Group 1 - Aerospace South Lake stock surged by 20%, with other military stocks like Qifeng Precision and Huawu Co. also seeing significant gains, indicating a strong market response [1] - The report from Kaiyuan Securities highlights that the global military power rebalancing is creating more uncertainty in the capital markets, which may lead to a reassessment of the valuation of military stocks due to their perceived safe-haven attributes [1] - Other military stocks such as Chengfei Integration, Tianjian Technology, and Lijun Co. also reached their daily limit, reflecting a broader positive trend in the military sector [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices rebounded strongly on May 8, with WTI crude oil futures rising by $1.84 to $59.91 per barrel, a 3.17% increase, and Brent crude oil futures increasing by $1.72 to $62.84 per barrel, a 2.81% rise, due to reduced market concerns over trade tensions [1] - The market reacted positively to the announcement of a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K., which includes partial tariff reductions and expanded market access, although many details remain to be finalized [1] - Oil prices are still largely driven by news events, with analysts noting that while there is some optimism regarding reduced tariff tensions, attention must be paid to OPEC+'s plans to accelerate the exit from voluntary production cuts after June [1] Group 2 - Investment banks are continuing to lower their oil price forecasts, with Citigroup analysts reducing their three-month Brent crude oil price prediction from $60 per barrel to $55 per barrel, while maintaining a $60 per barrel forecast for the year [2] - Analysts at Citigroup indicated that if a nuclear agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, increased supply could push Brent crude oil prices down to $50 per barrel, whereas failure to reach an agreement could see prices rise above $70 per barrel [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Conference hosted by Kaiyuan Securities focused on investment opportunities in humanoid robots, AI computing power, and pharmaceutical innovation, amidst discussions on China's high-quality economic development [1] - The conference highlighted a 5.4% year-on-year GDP growth in Q1 2025, indicating a positive economic outlook for China despite external challenges [1] - Kaiyuan Securities' Vice President Sun Jinjv emphasized the adaptability of policy measures to support economic stability and growth in response to changing circumstances [1] Group 2 - Chief Macro Analyst He Ning proposed a strategy centered on self-reliance, focusing on six policy dimensions to support the real economy, including monetary easing and targeted assistance for export enterprises [2] - Chief Strategist Wei Jixing introduced a "bottom-line thinking" approach, suggesting that the investment paradigm should adapt to include geopolitical risk premiums and focus on domestic demand recovery [2] - Wei Jixing outlined a "4+1" investment framework for H2 2025, emphasizing sectors such as consumer goods, technology, cost improvement, and structural opportunities in exports [3] Group 3 - The real estate sector is expected to benefit from a loosening policy environment, with significant fiscal and monetary support anticipated to stimulate demand [3] - Fixed income analyst Chen Xi projected GDP growth to remain above 5% in Q2 and Q3 2025, indicating a stable economic outlook [3] - Kaiyuan Securities aims to enhance its research capabilities and service offerings, positioning itself as a leading research institution with market influence and pricing power [4]

以下文章来源于不在此山中 ，作者不在此山中 不在此山中 . 专注基金投资和资产配置，著有《指数基金投资从入门到精通》，投顾组合"天行健" 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 不在此山中 来源：雪球 投资赚钱的两个基本逻辑 ： 一是承担风险 ， 获取风险溢价 ； 二是捕捉市场定价错误 。 因子投资是我推崇的投资方法 ， 也是 " 天行健 " 基金组合的主要方向 。 今天我们就来看看这 两个逻辑在因子投资中是怎么起作用的 。 目前最常见的因子包括规模 、 价值 、 质量 、 红利和低波 ， 下面我们就逐个来看 。 1.规模因子 ： 小公司的 " 逆袭 " ？ 规模因子关注的是市值较小的公司 ， 其获取超额收益的逻辑 ： 风险溢价角度 ： 小公司家底薄 ， 抗风险能力通常不如大公司 。 信息可能没那么透明 ， 股票 流动性也差些 ， 买卖不方便 。 投资小公司 ， 就像坐一条小船 ， 风浪来了更颠簸 。 承担这份 额外风险 ， 市场会给你相应的 " 风险补偿 " 。 错误定价角度 ： 很多大机构资金量大 ， 小公司 " 盘子 " 太小 ， 它们懒得研究或买不 ...

Group 1 - The opportunity cost of investing in the Chinese stock market has decreased, leading to a positive outlook for A/H shares, particularly in the financial, technology, and certain cyclical sectors [1][2] - The overall growth rate is recovering, with technological innovation and domestic demand policies being the core themes driving the market [1][2] - Emerging technology is identified as the main theme, while the financial cycle is seen as a dark horse in the current market landscape [1][2] Group 2 - The stock selection for May includes companies from various sectors such as Alibaba, Zhaoyi Innovation, and China Shenhua, indicating a diversified investment approach [4] - The market sentiment reflects a strong understanding among investors regarding the situation, with stable policy continuity and a decline in risk-free interest rates contributing to increased market participation [4]

| | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/07 | 4.297 | 4.512 | 3.257 | 2.539 | 3.626 | 3.191 | 0.280 | 3.369 | | 最新变化 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 一周变化 | 0.060 | 0.034 | 0.070 | 0.071 | 0.053 | 0.070 | -0.099 | 0.079 | | 一月变化 | 0.267 | -0.007 | -0.120 | -0.111 | -0.145 | -0.112 | -0.162 | -0.088 | | 一年变化 | -0.346 | 0.179 | 0.167 | ...

