Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff situation has slightly heated up, but the uncertainty has decreased. Some long - position holders chose to take profits, causing the precious metals market to decline under pressure. The recent economic "soft data" in the US, such as inflation expectations and consumer confidence, has significantly improved compared to the initial period of tariff announcements. As the overall tariff uncertainty has slowed down, countries are reaching agreements with the US through negotiation and compromise, leading to a continuous increase in market risk appetite. The VIX volatility index is at a low level, and the upward movement of gold prices has been continuously hindered [2]. - Driven by the strong performance in June (+$7.6 billion), global gold ETF holdings increased by $38 billion in the first half of 2025. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical uncertainty, the safe - haven investment demand for gold remains relatively stable. Whether core countries can reach an agreement with the US before the deadline is the key factor for the subsequent trend of gold prices. If the trade negotiations progress optimistically, gold prices may continue to be under pressure [2]. - The formal passage of Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has intensified market concerns about the long - term fiscal problems of the US government, which may accelerate the global de - dollarization process, weaken the demand for the US dollar as a traditional safe - haven asset, and boost the monetary attribute of gold [2]. - In the case of silver, the global de - stocking cycle has led to a continuously tight supply - demand structure. Coupled with the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve helping to repair its industrial attribute, silver prices are expected to remain resilient. There is still some room for the gold - silver ratio to repair, but short - term correction risks need to be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 766.82 yuan/gram, down 9.4 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8,899 yuan/kilogram, down 54 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract position of Shanghai gold was 181,258 lots, an increase of 2,127 lots; the main contract position of Shanghai silver was 327,567 lots, a decrease of 10,577 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 129,215 lots, a decrease of 10,912 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract was 94,543 lots, an increase of 3,196 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 21,585 kilograms, an increase of 27 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,320,909 kilograms, a decrease of 13,822 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 763.39 yuan/gram, down 8.49 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,864 yuan/kilogram, down 33 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.43 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.91 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 35 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 21 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 946.51 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,935.15 tons, an increase of 66.41 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 201,980 contracts, an increase of 6,976 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC was 63,400 contracts, an increase of 453 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.98%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 16%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.55%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.54%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump stated on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and he was planning to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals. He would impose a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. He also called on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign immediately and said that a new study by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) found that tariffs had no impact on inflation [2]. - The UK will not be able to reach an agreement on steel and aluminum trade with the US this week, missing the July 9 deadline set by the White House, but is still expected to reach an agreement by the end of the month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - International crude oil prices are affected by factors such as the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ production increases, and Trump's tariff policies, showing a weak performance on the day but still supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the current low inventory provides strong support. The effectiveness of PX in the future depends on unexpected factors. PTA is facing new device commissions in the third quarter, with a time mismatch with PX. PTA demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced production by polyester factories, and the inventory relative value is at a five - year high, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak situation. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA is still supported without significant polyester production cuts, but may weaken if production cuts expand. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain is tilting towards raw materials. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 8, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was $68.33 per barrel, up 0.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $70.15 per barrel, up 0.82%. On July 7, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577 per ton, down 0.30%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $715.5 per ton, down 0.14%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $841.67 per ton, up 0.24% [1] - **PTA**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,710 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; the settlement price was 4,786 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,798 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,805 yuan per ton, up 0.31%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $635 per ton on July 7, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 76 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis was 95 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan [1] - **PX**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the settlement price was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.33%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,725 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $848 per ton, up 0.71%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $817 per ton on July 7, up 0.25%. The PXN spread was $264.67 per ton on July 7, up 1.44%; the PX - MX spread was $126.17 per ton on July 7, up 2.44%. The basis was 29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - **PR**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,866 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 5,922 yuan per ton, down 0.64%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 79 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan; in the South China market, it was 134 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 8, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of polyester fibers such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D remained unchanged. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,700 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [2] Operating Conditions - On July 8, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, 87.30%, 71.93%, and 61.22% respectively. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber decreased by 7 and 6 percentage points respectively, while that of polyester chips increased by 4 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the daily trading volume being 850,100 lots. PX prices are in a consolidation phase, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,696 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), and the daily trading volume being 180,100 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,866 yuan per ton (down 0.03%), and the daily trading volume being 32,800 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Macro News - The U.S. government will announce tariff letters or agreements with trade partners starting from July 7, with a potential return to "reciprocal tariffs" for countries that do not reach agreements by August 1 [1] - President Trump signed an executive order to review and potentially eliminate tax credits for solar and wind energy projects, directing the Treasury to phase out these credits [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated plans to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to discuss trade and other issues [1] Institutional Views - The deadline for tariff negotiations has been extended to August 1, with new tariff rates ranging from 25% to 40% set to take effect [1] - Financial markets reacted calmly, with mixed performance in major U.S. stock indices and fluctuations in the dollar index [1] - Precious metals are expected to continue fluctuating, with trading strategies suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1] - COMEX gold is trading between $3,250 and $3,480 per ounce, while COMEX silver is between $35.0 and $37.4 per ounce; domestic gold futures are between 750 and 800 yuan per gram, and silver futures between 8,450 and 9,075 yuan per kilogram [1]

