Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced initial fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining over 1% and the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.7% [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 18.68%, ranking among the top global indices [1] - Southbound capital has contributed significantly to the Hong Kong stock market, with a total net inflow of 731.19 billion HKD in the first half of the year, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The participation of southbound capital in the Hong Kong stock market has increased notably, with its trading volume proportion rising from 2.98% in 2015 to 34.63% in 2024, and reaching 43.12% in the first five months of this year [1]

Core Insights - The QDII fund market has seen significant growth, with a total scale of 582.37 billion and 312 products as of June 30, 2025, driven by domestic investors' increasing demand for overseas asset allocation [1] - There is a notable performance divergence among QDII funds in the first half of 2025, with Hong Kong and global pharmaceutical theme funds leading the performance rankings, while Southeast Asian technology, oil, and related regional theme products faced adjustment pressures [1][5] Performance Summary Top Performing QDII Funds - The top ten QDII funds in terms of returns are all focused on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, with the leading fund, 汇资高香港优势精选A, achieving a return of 86.48% [2][3] - Other notable performers include 广发中证香港创新药ETF with a 57.12% return and 华泰柏瑞恒生创新药ETF with a 56.94% return [2][3] - Smaller funds also showed strong performance, such as 工银新经济人民币 with a return of 52.92% despite a small scale of 0.45 billion [3] Underperforming QDII Funds - The bottom ten QDII funds primarily consist of Southeast Asian technology ETFs, with 华泰相瑞商力乐央新交所之东南亚科技ETF experiencing a decline of 11.66% [4][5] - Oil-themed funds also faced pressure, with 易方达原油A人民币 and 南方原油A both showing declines exceeding 5% [5] - Regional theme funds showed significant divergence, with two Saudi Arabian ETFs declining over 7%, indicating pressure from sovereign fund reductions [6] Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the Hong Kong market still offers investment value, with a focus on high-quality companies that can withstand economic cycles and dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [6] - There is an expectation of continued foreign capital inflow into Chinese assets as corporate earnings recover, supported by improved fundamentals and market share gains [6]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.5%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.0% [1] - Large-cap stocks (Hang Seng Large Cap -1.4%) outperformed small-cap stocks (Hang Seng Small Cap -2.0%) and mid-cap stocks (Hang Seng Mid Cap -3.3%) [1] - Concept indices mostly declined, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index dropping by 8.8% and the Hang Seng Consumer Index falling by 4.3% [1] - Among the Hong Kong Stock Connect sectors, 2 sectors increased while 28 sectors decreased, with notable declines in the pharmaceutical sector (-7.5%) and defense industry (-5.7%) [1] Fund Flow - Overall, there was a continuous outflow of funds from Hong Kong Stock Connect constituents, with an average daily fund intensity of -580 million HKD, compared to -800 million HKD the previous week [2] - In terms of sector performance, 8 sectors saw fund inflows while 21 sectors experienced outflows, with the mechanical sector attracting +130 million HKD per day and the pharmaceutical sector losing -340 million HKD per day [2] Earnings Forecast - The overall EPS forecast for Hong Kong Stock Connect was revised upward by 0.1%, following a 0.8% increase the previous week [3] - 19 sectors had their EPS forecasts raised, with significant increases in the steel sector (+2.1%) and agriculture (+1.9%), while 8 sectors saw downward revisions, particularly in transportation (-1.1%) and machinery (-0.4%) [3]

