券研究报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 / 2025.07.09 "破局"通胀:反内卷与扩内需 应锈钢(分析师) 021-38676666 2025年6月物价数据点评 本报告导读: 贺媛(分析师) 今年以来,"以旧换新"补贴政策持续支撑耐用消费品价格,带动核心 CPI 同比小幅 021-38676666 修复,而其中服务价格方面仍有待提振,指向了居民部门资产负债表的修复进展有 登记编号 S0880525040129 限,需要后续稳增长政策接续。 梁中华(分析师) 投资要点: 02 -38676666 Q 6月 CPI 同比转正。食品价格拖累减弱;国际油价上涨输入带动能 登记编号 S0880525040019 源价格;核心 CPI 环比持平,核心消费品 CPI 环比表现显著好于 2023、2024年,"618"提前促销影响过去后,"以旧换新"政策支持 的相关品类价格仍相对偏强,而服务相关价格继续稳中偏弱。 6月 PPI 同比跌幅继续扩张,一是受高温降雨天气影响,房地产、 o 基建项目施工进度有所放缓。二是"反内卷"具体政策和效果仍待 观察,尤其是对光伏、水泥、钢铁等行业实际供需格局的影响。三 观去 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with the cost side supporting the spot price. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increased inventory. Due to the support of the macro - environment, the industry outlook remains positive. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The long - term industry outlook and the firm cost side may provide some support for the cast aluminum price. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,515 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract position is 250,099 lots, down 19,098 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 16,703 lots, up 2,441 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, down 0.05 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the main contract position is 248,656 lots; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts are 8,225 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 19,830 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract position is 8,571 lots, down 114 lots [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,660 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the alumina basis is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The alumina production is 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the alumina import volume is 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the alumina export volume is 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 15,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons; the export volume is 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Aluminum Production and Trade**: The primary aluminum import volume is 223,095.59 tons, down 27,381.21 tons; the export volume is 32,094.07 tons, up 18,421.29 tons; the aluminum product production is 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. - **Capacity and Utilization**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate is 97.68%, up 0.03% [2]. Downstream and Application - **Automobile and Real Estate**: The automobile production is 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 8.08%, down 1.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.10%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.28%, down 0.0041; the call - put ratio is 1.15, up 0.0349 [2]. Industry News - In June, the production and retail of passenger cars reached 2.419 million and 2.084 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 18.1%. Among them, the production and retail of new energy vehicles reached 1.2 million and 1.111 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 28.3% and 29.7% [2]. - From January to June, the production and retail of passenger cars reached 13.246 million and 10.901 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.5% and 10.8%. Among them, the production and retail of new energy vehicles reached 6.457 million and 5.468 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 38.7% and 33.3% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper are currently in a state where supply is boosted, but demand is still weak. However, due to the support of the macro - environment, the industry is expected to operate favorably. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,400 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,611.50 dollars/ton, down 179 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 193,999 lots, down 13,383 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 9,545 lots, down 5,230 lots. The LME copper inventory is 102,500 tons, up 5,100 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper is 84,589 tons, up 3,039 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 37,100 tons, up 225 tons; the SHFE warrants of cathode copper are 21,336 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,190 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,255 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 28.50 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 790 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is 51.31 dollars/ton, down 28.49 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 44.25 dollars/thousand tons, up 0.56 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 70,110 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 70,810 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,990 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,039.86 billion yuan, up 631.69 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235,000 thousand pieces, up 68,000 thousand pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.25%, up 1.31 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.33%, up 0.78 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 10.86%, down 0.0038 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.49, up 0.0312 [2]. Industry News - From January to June, policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continued to show effects. The year - on - year CPI changed from a decline to a 0.1% increase; the month - on - month decrease was 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices continued to rise, up 0.7%. The month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.4%, the same as last month; the year - on - year decrease was 3.6%, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points. Trump announced that tariffs would start on August 1st, with a 50% tariff on imported copper and up to 200% on drugs. He also mentioned possible tariffs on semiconductors. Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with the Director - General of the WTO and stated that China has the resources and means to hedge against external adverse effects. In June, the production and retail of passenger cars increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicles showing more significant growth. By 2035, about 32% of global semiconductor production may be affected by climate - change - related copper supply disruptions [2].

