1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - PE: Despite a short - term rebound in the PE price driven by the sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices and cost - side disturbances, the improvement in the PE supply - demand fundamentals is limited. There is still supply pressure due to new device production and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, and the demand side remains weak as downstream industries are in the off - season. However, the short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The PP price continues to rebound due to the warming market sentiment, supply reduction expectations, and cost - side support. But there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of upstream device maintenance, and the price rebound space is expected to be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [3] - Strategy: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both LLDPE and PP. Continue to monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance, as the short - term supply - demand contradictions have not been improved, while geopolitical tensions are increasing cost - side disturbances and the strengthening of the coal sector is driving up market sentiment [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,628 yuan/ton (-14), and that of the PP main contract is 6,484 yuan/ton (-2). The LL spot prices in North and East China are 6,520 yuan/ton (+20) and 6,600 yuan/ton (+70) respectively, and the PP spot price in East China is 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North and East China is - 108 yuan/ton (+34) and - 28 yuan/ton (+84) respectively, and the PP basis in East China is - 234 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 263.3 yuan/ton (+88.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 256.7 yuan/ton (+88.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 765.6 yuan/ton (+49.8) [1] - Import and Export: The LL import profit is 21.6 yuan/ton (-179.3), the PP import profit is - 300.5 yuan/ton (-21.3), and the PP export profit is - 34.1 US dollars/ton (-2.6) [1] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.0% (+0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.9% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.2% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The short - term price rebounds, but the supply - demand fundamentals improvement is limited. The supply pressure persists, and the demand side is weak. The short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The price rebounds, but there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of device maintenance, and the price rebound space is limited [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait - and - see for LLDPE and PP. Monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4] - Inter - period: No strategy provided - Inter - variety: No strategy provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Short - term supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is weak, with limited price drivers, and BZ2603 may oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [1] - Short - term styrene price is supported by exports, but there is an inventory build - up expectation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited [1] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is high in January, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken. It is expected to oscillate between 7000 - 7500 in the short term and be considered for low - buying in the medium term [2] - PTA may be affected by inventory build - up in the first quarter, with limited self - driven factors, and will follow raw material fluctuations. It is expected to oscillate between 5000 - 5200 in the short term [2] - MEG has a large inventory build - up expectation in the near term, and its price is under pressure. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting high - selling and low - buying spreads [2] - Short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak, and its absolute price has limited drivers, following raw material fluctuations in the short term [2] - Bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it will follow cost fluctuations in January, with limited processing fee upside [2] Urea - Urea supply is high in the short term, and demand is weak. Without new stimuli, the price may be in a weak oscillation [3] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement volume and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [4] - PVC supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the market may face a decline after reaching a high [4] Polyolefins - LLDPE supply is expected to decrease marginally, and demand is in a seasonal off - season. PP supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to turn to inventory reduction in January, with short - term strength [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded significantly, but the increase is limited due to the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash supply increases, demand is stable, and the overall supply - demand pattern is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [9] - Glass supply decreases, demand weakens seasonally, and the upward space of the market is limited [9] Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asia increases, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The rubber price has fallen from a high, and attention should be paid to Thai raw material conditions [11] Methanol - Methanol futures fell due to certain news, and the MTO industry faces losses. The inland market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand [13] LPG - LPG prices are in a downward trend. The upstream and downstream operating rates show different trends, and inventory changes vary [17] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream prices: Brent crude oil (March) rose 3.4% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; CFR China pure benzene rose 0.3% to 674 dollars/ton [1] - Styrene - related prices: Styrene East China spot price fell 0.1% to 6890 yuan/ton; EB cash flow (non - integrated) fell 7.0% to 348 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream cash flows: Phenol cash flow fell 7.8% to - 1036 yuan/ton; EPS cash flow increased 220.0% to 60 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased 6.0% to 31.80 tons; Styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased 4.7% to 13.23 tons [1] - Operating rates: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased 2.3% to 78.7%; Styrene operating rate decreased 0.7% to 70.2% [1] Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream prices: Brent crude oil (March) rose 3.4% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; CFR China PX fell 1.6% to 886 dollars/ton [2] - Downstream product prices: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 7911 yuan/ton; Polyester bottle - chip price fell 0.3% to 6032 yuan/ton [2] - PX - related spreads: PX - crude oil spread fell 6.2% to 433 dollars/ton; PX - naphtha spread fell 6.0% to 345 dollars/ton [2] - MEG: MEG port inventory decreased 0.7% to 73.0 tons; MEG to - port expectation increased 66.4% to 17.8 tons [2] - Operating rates: Asian PX operating rate increased 1.8% to 80.9%; PTA operating rate increased 10.3% to 78.1% [2] Urea - Futures prices: Urea 01 contract fell 0.77% to 1682 yuan/ton; 05 contract fell 0.78% to 1776 yuan/ton [3] - Spreads: 01 contract - 05 contract spread rose 1.09% to - 91 yuan/ton; UR - MA main contract spread rose 4.62% to - 475 yuan/ton [3] - Upstream raw materials: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) fell 1.11% to 890 yuan/ton; Steam coal port (Qinhuangdao) rose 0.43% to 700 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices: Shandong (small - particle) urea rose 0.57% to 1760 yuan/ton; Shanxi (small - particle) urea fell 0.62% to 1610 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Domestic urea daily output increased 0.55% to 20.06 tons; urea plant - in inventory increased 0.29% to 102.22 tons [3] PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and futures prices: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price remained unchanged at 2150 yuan/ton; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price fell 1.1% to 4650 yuan/ton [4] - Overseas quotes and export profits: FOB Middle - East port caustic soda price fell 1.4% to 365 dollars/ton; PVC export profit fell 118.7% to - 45.3 yuan/ton [4] - Supply: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased 0.2% to 88.7%; PVC total operating rate decreased 0.9% to 75.4% [4] - Demand: Alumina industry operating rate remained unchanged at 79.9%; Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate decreased 3.7% to 36.2% [4] - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda East China plant - in inventory decreased 2.6% to 22.1 tons; PVC total social inventory increased 0.6% to 51.4 tons [4] Polyolefins - Futures prices: L2601 closed at 6410 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; PP2605 closed at 6484 yuan/ton, down 0.03% [6] - Spreads: L15 spread fell 2.83% to - 218 yuan/ton; PP15 spread fell 12.64% to - 196 yuan/ton [6] - Spot prices: East China PP drawstring spot price remained unchanged at 6280 yuan/ton; North China LLDPE spot price rose 0.31% to 6480 yuan/ton [6] - Operating rates: PE device operating rate increased 0.52% to 83.7%; PP device operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.5% [6] - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased 6.66% to 39.5 tons; PP trade - merchant inventory increased 15.52% to 20.5 tons [6] Crude Oil - Oil prices: Brent rose 3.39% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; WTI rose 3.16% to 57.76 dollars/barrel; SC fell 1.60% to 418.00 yuan/barrel [7] - Spreads: Brent M1 - M3 spread rose 37.50% to 0.77 dollars/barrel; WTI - Brent spread rose 6.55% to 4.23 dollars/barrel [7] - Refined oil prices: NYM RBOB rose 3.88% to 176.03 cents/gallon; ICE Gasoil rose 1.46% to 609.25 dollars/ton [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices: North China glass quote rose 0.99% to 1020 yuan/ton; Glass 2601 fell 0.30% to 1013 yuan/ton [9] - Soda ash prices: Northwest soda ash quote rose 2.33% to 880 yuan/ton; Soda ash 2605 fell 2.70% to 1239 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: Soda ash operating rate increased 5.93% to 84.70%; Float - glass daily melting volume decreased 0.92% to 15.01 tons [9] - Inventory: Glass factory inventory decreased 5.69% to 5551.80 tons; Soda ash factory inventory increased 4.25% to 157.25 tons [9] Natural Rubber - Spot prices: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF): Shanghai rose 0.63% to 15850 yuan/ton; Cup rubber: international market: FOB mid - price rose 1.16% to 52.30 Thai baht/kg [11] - Spreads: 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 70 yuan/ton; 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 60 yuan/ton [11] - Production: November Thailand rubber production fell 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons; November China rubber production increased 20.88% to 137.20 thousand tons [11] - Operating rates: Automobile tire: semi - steel tire operating rate decreased 3.46% to 65.89%; Automobile tire: full - steel tire operating rate decreased 0.22% to 58.02% [11] - Inventory: Bonded - area inventory increased 4.48% to 548344 tons; Natural rubber: factory - warehouse futures inventory: SHFE remained unchanged at 57959 tons [11] Methanol - Futures prices: MA2605 closed at 2231 yuan/ton, down 1.59%; MA59 spread fell 120.00% to - 4 yuan/ton [12] - Spreads: Taicang basis