Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a marginal improvement in consumer prices due to consumption-boosting policies [1][4] - Food, tobacco, and alcohol prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI increase, while energy prices fell by 6.1%, impacting the CPI decline by about 0.47 percentage points [4][5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [5][6] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In May, the PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1][7] - The decline in PPI is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and international input factors affecting domestic prices, particularly in the oil and gas sectors [7][9] - Certain industries, such as arts and crafts, footwear, and computer manufacturing, saw price increases, indicating a recovery in some sectors driven by consumer demand [7][9]

报 告 正 文 核心 CPI 同比改善， PPI 同比降幅继续走扩。 CPI 方面， 5月 CPI 环比由涨转降，同比降幅持平上月。不 过，核心 CPI 同比增速上行。 PPI 方面， 5 月 PPI 环比降幅持平上月，同比降幅走扩 0.6 个百分点。二者均 受国际能源价格波动拖累。 消费需求仍有边际改善。 5 月能源价格环比下降 1.7% ，同比下降 6.1% ，分别影响 CPI 环比和同比下降约 0.13 和约 0.47 个百分点，是拖累 CPI 下降的主要因素。食品价格环比下降 0.2% ，不过降幅小于季节 性水 平 1.1 个百分点。剔除食品和能源来看，核心 CPI 同比涨幅比上月扩大 0.1 个百分点，消费需求仍然有所改 善。从各分项当月同比来看，除交通通信价格下降 4.3% 以外，其他七大类价格均有所上涨，其中食品烟酒类 价格同比上涨 0.1% 。 能源和原料价格阶段性下行。 5 月 PPI 环比降幅持平上月，同比降幅再走扩，主要原因仍然是国际原油价格 下行，国内油气开采、精炼石油制品和化工价格合计影响 PPI 环比下降约 0.23 个百分点，超过总降幅的五 成。同时，煤炭需求处于淡季，多地受高温 ...

6月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，5月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。工业生产者出厂价 格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。我国以 更大力度和更精准措施提振消费，新质生产力成长壮大，部分领域供需关系有所改善，价格呈现积极变 化。 CPI略有下降，核心CPI同比涨幅扩大 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，CPI环比由涨转降主要受能源价格下降影响。能源价格环比 下降1.7%，影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。 其中，汽油价格下降3.8%，降幅比上月扩大1.8个百分点。食品价格下降0.2%，降幅小于季节性水平1.1 个百分点，影响CPI环比下降约0.04个百分点。其中，应季蔬菜上市量增加，鲜菜价格下降5.9%；鸡 蛋、猪肉和禽肉类价格稳中略降，降幅在0.3%—1.0%之间；受部分地区暴雨天气、伏季休渔期等因素 影响，鲜果、淡水鱼和海水鱼供应有所减少，价格分别上涨3.3%、3.1%和1.5%。消费需求持续回暖， 叠 ...

中国通胀数据快评 5 月服务价格推动核心 CPI 上涨，6 月 CPI 同比有望转正 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月09日 事项： 6 月 9 日国家统计局公布，5 月份中国 CPI 同比为-0.1%，持平上月；PPI 同比为-3.3%，降幅扩大 0.6 个百 分点。 评论： 结论：5 月国内 CPI 当月同比维持稳定，其中核心 CPI 延续温和上涨态势，食品、能源 CPI 同比有所回落； 5 月 PPI 当月同比降幅进一步扩大，其中生活资料价格同比降幅有所收窄，生产资料价格同比降幅明显扩 大，生产资料中偏上游的采掘工业、偏中游的原材料工业、偏下游的加工工业价格同比降幅均有所扩大。 从环比来看，5 月国内 CPI 环比略高 ...

6月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，5月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降 0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 5月份"CPI-PPI"同比剪刀差扩大，反映出工业部门需求不济的情况有所加剧，但企业数据也反映部分行业供需关系有所改善，结构性特征更加明显，如宾馆住宿价 格环比涨幅创近十年同期新高、光伏、锂电等新能源行业供需关系有所改善。 市场机构分析认为，5月CPI环比由涨转降，持平于历史同期平均水平，而从PPI来看，输入性价格下行压力依然偏大。 能源价格影响拖累CPI表现 自3月以来，CPI连续三个月同比降幅为0.1%，环比看，5月CPI由涨转降。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍，能源价格是拖累CPI同比和环比表现的主要因素。从同比看，5月份能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分 点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分点。从环比看，能源价格下降1.7%，影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。 而对CPI形成支撑的因素则是提振消费相关政策持续显效。同比看，扣除能源的 ...