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year after four months of negative growth, influenced by the recovery of industrial product prices [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high, indicating effective policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption [1][3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, which is an increase in the rate of decline by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - The decline in PPI is attributed to seasonal price decreases in domestic raw material manufacturing, increased green electricity leading to lower energy prices, and price pressures in export-oriented industries [5][6] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive sector, prices for both gasoline and new energy vehicle manufacturing increased by 0.5% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The photovoltaic equipment and electronic components manufacturing prices fell by 10.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points [1] - High-tech industries such as integrated circuit packaging and testing saw price increases of 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a growth in new production capacities and innovation [6] Group 4: Policy Implications - The government aims to balance the expansion of domestic demand with supply-side structural reforms to improve market price order and promote reasonable price recovery [7][8] - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, particularly those supporting the real estate sector, will significantly influence future industrial product price trends [6]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Trends - The central government is reinforcing "anti-involution" policies to address low nominal economic growth and persistent negative PPI, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and overcapacity[1] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was 74.10% at the end of Q1 2025, significantly below the historical average of 7.1% since 2018[16] - The PPI growth rate for coal mining and washing, general equipment, specialized equipment, automotive, and pharmaceuticals is at historically low levels, indicating potential "involution" issues in these sectors[17] Group 2: Industry Impact and Investment Opportunities - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" measures include coal mining, chemical raw materials, non-metallic minerals, and automotive manufacturing, which are expected to undergo significant policy scrutiny[17] - Recent price recovery in coal, rebar, and polysilicon suggests that the market has priced in expectations of "anti-involution" policies, presenting potential investment opportunities if policies align with market expectations[28] - If "anti-involution" policies fall short, there is a risk of price corrections in these industries, necessitating caution for investors[28] Group 3: Risks and Economic Challenges - The report highlights external uncertainties, including global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could exacerbate economic challenges[4] - The need for coordinated demand expansion policies alongside supply-side reforms is emphasized to mitigate potential structural pain in industrial production and employment[27] - The real estate sector is undergoing significant adjustments, impacting overall investment momentum and economic growth prospects[27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the domestic focus on "anti-involution" and the international attention on the US "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is expected to improve market expectations and alleviate recession concerns [1][4] - In China, major industries such as photovoltaic glass and cement are implementing production cuts and policy measures to stabilize growth and promote high-quality development [1] - The US "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to positively impact economic growth in 2026 and 2027, with a deficit rate increase of over 1 percentage point compared to a scenario without the bill [1] Group 2 - The June PMI data indicates an improvement in market demand, with manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, while the service sector PMI slightly decreased to 50.1% [1] - The construction sector shows significant activity, with the construction PMI rising to 52.8%, reflecting a 1.8 percentage point increase from May [1][2] - Employment data from the US shows a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 in June, surpassing market expectations, which may reduce the necessity for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Group 3 - The current economic environment presents a favorable outlook for A-shares, with improving supply-demand dynamics, easing US-China tariff issues, and positive market sentiment leading to the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3500 points [6] - A recommended investment strategy includes a "dividend + technology" approach, focusing on dividend sectors like coal and consumption, alongside technology growth sectors such as semiconductor equipment and innovative pharmaceuticals [7]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still within a downward trend [1] - The production and new orders indices are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production and improved demand [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion above the critical point [1] Group 2 - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in the sector [1] - The service industry business activity index is at 50.1%, indicating stable conditions, with some sectors experiencing rapid growth while others show weakened activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated expansion in production and business activities [1] Group 3 - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggests increasing regulatory intensity and maintaining ample liquidity to support key sectors [1] - The central bank announced a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan, continuing excess renewals for four consecutive months [1] - The monetary policy in the second half of the year is expected to focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with MLF likely to continue increasing [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond price is steadily recovering, and the convertible bond index outperforms the equity index. The convertible bond market and equity market declined due to Trump's tariff hikes but gradually recovered. Multiple industries and individual bonds saw price increases, and the convertible bond valuation is differentiated with the overall conversion premium rate decreasing [3][103]. - The issuance