Group 1 - The trade agreement between Japan and the United States involves a reduction of the "reciprocal tariff" rate from 25% to 15%, and the automotive tariff rate is also reduced to 15% [1][2] - Japan has committed to invest a total of $550 billion in key U.S. industries, purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, and increase its rice imports from the U.S. by 75% [2] - Despite the agreement, concerns remain in Japan regarding the limited impact on reducing the trade surplus with the U.S., and the possibility of further pressure from the Trump administration [2][6] Group 2 - Japanese automotive industry representatives express dissatisfaction with the new tariff rate, stating that 15% is still too high compared to the previous 2.5% rate [4] - Mitsubishi Motors reported a significant 97.5% decrease in net profit for the April to June period, attributing the decline to high tariffs [4] - Experts warn that the initial agreement does not adequately address the trade imbalance, and further pressure from the U.S. may continue [6][7]

道富投资管理：多种因素支撑黄金需求金价在美股反弹背景下依然高位坚挺 【机构观点分析】 国信期货观点认为，近期美国密集推进贸易协议取得实质性进展，多重贸易突破预期正削弱全球经贸不 确定性，市场避险情绪持续回落。美联储层面，政治干扰因素依然存在，特朗普虽撤回解雇鲍威尔的威 胁，却持续施压美联储降息。展望后市，贵金属短期或维持震荡调整，需等待贸易协议细节与货币政策 路径形成更清晰指引。 国信期货：避险情绪降温贵金属短期或维持震荡调整 五矿期货：美联储政策独立性受挫是后续贵金属市场交易主线 新湖期货：近期黄金总体呈现震荡后续金价中枢仍将上行 DataTrek Research：地缘紧张和央行购金推动近年黄金表现强于美股 五矿期货研报指出，复盘金银历史上的行情走势，黄金价格的驱动来自于美国财政赤字的扩张与全球风 险事件的触发，而白银价格则更受益于美联储宽松的货币政策预期。从金银价格近期盘面走势来看，其 对于美国重要经济数据的反应相对有限，而贵金属价格在美联储关键票委发言、以及联储主席"去职风 波"事件前后出现较大的边际变化。当前美联储货币政策的核心影响驱动已不再局限于就业和通胀数 据，而更多受到来自于特朗普政府强力施压 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9390, with a recent report showing a price of 9372 USD/oz, down 0.53% from the opening at 9300 USD/oz, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 9447 USD/oz, while the lowest was 9290 USD/oz, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite plans for counter-tariffs, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - A proposed framework similar to the US-Japan trade agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [3] - Key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals may be affected, with potential tariff exemptions for certain sectors, although high tariffs on steel remain a contentious issue [3] - The EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a support level established at 9300 and a potential resistance at 9550 [4] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within a high-level fluctuation range, with key levels to watch being 9300 for support and 9550 for resistance [4] - The market sentiment suggests caution against overly aggressive bullish positions, with a focus on potential breakout points for further movement [4]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心上移，其中 WTI9 月合约收盘上涨 0.78 美元至 66.03 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.20%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 0.67 美元至 69.18 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.98%。SC2509 以 507.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 2.8 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.56%。地缘政治紧张局势持续受关注。俄乌双方在伊 | | | | 斯坦布尔举行和谈讨论进一步交换战俘，但双方在停火条件和领 | | | | 导人会晤可能性上仍存在巨大分歧。另有两名行业消息人士称， | | | | 由于新规实施，外国油轮被暂时禁止在俄罗斯主要黑海港口装货， | | | 原油 | 这实际上停止了哈萨克斯坦通过部分由美国能源巨头持股的财团 | 震荡 | | | 出口石油。现货市场方面，亚太原油市场，9 月装拉布安原油的现 | | | | 货价差攀升，因为新加坡中质馏份油的炼油利润表现坚挺。9 月 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows a mixed picture with manufacturing in contraction and inflation pressure rising, while the EU and the US are in trade negotiations and the ECB maintains interest rates. Domestically, the stock and commodity markets are positive, the bond market is under pressure, and various commodities show different trends affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [2][3] - The prices of precious metals are in回调 due to the expected easing of trade tensions; copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile; aluminum prices are likely to oscillate; alumina prices will stay in a short - term oscillation; zinc prices will adjust at a high level; lead prices will move horizontally; tin prices will oscillate at a high level; industrial silicon prices will be strongly oscillating; lithium carbonate prices will have a wide - range oscillation; nickel prices may oscillate strongly; crude oil prices will have their center of gravity lifted; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will oscillate; and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal will have a wide - range oscillation, while palm oil prices may oscillate strongly [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI is 49.5 (in contraction), the service PMI is 55.2 (a new high for the year), inflation pressure rises, and business confidence drops. The EU and the US are close to a trade deal, but the EU has approved a 930 - billion - euro anti - tariff measure on US products. The ECB maintains interest rates, and the market's expectation of further rate cuts weakens [2] - Domestic: The A - share market breaks through 3600 points, with a trading volume of about 1.9 trillion yuan. The bond market is under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond rates rise to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively [3] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce. The expected easing of global trade tensions weakens the demand for hedging, putting pressure on precious metals [4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly falls. The US manufacturing contraction and the approaching tariff deadline make the overseas capital market cautious. Freeport's second - quarter copper production is 43.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile [6][7] Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closes at 20760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%. The increase in the US dollar index and the weak US manufacturing PMI increase the pressure on aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreases. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closes at 3355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%. The low - level warehouse receipt inventory provides support for alumina prices, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc has an intraday volatile and strong trend. The decrease in the position of an LME seat, the slight increase in LME inventory, and the slight discount of LME0 - 3 spot ease the squeeze - out concern. Zinc prices are expected to adjust at a high level [11][12] Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead moves horizontally. The high inventory pressure is not relieved, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to move horizontally in the short term, and attention should be paid to consumption variables [13][14] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillates at a high level. The decrease in the position of an LME seat eases the squeeze - out concern, but the rainy season in Southeast Asia may affect the transportation of tin ore in Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon is strongly oscillating. The supply side is in a passive contraction state, and the demand side shows different trends. Supported by policies, the prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but the risk of high - level decline should be guarded against [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate runs strongly, and the spot price slightly rises. The market is affected by various news, and the price amplitude increases. The spot market is cold, and lithium prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [18][19] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillate weakly. The supply of nickel ore is becoming more abundant, and the cost pressure of nickel iron still exists. The introduction of the price draft may make nickel prices oscillate strongly [20][21] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices oscillate. The short - term geopolitical risk cools down, the EIA crude oil inventory decreases more than expected, and the macro - sentiment is strengthening, pushing up the center of gravity of crude oil prices [22][23] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. Multiple departments are promoting anti - involution competition rectification. The supply and demand of steel are in a weak balance. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The supply of iron ore is sufficient, and the cost increase due to the rise of coke prices suppresses the bargaining space of iron ore. The demand remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [25] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal fall. The water - heat conditions in the US soybean - producing areas are good, and the export sales of new - crop soybeans are slow. Affected by the protein - reduction policy, the long - position funds reduce their positions, and the prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [26][27] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices may oscillate strongly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is in an increasing cycle, and the potential demand from countries like India provides support. The market expects future supply to tighten [28][29]

