Market Overview - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Specific Commodity Performance - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - There was a decrease in capital flow, primarily influenced by outflows from precious metals [1] - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to impact short-term asset pricing and market dynamics [1] Energy Sector Insights - Oil prices surged due to tensions in the Middle East and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories, with OPEC+ effectively executing production cuts [1] - Positive expectations for summer oil demand have led to increases in fuel and asphalt prices [1] Chemical Sector Trends - The chemical sector generally strengthened due to rising energy prices, with methanol and other products experiencing a rebound [1] - However, the recovery of downstream demand remains uncertain, indicating a market driven by trading rather than sustained growth [1] Agricultural Sector Analysis - The oilseed and oil sector showed a strong upward trend, supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, despite weak soybean exports [1] - Corn prices faced pressure due to import substitution and declining profitability, while the hog market experienced fluctuations amid seasonal consumption declines [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand [1]. - The evolution of the Israel - Iran situation is crucial, determining the short - term direction and pricing logic of major asset classes. There is uncertainty in the short - term, and the subsequent counter - attack strength of Iran needs to be observed [1]. - Risk appetite is under short - term pressure, but the impact is limited with a stable RMB. The implied volatility of energy and the stability of offshore US dollar liquidity should be continuously tracked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance Review - The overall commodity market rose 2.29% last week. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.11%, while the agricultural products and black sectors rose 2.10% and 0.91% respectively. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors fell 1.76% and 0.09% respectively [1][5]. - Among specific varieties, crude oil, methanol, and short - fiber led the gains with increases of 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively. Gold, pulp, and silver were the top decliners with drops of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1][5]. - The funds in the market decreased, mainly affected by the outflow of funds from precious metals [1][5]. 3.2 Market Outlook by Sector Precious Metals - International gold prices consolidated at high levels due to dovish signals from Fed officials, increased market expectations of interest rate cuts this year, a decline in the US dollar index, and continued gold purchases by global central banks. Silver showed a relatively differentiated performance, fluctuating within a range affected by manufacturing data [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated narrowly. Copper prices consolidated at high levels, supported by tight overseas inventories and continued global new energy investment, but the upward momentum slowed due to the Fed's interest rate policy and weak high - level consumption. Aluminum prices found support near the electrolytic aluminum cost line, and the market focused on power costs and inventory destocking [2]. Black Metals - Steel futures continued to rebound, driven by increased expectations of "stable growth" policies and the fermentation of Tangshan production restriction news. Iron ore prices stabilized following steel as port inventories decreased due to the Brazilian rainy season. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking coal was more willing to follow the price increase, maintaining the resilience of the black metal industry chain, but the recovery of terminal demand still requires policy support [2]. Energy - Crude oil futures rose significantly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. OPEC+ implemented production cuts well, and the market had positive expectations for the summer oil - using peak season, keeping oil prices strong in the short - term and driving the联动上涨 of fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties [3]. Chemicals - Driven by rising energy prices, the chemical sector generally strengthened. Some varieties such as methanol, PTA, and fuel oil made up for lost ground, and the inventory destocking speed accelerated due to some device overhauls and cost increases. Weak varieties such as PVC and ethylene glycol got short - term support, but the substantial recovery of the downstream has not been clear, and the market is more trading - driven [3]. Agricultural Products - The oil and oilseed sector fluctuated strongly. Although US soybean export data was weak, domestic rapeseed varieties rose supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, with rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil leading the gains. Corn prices were under pressure due to import substitution and declining deep - processing profitability. Pig prices fluctuated and corrected due to the off - season consumption and the pressure of slaughter, and industry confidence was still insufficient [3]. 3.3 Commodity - Related Fund Situation - Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the overall gold ETF having a - 1.86% to - 1.95% decline, and the total scale decreased by 1.06%. The trading volume of gold ETFs decreased significantly [42]. - The energy - chemical futures ETF had a positive weekly return of 5.34%, and its scale increased by 2.07%, but the trading volume decreased by 78.24% [42]. - The soybean meal futures ETF had a weekly return of 0.73%, and its scale increased slightly by 0.17%, with a small decrease in trading volume [42]. - The non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a weekly return of - 0.20%, and its scale increased by 1.19%, with a 23.67% decrease in trading volume [42]. - The silver futures (LOF) had a weekly return of - 0.99%, and its trading volume increased by 64.13% while the scale remained unchanged [42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector experienced a decline of 2.20% last week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel down 2.58% and long products down 2.32% [3][11] - Iron water production increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.8% for blast furnaces as of June 20, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.21 percentage points [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products rose, with a total consumption of 884.2 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 16.08 million tons [3][37] - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 913.1 million tons, down 14.37 