上周，美股AI板块在市场质疑声中剧烈波动。此前，甲骨文等AI明星品种在资金担忧巨额投入能否转 化为利润、以及融资模式争议中集体承压，市场对"AI泡沫是否走到破裂边缘"的讨论迅速扩散。 12月17日甲骨文股价大跌逾5%，与9月的历史高点相比，跌幅接近50%。AI泡沫之争已成为美股市场的 焦点所在。 □本报记者 王雪青 王昱炟 AI泡沫讨论升级 近日，全球最大对冲基金桥水联席首席投资官格雷格·詹森警告称，随着大型科技公司越来越多地依赖 用"外部资本"来支撑不断上升的成本，人工智能支出热潮正进入一个"危险"阶段。 中金公司在12月17日发布的研报中认为，甲骨文在披露高额资本开支计划后，股价出现大幅回调。这一 现象反映出市场对人工智能投资的逻辑正在发生转向，单纯依赖资本开支驱动的乐观叙事或已不再占据 主导地位，投资者开始重新审视潜在风险。投资回报、融资条件以及企业间关联性三个维度存在潜在风 险点。 报告显示，尽管AI被视为未来最具潜力的技术方向，但其商业化路径仍不明确。随着投资规模不断扩 大，AI投资的边际效率大概率也会降低，但成本却未见下降。AI投资仍处于"规模不经济"阶段，市场担 忧正在推动股票估值重新评估。同时 ...

□本报记者 王雪青 日本央行加息"靴子"落地。12月19日，日本央行宣布加息25个基点，将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%， 达到30年来的最高水平，符合市场普遍预期。这是日本央行自2024年3月货币政策正常化以来的第四次 加息，上一次加息动作是在今年1月。 "正如我们所料。"多位分析人士表示，日本央行宣布加息后，全球多个主要市场表现平稳，甚至不跌反 涨。截至12月19日收盘，日经225指数上涨1.03%；A股三大指数全线飘红；纳斯达克指数上涨1.31%。 中国证券报记者采访了解到，机构对日本加息的叙事正在发生变化。对照2024年日本加息引发的全球市 场"黑色星期一"，当前更充分的预期消化与更稳定的外部环境，使得多数机构倾向于将其视作一次可控 的再平衡扰动。 也是基于上述逻辑，中信证券海外宏观分析师韦昕澄认为："在美日央行政策分歧的背景下，美国因素 才是当前全球流动性与美元资产定价的核心主线。" 韦昕澄进一步表示，目前市场对AI叙事的质疑集中体现于业务模式较激进的少数企业，而多数财务状 况较稳健的AI龙头仍能维持市场信任，产业智能化热潮应能在中短期继续支持美股龙头的业绩表现。 展望未来日元走势，张梦表示，考 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's China and Hong Kong equity strategy head, Liu Mingdi, forecasts significant upside potential for major indices by 2026, with MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index projected to reach 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively, indicating approximately double-digit growth from current levels [1][3]. Investment Themes - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: "anti-involution," growth in global AI infrastructure spending, the positive impact of developed countries' easing policies on exports, and the "K-shaped" recovery in consumption benefiting food and beverage and ultra-premium sectors [1][4]. - A potential fifth theme is the stabilization of the real estate market, with expectations for clearer signals during the upcoming National People's Congress [4]. Market Outlook - Liu's team has maintained a positive outlook on MSCI China and CSI 300 indices since January 2025, with expectations for continued upward trends into 2026. The current economic phase is characterized as "summer," with potential for a "spring sprint" in growth stocks by 2026 [3][4]. - The target growth rates for the indices are approximately 22% for MSCI China, 13.5% for CSI 300, and 17.8% for MSCI Hong Kong [3]. Sector Analysis - Semiconductor valuations are currently considered high, while sectors such as photovoltaics and energy storage are viewed more favorably. The market is expected to mature, leading to reduced volatility and increased asset configurability [5][6]. - The consumption sector is seen as attractive due to low valuations compared to other markets, with the MSCI China Consumer Staples Index having a lower price-to-earnings ratio than its counterparts in India, the US, and Japan [7][9]. Consumer Sentiment - The current consumer spending slowdown is attributed to concerns over income and employment rather than a lack of funds. There is optimism for consumer recovery, particularly as government policies focus on consumption and real estate in the coming year [9].

