7月15日英伟达宣布H20芯片，已经被美国批准对华敞开了供应，而在同一天 美国海关总署披露克了一组数据，指出6 月份中国稀土出口数量飙升至7742吨，同比增长60%， 比前一个月增长了32%。该数据创下了自2009年以来的新高。这两个变化也说明了中美关系回暖贸易置换成功。 美财政部长贝森特在7月15日接受采访的时候，提前向外界吹风，表示中美关税谈判势头良好，无需担心休战截止日 期，可以随时调整，同时透露中国和美国将在未来的几周进行第三次谈判。 1、中国已经研发出性能与H20芯片相当的芯片，因此英伟达销售H20芯片不存在问题 2、如果继续对中方限制的话，中方的芯片将会出现数字版的一带一路，甚至有可能取代英伟达芯片，这不是美国愿 意看到的。 而针对于对华供应芯片的事情，他也做出了评价，指出这是特朗普和中方谈判内的一部分事情，中美双方属于互相履 约。 不过依旧掩饰不住骨子里的傲慢和算计，指出之所以同意供应芯片原因有两个： 是又美国消费者进行买单。 傲慢无礼这就是美国人的真实态度，不过美财长深夜吹风，安抚市场的主要原因是因为，特朗普推动的关税驱动性膨 胀现在已经开始了，根据美联社披露的数据，美国上个月的膨胀已经高于了 ...

"我告诉市场参与者，不要担心8月12日。"贝森特在采访中说道。他指的是5月12日宣布的中美90天关税 停战协议即将到期的日子。作为特朗普政府关税谈判的核心人物之一，贝森特此番言论，意在为市场释 放稳定信号。 中美贸易谈判长期被视为华尔街的"风向标"，投资人也密切关注特朗普是否会落实此前威胁的高额关 税，贝森特的表态似乎为市场注入一针"强心剂"。 智通财经APP获悉，随着中美之间90天关税休战期即将于8月12日到期，市场关注是否会迎来新一轮贸 易摩擦。但美国财政部长贝森特周二在接受采访时表示，投资者无需过度担心这一"最后期限"。 事实上，市场早已对特朗普的"关税言论"有所警觉。华尔街甚至戏称"TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，特朗普总是临阵退缩）来描述这种典型走势，即市场因特朗普威胁关税而下跌，但又因他迟迟未 落实而迅速反弹。 在新一轮谈判前夕，中美双方近期已在多个关键领域互释善意，展开"筹码交换"。贝森特在采访中证 实，特朗普政府已向英伟达(NVDA.US)保证，将向其发放许可，允许其向中国企业出售高端图形处理 器。他说："你可以认为这是我们在日内瓦和伦敦谈判中用过的一个筹码。整 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **General Situation**: The report analyzes the supply - demand, price trends, and influencing factors of the rapeseed - related products (rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal) in both domestic and international markets. It points out that the prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are affected by multiple factors such as international market trends, domestic supply - demand, and policy - related uncertainties [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the international market, the good weather in the US soybean - producing areas leads to a high expected yield, and the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply of soybean meal, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. However, the upcoming peak season of aquaculture boosts the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens this demand. The price of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Internationally, the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and the decline in exports put pressure on the market. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory of rapeseed oil in factories, and the weakening of rapeseed in the international market drag down the price of domestic rapeseed oil. Although the decline in factory operating rates and the small number of rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may support the price, the short - term volatility of rapeseed oil may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal were 9404 yuan/ton and 2655 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decrease of 20 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 343 yuan/ton. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 2216 lots to 14433 lots, while that of rapeseed meal increased by 9308 lots to 14223 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3510, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 2380 to 10086 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9540 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2560 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9580 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.64. The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1340 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 770 yuan/ton. The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast increased by 0.21 million tons to 89.77 million tons. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 15.37 tons to 33.55 tons, and the import cost of rapeseed decreased by 6.55 yuan/ton to 4887.11 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills increased by 5 tons to 20 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed decreased by 2.67% to 9.86% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports and Inventories**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 10 tons to 34 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 4.13 tons to 28.79 tons. The weekly inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased by 0.72 tons to 9.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 1.05 tons to 1.51 tons [2]. - **Inventory in Different Regions**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region decreased by 0.68 tons to 59.27 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 2.46 tons to 38.04 tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.3 tons to 6.9 tons, and that of rapeseed meal in the South China region decreased by 1.1 tons to 28.2 tons [2]. - **提货 Volume**: The weekly提货 volume of rapeseed oil increased by 1.18 tons to 3.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 0.14 tons to 2.46 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed increased by 98.1 tons to 2762.1 tons, and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry increased by 411.2 billion yuan to 4578.2 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil decreased by 87 tons to 440.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal increased, with the call option increasing by 1.25% to 19.42% and the put option increasing by 1.41% to 19.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil also increased, both by about 1% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.08% to 14.6%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 1.12% to 16.79%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.44% to 11.38%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.02% to 13.17% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Monday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.1%. The prices of different contracts decreased by 0.1 - 1.3 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - **Soybean Situation**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China led to a high operating rate of oil mills and a loose short - term supply of soybean meal [2]. - **Palm Oil Situation**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 2.41% to 203 tons at the end of June, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 15 decreased [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed operating rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in different regions released by Myagric on Monday are important data to watch [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the US may affect the rapeseed market [2].