pace of convertible bonds has slowed down, and the net financing amount is at a relatively low level. The pre - issuance scale varies among different industries, with the high - end manufacturing industry having a relatively large pre - issuance scale. The un - converted balance of convertible bonds also shows significant differences among industries [3][103]. - The tariff disturbance is coming to an end, and the negative impact of tariffs on the convertible bond market will fade. The US is facing inflation pressure, and it has started economic and trade consultations with many countries, so high tariffs are expected to be unsustainable [3][76][103]. - Policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption are frequently introduced. As the policy effects continue to emerge, the upward trend of relevant convertible bonds is expected to continue. The growth rate of necessary consumption is constantly recovering, and the "trade - in" policy promotes the consumption growth of household appliances and communication equipment [4][104]. - The profitability of multiple underlying stock industries has improved, and the net profit of individual bonds has increased, further enhancing the intrinsic value of convertible bonds. Most underlying stock industries have positive median net profit growth rates both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year [6][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bonds: Price Steadily Recovering, Individual Bond Valuation Volatility and Differentiation - **The convertible bond and equity indexes first declined and then rose, and the bond yield fluctuated downward**: Affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff", the domestic equity market declined in the second quarter and then gradually recovered. The bond market yield showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy [10][11]. - **The convertible bond and equity indexes are highly correlated, and the convertible bond index outperforms the equity index**: The convertible bond market index and the equity market index have a similar trend, and the convertible bond index has a higher return rate. The convertible bond index also shows a certain correlation with the bond yield [15][16]. - **Multiple convertible bond industries rose, and the rise - fall direction is consistent with that of the underlying stocks**: Most convertible bond industries showed an upward trend, and the rise - fall amplitude of convertible bond industries was relatively less differentiated compared to that of underlying stock industries [22]. - **Most individual bond prices rose, and the proportion of rising bonds in many industries exceeded half**: Most convertible bonds rose compared to the previous quarter. In different industries, the number of rising convertible bonds was large, and the price fluctuations of individual convertible bonds were relatively large [25]. - **The convertible bond valuation is differentiated, and the overall conversion premium rate is decreasing**: The conversion premium rate of most individual bonds is decreasing, and there is no significant correlation between the conversion premium rate and the bond balance. The different quantiles of the conversion premium rate of individual bonds have all decreased [29]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Net Financing is at a Low Level, and the Supply Pace is Slowing Down - **The issuance of convertible bonds has slowed down, and the net financing is at a low level in the same period**: The issuance scale of convertible bonds has decreased, and the net financing amount is at a low level. The maturity scale of convertible bonds is relatively stable and at a low level [35]. - **The pre - issuance of different industries is differentiated, and the high - end manufacturing industry has a large scale**: The pre - issuance scale of convertible bonds is relatively sufficient, and there are significant differences among different industries. The high - end manufacturing industry has a relatively high pre - issuance scale [37]. - **The proportion of un - converted balance of convertible bonds is relatively high, and there are significant industry differences**: Most convertible bonds still have a relatively high balance. The proportion of the convertible bond balance to the initial issuance scale varies greatly among different industries [38]. 3.3 Tariff Disturbance is Approaching the End, and the External Negative Impact on the Convertible Bond Market is Fading - **Trump imposed tariffs randomly, covering goods from multiple countries and multiple fields**: Trump's government imposed several rounds of tariffs on goods exported to the US in 2025, involving goods from multiple countries and a wide range of products [43]. - **Tariffs impacted the equity and convertible bond indexes to decline and then gradually recovered steadily**: Trump's tariff hikes caused a sharp decline in the US equity market index, an increase in the demand for bond hedging, and a decrease in the US Treasury bond yield. As the tariffs eased, the US stock index gradually recovered, and the US Treasury bond yield gradually rebounded. In China, the A - share market, Treasury bond yield, and convertible bond market index also declined due to tariff impacts but gradually recovered [48][49][52]. - **Exports increased against the trend, and the impact of tariffs on investment and consumption has not yet appeared**: In terms of trade, the export growth rate continued to increase, and the import growth rate continued to improve. In terms of production, the growth rate of industrial added value was not significantly affected by tariffs, but the manufacturing PMI was significantly affected. In terms of investment, the impact of tariffs on fixed - asset investment and its main components has not yet appeared. The consumption growth rate increased marginally, and the consumer and producer price indexes decreased marginally [56][60][62]. - **Tariffs are unsustainable, and the external impact on the convertible bond market is expected to fade**: Trump's tariff hikes are likely a means to expand revenue, and the impact of tariffs in the first half of the year is expected to gradually subside. The US is facing inflation pressure, and high tariffs may prevent prices from falling. The US has conducted consultations on economic and trade issues with many countries, so high tariffs are not expected to last [76][77]. 