策 略 研 究 策 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 21 日 美国居民部门加杠杆或将深化长期风险——周观 点 投资要点： 近期观点 4、 美国 AI 泡沫一旦破灭，全球美元债务风险有望同步释放。 略 定 期 报 告 5、 关注美元可能阶段性走强所指引的风险信号，随后可能出现 美元美债美股三杀。 6、 中国市场有望在海外风险释放过程中进行风格上的长期大切 换，同时伴随人民币持续大幅升值。 7、 长期看好保险，央国企红利，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军 贸。 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、美元体系或将从庞氏融资走向明斯基时刻—— 2025.12.21 2、转型牛深入推进——2026 年资本市场展望— —2025.12.21 3、医疗与消费周报——技术驱动医疗智能化，数 据重塑服务新生态——2025.12.20 证 券 研 究 报 诚信专业发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the market is in a phase of stabilization, with expectations for market stability strengthening, but this does not determine the height of the market, indicating a continuation of the oscillating pattern [2][38] - The report notes that the A-share index remains near the levels before the significant drop on November 21, suggesting that there is a buildup of profit-taking pressure at this point [2][38] - The report highlights that the recent market fluctuations have led to a significant net inflow into broad-based ETFs, particularly those tracking the CSI A500, which indicates a positive response to stabilization policies [17][19] Group 2 - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in sectors such as new energy, consumer goods, and dividend stocks, with new energy being a strong sector this year, although it has not fully recovered since the drop on November 21 [3][40] - The technology sector is noted to have a foundation for rebound, as structural risks have eased significantly, with indicators showing a decrease in concentration and high-priced stocks [44][46] - The report discusses the challenges faced by convertible bonds, particularly those nearing maturity, which are experiencing pressure due to time value decay and market aging, suggesting a need for cautious investment strategies [50][54][65]

Core Viewpoint - Short-term fluctuations in A-shares are primarily influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US stock market and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, but A-shares are expected to resonate upward with global markets as US AI core company stock prices stabilize and the impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hike is limited [1] Industry Focus - Key industry focus areas include non-ferrous metals (silver, copper, tin, tungsten), high dividend stocks in Hong Kong, non-bank financials, AI (liquid cooling, optical communication), new energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries), innovative pharmaceuticals, and banking [1] Thematic Focus - Thematic investment areas to pay attention to are Hainan (duty-free), nuclear power, and ice and snow tourism [1]