million tons week-on-week, and down 28.19% year-on-year [3][45] - The average price of ordinary steel decreased slightly, with the comprehensive index at 3361.1 yuan/ton, down 3.71 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][51] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces increased to 155 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, while electric arc furnace profits remained negative at -357.04 yuan/ton [3][59] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector underperformed the market, with a 2.20% decline compared to a 0.45% drop in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [11][13] 2. Supply - As of June 20, the average daily iron water production was 2.4218 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.57% [26] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 54.5%, down 2.19 percentage points week-on-week [26] 3. Demand - The total consumption of five major steel products reached 884.2 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16.08 million tons [37] - The transaction volume of construction steel was 97,000 tons, down 0.22% week-on-week [37] 4. Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 913.1 million tons, down 1.55% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory was 425.8 million tons, down 0.30% week-on-week [45] 5. Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3361.1 yuan/ton, down 0.11% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.81% week-on-week [59]

分析人士指出，"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力，共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示，5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示，社零超预期，一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加，另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法，尽管很多省份进行辟谣，但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳，虽然投资继续放缓，但消费零售表现亮眼，工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计，二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出，国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强，叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在，稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策，以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中，社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点，创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示，1-5 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a broad rally with over 3,500 stocks rising and more than 70 stocks hitting the daily limit up [2] - The three major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.35% at 3,388.73 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.41% at 10,163.55 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.66% at 2,057.32 points [5] Economic Data - Key economic data released showed that industrial added value in May grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 6.4% [7] - Fixed asset investment for January to May saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% [7] - Analysts noted that the macroeconomic data reflects resilience, with consumer goods showing unexpected growth despite a decline in investment growth [7][8] Sector Performance - The wind power equipment sector saw significant gains, with companies like Wind Power Co. and Mingyang Smart Energy rising over 5% [14] - The wind power sector's outlook is bolstered by a large-scale tender for a 3.3GW offshore wind project in the Philippines, expected to enhance domestic companies' order acquisition [14] - The film and media sector, particularly Light Media, experienced a surge with a 20% limit up, driven by positive market sentiment and strong performance from the "Nezha" franchise [12][13] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum is anticipated to bring significant financial policy announcements, which historically have had a major impact on capital markets [9] - The forum will cover key topics such as financial cooperation, global monetary policy coordination, and sustainable capital market development [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second week of June, Sino-US economic and trade negotiations further clarified the agreement framework, releasing positive macro signals. Meanwhile, the impact of heavy precipitation expanded, leading to a marginal decline in the apparent demand for construction-related investment products. In terms of inflation, the decline in food prices continued to widen. In terms of exports, affected by the restoration of North American route capacity and the decline in freight rates, the SCFI index decreased week-on-week this week, while the overall demand in the container shipping market remained stable. In the industrial sector, influenced by supply contraction regulation and expectations, the prices of some industrial products slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the support of the demand side for the sustainability of price increases. In terms of investment, the impact of the rainy season in the South continued to expand this week, resulting in a slowdown in the release of downstream investment demand, and the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline week-on-week. In the real estate sector, after the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival ended, the transactions of new and second-hand houses increased week-on-week this week, and the trading sentiment improved [4][38]. - For the bond market, the current endogenous economic momentum remains stable, with limited short-term marginal changes. The market may focus more on the rhythm and intensity of the pro-growth policies in the third quarter. Policy expectation games may bring trading opportunities. The year-on-year export growth rate in May slowed down compared with April. The data in May did not fully reflect the benefits of the easing of negotiations due to the impact of the tariff incident in the first half of the month. From a high-frequency perspective, the year-on-year growth rate of port container throughput in early June continued to narrow, and it decreased week-on-week compared with the last week of May. The export elasticity brought about by "rush exports" needs further observation. Domestically, it is the traditional off-season in the second quarter, and there are few fundamental increments, making it difficult to provide trend guidance for the bond market in the short term. The market may focus more on the future policy implementation methods and rhythm, including whether additional consumption subsidies will be added and the implementation time of policy-based financial instruments. Considering the slow endogenous economic momentum in the second quarter, a new batch of pro-growth policies in the third quarter is expected to be deployed more quickly. Around the middle of the year, attention can be paid to the trading