Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views - For the soybean meal market, the Sino - US talks have sent positive signals but no final results yet, and the US biodiesel policy has not met market expectations, dragging down US soybean prices. Domestically, the supply of soybean and soybean meal is relatively loose, and the market is focusing on Sino - US trade negotiations [2] - For the corn market, as new corn gradually enters the market, the supply will increase, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing sentiment and the volume of new grain [4] Group 3: Summary by Catalog - Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The soybean meal 2601 contract closed at 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (+1.26%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract closed at 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (+2.05%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, soybean meal spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis decreased by 27. In Fujian, rapeseed meal spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the spot basis decreased by 19 [1] - Market Information: Brazil's expected soybean exports in September 2025 are 715 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but higher than last year. The exports from January - September 2025 are expected to reach 9.525 billion tons, and about 1.6 billion tons from October - December [1] Market Analysis - Sino - US talks have positive signals but no final results, and the US biodiesel policy has affected US soybean prices. Domestically, the supply of soybean and soybean meal is loose, and the market focuses on Sino - US trade negotiations [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Group 4: Summary by Catalog - Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The corn 2511 contract closed at 2165 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.05%); the corn starch 2511 contract closed at 2474 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price remained unchanged, and the spot basis decreased by 1. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price remained unchanged, and the spot basis decreased by 5 [3] - Market Information: From September 1 - 19, 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 4.73 million tons, with an average daily export of 305,807 tons (up 3.1% year - on - year). The export amount was 940 million US dollars, and the average export price was 198.1 US dollars/ton (up 1.8% year - on - year). In August 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 6.849 million tons (up 13.0% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply of corn is relatively loose as new corn in the Northeast and North China is gradually on the market. Traders are pessimistic about the future. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with a short - term strengthening of the upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and cautious observation is advised; among commodity sectors, black commodities are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to rise significantly in the short - term, with cautious long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound in a volatile manner, with cautious long positions; precious metals are expected to be strong and volatile at high levels, with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP was significantly revised upwards, the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, 2025, were at a new low since the week of July 19, 2025, the US dollar index strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite continued to decline. - Domestic: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, and domestic demand continued to slow down. Policy support has been strengthened, and domestic risk appetite has increased significantly. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, and cautious observation is advised [2]. 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of domestic steel continued a small - scale rebound on Thursday. The real - world demand continued to weaken, but there were differences among varieties. The supply remained at a high level, and the logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to be strong on Thursday. The demand remained strong, and the supply was generally at a high level. The iron ore price should be treated with a range - bound thinking, but there is a risk of negative feedback after November [4][5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly on Thursday, while the futures prices rebounded slightly. The downstream demand is expected to improve. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash fluctuated on Thursday. The price was affected by the downstream glass sector. In the short - term, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, but in the long - term, the supply contradiction will suppress the price [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass fluctuated on Thursday. The supply remained stable, the demand improved marginally, and with positive policy sentiment, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The LME copper price rose and then fell overnight. Although the production of the Grasberg copper mine was affected, the复产 schedule reduced market speculation expectations [8]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose on Thursday and then fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term to wait for new drivers. The social inventory decreased significantly due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply is tightened in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The inventory decreased significantly. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with support from maintenance and peak - season expectations, but the upside space is under pressure [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Thursday. The supply and demand both increased, and the fundamentals improved marginally. