Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In December 2025, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.9% and rural areas by 0.6% [1][3][22] - Food prices rose by 1.1%, while non-food prices increased by 0.8%. The prices of consumer goods went up by 1.0%, and service prices saw a 0.6% increase [1][3][24] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking a continuous increase for four months [22][24] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In December 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline was narrower than the previous month by 0.3 percentage points. Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.2%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [12][13][27] - The prices of industrial producers' outgoing products were influenced by a 2.1% decline in production materials, which affected the overall PPI level [16][21] - The prices of coal mining and washing, as well as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, showed positive changes, with respective increases of 1.3% and 1.0% month-on-month [25][27] Group 3: Price Changes in Specific Categories - In December, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol rose by 0.8% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the CPI increase [6][22] - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 18.2%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 4.4%, significantly impacting the CPI [6][24] - The prices of industrial producer inputs, particularly in the construction materials and non-metallic categories, saw a decline of 6.4% year-on-year [19][21] Group 4: Overall Economic Context - The expansion of domestic demand and consumption policies continued to show effects, with increased consumer demand leading to a rise in the CPI [22][23] - The overall industrial production prices reflected a mixed trend, with some sectors experiencing price increases due to improved supply-demand structures [25][27] - The overall economic environment is characterized by a combination of rising consumer prices and declining producer prices, indicating a complex economic landscape [22][27]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% year-on-year [1][2][3] - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices of industrial consumer goods, which increased by 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI [2] - Food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly impacting the CPI, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing price increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively [3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of increases, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to 1.9% [1][4][5] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, with coal mining prices rising by 1.3% and lithium-ion battery prices by 1.0% [4] - The year-on-year decline in PPI was mitigated by improved market conditions and the implementation of macroeconomic policies, with certain sectors like coal mining and battery manufacturing experiencing reduced price declines [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the highest level since March 2023 [1][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months [4] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a rise in food prices, which increased by 1.1%, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant price hikes of 18.2% and 4.4% respectively [4][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5][7] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 1.9%, but the decline was narrower by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating some positive changes in certain industries [7] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, reflecting improvements in supply-demand dynamics and ongoing policy effects [5][6]

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the CPI and PPI data for December 2025 on January 9 [2] - A press conference will be held by the Ministry of Commerce to discuss the progress of the national water network construction on January 9 [3] - A total of 8 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked today, with a total market value of 2.829 billion yuan [4] Group 2 - 11 companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with 5 companies announcing new repurchase plans [4] - Among the new repurchase plans, two companies plan to repurchase over 10 million yuan, with the highest amounts being 120 million yuan and 50 million yuan [4] - Five A-shares will undergo equity registration today, with the highest dividend payouts being 5.00 yuan, 2.00 yuan, and 1.23 yuan per 10 shares [6]

Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2026 is expected to exhibit a complex system characterized by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability, showing high instability but resilience [1] - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for January 2026 is reported at 50.32, indicating a recovery and maintaining a prosperous state [2][3] Inflation and Price Predictions - The average predicted year-on-year CPI growth for December 2025 is 0.8%, while the PPI is forecasted at -2% [5][6] - CPI predictions range from a minimum of 0.5% to a maximum of 0.9%, indicating a slight increase from November's 0.7% [6] - The PPI predictions range from -2.3% to -1.9%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's -2.2% [6] Industrial and Investment Growth - The predicted growth rate for industrial added value in December 2025 is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's 4.8% [9][10] - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by an average of -2.2%, showing a recovery from November's -2.6% [11] - Real estate development investment is forecasted to decrease by -15.8%, with signs of a narrowing decline in transaction volumes [12] Trade and Export Forecasts - The trade surplus for December 2025 is predicted to be $1113.5 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous month [13][14] - Exports are expected to grow by 2.5%, down from 5.9% in the previous month, while imports are forecasted to increase by 0.7% [14][15] Financing and Monetary Policy - New loans are projected to reach 7182.5 billion yuan in December 2025, recovering from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [15][16] - The total social financing is expected to average 1.8 trillion yuan, lower than the previous month's 2.5 trillion yuan [16][17] - M2 growth is predicted to remain at 8%, consistent with November's figures [18] Policy Directions - Fiscal policy is anticipated to become more proactive, with an increase in the scale of government debt and continued support for local debt initiatives [20][21] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [20][21]

Core Viewpoints - The internal demand remains weak in December due to base effects and policy timing, but it is expected to recover in early 2026 as expansionary policies are introduced [2][3] GDP - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is projected to be around 4.3%, a decline from the previous quarter due to factors such as a slowdown in industrial production and construction [5][15] - Industrial production growth is expected to be 5.2% year-on-year in Q4, down from 5.8% in Q3, with December's growth at 6.0% [5][15] - The construction sector is anticipated to see a further decline in GDP growth, with projections of -3% in Q4 compared to -2.3% in Q3 [5][15] Prices - CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in December, with a year-on-year increase from 0.7% to around 0.8% [6][16] - PPI is projected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with a year-on-year improvement from -2.2% to approximately -2.0% [6][16] Production - Industrial production growth is expected to be around 6.0% in December, with a notable seasonal rebound observed in previous months [18] - Manufacturing investment growth is projected to decline to 1.3%, while real estate investment is expected to drop by 16.8% [7][22] External Trade - December exports are expected to grow by around 3.5% year-on-year, while imports are projected to increase by 1% [19][21] - The strong external demand is expected to support export growth despite a high base effect [19][20] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to decline to around -3.3% for the year, with significant drops in real estate and infrastructure investments [22][23] - New infrastructure projects worth over 400 billion yuan are expected to be approved, which may stabilize investment in early 2026 [22] Real Estate Sales - Real estate sales are projected to decline by around 15% in December, with a cumulative decrease of 8.6% for the year [24][23] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 1.0% in December, with essential consumption showing a growth rate of 3.5% [26] - The automotive sector is anticipated to continue its decline, impacting overall retail performance [26] Financial Sector - New social financing is expected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan in December, a decrease of 470 billion yuan compared to the previous year [27] - M2 growth is projected to be around 7.9%, while M1 is expected to see a slight increase due to seasonal factors [28]

