support consumption, indicating an optimization of the "national subsidy" policy for the upcoming year [2]. Group 3: Scope of Subsidy - The "national subsidy" program will target a broader range of consumer goods in 2024, including automobiles and eight categories of home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [3]. - In 2025, the subsidy scope will expand further to include additional categories like microwaves, water purifiers, and digital products such as smartphones and smartwatches [3]. Group 4: Expert Recommendations - Analysts suggest that the funding scale for the consumer goods replacement program may increase from 300 billion yuan (approximately 43.2 billion USD) in 2025 to 500 billion yuan (approximately 72.1 billion USD) in 2026 to further stimulate domestic demand [4]. - Experts also recommend granting local governments more authority to expand the subsidy range based on local consumption needs [3]. Group 5: Economic Impact - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that the consumer goods replacement program has generated over 2.5 trillion yuan (approximately 360 billion USD) in sales and benefited more than 360 million people from January to November this year [5].