1. Core Views - For rapeseed meal, the current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth is "weather - dominated". The reduction of hot weather and beneficial rainfall in the Canadian plains this week bring pressure. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, and the short - term supply is loose, suppressing the price of the rapeseed meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for news on Sino - US trade negotiations. Recently, rapeseed meal has risen and may remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, although the production of Malaysian palm oil declines against the seasonal pattern, the unexpected drop in export data makes the MPOB report bearish. High - frequency data shows that the export improvement from July 1 - 10 provides some support, and the rebound of international oil prices also supports the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure. The uncertainty of third - quarter rapeseed purchases and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. Affected by the weakening of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil has declined in a volatile manner and may continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9424 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2659 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 683 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.9 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5099 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 81 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 355 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 16649 lots, up 1298 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are 4915 lots, up 6885 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 256301 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 560897 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 sheets, and for rapeseed meal is 12466 sheets [2]. 2.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 4893.66 yuan/ton, down 30.48 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.69, down 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 171 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 109 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 810 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200 thousand tons, up 50 thousand tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86%, down 2.67 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 304 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 2.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92.9 thousand tons, down 7.2 thousand tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 15.1 thousand tons, up 10.5 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 592.7 thousand tons, down 6.8 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 355.8 thousand tons, down 13.2 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 69 thousand tons, down 3 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 293 thousand tons, down 8 thousand tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 21.1 thousand tons, down 8.9 thousand tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 23.2 thousand tons, down 11.6 thousand tons [2]. 2.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981 thousand tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 2.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.17%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.02%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.45%, down 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.48%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.49%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.82%, down 2.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.19%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. 2.7 Industry News - On July 11th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the improved weather conditions in the Canadian plains. The most actively traded November rapeseed contract closed down 2.40 Canadian dollars at 682.70 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 2.50 Canadian dollars to 691.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year. The current weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, and the good - to - excellent rate is relatively high. The US tariff issue may damage the downstream demand for US soybeans and restrict the market price [2]. 2.8 Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions released by myagric on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