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the upper - pressure range should be monitored [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Thursday. There is no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Thursday. The spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased. The policy expectation is still strong, and it is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [11]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between Russia and NATO have intensified, and the supply risk has increased. Although the resumption of exports from the Kurdish region in northern Iraq provides some support, the long - term bearish expectation remains unchanged [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded following the crude oil price. The peak - season demand is over, and the surplus pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the extent of following the crude oil price increase [13]. - **PX**: The main contract fluctuated. The supply is still tight, but the polyester sector has declined recently, and it is expected to be weakly volatile with some support below [13]. - **PTA**: The market has expectations of joint production cuts by leading enterprises, but the basis strengthening is limited, and the demand in the peak season has fallen short. There is long - term downward pressure on the disk [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price remained low and volatile. The port inventory changed little, and the downstream demand was weak. There is no obvious driving force for the price to rise [14]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased slightly. The terminal orders increased seasonally but with limited amplitude. The subsequent upside space may be limited [14]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The supply is in surplus in the short - term, but there may be a turning point in supply and demand in October [15]. - **PP**: The market price recovered slightly. The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the improvement of peak - season demand should be monitored [15][16]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price increased slightly. The supply increased, and the peak - season demand fell short of expectations. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market was stable. The supply is sufficient, the demand support is weak, and the inventory is accumulating, so there is significant short - term pressure [17]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. The resumption of export tax in Argentina and the possible downgrade of US soybean crop ratings provided some support, but the high yield and weak export sales restricted the rebound [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. The low - valued cost of imported soybeans provides support [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The supply - demand situation is stable. In the future, attention should be paid to the low inventory in the production area, the price - support sentiment dominated by policies, and the impact of US soybean oil - related biodiesel policies on the market [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market continues to have a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The rapeseed oil supply may shrink significantly in the short - term, and the high inventory will continue to decline, so the price is likely to rise [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Paper pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing supply - demand, price, and inventory information, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing or trading within a range [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and declined, with weak spot trading but good pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new - cotton listing. The acquisition of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton is expected to start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with the output forecast ranging from 720 to 770 tons. Ginning factories are cautious about new - cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly. At the beginning of new - cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. Domestic peak - season demand is weak, and spinning profits are poor, which drags down the cotton price. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations need further follow - up. After the short - term breakdown of Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, and the supply pressure is less than last year. In the medium term, based on the sugar - alcohol ratio, if the current ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Attention should be paid to subsequent production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. This year's sales rhythm is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Since July, rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. Typhoon Kajiki is expected to have little impact on sugarcane growth, and subsequent growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price is strongly running. Affected by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the demand for cold - storage apples has increased. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with the pre - order price of pre - harvested apples remaining high. From a fundamental perspective, the high price of early - maturing apples has raised the market's expectation for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, according to bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In addition, farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than market expectations. Overall, although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage inventory in the new season will be higher than expected, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&IR oscillated weakly, and BR oscillated strongly. The wait - and - see sentiment in the futures market has increased. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber have stabilized with a slight increase, the import price of butadiene in the external market has remained stable, and the prices in the Thai raw - material market have mostly declined. In terms of supply, the global natural - rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and there has been a lot of rainfall in the main producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene - rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants in maintenance and low - load operation. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants has also decreased significantly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly last week, and tire enterprises maintained normal production, but the inventory of finished - tire products increased. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao announced by Longzhong this week continued to decline to 461,200 tons, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber announced by Zhuochuang last week fell back to 12,600 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rebounded to 27,800 tons this week. Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, and the supply and inventory of synthetic rubber both decrease. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is cautious. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [5] Paper Pulp - The paper - pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon is 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish is 4,220 yuan/ton, and the prices are stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China is 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.7%. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts. China's paper - pulp import volume in August 2025 was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 227,000 tons. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the paper - pulp supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in port inventory. The paper - pulp demand is still average. A wait - and - see approach or a trading - within - a - range strategy is recommended [6] Logs - The futures price is oscillating. The mainstream spot price has remained stable. In terms of supply, the weekly arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price has been weak, and the import willingness of traders has declined. In addition, the external - market price is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. In terms of demand, although it is the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average outbound volume during the off - season has remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction has been smooth. In terms of inventory, the total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]

Core Viewpoint - China has made significant achievements in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading international investors to believe that trade wars and U.S. technology export bans will not hinder China's innovation progress [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are boosting investor confidence in the Chinese stock market [1] - A temporary agreement on tariffs and China's moderately loose monetary policy have further enhanced investor sentiment [1] - Foreign investors are increasingly returning to the Chinese stock market due to its attractiveness and the need for diversified investments [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Fund issuance and capital flow data indicate a growing interest from foreign investors in the Chinese stock market [1] - Investors now have the opportunity to increase their positions under relatively attractive conditions [1] - Strong support from the Chinese government for the real economy and financial markets is further boosting investor confidence [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to remain attractive to both domestic and international investors in the future [1] - China's loose monetary policy, targeted industry support, and relatively favorable valuations create a conducive environment for strong stock market performance [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell mentioned balancing inflation concerns with a weakening job market in future rate decisions; the US dollar index strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to drive long - term funds into the market. The short - term domestic policy support has increased, and domestic risk appetite has risen sharply. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation [4]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to be short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are short - term oscillatory, and cautious observation is recommended. In the commodity sector, black metals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious short - term observation; non - ferrous metals have risen significantly in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillatory and rebounding, with cautious long positions; precious metals are short - term high and strong oscillatory, with cautious long positions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell needs to balance inflation concerns and a weakening job market in future rate decisions; the US dollar index has strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled. Domestically, China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth are lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to drive long - term funds into the market. The short - term domestic policy support has increased, and domestic risk appetite has risen sharply. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with cautious short - term long positions; treasury bonds are short - term oscillatory, with cautious observation; black metals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious short - term observation; non - ferrous metals have risen significantly in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillatory and rebounding, with cautious long positions; precious metals are short - term high and strong oscillatory, with cautious long positions [4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as semiconductors, energy metals, and batteries, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Fundamentally, China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth are lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to drive long - term funds into the market. The short - term domestic policy support has increased, and domestic risk appetite has risen sharply. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volume. The construction industry's stable growth plan has led to rebounds in glass and steel. Fundamentally, real demand continues to weaken, and steel inventories are rising, but the increase has narrowed. Apparent consumption has slightly increased. Supply has also increased, especially in construction steel. There are rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. The short - term steel market is likely to be range - bound [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Steel mills are replenishing stocks before the National Day, and iron ore production has increased. Supply is high, with a decrease in global shipments and an increase in arrivals this week. Port inventories have also increased slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - bound mindset, but there is a risk of negative feedback after November [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: At around 8 pm last night, copper prices soared due to the shutdown of the world's second - largest copper mine, Grasberg. The mine's annual production is 800,000 tons, and the shutdown affects about one - third, or 270,000 tons. However, Grasberg will resume production in stages and fully recover in 2027, with the actual impact lower than the theoretical value. Copper concentrate spot TC is stable and slightly rising, electrolytic copper production is high, and the impact of recycled copper policy disturbances on production is limited. Future demand faces a marginal decline risk. The upside space is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, aluminum prices stabilized, closing with a small real - body positive line, supported by the 60 - day moving average. After the Fed's interest rate cut, non - ferrous metals have returned to fundamental trading, with different trends among varieties. Currently, the fundamentals of aluminum are weak [9]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. Manganese ore trading has slowed down. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises has decreased, and daily production has also decreased. Steel mills' profits are around the cost line, and the September procurement is mostly completed. With the approaching of the National Day and the October tender, downstream demand is expected to improve. The Lanthanum market sentiment has improved. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to be range - bound [9]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda ash contract was strong. Affected by the downstream glass sector, soda ash prices have strengthened. Last week, supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall supply is still sufficient. Demand is stable week - on - week, with some improvement in the peak season, but terminal demand support has not changed significantly, and the demand increase space is limited. Currently, soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, with the peak season and upstream overhauls decreasing, supply and demand will both increase, but in the long term, supply - side contradictions will suppress prices [9]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was strong. On September 24, the "Building Materials Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was officially announced, combined with the traditional peak season, leading to a rise in glass prices. Last week, glass production was stable, and downstream deep - processing factory orders increased slightly. Overall, glass supply is stable, demand has marginally improved, and with positive policy sentiment, it is expected to be short - term strong [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum factories are short of raw materials, with rising production costs. It is still the off - season, with weak manufacturing orders and poor demand. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has remained low, reaching 29.92%, slightly rising from last week, mainly due to some smelting enterprise overhauls in Yunnan and tight ore supply. However, the impact is expected to be short - term, and the start - up rate will rise after the overhauls end. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore supply will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak, with weak demand in traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances, and weakening new photovoltaic installations in the past two months. Due to supply tightening, tin price declines have led to some downstream and terminal enterprises replenishing stocks and making rigid purchases, with inventory decreasing by 936 tons to 8,453 tons. Overall, the price is expected to be short - term oscillatory, with overhaul and peak - season expectations supporting the price, but the upside space will be under pressure [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 0.79%, with a new settlement price of 73,360 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract added 10,199 lots, with a total position of 714,600 lots. The steel union quotes battery - grade lithium carbonate at 73,250 yuan/ton (flat). The latest CIF price of Australian lithium spodumene is 827.5 US dollars/ton (down 5 US dollars). The production profit of purchased lithium spodumene is - 2,519 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong peak - season demand, a slight reduction in social inventory, and the transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The fundamentals are marginally improving, with limited downside space. The market is expected to be oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial silicon 2511 contract rose 0.84%, with a new settlement price of 8,990 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position was 508,300 lots, with a reduction of 1,424 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9,500 yuan/ton (flat), and the futures are at a discount of 480 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China 421 and East China oxygen - containing 553 is 200 yuan/ton. There is no obvious positive factor for industrial silicon, and the market is expected to be range - bound [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon 2511 contract rose 2.41%, with a new settlement price of 50,910 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position was 250,400 lots, with a reduction of 2,089 lots. The latest price of N - type re -投料 is 51,500 yuan/ton (flat), and the price of P - type cauliflower material is 30,500 yuan/ton (flat). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.35 yuan/piece (flat), the price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) is 0.315 yuan/watt (flat), and the price of N - type components (centralized) is 0.66 yuan/watt (flat). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7,850 lots (down 20 lots). Recently, the spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have increased, and there is still a strong policy expectation. The short - term is expected to be high and oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the spot price support [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US's tough stance on Russia has pushed up oil prices. Trump's remarks have raised concerns about supply disruptions. Russia is considering diesel export restrictions, and CTA short positions are being closed. Oil prices will be supported in the near term and remain oscillatory [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The rebound of oil prices has driven up asphalt prices. However, the peak - season demand is over, and there is still excess pressure. The short - term basis is slightly decreasing, and inventory de - stocking is limited. In the future, oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and attention should be paid to the follow - up increase of asphalt prices [13]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate with the polyester sector, with support from crude oil costs. The previous small positive factors from low device start - up and increased overhaul plans have been priced in. The PXN spread has decreased slightly to 205 US dollars, and the PX foreign market has fallen to 812 US dollars. PTA short - term processing fees are being squeezed. PX is still in a tight situation, but with the recent decline of the polyester sector, it may remain weakly oscillatory with some support below [13]. - **PP**: The market price is weakly oscillatory. The two - oil polyolefin inventory has decreased. Device overhauls have led to a short - term decrease in production, and downstream start - up and orders have improved, with raw material inventory rising and peak - season stocking starting. However, seasonal supply increases and new capacity releases have kept the supply loose, and the excess pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to be oscillatory and slightly weak, and attention should be paid to peak - season demand improvement [14][15]. - **PTA**: The stimulus from PTA production cut rumors has ended, and there is no substantial news. Downstream start - up has fallen, terminal orders are average, and peak - season demand has disappointed. Downstream inventory has increased, and the PTA trading basis has been falling. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with more device overhauls planned. There is still some support at the previous low. In the short term, with a large increase in short positions and no major fluctuations in oil prices, the futures price is under downward pressure [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol remains low and oscillatory, with stable port inventory. The expected start - up of Yulong has strengthened. Downstream demand is weak, and after the peak season, trading is still light, with the basis not significantly improved. If downstream inventory continues to accumulate, there is no obvious upward driver for ethylene glycol prices, and it will continue to be oscillatory [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber has adjusted with the polyester sector, and the price has slightly decreased. Terminal orders have seasonally increased but with limited amplitude. Short - fiber start - up has rebounded, leading to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and start - up. Currently, the upside space is limited, and short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang is weakly oscillatory, and the basis is weakening. In the short term, domestic and imported supply has slightly decreased, and the restart of port MTO has prevented inventory from rising. The continuous weakness of the port has pressured prices, and some inland arbitrage windows have opened, but the supply - excess pattern cannot be changed in the short term, and high inventory still suppresses prices. In the long term, the recent malfunction and overhaul of Iranian devices have led to speculation about early gas restrictions, and October imports may be the key to the supply - demand change of methanol. Long positions can be considered in the long term [14]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market is priced at 7,080 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with price adjustments in different regions. Device restarts have increased supply, and the start - up of the agricultural film industry has been slow, with order growth slower than in previous years. However, the inventory is relatively low, and the stability of oil prices under geopolitical and Fed interest - rate cut backgrounds provides some support. Currently, the return of supply and lower - than - expected peak - season demand make the overall supply - demand situation pessimistic, and the price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly weak [15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. Currently, the urea fundamentals show a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and differentiated inventory." Supply is increasing as previously overhauled devices resume production, and the daily output is expected to return to 200,000 tons. Agricultural demand during the autumn fertilizer - stocking period from late September to early October may bring some short - term sales, but the overall impact on the market is limited. Industrial demand is still low, with the compound fertilizer industry's capacity utilization rate at only 38.63% as of September 18. Inventory shows a differentiated pattern, with enterprise inventory increasing by 2.88% to 1.1653 million tons, indicating that domestic demand is lower than supply, and port inventory decreasing by 6.08% to 516,000 tons due to approaching export windows. Overall, the urea market has sufficient supply and weak demand support, with enterprise inventory accumulation indicating a loose fundamental situation and significant short - term pressure [16].

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, with soybean meal futures showing a decline of approximately 3.60% [1] - Current soybean supply in China is ample due to high import volumes and oil mills maintaining high operating levels, leading to rising soybean meal inventories [1] - The USDA report has adjusted the U.S. soybean planting area upwards to 81.1 million acres while lowering the yield estimate to 53.5 bushels per acre, impacting market expectations [2] Group 2 - The market sentiment is cautious due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential volatility expected from social media statements by U.S. officials [1] - Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and meal is expected to exert short-term pressure on the soybean complex [2] - The soybean harvest in the U.S. is underway, which is anticipated to increase supply pressure in the market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the粕类 market is neutral, and for the corn market, it is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The outcome of the Sino-US peace talks is yet to be determined, but there are positive signals. The US biodiesel policy has not met market expectations, and the decline in oil prices has dragged down the price of US soybeans. Domestically, the fundamentals remain unchanged, with rising inventory of soybeans and soybean meal and ample supply. The focus is on the Sino-US trade negotiations [2] - In the domestic corn market, as new grain gradually enters the market, supply increases. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement sentiment and the volume of new grain [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3034 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.66% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2528 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.24% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of the week ending September 7, Canada's rapeseed exports were 4.6 million tons, and the cumulative exports for the 2025/26 season were 57.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 60.3% [1] Market Analysis - The Sino-US peace talks have sent positive signals, but the US biodiesel policy has not met expectations, and the decline in oil prices has dragged down US soybean prices. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable, with increasing inventory and ample supply. The focus is on Sino-US trade negotiations [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2431 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton or 1.30% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market News: For the week ending September 11, US corn export sales for the 2025/26 season increased by 1.2316 million tons, exports for the next season were 0 tons, and export shipments were 1.5559 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous week and a 16% increase from the four-week average [3] Market Analysis - Supply: Corn in Northeast and North China is gradually entering the market, with prices in Liaoning first falling and then rising, and prices in North China continuing to decline. Supply is relatively ample [4] - Demand: Deep processing enterprises have low demand, and feed enterprises have low inventory, mainly replenishing on demand and waiting for new grain [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Group 1 - The visit of the U.S. congressional delegation to China marks the first since 2019, highlighting a potential shift in U.S.-China relations amidst ongoing trade tensions [2][10] - The U.S.-China trade war has been ongoing since July 2018, with significant tariff increases from the U.S. on Chinese goods, leading to an economic standoff [2][5] - Despite high tariffs, China's trade surplus with the U.S. has grown from $323.3 billion in 2018 to $361 billion in 2024, indicating a complex economic relationship [5] Group 2 - The delegation's visit is seen as an attempt by the U.S. to engage in dialogue with China, especially during a period of stalled trade negotiations [7][10] - The contrasting backgrounds of U.S. Ambassador Nicholas Burns, a business elite and Republican hawk, reflect the internal contradictions in U.S. policy towards China [7][10] - China's response to the delegation was cautious yet open, emphasizing the importance of stable U.S.-China relations and the need for constructive engagement from the U.S. Congress [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance, the dollar index rose and then fell, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, economic data in August was lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. However, domestic risk appetite increased overall, and the short - term upward macro - driving force strengthened. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; in the commodity sector, black commodities are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro situation**: Overseas, Fed officials' hawkish signals led to the dollar index rising and then falling, and global risk appetite increasing. Domestically, economic data such as consumption, investment, and industrial added value in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The central bank adheres to its own - centered monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to attract long - term funds into the market. The short - term upward macro - driving force has strengthened, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation [2]. - **Asset trends**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; black commodities are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market rose slightly driven by sectors such as precious metals, consumer electronics, and semiconductors. The economic data in August was lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The short - term upward macro - driving force has strengthened, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation. It is suggested to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. The visit of a US congressional delegation signaled a relaxation of Sino - US relations. The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" proposed to continue production control, and there were rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety. The steel market is likely to be range - bound in the short term [4]. - **Iron ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to rebound on Monday. Steel mills' restocking continued before the National Day holiday, and steel production enthusiasm was high. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume increased. The iron ore price should be treated with a range - bound mindset [4][5]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded after a significant decline. The manganese ore trading slowed down. The开工 rate of silicon manganese enterprises decreased, and the daily output decreased. The price of silicon iron was supported by factors such as electricity prices, and the production reduction space was limited. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to be range - bound [6]. - **Soda ash**: The main soda ash contract was weak on Monday. Supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall supply was still sufficient. Demand was stable week - on - week and improved in the peak season, but the terminal demand support did not change significantly. In the short term, supply and demand will increase, but in the long term, supply - side contradictions will suppress prices [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract was weak on Monday. Glass production was stable, and downstream demand improved slightly in the peak season but with limited growth. The overall glass supply was stable, and demand was difficult to increase significantly. The policy sentiment was volatile, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks had a positive atmosphere. The spot TC of copper concentrate was stable, electrolytic copper production was at a high level, and the impact of recycled copper policy disturbances on production was limited. Future demand may decline marginally, and the upside space is restricted by the US economic slowdown [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fell slightly on Monday. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, non - ferrous metals returned to fundamental trading. The current aluminum fundamentals are weak, with social inventories not decreasing, demand recovering weakly in the peak season, and the spot price lagging behind the futures price [8]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is currently in the off - season of demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The price is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low but rebounded slightly. It was mainly affected by the overhauls of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tight supply of ore, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Terminal demand is weak, but due to the tightening of supply, inventory decreased significantly. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with support from overhaul and peak - season expectations but limited upside space [9]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The main lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 0.05% on Monday. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong peak - season demand, a slight decrease in social inventory, and a transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [10]. - **Industrial silicon**: The main industrial silicon 2511 contract fell 0.83% on Monday. There is no obvious positive factor, and the market is expected to be range - bound [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon 2511 contract fell 3.63% on Monday. The spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have increased, and there are still strong policy expectations. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support of spot prices [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The market is weighing the EU's measures against Russian oil supply and the impact of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. The next - round EU sanctions may target Asian enterprises, but the impact may be limited without stronger measures from the US and Europe. Ukraine's attacks have partially offset the current negative factors. The short - term oil price will continue to be range - bound with a downward bias [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices continue to fall, the upside space for asphalt is limited, and the peak - season demand is passing, with excess pressure remaining. The short - term basis is slightly decreasing, and inventory removal is limited. In the future, as crude oil prices are expected to fall due to OPEC+ production increases, attention should be paid to the extent to which asphalt follows crude oil price movements [13]. - **PX**: The main contract continued to be weakly range - bound following the polyester sector. The previous slight positive factors from low device operating rates and increased overhaul plans have been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has decreased slightly, and PX is still in a tight supply situation. It is expected to be weakly range - bound with some support at the bottom [13]. - **PTA**: There were rumors of joint production cuts by leading PTA factories, but no substantial news was released, and the price fell. Downstream operating rates have decreased, peak - season demand has disappointed, and downstream inventory has increased. However, due to low processing fees, leading devices have increased overhaul plans, providing some support at the previous low. In the short term, with an increase in short positions by funds, the futures price may face downward pressure [14]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Port inventory remained at 46.7 tons with little change, and the expected commissioning of Yulong has strengthened. Downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain low and range - bound. If downstream inventory continues to accumulate, there will be no obvious upward - driving force [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices slightly decreased following the polyester sector. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with limited growth. Short - fiber production has rebounded, leading to a limited increase in inventory. The future upward space may be limited, and it is suggested to consider short positions in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures were strongly range - bound, and the basis was weak. The domestic and imported supply decreased slightly in the short term, and the restart of port MTO units prevented inventory from rising. However, the supply - excess situation remains, and high inventory suppresses prices. In the long term, the possible reduction of imports in October due to Iranian device overhauls may change the supply - demand situation, and there may be opportunities for long positions [15]. - **PP**: The market quotation of PP decreased. The inventory of polyolefins from two major oil companies increased. Device overhauls led to a short - term decrease in production, and downstream demand improved, with raw material inventory starting to rise. However, due to seasonal production increases and new capacity releases, the supply is still abundant, and the market is expected to be weakly range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of peak - season demand [15]. - **LLDPE**: The ex - factory prices of LLDPE from two major oil companies were partially adjusted, and the market price decreased. Device restarts increased supply, and the operating rate of the agricultural film industry increased slowly, with orders growing slower than in previous years. However, low inventory and stable oil prices provide some support. The overall supply - demand situation is pessimistic, and the price is expected to be weakly range - bound [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market adjusted downward. The current urea fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply, weak demand, and differentiated inventory. Supply is increasing as previously overhauled devices resume production. Agricultural demand during the autumn fertilizer - stocking period has limited impact, and industrial demand is still at a low level. Enterprise inventory is accumulating, while port inventory is decreasing. The market is under short - term pressure [17]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT market fell 1.39% overnight. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and other grains dragged down the CBOT corn and soybean futures. However, the downgraded US soybean crop rating provided some support [18]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, with high soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operating rates, and slow inventory digestion. Although the soybean meal market valuation is low, short - term risk appetite is not high, and US soybeans lack clear direction. It is expected that the soybean meal market will stabilize gradually from late September to October, as the overall supply - demand will shrink in the fourth quarter, and the cost support will strengthen. If the USDA adjusts its yield forecast, it may relieve export pressure and increase buying sentiment [19]. - **Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil remains weak, with limited pre - holiday consumption support and continuous release of supply pressure. The market sentiment is cautious. For rapeseed oil, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship has not improved, and the market sentiment is still cautious. During the seasonal peak - sales period, high inventory is being reduced, and there is a strong willingness to support prices. The domestic palm oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the basis price remains low. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil has improved, providing support for futures prices [20]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn in the Northeast is being harvested smoothly, with good quality and high opening prices that are currently stable. The price of new corn in North China continues to fall but at a slower pace, and the supply of old - season corn is tight with a firm price. The corn price in the sales area is stable, and downstream feed mills have low inventory, providing some support. Traders are not willing to store corn, and there is an expectation of price decline during the peak - listing period from mid - October to November. The futures price has strong support due to a large discount to the spot price [20]. - **Pigs**: The pig price has reached a new low this year, and the breeding profit has further shrunk, with some self - breeding and self - raising farms incurring losses. The supply of pigs in the market is still sufficient, and demand is stable. There is limited support at present. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of pork reserve purchases on farmers' price - holding sentiment. With the approaching of the double festivals, there may be inventory - building demand in the short term. It is expected that the pig price will stabilize in the second half of the month, with limited rebound space [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is influenced by the stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The US soybean market is also waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas. [10][13] - The domestic soybean meal market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term, affected by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans, downstream demand, and Sino - US trade relations. [10] - The price of soybeans is affected by factors such as the weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade tariffs, and the supply and demand situation at home and abroad. [11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt The report focuses on the soybean meal market from September 15 - 19, highlighting the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions on the market. [1] 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, and the US soybean market is waiting for further guidance. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term. [13] - The arrival of imported soybeans in September remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased. [10][13] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainty in the weather in US soybean - producing areas. [14] - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in September, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans. [14] Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. [15] - Bearish factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans. [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in some US soybean - producing areas is currently normal, but there are still short - term uncertainties, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Import Cost**: The price of US soybeans is volatile, and the import cost is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be good in the short term, and the oil mill's pressing volume remains high, with a bearish outlook. [9] - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream forward stocking has increased, and the market transaction is expected to increase, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has returned to a medium - high level, and it is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook. [9] 3.5 Position Data The long positions of the main contract in the soybean meal market have increased, but the funds have flowed out, showing a bullish signal. [10] 3.6 Soybean & Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) US Soybean Market The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions. The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the upward space of the market, but the uncertainty of weather and trade relations still affects the market. [33] Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in September has decreased from the high level, but it is still relatively high year - on - year. [36] - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from the high level. [37][39] - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The procurement of the domestic downstream has decreased slightly, but the提货 volume remains high. [45] - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined again, and the profit of pig farming has deteriorated. [47][49][53] Downstream Demand The demand for soybean meal in September is a key factor to watch, but the price is mainly determined by the supply side. [55] 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: The US soybeans are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the soybean meal is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 3100, and short - term range trading is recommended. [17] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options. [19] Soybean - **Futures**: The A2511 contract of soybean is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3800 - 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended. [20] - **Options**: Wait and see. [20] 3.8 Meal Market Structure - The basis of soybean meal has narrowed slightly, and the spot price is relatively stable while the futures price has declined. [58] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has oscillated at a low level. [60] 3.9 Technical Analysis Soybean - The soybean futures are weakly volatile, affected by the US soybean trend and the relatively stable domestic soybean spot price. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a volatile adjustment stage. [65] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom and are in a volatile range, affected by the US soybean and rapeseed meal trends and domestic demand expectations. Technical indicators are also in a volatile adjustment stage. [67] 3.10 Next Week's Concerns - The most important factors are the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China. [70] - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement. [71] - Other important factors include macro - economic factors and international conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts. [71]