opportunities brought about by policy expectation games and potential bond market fluctuations [4][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - The decline in food prices widened. This week (June 9 - June 13), the average wholesale price of pork nationwide announced by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 1.45% week-on-week, with an expanding decline. The vegetable price decreased by 0.09% week-on-week, turning from an increase to a decrease. This week, the 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 0.45% and 0.51% week-on-week respectively, indicating a wider decline in food prices [10]. Import and Export-related - The shipping market declined from its high this week, with different trends among routes. The CCFI index increased by 7.6% week-on-week, while the SCFI decreased by 6.8% week-on-week, ending a four-week upward trend. According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the export container shipping market declined after continuous increases this week, with different trends among routes. Among them, the freight rate of the Shanghai Port to European basic ports route increased by 10.6% week-on-week. The transportation demand on the North American route was stable this week, but the supply of shipping capacity continued to increase, alleviating the previous tight cabin situation and causing the freight rate to decline from its high. In terms of port data, in the week from June 2 to June 8, the port's container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 1.9% and 7.9% week-on-week respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and 0.8% respectively. The week-on-week decline expanded, and the year-on-year increase narrowed. Overall, the port operation rhythm slowed down marginally [13]. - The increase in the BDI index expanded. This week, the average value of the BDI index increased by 18.2% week-on-week, and the CDFI index increased by 3.2% week-on-week. The increase in the number of Indonesian coal futures contracts for end-of-month loading in the Pacific market and the improvement in demand drove up the freight rate. The stable and increasing demand for South American grain also supported the freight rate, pushing the BDI to rise rapidly [13]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 0.04% week-on-week, compared with a 0.29% decrease the previous week, indicating a continued weak coal price. In terms of demand, due to high temperatures in many places, the residential electricity load generally increased, and the downstream replenishment demand continued to be released. However, the flood season in the South and the increase in hydropower squeezed some thermal power demand, resulting in a limited increase in the daily consumption of terminal power plants. In terms of price, although the downstream replenishment demand was released, it was mainly fulfilled through long-term contracts, so the port coal price was not significantly boosted [17]. - The price of rebar increased week-on-week. This week, the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.4% week-on-week, compared with a 0.65% decrease the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.4%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a continued reduction in production. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.7% week-on-week, compared with a 8.1% decrease the previous week, continuing to decline marginally. During the traditional off-season for steel consumption, affected by heavy precipitation in the South and other factors, the construction demand slowed down marginally. The supply contraction speed was relatively slower than the demand decline, so the steel price continued to be slightly under pressure [17]. - The increase in copper prices expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.7% and 0.3% week-on-week respectively, continuing to rise. Positive signals were released during the Sino-US negotiation in London this week, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, supporting the continued rise of copper prices [21]. - The spot price of glass remained basically stable. This week, affected by the precipitation weather, the market procurement demand was average. Some local manufacturers reduced prices to clear inventory, and market sentiment became more cautious. However, the current supply and demand were basically balanced, and there was still support from rigid demand, so most enterprises kept their quotes stable [21]. Investment-related - The cement price turned from a decline to an increase, mainly driven by the expected supply contraction in East China. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 1.1% week-on-week, compared with a 1.1% decrease the previous week. The implementation of the kiln shutdown plan by cement enterprises in June, coupled with the increase in clinker prices, drove up the cement prices in some downstream regions. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, with the increasing rainy weather, construction was relatively restricted, and the support of demand for price increases needs further observation [25]. - The sales of new houses in 30 cities showed marginal improvement. From last Friday to this Thursday (June 6 - June 12), the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 1.758 million square meters, an increase of 9.5% week-on-week and 10.5% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the sales momentum of new houses recovered marginally [28]. - The transaction of second-hand houses increased week-on-week and turned positive year-on-year. This week (June 6 - June 12), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities was 2.013 million square meters, an increase of 30.1% week-on-week and 23.3% year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the seasonal sales rush as the end of the half-year approaches [28]. Consumption - The year-on-year increase in passenger car retail sales expanded in early June. From June 1 to June 8, passenger car retail sales increased by 19% year-on-year (the full-month year-on-year increase in May was 13%), and decreased by 12% month-on-month [33]. - Affected by the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rose rapidly. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 11.7% and 13.0% week-on-week respectively, showing a strong upward trend. This week, positive signals from Sino-US negotiations, tightened US sanctions on Iran, and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East may have driven up oil prices [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing intense supply and demand dynamics, with short-term fluctuations expected [3] - Despite the challenges in the steel industry, including prominent supply-demand conflicts and overall profit decline, the implementation of "stabilization growth" policies is anticipated to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [4] - The industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, benefiting from high-end steel products and companies with strong cost control and scale effects [4] Supply Summary - As of June 13, 2025, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4161 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.19 thousand tons, but a year-on-year increase of 5.86 thousand tons [26] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.6%, down 0.07 percentage points week-on-week [26] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.486 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 225.2 thousand tons, or 2.92% [26] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.681 million tons as of June 13, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 140.7 thousand tons, or 1.59% [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 100 thousand tons, down 6.18% week-on-week [35] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 148.3 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 66.1 million square meters [35] Inventory Summary - The social inventory of five major steel products was 9.275 million tons as of June 13, 2025, down 3.53 thousand tons week-on-week, or 0.38% [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.271 million tons, down 5.72 thousand tons week-on-week, or 1.32% [43] Price Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,364.8 yuan/ton as of June 13, 2025, down 19.23 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 0.57% [48] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,616.8 yuan/ton, down 7.72 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 0.12% [48] Profit Summary - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 135 yuan/ton as of June 13, 2025, an increase of 36.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 36.36% [56] - The average profit margin for 247 steel enterprises was 58.44% as of June 13, 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel and Hualing Steel [4] - Companies with excellent growth potential and restructuring capabilities, such as Baosteel and Maanshan Steel, are also recommended [4] - Special steel enterprises benefiting from the new energy cycle, such as Jiuli Special Materials and Fangda Special Steel, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China economic and trade consultation in London has yielded positive outcomes, enhancing bilateral economic relations and setting the stage for further cooperation [1] Group 1: Market Insights - The China Securities A500 Index (中证A500) is designed using an "industry balance" approach, representing the top 500 securities by market capitalization and liquidity, covering 100% of the second-level industries and 97% of the third-level industries in the China Securities market [1] - The A500 Index includes approximately 50% traditional value sectors (finance, materials, consumer, energy, public utilities) and 50% emerging growth sectors (industrial, information technology, communication services, healthcare) [2] - Historical performance shows that as of May 30, 2025, the A500 Index has increased by 350.35% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 and CSI 800 indices, which recorded returns of 284.02% and 314.03% respectively [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider the China Securities A500 ETF (159338) for exposure to core A-share assets, with a scale of 19.742 billion yuan as of June 10, 2025, making it the largest among the first batch of A500 ETFs [3] - The A500 ETF has the highest average daily trading volume among the first batch of A500 ETFs, indicating strong liquidity [4]

Macro and Strategy Research - In May 2025, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in the previous month, while imports fell by 3.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% previously. The trade surplus reached USD 103.22 billion, up from USD 96.18 billion [4][5] - The slowdown in export growth is attributed to high base effects and global economic downturn concerns, with the global manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 for three consecutive months. Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5%, influenced by new tariffs and cautious sentiment among traders [4][5] - Import demand showed weakness, with agricultural imports rising by 17.9% year-on-year, while other major commodities experienced negative growth, indicating a need for policy support to boost domestic demand [5] Fixed Income Research - For the period from June 2 to June 8, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds increased, while transaction amounts decreased. The net financing amount for credit bonds rose, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes seeing increases, while company bonds and short-term financing bonds saw reductions [6][8] - The overall yield on medium and short-term notes and corporate bonds declined, while city investment bonds showed mixed results. The credit spread for medium and short-term notes widened, indicating a complex market environment [8] - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for yields is downward, and investors should focus on timing their investments and monitoring interest rate trends [8] Industry Research - In the steel sector, demand is expected to decline as the off-season deepens, leading to a potential accumulation of steel inventory. The short-term outlook remains weak for steel prices [10][11] - For copper, tight supply at the mine level supports prices, but the lack of demand during the off-season may lead to volatility, particularly influenced by US-China trade negotiations [10][11] - The aluminum market faces uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors, while low domestic inventory provides some price support. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, US interest rate expectations, and geopolitical factors, with a focus on macroeconomic data and trade developments [10][11] - The lithium market is experiencing oversupply, leading to price weakness, while the rare earth sector is positioned for long-term growth due to policy support and emerging demand from robotics and renewable energy [10][11]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 6 / 1 1 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年6月10日焦煤期货上涨，是多因素共振的结果。从宏观层面看，政策端稳增长信号加强，宏观 预期边际改善，为市场注入信心，资金活跃度提升，推动焦煤期货价格上扬。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供需角度而言，前期焦煤价格持续下行，5月主力合约跌幅近22% ，期货相较现货跌幅更大，盘面 存在强烈修复基差需求。6月3日，焦煤主力合约一度大幅下探，贴水现货成本较多，超跌状态显著， 为反弹提供了内在动力。同时，成本端给予一定支撑，山西部分煤种价格逼近现金成本线，煤矿减 产预期渐浓，供应收缩预期升温，也推动了价格上涨。 不过，此次上涨持续性存疑。供应端，5月焦煤进口量维持高位，蒙煤口岸成交价持续下滑。需求端， 虽当前钢厂铁水日产量处于高位，但6月为传统淡季，南方雨季也抑制开工，产量后续大概率环比回 落，且现货 ...