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant pullback this week due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Hong Kong dollar approaching the weak side guarantee, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index declining by -1.70%, -1.52%, and -2.03% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors saw declines, with the healthcare sector experiencing a substantial drop of nearly 8%, the largest among all sectors, while only the information technology sector saw a slight increase of 0.2% [3][13] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index rose to 72%, exceeding the 5-year average [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment indicates that economic activity data for May continued to weaken, with consumption performance exceeding expectations mainly due to shopping festival timing and subsidies, raising questions about sustainability [3][48] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate, aligning with expectations, but conveyed a hawkish tone emphasizing the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [3][46] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][48] - It also highlights the importance of low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent and benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [3][48] Group 4: Buyback Statistics - The buyback market showed improvement this week, with 55 companies participating, up from 53 the previous week, and total buyback amounts reaching 6.61 billion HKD, a significant increase from 3.96 billion HKD last week [3][27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with 2.5 billion HKD, followed by Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) with 1.57 billion HKD, and AIA Group (1299.HK) with 1.15 billion HKD [3][27] Group 5: Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buying companies through the Southbound Stock Connect included China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 3.48 billion HKD, Meituan-W (3690.HK) with 2.49 billion HKD, and China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) with 2.23 billion HKD [3][34] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a net sell of 4.81 billion HKD and Alibaba-W (9988.HK) with 4.38 billion HKD [3][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight decline on June 19, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3362.11 points, down 0.79%. The market showed a mixed performance, with sectors like mining, oil, gas, and cultural media performing well, while software development, internet services, electronic components, and chemical pharmaceuticals lagged [2][6]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 13.93 times and 37.00 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][13]. - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with structural opportunities still present, particularly in sectors such as consumer electronics, communication equipment, semiconductors, and aerospace [2][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On June 19, 2025, the A-share market opened lower and experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3354 points. The market showed a general trend of minor fluctuations throughout the day, with significant trading volume of 12,810 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years [6][13]. - The performance of various sectors was mixed, with over 60% of stocks declining. Notable gainers included electronic components, optical electronics, consumer electronics, wind power equipment, and aerospace, while sectors like pesticides, beauty care, small metals, medical services, and pharmaceutical commerce saw significant declines [6][8]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a continued moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, driven by consumption and investment. The market expects the Federal Reserve to potentially lower interest rates as early as September, which may lead to further easing of overseas liquidity [2][13]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as consumer electronics, communication devices, semiconductors, and aerospace, while close attention should be paid to policy changes, funding conditions, and external market developments [2][13].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [15]. Core Views - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after an initial decline, with significant support at 3376 points for the Shanghai Composite Index. Key sectors such as electronic components, consumer electronics, communication equipment, and semiconductors showed strong performance, while sectors like pesticides, small metals, beauty care, and medical services lagged behind [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 13.90 times and 36.94 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][14]. - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with structural opportunities still present despite recent geopolitical tensions and technical market influences. Key areas to watch include developments in the Middle East, policy signals from the Lujiazui Forum, and changes in trading volume [3][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On June 18, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by a recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3388.81 points, up 0.04%. The total trading volume for both markets was 12,219 billion, slightly lower than the previous trading day [7][8]. - The electronic components, optical electronics, consumer electronics, wind power equipment, and aerospace sectors led the gains, while sectors such as pesticides, beauty care, small metals, and medical services faced declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current economic recovery in China is moderate, with consumption and investment as the main driving forces. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as early as September, which could lead to further easing of overseas liquidity [3][14]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as consumer electronics, communication equipment, semiconductors, and aerospace [3][14].

1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 港股市场策略周报 2025.6.9-2025.6.15 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 2 n 本周市场受地缘政治扰动，呈现出先扬后抑的走势，本周略微收涨。恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +0.89%/+0.42%/-0.89%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，医疗保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超8.5%，排在 第一；原材料业涨幅排在第二，周涨幅近7.0%。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至74%，估值水平超5年均值。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：5月国内通胀表现仍偏弱，后续或继续承压；5月社融信贷数据继续不及预期，私人部门融资仍然偏弱。 n 资金面：5月美国CPI继续不及预期，关税对物价影响低于预期，或主要由于前期美国抢进口后的备货较为充足。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：国内通胀表现仍较弱，经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举； ...

港股收盘，恒生指数涨0.70%，恒生科技指数涨1.15%。港股科技ETF(159751)收盘上涨0.78%，恒生港 股通ETF(159318)收盘上涨0.77%。山东墨龙（002490）涨超30%，众安在线涨超12%，小米集团涨超 4%；药明生物跌超5%。 无需港股通，A股账户就能T+0买港股>> ...

Market Overview - The overall trend of AH stocks in the past six months can be summarized as "gathering market sentiment amid divergence, with gradual valuation recovery amid fluctuations" [1] - Since the pandemic, the stock market has been in a long-term adjustment due to risk control and the downturn in the real estate cycle [1] - After September 24, there has been a noticeable change in market style, with effective policies boosting confidence and altering the characteristics of a shrinking market [1] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market has a high allocation value globally, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 dividend yield remaining above 1.5%, indicating strong appeal for large incremental funds like insurance [1][2] - The continuous decline in bank deposit interest rates is expected to drive savings into the stock market as fixed deposits mature [1] - The return of overseas funds to the Chinese market is evident, with Hong Kong stocks showing significant recovery since the beginning of the year [2] Economic Context - The controllable economic downturn risk suggests that the current dividend yield is unlikely to experience a significant decline [2] - The major reasons for the significant pullback in A-shares since 2021 include economic downturn and deflation expectations, which are less pronounced compared to developed markets [2] - The stabilization of economic expectations is seen as a major positive factor for the stock market [4] Sector Analysis - Assets with strong earnings certainty and high dividend nature are expected to yield absolute returns, attracting low-risk preference funds [3] - Industries that are likely to see opportunities before the economic bottom is confirmed include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI-related sectors, non-bank financials, and more [3] - Many downstream industries are gradually emerging from profit troughs due to price adjustments and technological breakthroughs, despite the year-on-year PPI hitting a new low [3] Conclusion - The risk-reward ratio in the stock market has become particularly evident after years of macro risks, with the current bottom position of the market not requiring a significant economic rebound for valuation recovery [4] - Patience and bottom-up research are essential for achieving favorable results in the current market environment [4]