元旦"微度假"热度高 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.04 2026-01-06 国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 1 期） 本报告导读： 消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 投资要点： 宏 观 周 报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 元旦居民出行热度高，"微度假"是主流。跨区域人员流动以 19.5%的 同比增速创近期新高，铁路、水路客运增速领跑，中短途微度假成 主流，服务消费中游乐需求表现亮眼，但商品消费受年末翘尾效应 消退影响有所回落。其他高频数据显示，投资方面，地产销售边际 回落，不过其中一线城市限购放松释放部分需求，基建与开工建设 仍受新项目不足等因素制约。进出口方面，港口运行平稳，国内进 口运价与 BDI 指数走势分化。生产方面，多数行业开工率回落，呈 现分化态势，石化受成本抬升、汽车受需求回落影响表现平淡，锂 电、光伏中上游制造等新兴行业表现较好。物价上，PPI 商品价格普 遍回升，CPI 表现分化。流动性层面，人民币汇率升破 7.0 大关，资 金利率与国债收益率有所上行。 风险提示：贸 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy and Policy Outlook - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Target**: The GDP growth target is expected to remain around 5%, which has been largely confirmed by the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) [3] - **Fiscal Policy**: Initial fiscal package is flat, with a potential mid-year top-up of 0.5% of GDP confirmed [3] - **Monetary Policy**: Anticipated interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts of 25-50 basis points, but with a dovish tone indicating limited room for further cuts [3] - **Infrastructure Investment**: A front-loaded infrastructure push is confirmed for Q1, focusing on urban renewal, AI+, and green transition [3] - **Housing Policy**: Vague language around housing guardrails, with potential for inventory buybacks and adjustments to provident-fund financing to support mortgage interest subsidies [3] - **Service Consumption**: Selective tweaks in service consumption are expected in the second half of 2026, but specifics are pending [3] - **Anti-involution Strategy**: A gradual, market-oriented approach is being adopted, though execution challenges remain [3] Trade-in Scheme Updates - **Equipment Upgrade**: Coverage expanded to include elevator installations, elderly care institutions, and fire rescue facilities, with less subsidy per vehicle on average [4] - **Consumer Goods Trade-in**: Coverage narrowed from 12 categories in 2025 to 6 in 2026, with reduced subsidies for home appliances and consumer electronics [4] Currency Insights - **USDCNY Strength**: The recent strengthening of the USDCNY is attributed to a weaker dollar, while the RMB basket remains stable [5][6] - **Seasonal Trends**: USDCNY typically strengthens at year-end due to foreign exchange conversions by exporters [11] Inflation and Economic Indicators - **CPI Trends**: Weak underlying demand indicated by food CPI; a more sustained increase in core CPI may not occur until 2H26-2027 [16] - **GDP Deflator**: Expected to remain negative with nominal growth likely staying below 4% in 2026, with a potential mild positive shift from 2027 due to welfare upgrades [18] - **PMI Insights**: December PMI strength attributed to quarter-end production pushes, robust exports, and infrastructure pass-through [20] Additional Important Points - **PPI Expectations**: Month-over-month PPI is likely to soften in December, although year-over-year may rebound from a favorable base [22] - **Market Sentiment**: The overall economic sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with a focus on gradual policy adjustments and infrastructure investments to stimulate growth [3][20]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 05 日 PPI呈现"上半年磨底、三季度分化、10-11月温和回升"的修复路 径。8 月是"反内卷"政策落地之后，PPI 的关键分水岭。分行业来看，绝 大多数高权重行业均陷入负值区间，仅有色金属链条形成唯一的正向支 撑。究其原因，内需不足与"内卷式"竞争形成"双重压制"，PPI 的下行压 力主要源于以下两类核心行业：第一类是高权重的中游制造行业，主要 受"内卷"竞争拖累。第二类是上游资源与原材料行业，受地产基建需求 疲软与国际油价回落的共振拖累。 ► 2026 年 CPI 展望：猪周期有望企稳，通胀中枢温和抬升 在 2026 年基期轮换中，猪肉权重有望上升，金银珠宝权重或下 降。回顾 2016 年与 2020 年两次基期轮换，均呈现"食品降、服务升"的 特征，主要遵循"消费升级"主线。2026 年权重调整逻辑或发生逆转：其 一，地产供需格局重塑，居住项权重面临下调（预计-3.0pct）。其二， 疫后修复弹性释放，服务类消费权重显著抬升（预计文娱+2.2pct，交 通+1.4pct）。其三，恩格尔系数回归下行通道，食品烟酒权重延续调降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for December 2025 reached 117.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6%, indicating a recovery in the commodity market driven by improved supply and demand dynamics and increased business confidence [1][3]. Summary by Category Overall Market Performance - The CBPI has shown a continuous month-on-month increase for eight consecutive months, reaching its highest level since June 2024, suggesting a strengthening of economic growth momentum [1]. - The outlook for 2026 indicates potential challenges from global economic recovery, but supportive macroeconomic policies and structural economic upgrades in China are expected to foster new demand for commodities [1]. Price Index Breakdown - The price indices for various categories in December 2025 are as follows: - Energy Price Index: 97.8 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, down 6.9% year-on-year - Chemical Price Index: 95.6 points, up 0.3% month-on-month, down 12.6% year-on-year - Black Metal Price Index: 77.5 points, up 0.4% month-on-month, down 5% year-on-year - Non-ferrous Metal Price Index: 145.2 points, up 4.9% month-on-month, up 14.8% year-on-year - Mineral Price Index: 71.6 points, up 0.8% month-on-month, down 12.2% year-on-year - Agricultural Product Price Index: 98.1 points, up 2.5% month-on-month, up 5.5% year-on-year [3][4]. Commodity Price Changes - Among 50 monitored commodities, 31 (62%) saw price increases, while 19 (38%) experienced declines in December 2025. The top three commodities with the highest month-on-month price increases were lithium carbonate (up 15.5%), refined tin (up 11.7%), and apples (up 8.5%). The largest declines were seen in caustic soda (down 7.2%), ethylene glycol (down 6.8%), and coking coal (down 6.5%) [5].