fell 600.00% to - 15 yuan/ton; MTO05 on - the - plate fell 13.33% to - 221 yuan/ton [12] - Spot prices: Inner Mongolia north - line spot price remained unchanged at 1848 yuan/ton; Henan Luoyang spot price fell 1.32% to 2058 yuan/ton [12] - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased 5.94% to 44.768 tons; Methanol port inventory increased 4.05% to 153.7 tons [13] - Operating rates: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased 0.54% to 78.09%; Downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate decreased 0.59% to 78.88% [13] LPG - Futures prices: Main PG2602 fell 0.62% to 4199 yuan/ton; PG2603 fell 0.87% to 4103 yuan/ton [17] - Spreads: South China spot - PG02 spread rose 0.77% to 781 yuan/ton [17] - External prices: FEI forward M1 contract fell 1.85% to 503.00 dollars/ton; CP swap M1 contract fell 1.15% to 517.00 dollars/ton [17] - Inventory: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio rose 0.91% to 24.3%; LPG port inventory decreased 8.41% to 214 tons [17] - Operating rates: Upstream - major refinery operating rate remained unchanged at 75.11%; Downstream - PDH operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.1% [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding after previous adjustments and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term. Considering the current pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle with weak demand and reduced supply - side压榨量, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 6, 2026, the opening price of the main soybean oil futures contract (Y.DCE) on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7,868.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,928.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 7,866.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,912.0 yuan/ton, a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 263,014 lots, the trading value was 20.77839 billion yuan, and the latest open interest was 621,847 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 6, 2026, the basis of the main soybean oil futures contract was 518.0 yuan/ton. With the futures closing price at 7,912.0 yuan/ton, the spot price was higher than the futures price, showing a pattern of strong spot and weak futures [5] 3.3影响因素 - **产业资讯**: Affected by the international market, the soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose on January 5, providing some support for domestic soybean oil futures. On January 6, the mainstream reference price of domestic first - grade soybean oil was 8,420 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan increase from the previous working day, with a 0.48% increase. On that day, the oil mill operating rate was about 52.29%. Last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 1.88 million tons, a 220,000 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 100,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. Since January 1, 2026, the pilot policy of verified deduction of input VAT on agricultural products in the soybean oil processing industry has been stopped [6] - **技术分析**: In the past month, the soybean oil futures price showed a pattern of volatile decline followed by a stable rebound. The price was around 8,230 yuan/ton at the beginning of December, then declined to a low of 7,712 yuan/ton on December 19, and gradually stabilized and rebounded. The closing price on January 6 was 7,912 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 2.6% from the previous low, indicating short - term price stabilization [7] 3.4行情展望 - **技术面预期**: After the previous adjustment, the soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term [10] - **基本面展望**: The current market is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle, but the demand is weak and the spot market trading is light. The reduction in the supply - side压榨量 provides some support for prices. Overall, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and then disrupt LPG prices; the overseas LPG market still has support in the near - term [1] - From the perspective of the domestic market valuation, the difference between domestic and foreign prices is high, but the basis is low; the spot is strong, but the feedback of poor PDH profits may appear, and subsequent drivers may be bearish [1] - Follow - up attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, prices of华南液化气,华东液化气,山东液化气,丙烷CFR华南,丙烷CIF日本,CP预测合同价,山东醚后碳四,山东烷基化油,纸面进口利润, and主力基差 changed. For example, the price of华南液化气 increased from 4590 to 4855, and the纸面 import profit increased from - 80 to 234 [1] - On January 8, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of华南液化气 decreased by 10,华东液化气 increased by 10, and山东液化气 decreased by 20, etc. The daily change of the纸面 import profit was 126, and that of the主力基差 was 36 [1] 3.2 Daily Viewpoint - On Thursday, the futures market fluctuated mainly. The 02 - 03 spread was 103 (+18), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 170 (-11). As of 8 p.m., the FEI and CP paper prices were 505.24 and 518.24 US dollars respectively, down 8 and 6 US dollars from the previous trading day [1] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the domestic futures market fluctuated. It soared after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30) [1] - Domestic civil gas prices showed differentiation. The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20); the price in East China was 4376 (-8), and that in South China was 4590 (+80). The overseas market rose; the official price of January CP opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively [1] - Both domestic and foreign markets strengthened, mainly because the overseas market fell on Friday while the domestic market was closed. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane in January were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 month - on - month) [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Cotton Futures Daily Report [1] - Report date: January 6, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: You Zhenqi (Qualification No.: F3012673; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0012990) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the main cotton futures contract CF2605 was 14,855 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [2]. - The intraday high was 14,885 yuan/ton, the low was 14,640 yuan/ton [2]. - The trading volume was 394,098 lots, and the turnover was 2.909 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Spot Market - The basis of the CF2605 contract on the day was 960 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 6.15% [4]. - The spot reference price (Xinjiang 15,450 yuan/ton) was higher than the futures price [4]. - The basis remained unchanged from the previous trading day, maintaining a significant positive structure [4]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - As of December 15, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.349 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 983,900 tons [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (C32S) was reported at 21,240 yuan/ton [5]. - The spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,450 yuan/ton, supporting the stability of the basis [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestic cotton prices are supported by the expectation of tightened supply and the recovery of high - value - added cotton product exports [6]. - However, the high commercial inventory and cautious downstream procurement restrict the upside space [6]. - It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the new import quota regulations and RMB exchange rate changes [6]

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Short-term shock is strong [1] - **Core View**: Recently, glass production lines have successively undergone cold repairs, and the short-term supply contraction has improved the phased supply-demand structure. Coupled with the positive market sentiment, the short-term price may maintain a strong shock. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and the cold repair of production lines [4] Market Review - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened low and moved high, strengthening during the day. The three tracks of the 120-minute Bollinger Bands opened upwards, indicating a short-term continuation of the strong shock signal. The intraday pressure was near the previous high, and the support was near today's low. The trading volume decreased by 248,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 67,492 lots compared to yesterday. The intraday high was 1171, the low was 1136, and the closing price was 1163, up 30 yuan/ton (2.65%) from yesterday's settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The overall production and sales were good. Except for the stable prices in the northwest region, enterprises in other regions raised prices. In North China, the market transaction was good, and manufacturers' psychology of holding prices gradually emerged. In East China, downstream demand replenishment was the main factor, and prices were temporarily stable. In Central China, the transaction was okay, and individual manufacturers in Hubei raised prices. In South China, downstream procurement was appropriate, and the center of gravity moved up [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was -143 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a decrease of 1.32% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year. The average industry start-up rate was 71.96%, a decrease of 1.08% month-on-month; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a decrease of 1.03% month-on-month. The design capacity of the first line in Chenzhou of Hunan Qibin Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. was 1000 tons/day, and it was expected to be water-cooled and repaired today. The design capacity of Yunnan Diankai Energy-saving Technology Co., Ltd. was 520 tons/day, and it stopped feeding last night, and the output is expected to further shrink [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million weight boxes month-on-month, a decrease of 2.37% month-on-month and an increase of 27.04% year-on-year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period. At present, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is showing a downward trend. Most regions are driven by sales policies, the market sentiment has improved, and the production capacity has been reduced, which has boosted the transfer of enterprise inventory to the middle and lower reaches, and there is still a downward expectation in the future [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep-processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and 16.1% year-on-year. At present, engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10-15 days. Home improvement and other types are still mainly low-value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - Supply-side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long-term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke as fuel are also in a loss state, accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity. Six glass production lines were water-cooled and repaired before New Year's Day, and three more production lines were cold-repaired this week, further shrinking the supply. However, real estate development investment and capital availability both continued to decline year-on-year, and completion and new construction were weak, with no improvement in real estate demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for the soda ash industry is fluctuating and bullish [1] Core View of the Report - The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. However, in the short term, boosted by macro news and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a fluctuating and bullish trend. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened lower and moved lower during the day, showing a short - term fluctuating and bullish signal. The upper pressure is near the 60 - week moving average, and the support is near the 40 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 156,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 131,000 lots. The intraday high was 1271, the low was 1222, and the closing price was 1239, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market rose slightly. Enterprise equipment was generally stable with minor adjustments. The output of Boyuan Yingen increased, and industrial supply remained at a high level. Downstream procurement sentiment was average, mostly replenishing on - demand, with low - price transactions being the main form [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 11 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons; heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons or 4.26% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons; heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons. Compared with last Wednesday, it increased by 164,400 tons or 11.67%. Among them, light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 104,300 tons; heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,190 tons or 6.93% [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [3][4] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal increased, leading to an increase in costs [4] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the soda ash production has decreased, but the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output remains at a high level. Before New Year's Day, 6 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and this week, another 3 production lines were shut down, further weakening the rigid demand for soda ash and continuously increasing inventory. However, there is some short - term support under continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Palm Oil - Affected by a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, palm oil futures prices will continue to trade in a range. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are consolidating, with short - term prices holding above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the moving average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can hold above 4,000 ringgit [1]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to the movements of related varieties. Although the purchase of US soybeans by Cofco this week boosted CBOT soybean prices, global soybean supply remains ample, keeping CBOT soybeans under pressure. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period and reduced soybean imports are positive factors, but CBOT soybeans may still correct after a short - term rebound, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces resistance around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - With limited available domestic rapeseed oil in the spot market, the market is closely watching whether COFCO will start operations on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the downside for rapeseed oil in the short term is limited, and the overall trend will be a wide - range shock adjustment [1]. 2.4 Red Dates - Downstream demand is on a need - to - buy basis, with more buyers inspecting goods, but there is no significant improvement in trading volume. Spot prices are weakly stable. Driven by positive sentiment in the commodity market, futures prices rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The generation of new - season warehouse receipts is accelerating. The pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual inventory - reduction progress should be monitored. In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental driver, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 2.5 Corn - In the northeast, corn trading is average, and prices are stable, while in the north port, prices declined slightly due to increased arrivals. In the north China region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is low. However, due to profit losses, plants are not willing to raise prices, so prices are generally stable. On the demand side, low inventory at the north port supports prices, but deep - processing plants' profit losses limit their acceptance of high - priced corn, and feed companies have sufficient inventory. Policy - wise, the targeted auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement market supply but have limited short - term impact. In the short term, the reluctance to sell and downstream restocking support the futures market, but selling pressure and policy - driven supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. 2.6 Sugar - As the Brazilian sugarcane crushing season nears its end, its influence on the raw sugar market is diminishing. The market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is increasing, while Thailand's production is still down year - on - year. In the short term, prices are expected to trade in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, pre - Spring Festival stocking has boosted sales, and December's Guangxi production and sales data met expectations. However, as it is the peak of the sugar - making season, market participants are cautious, and price increases face resistance. Sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level range - bound pattern [8][9]. 2.7 Apples - With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, and the number of trucks arriving at wholesale markets has increased. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption, and competition from other fruits (such as citrus) has put pressure on ordinary apples' inventory. Futures prices have rebounded, and delivery profits have improved. Attention should be paid to inventory - reduction progress [13]. 2.8 Cotton - ICE cotton futures declined due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US cotton - growing areas, rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and an increasing drought index are in line with the winter La Nina weather pattern. USDA export sales have returned to normal levels, and shipments have slowed. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are holding firm on prices, and the basis is strong. The core drivers are the expected reduction in cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking, but low - cost foreign cotton and the off - season demand limit price increases. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to remain bullish, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. 2.9 Eggs - Based on previous chick sales data, the number of laying hens entering the laying period in January is expected to be lower than the number of old hens leaving the flock, potentially reducing the laying - hen inventory and easing supply pressure. After continuous price increases, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced eggs, and all sectors are actively selling. Egg prices in the production areas are mixed. Market circulation is smooth, and inventory levels are low. As the traditional consumption peak approaches, downstream stocking demand is rising, but due to relatively ample supply, the main contract is expected to trade in a low - level range [18]. 2.10 Pigs - Spot pig prices have returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. In the north, pig sales have decreased, but high prices have dampened slaughterhouses' purchasing enthusiasm. In the south, demand has dropped sharply, providing little support for prices. Some second - fattening operations are still buying, but overall enthusiasm is low due to high current prices and weak future expectations. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but pigs are expected to be sold in mid - to - late January, and the overall supply in January is expected to be ample. Futures prices were previously strong due to market sentiment, but the upside is limited, and there will be pressure later [19]. 2.11 Meal - Affected by funds and sentiment, US soybean prices are strong, but the global supply - demand situation remains loose, and the expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress prices. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next Monday for new trading guidance. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, but the expected future tightness supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The expected low arrivals in the first quarter are uncertain due to auctions and arrival schedules. The downside for soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. In the short term, with positive macro sentiment, the futures market will be range - bound and bullish [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data 3.1.1 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (Y2605) was 7,958 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day, and the basis was 502 yuan, down 8.39% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (P2605) was 8,562 yuan, up 0.73%, and the basis was 8 yuan, down 88.57%. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for May was 8,930 yuan, down 0.18%, and the import profit was - 368 yuan, up 17.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (OI605) was 9,130 yuan, down 0.38%, and the basis was 802 yuan, up 4.55% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread for the three oils was 150 yuan, up 8.70%; for palm oil, it was 110 yuan, down 6.78%; for rapeseed oil, it was 14 yuan, down 73.08%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 110 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 2.72%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,440 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 6.65% [1]. 3.1.2 Red Dates - On January 8, the price of the main contract (2605) was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 1.95%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 35.71%, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The basis for Cangzhou's top - grade red dates was - 75 yuan/ton, up 60%. The total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,008, up 1.72% [2]. 3.1.3 Corn - The price of the March 2026 corn contract (2603) was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The basis was 72 yuan, down 30.10%. The 3 - 7 spread was - 36 yuan, up 21.74%. The north - south trading profit was - 21 yuan, down 31.25%, and the import profit was 267 yuan, up 3.71% [5]. 3.1.4 Sugar - The May 2026 sugar futures price (2605) was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, up 25%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the basis was 69 yuan, down 14.81%. Nationwide, the cumulative sugar production was 105 million tons, down 23.24%, and the cumulative sales were 35 million tons, down 42.53% [8]. 3.1.5 Apples - The price of the main contract (2605) was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The 5 - 10 spread was 1,109 yuan, up 2.40%. The basis was - 1,383 yuan, up 2.19%. The total number of trucks arriving at three major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 million tons, down 1.41% [10]. 3.1.6 Cotton - The May 2026 cotton futures price (2605) was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 190 yuan, down 2.70%. The Xinjiang ex - factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, up 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 million tons, up 4.7% [16]. 