3.4 Policies to Promote Consumption are Continuously Advancing, and the Upward Trend of Relevant Convertible Bonds is Expected to Continue - **Favorable policies to promote consumption are frequently introduced, and the recovery progress of necessary consumption is accelerating**: A series of favorable policies and specific measures to promote consumption have been introduced, and the support for consumption is extensive. The recovery progress of necessary consumption has accelerated, and the "trade - in" policy has promoted the consumption growth of household appliances and communication equipment [78][81][86]. - **The convertible bond consumption sector as a whole rose, and the rise - fall of individual bonds is differentiated**: Benefiting from the multiple favorable policies to promote consumption, the prices of convertible bonds in consumption - related fields generally increased, but the rise - fall of individual bonds was differentiated [90]. - **The "trade - in" policy continues to advance, and attention should be paid to the over - heating risk of new consumption**: The favorable policies to promote consumption are still advancing, and it is expected that consumption will remain an important engine for economic growth in the second half of the year. The continuous advancement of the "trade - in" policy is expected to continue to benefit the convertible bonds in related consumption fields. Attention should be paid to new consumption formats such as self - pleasing consumption and the "gacha economy", but the short - term over - heating risk should be noted [93][94][95]. 3.5 The Performance of Underlying Stocks has Improved, and the Intrinsic Value of Convertible Bonds may be Further Enhanced - **The net profit of underlying stock industries has achieved positive growth, and the net profit of individual bond underlying stocks has improved overall**: Most underlying stock industries have positive median net profit growth rates both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The net profit of individual bond underlying stocks has improved comprehensively compared to the previous quarter [96][99]. - **Most underlying stocks have positive net profit growth, and their performance is moderate compared to listed companies in the same industry**: Compared with listed companies in the same industry that have not issued convertible bonds, the net profit growth rate of convertible bond underlying stocks is moderate. The net profit growth rate of convertible bond underlying stocks is differentiated, and in some industries, most underlying stocks have positive net profit growth rates [101]. 3.6 Convertible Bond Strategy: It is Recommended to Focus on Convertible Bonds for Expanding Domestic Demand, High Dividends, and High Growth - It is recommended to focus on the following main lines in the convertible bond market: expanding domestic demand, especially in the fields related to boosting consumption; high - dividend sectors such as banks; and individual bonds with high - growth underlying stocks [6][106].

Core Insights - The light industry in China is showing a steady recovery, with significant growth in revenue and profit during the first five months of the year [1][2] Group 1: Economic Performance - From January to May, large-scale light industry enterprises achieved operating income of 9.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] - Profit reached 531.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] - The overall economic operation of the light industry continues to show a trend of steady progress [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Expansion - Domestic consumption demand has been steadily released, with retail sales of 11 categories of light industry goods reaching 3.5136 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first four months [1] - In the home appliance sector, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 30.2%, maintaining double-digit growth since September of the previous year [1] - The added value of the home appliance industry increased by 6.9%, with production volumes for washing machines, water dispensers, and air conditioners growing by 9.3%, 7.9%, and 5.9% respectively [1] - The operating income of the home appliance manufacturing industry grew by 6.0% [1] Group 3: Export Performance - Light industry exports totaled 373.21 billion USD from January to May, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.5% despite facing pressure [1] - Out of 21 major categories in the light industry, 10 categories experienced a year-on-year increase in export value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" as a key macroeconomic policy in China, especially under the dual challenges of stabilizing growth and external pressures. It advocates for a combination of short-term stimulus measures and long-term structural reforms to enhance consumer capacity and confidence [1][2]. Summary by Sections Historical Consumption Promotion Toolbox - China's past consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies and indirect support measures. Direct measures include subsidies for rural areas, "trade-in" subsidies, and consumption vouchers, while indirect measures involve tax reductions and fee exemptions [3]. - Significant past initiatives include the "home appliance and motorcycle to the countryside" policies from 2007 to 2012, and various tax incentives for automobile purchases from 2014 to 2017 [3][4]. Effectiveness of Consumption Promotion Policies - The first round of home appliance and motorcycle policies resulted in substantial sales growth, with a reported sales revenue of 6,597.6 billion yuan against a subsidy expenditure of 765 billion yuan, yielding a fiscal multiplier of 8.6 [6]. - The policies led to a notable increase in the ownership of home appliances in rural areas, with refrigerator and air conditioner ownership rising significantly during the implementation period [6][7]. Current Consumption Promotion Measures - The recent "trade-in" policy has shown significant results, with a 39% year-on-year increase in sales of home appliances in December 2024 following the policy's implementation [9]. - Service consumption recovery remains a challenge, with current levels still below pre-2019 trends. The article suggests expanding consumption promotion policies to include service sectors to stimulate recovery [10]. Long-term Mechanisms for Consumption Growth - To sustain consumption growth, it is essential to focus on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents. This includes improving pension levels and implementing targeted subsidies for key demographics such as the elderly and children [11][12]. - The article highlights the need for a policy framework that combines short-term effectiveness with long-term structural reforms, particularly in income distribution and social security systems, to transition from "policy-driven consumption" to "endogenous growth-driven consumption" [13].