2025 年 06 月 09 日 核心 CPI 连续两月超季节性 宏观研究团队 宏 观 经 济 点 评 相关研究报告 《 美国就业市场仍有隐忧—美国 5月 非农就业数据点评》-2025.6.7 《美国关税战出现反复—宏观周报》 -2025.6.2 《PMI 小幅改善，关税或有反复—兼 评 5 月 PMI 数据》-2025.6.1 宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（联系人） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070017 事件：5 月 CPI 同比-0.1%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.1%；PPI 同比-3.3%，预期-3.2%， 前值-2.7%。 旅游、医疗服务带动服务 CPI 超季节性。5 月服务 CPI 环比超季节性 0.03 个百 分点，其中旅游、医疗服务价格环比明显超季节性。此外，其他用品及服务项超 季节性 0.48 个百分点，或指向 5 月贵金属饰品的价格上升仍是核心 CPI 回升的 重要原因，但较 4 月支撑作用明显降低，表明从边际上看，核心消费价格有所回 暖。 PPI 同比回落，能源、黑色 ...

宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 延续改善、PPI 同比降幅走阔 5 月物价数据解读 2025年6月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 5 月 CPI 环比由涨转降至-0.2%(前值 0.1%),同比下降 0.1%(前值-0.1%), 过去五年(春节在1月份,下同)的季节性环比均值为-0.3%,其中食品价格 环比下降 0.2%(前值 0.2%)、过去五年环比均值为-1.1%;非食品价格环比 下降 0.2%(前值 0.1%)，过去五年环比均值为 0。核心 CPI 环比由涨转平, 同比涨幅扩大至 0.6%,涨幅比上月扩大 0.1 个百分点。PPI 环比下降 0.4% (前值-0.4%），同比下降 3.3%(前值-2.7%），环比持平、同比降幅走阔 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The upcoming first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will boost market risk appetite and help the stock index futures oscillate upward in the short term. However, the decline in import and export growth rates in May, the year-on-year and month-on-month decline in CPI, and the larger decline in PPI compared to the previous period will, to some extent, suppress the short-term upward movement of stock index futures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Points - On June 9, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 opened slightly higher. IF2506 encountered resistance after rising and oscillated slightly stronger; IH2506 rebounded and then fell back, slightly declining; IC2506 and IM2506 also encountered resistance after rising and slightly increased [2]. - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month, and 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month. In May, exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% previously; imports decreased by 3.4%, compared to a 0.2% decline previously [2]. Macro and Stock Market News - Politburo member and Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [4]. - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month, and 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month [4]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, exports (in RMB) increased by 6.3% year-on-year, down from 9.3% previously; imports decreased by 2.1%, compared to a 0.8% increase previously; the trade surplus was 743.56 billion yuan. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% previously; imports decreased by 3.4%, compared to a 0.2% decline previously; the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars [6]. - China approves a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports and will continue to strengthen the review of compliant applications, and is willing to strengthen communication and dialogue on export control with relevant countries [6]. - At the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was 3285.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.6 billion US dollars from the end of April. The gold reserve was 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the seventh consecutive month of increase [7]. - Minister Wang Wentao and EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis held talks in Paris, discussing issues such as the EU's anti - subsidy case on Chinese electric vehicles, China's anti - dumping case on EU brandy, and export control. The price commitment negotiation for the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage [7]. - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point. Recently, global central banks have started a wave of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on June 5, the Indian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% on June 6, and the Russian central bank cut the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 20% on the same day [8]. - In May, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 139,000 (the previous value was revised down to 147,000), higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The US resumed visa processing for international students at Harvard University. Four major overseas giants, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC, are bullish on China [8][9]. - On June 9, the A - share market oscillated and climbed. The ChiNext Index was strong, and innovative drug concept stocks led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% at the mid - day session to 3393.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.62%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.22%, the North Star 50 rose 1.08%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 0.55%, the Wind All - A rose 0.63%, the Wind A500 rose 0.31%, the CSI A500 rose 0.32%, and the half - day trading volume of A - shares was 838.618 billion yuan [9]. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - It is expected that IF2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 3879 and 3890 points, with 3890 points being a strong resistance. The support levels are at 3855 and 3848 points, with 3848 points being a strong short - term support [3][10]. - It is expected that IH2506 will likely oscillate and consolidate during the day, with resistance levels at 2689 and 2699 points, and 2699 points being a relatively strong resistance. The support levels are at 2664 and 2653 points, with 2653 points being a relatively strong support [3][12]. - It is expected that IC2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 5817 and 5850 points, with 5850 points being a strong short - term resistance. The support levels are at 5725 and 5708 points, with 5708 points being a strong support [3][12]. - It is expected that IM2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 6200 and 6250 points, with 6250 points being a relatively strong short - term resistance. The support levels are at 6100 and 6077 points, with 6077 points being a strong support [3][13]. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IF in June 2025 will likely oscillate stronger, with resistance levels at 3933 and 3983 points, and support levels at 3750 and 3675 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IH in June 2025 will likely oscillate stronger, with resistance levels at 2750 and 2766 points, and support levels at 2600 and 2572 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IC in June 2025 will likely oscillate strongly and widely, with resistance levels at 5853 and 5962 points, and support levels at 5508 and 5434 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IM in June 2025 will likely oscillate strongly and widely, with resistance levels at 6332 and 6505 points, and support levels at 5844 and 5757 points [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GSSC Fundamental High - Frequency Index remained stable this week, with an increase of 0.1 points week - on - week and 5.0 points year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds was long, with a signal factor of 5.4% (previous value: 5.8%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase, while tire开工率 declined [1][9][16]. - In total demand, the decline in the real - estate sales high - frequency index narrowed year - on - year; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase; the year - on - year increase in the export high - frequency index narrowed; and the consumer high - frequency index maintained a stable year - on - year increase [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month CPI forecast remained at - 0.1%, and the month - on - month PPI forecast improved from - 0.2% to - 0.1% [1][10]. - The inventory high - frequency index showed a narrowing year - on - year increase; the transportation high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase; the financing high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remained Stable - The current GSSC Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 126.0 points (previous value: 125.9 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points (previous value: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds was long, with a signal factor of 5.4% (previous value: 5.8%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Tire开工率 Declined - The industrial production high - frequency index was 125.5 (previous value: 125.4), with a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points (previous value: 4.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. Electric furnace开工率 was 64.7% (previous value: 65.4%); polyester开工率 was 88.9% (previous value: 90.9%); semi - tire开工率 was 73.9% (previous value: 78.3%); full - tire开工率 was 63.5% (previous value: 64.8%); PTA开工率 was 78.6% (previous value: 77.6%); PX开工率 was 84.6% (previous value: 80.6%); and the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port was 47.6 tons (previous value: 47.3 tons) [1][9][16]. 3.3 Real - Estate Sales: New Home Sales Were Continuously Negative Year - on - Year - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 21.0 million square meters (previous value: 31.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 3.7% (previous value: 10.0%) [27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt开工率 Rebounded - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index was 118.1 (previous value: 117.9), with a year - on - year increase of 1.6 points (previous value: 1.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The开工率 of asphalt plants was 31.3% (previous value: 27.7%) [1][9][38]. 3.5 Exports: Container Freight Index for Exports Continued to Rise - The CCFI index was 1155 points (previous value: 1118 points); the export price index of Yiwu small commodities was 104 points (previous value: 108 points); the RJ/CRB index was 297.6 points (previous value: 292.3 points) [45]. 3.6 Consumption: Retail and Wholesale of Passenger Cars by Manufacturers Increased - The retail volume of passenger cars by manufacturers was 95,364 units (previous value: 60,823 units); the wholesale volume of passenger cars by manufacturers was 156,618 units (previous value: 75,923 units); the average daily box office was 82.57 million yuan (previous value: 34.35 million yuan) [57]. 3.7 CPI: Pork Prices Continued to Fall - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.7 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.3 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens was 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.4 yuan/kg) [66]. 3.8 PPI: Rebar Prices Continued to Fall, Copper Prices Continued to Rise - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port was 609 yuan/ton (previous value: 611 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 65 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 64 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper was 9720 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9650 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was 2455 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2466 US dollars/ton) [72]. 3.9 Transportation: Passenger Traffic Declined - The passenger traffic of the subway in first - tier cities was 36.66 million person - times (previous value: 39.01 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index was 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points) [82]. 3.10 Inventory: Aluminum Inventory Continued to Rise - The aluminum inventory was 165,000 tons (previous value: 138,000 tons); the soda ash inventory was 1.627 million tons (previous value: 1.613 million tons) [88]. 3.11 Financing: Local Government Bonds Declined, Credit Bonds Rebounded - The net financing of local government bonds was 5.05 billion yuan (previous value: 13.74 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds was 12.46 billion yuan (previous value: 5.12 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate was 1.08% (previous value: 1.10%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate was - 0.73% (previous value: - 0.73%) [99].

6月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，5月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%；工业 生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分 点。 光大证券研究所分析师刘星辰对券商中国记者表示，CPI同比保持低位，主要受能源价格下跌拖累。核心CPI 同比增速回升，与衣着、部分耐用消费品、出行类服务价格回升有关，指向在前期提振消费等一系列政策推动 下，居民消费需求正逐步回暖。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，5月份核心CPI同比涨幅扩大，国内经济韧性凸显。 5月份"CPI—PPI"同比剪刀差扩大，反映出工业部门需求不济的情况有所加剧，但企业数据也反映部分行业供 需关系有所改善，结构性特征更加明显，如宾馆住宿价格环比涨幅创近十年同期新高、光伏、锂电等新能源行 业供需关系有所改善。 市场机构分析认为，5月CPI环比由涨转降，持平于历史同期平均水平，而从PPI来看，输入性价格下行压力依 然偏大。 能源价格影响拖累CPI表现 自3月以来，CPI连续三个月同比降幅为0.1%，环比看，5月CPI由涨转降。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍，能源 ...