中国大豆进口刷新6月历史纪录，但尚未采购任何四季度装运的美国大豆，分析师指出，后续是否下单 将取决于中美贸易谈判的进展！点击了解详情。 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market [1] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of 0.47% in June, with a year-to-date return of 0.87% [3][5] - The 30-day volatility of the index has shown a downward trend during this period [3] Index Performance - The China Treasury and Policy Banks Index achieved a return of 0.48% in June, with a year-to-date return of 0.76% [5] - The performance of various indices is as follows: - China Aggregate Index: -0.01% (1D), 0.47% (MTD), 0.87% (YTD) [5] - China Treasuries: -0.04% (1D), 0.60% (MTD), 0.91% (YTD) [5] - China Corporate: 0.03% (1D), 0.28% (MTD), 1.04% (YTD) [5] - 10+ Year Maturity: -0.13% (1D), 1.30% (MTD), 2.23% (YTD) [5] Market Outlook - The yield spread between US and Chinese 10-year government bonds has widened due to market concerns over US debt credibility, although it has narrowed since the trade "truce" in April [11] - The upcoming third-quarter US-China trade negotiations may shift market focus back to macroeconomic drivers, potentially affecting capital inflows into Chinese government bonds [11] - The return rate for high-rated dollar bonds in Asian emerging markets is approximately 3% year-to-date, driven mainly by benchmark yields [11]

Group 1: Rare Earth Industry Developments - The Brook rare earth project in Wyoming, backed by Ramaco Resources, is expected to yield 1.7 million tons of rare earth oxides, with 40% being critical elements like neodymium and praseodymium essential for military applications [1] - The U.S. Department of Defense has invested 15% in MP Materials, yet 80% of its rare earth concentrates still rely on processing in China, highlighting the ongoing dependency on Chinese refining capabilities [5] - The price of rare earth concentrates from Baotou Steel Group has increased by 1.5% to 19,109 yuan per ton, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of price rises [8] Group 2: U.S.-Brazil Trade Relations - President Trump imposed a 50% punitive tariff on Brazilian beef and coffee, demanding the cessation of judicial investigations against former President Bolsonaro, leading to a diplomatic crisis with Brazil [1] - Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced three countermeasures against the U.S., including a complaint to the WTO and potential reciprocal tariffs starting August 1 [1] - Brazil supplies 50% of U.S. beef imports, and the price of hamburger patties surged by 30% due to the impending beef crisis [5] Group 3: Automotive Industry Challenges - Ford and General Motors are facing layoffs as neodymium-iron-boron magnet inventories are projected to last only 60 days, impacting production capabilities [3] - BMW has issued a warning about potential layoffs of 2,000 workers at its South Carolina plant due to U.S. tariffs on auto parts [6] - The Pentagon is concerned about the implications of rare earth shortages on military aircraft like the F-35, which requires 417 kg of rare earth materials per unit [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is showing a predominantly positive trend, with rapeseed meal futures experiencing a price increase of 1.46% [1][2] - The main rapeseed meal futures contract opened at 2610.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 2646.00 CNY and a low of 2610.00 CNY during the trading session [1] - The market is currently in a seasonal peak for aquaculture feed consumption, but the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is considered poor compared to alternatives [2] Group 2 - Analysts from various institutions have differing views on the future of rapeseed meal prices, with some expecting price pressure due to the influx of Brazilian soybeans and tight supply of old-season rapeseed [2] - The low inventory of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal are contributing to short-term price fluctuations [2] - The market is currently observing a wait-and-see approach regarding the outcomes of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, leading to a cautious trading atmosphere [2]

Group 1 - The core of the tariff policy under the Trump administration is an attempt to achieve economic goals through increased tariffs, but the consequences are more complex than anticipated [1] - Analysts on Wall Street identify the tariff policy as the biggest obstacle to the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, creating uncertainty for businesses and consumers [3] - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have significantly impacted global trade dynamics, with various countries facing different tariff rates, such as 25% on Japan and South Korea, and up to 200% on key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [5] Group 2 - Despite the strong tariff measures, consumer inflation expectations have surprisingly decreased to 3.02%, the same level as before the tariff war began, although this optimism may be unfounded [6] - The progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations contrasts with the difficult negotiations with other countries, largely due to China's control over critical rare earth resources, which gives it leverage in discussions [8] - The overall effects of the tariff policies remain unpredictable, with potential inflation risks still present despite a temporary decline in consumer expectations [8]

菜籽系产业日报 2025-07-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9468 | -42 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2611 | 25 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 56 275066 | -4 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -6801 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 295 567403 | 22 -26 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 17084 | 1352 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11937 | -109 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 3021 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 15030 | -633 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 681.6 | -23 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5069 ...