报告导读： "一揽子金融政策"发布，不仅明确政府"锚定经济发展目标"的立场，也进一步 打通股市贴现率下降的通路，继续看好中国 A/H 股市，推荐金融、成长与部分周期。 事件点评：股市贴现率进入向下走廊，继续看好中国 A/H 股市。 5 月 7 日，央行、金融监管总局与证监 会负责人发布一揽子稳市场稳预期的金融政策。政策密集度超出以往；政策力度强与覆盖面宽，包括金融 支持实体经济，也强调稳定资产价格与推动资本市场改革。表明决策层关于"锚定经济社会发展目标"以 及"持续稳定与活跃资本市场"的立场是明确的。应该认识到，中美的竞争是长期性的，由此，中国股市估 值预期的关键"在内不在外"。鲜明的政策立场与得当的政策举措，能够令市场形成连贯的、可预期的政策 前景，并稳定风险前景，形成中国的"确定性优势"，降低股市风险溢价。更为重要的是，积极的金融政策 对推动股市无风险利率降低具有关键影响，意味着投资中国股市的机会成本快速下降，推动增量入市。重 要的转折已经出现，投资者关于中美竞争的严峻性与对决策层扭转形势决心的疑虑消减，这既是风险释放 也是试金石。由此，中国股市的贴现率进入系统性下移的走廊，继续看好中国 A/H 股市。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher due to a combination of central bank policies and upcoming high-level US-China trade talks, but the gains were limited as major indices showed mixed performance by the end of the trading day [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.13% or 29.17 points at 22,691.88 points, with a total trading volume of 240.05 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.23% to 8,242.25 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.75% to 5,200.04 points [1] Group 2: Blue-Chip Stocks - Link REIT (00823) led blue-chip stocks with a rise of 6.68% to 39.95 HKD, contributing 10.74 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included Zhongsheng Group (00881) up 4.8% and AIA Group (01299) up 2.92%, while Mengniu Dairy (02319) and China Biologic Products (01177) saw declines of 3.6% and 3.04% respectively [2] Group 3: Sector Highlights - Military stocks performed well, with AVIC Aircraft (02357) rising 6.35% and China Shipbuilding Industry (00317) up 5.97%, driven by escalating tensions in the India-Pakistan region [3] - The Macau gaming sector continued its upward trend, with SJM Holdings (00200) increasing by 4.73% and Sands China (01928) by 2.67%, supported by strong visitor numbers during the May Day holiday [4] - Financial stocks generally rose, with China Construction Bank (00939) up 2.02% and China Life Insurance (02628) up 1.51% [4] Group 4: Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a series of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a reduction in policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points, aimed at stabilizing the market [5] - The housing loan interest rate was also lowered by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to positively impact the real estate sector [6] Group 5: Notable Stock Movements - Boleton (01333) debuted with a significant increase of 38.33% to 24.9 HKD, focusing on electric engineering machinery [8] - Yuan Da Pharmaceutical (00512) rose 13.36% to 6.79 HKD following successful clinical trial results for a new drug [9] - Country Garden Services (06098) fell 5.55% to 6.64 HKD due to a financing arrangement involving a loan from its major shareholder [10]

此外，当前10年期国债收益率进一步下探至1.63%，基本来到历史新低，以红利指数、红利低波指数股 息率（近12个月）与其差值作为衡量风险溢价的指标，均已来到近十年（2015/5/6-2025/5/6）100%的最 高点，显示出A股红利类资产较高的投资价值。（数据来源：Wind，截至2025/5/6。投资国债和投资股 票的风险收益特征不同，投资者进行投资时应当全面考虑投资风险。） 据悉，红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）分别是A股首只规模达两百亿元的红利主题ETF 和红利低波主题ETF，交易所数据显示，5月6日最新规模分别为218.50亿元、159.14亿元。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理公司不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益，基金 过往业绩不能预示未来收益。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，风险自担。投资人在投资基金前应认真阅读 《基金合同》和《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产品情况 及听取销售机构适当性意见的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金投资作 出独立决策，选择合适的基金产品。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关， ...

军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（代码：399967），该指数由中证指数有限公司编制， 从沪深市场中选取涉及航天、航空、船舶、兵器、军事电子等领域的代表性上市公司证券作为指数样 本，以反映中国A股市场军工行业整体表现。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化 而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金 业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 印巴冲突继续升级，军工板块午后拉升，军工ETF（512660）涨超4%，成交额超9亿元。 消息面上，当地时间5月7日凌晨，印度对巴基斯坦及巴控领土的多个地区发动了导弹袭击；作为对 印度军事打击的报复措施，巴基斯坦方面声称，截至目前已击落6架印度战机。联合国秘书长则呼吁印 巴最大限度保持军事克制。 开源证券指出，全球军事力量再平衡将给资本市场带来更多的不确定性，资产的"地缘风险溢价"或 导致军工股避险属性的估值重估。中银国际指出，地缘政治冲突推动的全球防务预算增长，将为军工产 业提供发展机遇。 ...