3.1.7 Eggs - The March 2026 egg futures price (03) was 3,011 yuan/500 kg, up 0.37%. The basis was 86 yuan/500 kg, up 69.26%. The 3 - 4 spread was - 253 yuan, down 1.20%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged, and the price of culled hens was 3.95 yuan per catty, up 2.07% [18]. 3.1.8 Pigs - The price of the May 2026 pig futures contract (2605) was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The basis of the main contract was 1,215 yuan, up 6.58%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 475 yuan, down 6.74%. The spot price in Henan was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The self - breeding profit per pig was - 35 yuan, up 73.41%, and the number of fertile sows was 3,990 million heads, down 1.12% [19]. 3.1.9 Meal - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,120 yuan, up 0.65%. The May 2026 futures price (M2605) was 2,811 yuan, up 1.26%, and the basis was 300 yuan, down 4.63%. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 157 yuan, up 45.4%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 2.05%, and the May 2026 futures price (RM2605) was 2,419 yuan, up 1.21% [21].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, the inland market has bottomed out, and the port is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for large - scale inventory reduction is high MTO operation. Currently, MTO profit is average, which suppresses the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Short - term shipments may remain normal. Attention should also be paid to changes in oil prices. The current limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors, and if oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling [2] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for the 09 contract is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas market in Europe and the US is stable, as is Southeast Asia. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price spreads are oscillating, with LD weakening. The number of September maintenance is the same as the previous period. Recently, the domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [7] - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the middle - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and US markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is oscillating, and the powder production operation rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] - For PVC, the basis is maintained at - 270 for the 01 contract, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly decreased. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price data includes various spot prices (e.g., Jiangsu, South China, Lunan, etc.), CFR prices, import profit, and主力基差. There are also daily changes in prices. For example, the South China spot price increased by 10, and the Northwest discounted price decreased by 7 [2] Polyethylene - Price and inventory data for different regions and types of polyethylene, such as Northeast Asian ethylene, North China LL, East China LL, etc. The daily change in the North China LL price is 80, and the two - oil inventory increased by 216. The overall inventory situation is as described in the core views [7] Polypropylene - Price data including Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, East China PP, etc. The daily change in East China PP price is 60, and the主力期货 price increased by 63. The inventory and valuation situations are as described in the core views [7] PVC - Price and profit - related data such as Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, different production - method prices in different regions, import and export profits, etc. The daily change in Northwest calcium carbide price is 50, and the East China calcium carbide - based price increased by 70. The basis, inventory, and other situations are as described in the core views [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market showed mixed trends this week. The internal market fluctuated, with prices rising on Wednesday due to the high - opening of CP and then falling back. The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected. Overall, the Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and disturb LPG prices. The overseas LPG market has near - term support. The internal valuation is high relative to the external, but the basis is low. The feedback of strong spot but poor PDH profits may emerge, and subsequent drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1] Summary by Directory Daily Situation - On Wednesday, the LPG futures market remained strong, possibly due to the rising prices of the LPG external market and downstream products. The 02 - 03 spread was 83 (-11), and the 03 - 04 spread was -165 (+20). As of 8 pm, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 513.25 and 524.25 US dollars respectively, down 3.5 and 1.5 US dollars from the previous trading day [1] Weekly Situation - This week, the internal market fluctuated. On Wednesday, it soared after the high - opening of CP and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was -184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30). Domestic civil gas prices were divided. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20); prices in East China were 4376 (-8), and in South China were 4590 (+80). The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively. The internal and external prices strengthened mainly because the external market fell on Friday while the internal market was closed. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival - at - shore premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the 1 - month FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -15 (down 5.5 month - on - month) [1]