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 当地时间7月24日，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正在羽田机场接受采访。现场视频截图 关于日本承诺对美投资的细节，也存在诸多不明之处。 美方声明并未明确15%关税的具体生效时间。而日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正则称，新的关税"可能将于8月1日生效"。 当地时间周四（24日），回到日本的赤泽在羽田机场告诉记者们，"我们的理解是，美方接下来将采取必要措施，比如发布行政令等。" 协议中另一条款还将日本进口汽车的总税率从27.5%降至15%，且在新税率下不设数量上限，赤泽希望这一调整能够"尽快"落实。日本政府消息人士透露， 汽车关税下调预计在对等关税生效后不久实施。 对于美国财政部长贝森特23日接受电视采访时称，美国每个季度都将详查日本对协议的履行情况，若特朗普感到不满意，关税可能回升至25%的说法，赤泽 则称，他压根"不记得"曾与特朗普或其内阁成员讨论过此事，也没有注意到美方相关声明。 据中新网消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间7月22日宣布，美国与日本达成贸易协议，原定25%的所谓"对等关税"将下调至15%，同时日本将向美国开放汽 车、卡车、大米及某些其他农产品和商品市场。 此外，日本还将向美国投资 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement to reduce auto import tariffs to 15% and exempt certain goods from punitive tariffs. Additionally, positive progress in U.S.-EU trade talks is expected to lead to a deal with a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [3] - Strong economic data has boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000, the lowest in three months, and the composite PMI and services PMI both rising in July, indicating accelerated economic activity. This has led to a stronger dollar index (up 0.3%) and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.408%, reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3] - President Trump's rare visit to the Federal Reserve raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, which could provide medium to long-term support for gold prices. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September [4] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. June durable goods orders, which is an important indicator of manufacturing activity and economic health, likely to impact gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weakening trend after forming three consecutive bullish candles, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed. The price has broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [5] - Key support levels to monitor include 3339, the lower boundary of the current upward channel, and 3324, a trendline support formed by previous lows. Resistance is significantly higher at around 3450, making a rebound to this level unlikely in the short term [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a series of bearish candles, with a slight recovery after hitting 3351. Confirmation of the 3351 low is crucial; if the price rebounds above this level, resistance can be identified at 3393/3395 and 3402/3406. A drop below 3351 would lead to a focus on the daily support levels mentioned [6] - The one-hour chart suggests that gold may be in a corrective phase, with potential for a rebound from the recent low at 3351. The structure indicates that if the price breaks above key resistance levels, it could signal a shift in trend direction [7]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has ordered his team to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating a proactive approach to understanding trade dynamics [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - The trade agreement does not imply a reduction in tariffs imposed by Japan on U.S. goods, suggesting that Japan may maintain its current tariff levels despite ongoing negotiations [1]

大摩闭门会-亚洲市场贸易交易阅读;日本参议院选举;印度 繁荣的基石 20250724 摘要 日美贸易协议降低了日本经济下行风险和美国关税的不确定性，但日本 对美投资计划可能包含担保框架，实际财政支出有限，对经济的提振效 果或低于预期。 日本汽车股上涨主要受空头平仓驱动，但美国可能对从加拿大或墨西哥 出口的汽车征收关税，以及成本转嫁能力的不确定性，或将抑制汽车制 造商的盈利增长。 日本上议院选举后，执政联盟虽未达到多数席位，但首相岸田文雄宣布 留任，非自民党联合政府可能性较低。若执政联盟瓦解，可能影响治理 改革，如提高企业税率等政策。 民调显示岸田首相支持率较低，若小泽一郎当选首相，市场对财政刺激 政策预期较高。执政党与反对党合作可能导致政策调整，部分抑制扩张 性财政政策的预期。 亚洲贸易协议普遍高于投资者预期，美国对越南、印尼、菲律宾等国征 收的关税处于较高水平，将对出口企业利润率和试图涨价进入美国市场 的公司产生不利影响。 Q&A 日本与美国达成的贸易协议对日本经济有哪些具体影响？ 近期亚洲股票市场受贸易协议影响如何？ 我们团队发布了一份关于该地区贸易协议及其对亚洲股票市场影响的报告。总 体来看，许多交易似 ...

Group 1 - The recent US-Japan trade agreement is viewed as a significant victory by President Trump, but it raises concerns for American automakers who fear competitive disadvantages [1][2] - The agreement reduces the "reciprocal tariff" rate from 25% to 15%, with a 12.5% tariff on Japanese cars, leading to a total of 15% when combined with the previous 2.5% tariff [1] - American automakers, represented by a trade organization, argue that the agreement gives Japanese cars an advantage over those produced by the "Big Three" automakers in the US [1][2] Group 2 - The US automotive policy committee chairman states that American companies and workers are at a disadvantage due to high tariffs on steel, aluminum, and vehicle parts [2] - General Motors reported an $1.1 billion loss in the second quarter due to the tariffs, with expectations of worsening impacts in the third quarter [2] - The White House claims the agreement will create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US and lead to a $550 billion investment from Japan [2] Group 3 - Concerns exist regarding the actual penetration of American cars in the Japanese market, which is known for being one of the most closed automotive markets globally [3] - Only 6% of cars sold in Japan are imported from other countries, and the market favors smaller vehicles over the larger American trucks and SUVs [3] - The US Treasury Secretary warned that higher tariffs would be reinstated if Japan does not comply with the trade agreement [3]