Core Insights - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry in 2024 is positive, with over 70% of companies reporting revenue growth and nearly 90% achieving profitability [1] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is increasing, driven by rising gold prices and a significant upward shift in the prices of traditional industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc [1][2] - Companies are actively expanding their resource reserves and production capacity through acquisitions and exploration [2] Industry Performance - As of April 27, 2024, 124 non-ferrous metal companies have released their annual reports, showing a comprehensive index of industry prosperity on the rise [1] - The average annual prices for copper and lead have reached their highest levels in five years [1] Company Highlights - China Aluminum Corporation reported a revenue of 237.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% [1] - Zijin Mining Group achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan, a 3.49% increase, and a net profit of 32.051 billion yuan, up 51.76% [2] - Jinhui Mining reported a revenue of 1.539 billion yuan, a 19.97% increase, and a net profit of 477 million yuan, up 39.06% [1] Strategic Moves - Companies are accelerating resource acquisition and capacity expansion, with Jinhui Mining successfully bidding for mining rights and establishing new subsidiaries [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group completed a 70% acquisition of China Railway Construction Copper Crown Investment Co., enhancing its resource reserves and production capabilities [2] Future Outlook - Experts predict that non-ferrous metal prices will remain high into 2025, sustaining a high level of industry prosperity [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in copper prices due to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper prices rising by 2.98% in the US, 2.55% in London, and 1.71% in Shanghai. The report notes that the largest copper mine in Peru, Antamina, has halted operations due to an accident, impacting supply. The copper rod operating rate increased to 79.56%, and social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 22.15% to 181,700 tons [4][3] - Aluminum prices are rising as domestic inventory decreases, with alumina prices stabilizing after maintenance cuts. The report indicates that electrolytic aluminum margins have improved, suggesting a potential shortage in supply this year [4][3] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to demand growth not meeting expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and a downward trend in prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic conditions, noting that initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.50% [13] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 2.55% and Shanghai copper up 1.71%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 31.97% [28] 2.2. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum increasing by 3.25% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.29%. The report notes a rise in aluminum processing margins [37] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - Lead and zinc prices saw increases, with lead prices up 2.72% and zinc prices up 3.48%. The report indicates improved profitability for mining companies [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased, with London tin up 5.04%. Nickel prices also saw slight increases, but profitability for nickel enterprises has narrowed [63] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are declining, with carbonate lithium down 2.31% to 69,800 yuan/ton. The report highlights the need for monitoring supply-side adjustments [79] 3.2. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased, with domestic cobalt prices at 238,000 yuan/ton. The report notes a decline in profitability for domestic smelting plants [89]

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue of 39.345 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.40% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 807 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38.88% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.25 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 245 million yuan, which accounts for 30.39% of the net profit [1] Group 2 - The company has been leading the advancement of domestic lead smelting technology and is recognized for its international leading position in this field [2] - The company has developed several core technologies, including oxygen bottom-blown oxidation and liquid high-lead slag direct reduction for lead smelting [2] - The company aims to create a "first-class non-ferrous metal new materials high-tech industrial group" and is focused on accelerating its transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [2]

| | 20250425申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 短期可能宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能宽幅区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能宽幅震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价 ，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 | | | 铜 | 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 | 短期可能宽 | | | 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨超1%。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 | | | 锌 | 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落 | 可能宽幅区 间波动 | | | 已部分消化产量增长预期。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价冲高回落，主力期价由昨日的 7.8 万一线回落至 7.7 万 一线。短期铜价已修复至 2 月的水平，精废价差有所走阔，产业支撑 较强但推动意愿会有所下降。美元指数大幅下挫后迎来反弹，一定 程度上也将抑制铜价上涨。短期关注 5 日均线支撑，预计期价将趋于 震荡运行。 沪铝 今日铝价围绕 1.99 万一线窄幅震荡。Mysteel 报道，华东现货市 场表现弱稳运行，铝价涨至近期高位，基差延续下调，持货商挺价控 制节奏 ...

4月6—14日，中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长兼秘书长段德炳率团赴中东、北非调 研，与埃及、阿联酋、阿曼3个国家的有关政府部门、商会、园区以及企业进行高层会谈，并 实地调研相关自贸区及生产、建设企业。 调研期间，段德炳一行分别与埃及中华总会会长王培中、中非泰达投资股份有限公司（泰达园区） 总经理魏建青、埃及贸工部公使衔参赞Adel Zahran博士、埃及苏伊士运河经济特区管理局投资推 广总经理NADER KAMEL、埃及伊斯梅利亚公共自贸区副总经理Khaled、沙特国际电力和水务公 司(ACWA Power)项目执行办公室供应链负责人吴志华、江苏海外投资有限公司（中阿产能合作示 范园）副总经理龚建中、阿曼联合太阳能多晶硅有限公司（USP）董事长张龙根、阿曼投资局首席 执行官Nasser AlKindi等进行了深入交流座谈。 有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长兼秘书长段德炳 与埃及中华总会会长王培中座谈 中 国 段德炳一行与泰达园区相关负责人座谈 段德炳一行与埃及贸工部相关负责人座谈 段德炳一行与埃及苏伊士运河经济特区管理局相关负责人座谈 段德炳一行与埃及伊斯梅利亚公共自贸区相关负责人座谈 段德炳一行与AC ...

报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 | | 20250415申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期建议观望 | | | | 镍： 可能短期震荡运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价小幅收低，美国关税政策前景不明。目前精矿加工费总体低位 | | | | 以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体 | | | 铜 | 稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变 | 可能短期宽 | | | 化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期 可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税后期进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基 | 幅波动 | | | 差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低，美国关税政策前景不明。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由 | | | | 国家统计局数据来看，国内汽车产销正增长，基 ...

| | 20250414申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 铜： | | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 锌： | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 可能短期震荡运行 | | | | 镍： 可能短期震荡运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收涨，美国关税出现反复。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及 | | | | 低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定 | | | | 向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽 | 幅波动 | | | 幅波动，关注美国关税后期进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变 | | | | 化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨，美国关税出现反复。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由 | | | | 国家统计局数据来看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良 | | | 锌 | 好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市场预期2025年精矿供应明显改善，供应 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 高盛将黄金2025年底的价格上调至每盎司3300美元，近期黄金、铜等有色金属 价格节节攀升，原因何在？前景如何？ 当前铜期货价格大涨而A股中的铜股 票涨幅有限的内在逻辑又在哪里？ 高盛将2025年黄金价格大幅上调至 3300美元， 全球央行"囤金潮"持续加码 近期黄金、铜等有色金属价格节节攀升，引发市场广泛关注。高盛又添一把火， 今天（ 3月27日） 将 2025年底的 黄金价格 基线预测，从之前的3100美元/ 盎司上调至3300美元 /盎司 ， 主要基于以下四方 面 的 原因： 一是全球央行"囤金潮"持续加码。各国央行正以每月70吨的速度增持黄金，较之前50吨提速40%。尤其 亚洲大型央行（如中国）计划未来3—6年持续购买黄金，目标是将黄金储备占比从当前8%提升至20% —30%。仅中国要达到20%的储备目标，就需保持每月40吨购金量持续三年方能实现。 二是ETF资金涌入超预期。黄金ETF资金流入量已恢复至2020年疫情时期水平，如果维持此趋势，可能 将金价推升至3680美元。当前投资者正将黄金视为"升级版比特币"，既对冲风险又追逐收益。 三是政策环境双重催化。一方面，美联储预 ...