文 | 虎啸商业评论 在硅谷那条被咖啡和代码浸润的街道上，数字往往不只是货币，更是意志的延伸。 当山姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）在2025年12月这个寒冷的冬季，为OpenAI抛出那份高达1000亿美元的融 资计划书，8300亿美元的投后估值预期，让这家尚未真正"盈利"的公司直逼万亿美元俱乐部。 这笔钱的规模，甚至超过了许多主权国家的年度财政预算。 对于普通人来说，这只是一个天文数字；但对于深谙行业逻辑的资深人士而言，这1000亿美元是 OpenAI在AGI（通用人工智能）前夜，为自己修筑的最后一道、也是最高的一道护城河。 01 算力重工业化，Scaling Law的"昂贵税收" 我们必须清醒地认识到，AI产业正在经历一场从"轻资产软件业"向"重资产重工业"的剧烈转型。 如果说早期的ChatGPT是实验室里的灵光一现，那么现在的GPT-5以及后续的"Stargate（星门）"项目， 则是需要消耗数个中等城市电力、填满数万个机柜的工业级怪兽。 在这个节点，如果不能通过一次性的大规模注资来锁定未来的算力供给，那么OpenAI所谓的"技术领 先"将在Google、Meta和Anthropic的资本围剿下迅速缩 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略报告 产业经济 2025年12月21日 美元体系或将从庞氏融资走向明斯基时刻 证券分析师： 李 浩 执业证书编号：S0210524050003 李刘魁 执业证书编号：S0210524050006 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 核心观点 美元体系的明斯基时刻不仅是金融崩溃，更是资本主义全球化模式的总决算，它正为强调内部均衡的社会主义全球化新范式拉开序幕。 2 华福证券 华福证券 美国实质上正处于"庞氏融资"阶段，并已滑向明斯基时刻边缘：全球收益增长见顶，而地缘政治与高利率驱动的体系维持成本正急剧飙 升且不可逆，导致偿付能力恶化。 AI泡沫与美元庞氏互为表里，若AI叙事破灭，将直接触发美元体系的明斯基时刻：AI泡沫的产生本质上是全球美元债务周期发展到顶部的 表现，讨论AI泡沫何时破灭不如理清美元债务周期的处境。 美元体系正面临结构性拐点，现金流-利息比率出现明显恶化：体系成本因地缘冲突与激进加息大幅上升，而体系收益受逆全球化与增长天 花板压制，导致收益成本倒挂。 本轮危机的结构性特质决定其破坏力或远超2008年，体系容错率已近枯竭： 本轮美元体系成本上升源于维持霸权的刚性 ...

Group 1 - The conference "2026 Annual Dialogue and Global Wealth Management Forum" focuses on the theme "China's Determination in Changing Circumstances" [1] - Liu Gang, Chief Analyst at CICC, emphasized the significant impact of market sentiment and capital accumulation on the market in Q3 2025, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between short-term momentum and long-term trends [6][10] - Liu Gang suggested that to sustain market growth, more focus should be placed on social welfare, expanding domestic demand, and debt reduction, in addition to technological investments [4][11] Group 2 - Liu Gang views the term "bubble" as neutral and believes discussions about whether AI will become a bubble may be unproductive, as bubbles often form during significant market upswings [3][7] - He noted that the definition of a bubble should consider whether investments match demand and whether they exceed capacity, indicating potential issues if investments are heavily leveraged [3][7] - Liu Gang acknowledged that while AI can assist in analysis, it cannot fully replace human analysts due to limitations in understanding context and emotional influences in financial markets [3][8] Group 3 - Liu Gang pointed out that the current credit cycle in the U.S. is declining, while AI presents a positive outlook, suggesting a dual effect on market dynamics [10] - He indicated that while the real estate sector has a small direct impact on the economy and stock market, it significantly affects household balance sheets and income expectations [10][11] - Liu Gang's investment advice for 2026 includes embracing change, being responsible for personal investments, and adhering to common sense in decision-making [12]

一 是流动性预期波动 。 融智投资基金经理兼高级研究员 包金刚指出，11月以来美联储官员的鹰派表态导致市场对降息预期减弱，影响了 全球资金流向及港股科技板块的估值。 二是海外市场对美国"AI泡沫"的担忧情绪波及港股科技板块。 记者丨 特约记者庞华玮 编辑丨 江佩佩 见习编辑张嘉钰 近一个月（11月19日— 12月19日 ）以来，港股市场 持续震荡调整，恒指月内跌2.63%，近700点。恒生中国企业指数跌4.58%，超400点，恒 生科技指数跌4.83%近300点。 港股科技股多数回调，蔚来跌17%，华虹半导体跌15%，中芯国际跌12%，理想跌10%。 | W | | | 恒生指数(HSI) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12-19 16:08:24 | | | | | | 昨收 | 25690.53 | | 25498.13 | 成交额 2211.86亿 | | 今井 | +192.40 +0.75% | | 25634.22 | 成交量 162.54亿 | | 上涨 | 0 | 平盘 | 0 | 下跌 0 | | 最高价 | 25747.01 | 市智率 | 1 ...