Group 1 - Japan's actual GDP is estimated to decrease by 0.2% with a 10% reciprocal tariff and by 0.4% if the tariff increases to 25% [2][5] - The export value of Japan in 2024 is projected to be 107.0879 trillion yen, with exports to the US amounting to 21.2947 trillion yen, representing about 20% of total exports [2] - The total export value of aircraft parts, including those exported to the US, is 307.9 billion yen, with 76.5% of this amount going to the US [4] Group 2 - The export ratio of construction and mining machinery to the US exceeds 50%, with Komatsu's sales in North America accounting for 30% of its total sales [5] - The machine tool and metal processing machinery export ratio to the US is 23.4%, with US orders making up about 20% of total orders for Japanese manufacturers [5] - The Japan Economic Federation expressed concerns that the new tariff rates would have a significant impact on Japanese companies' investment strategies and profitability [5] Group 3 - The Imperial Credit Corporation predicted a 5% increase in domestic bankruptcies in Japan for the fiscal year 2025, reaching 10,574 cases, if tariffs rise to 24% [6] - The chief researcher at the Imperial Credit Corporation indicated that if tariffs increase to 25%, the number of bankrupt companies is likely to rise further [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by President Trump is expected to significantly impact the copper market and related stocks, with immediate reactions observed in stock prices and futures trading [4][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Copper-related stocks in the A-share market experienced volatility, with Northern Copper rising over 5% before turning negative, while Zijin Mining and Pengxin Resources fell by over 3% and 2%, respectively [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, China Daye Nonferrous Metals saw a rise of over 13%, and Jiangxi Copper rose by over 3% at one point [2]. Group 2: Tariff Announcement Details - Trump announced plans to raise copper tariffs to 50%, which is earlier and higher than industry expectations, although the effective date remains unspecified [4][5]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce confirmed the completion of an investigation into the proposed tariffs, aligning copper tariffs with those already imposed on steel and aluminum [5]. Group 3: Impact on Copper Prices - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper futures surged by 17% at one point, closing with a 13.12% increase, marking the largest single-day gain since 1989 [10]. - Analysts predict that the clarity of the tariff implementation timeline will significantly affect non-U.S. market pricing, potentially leading to a decrease in copper prices in non-U.S. regions [12]. - The 50% tariff is expected to add approximately $5,000 per ton or $2.25 per pound to U.S. copper prices, which may lead to demand destruction risks due to the current high price levels [12].

Group 1 - The uncertainty created by tariffs is affecting the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is willing to wait for clear evidence of the impact of the trade war on prices before making any rate cuts [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is perceived to be high at 63%, but some analysts believe the Fed may hold steady [1][2] Group 2 - UBS predicts that tariff levels could reach around 15% by the end of the year, contributing to moderate stagflation risks [2] - The Fed has raised its forecasts for unemployment and inflation for the end of the year, indicating concerns about economic conditions [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut this month are below 5%, but optimism for a policy easing by December is at 96% [2]

Group 1 - The EU is nearing a trade agreement with the US, which may involve higher tariffs than those negotiated by the UK, causing concern among some European nations [2][3] - A temporary "framework" agreement is being prepared, setting US tariffs at 10%, aligning with the baseline tariffs imposed on the UK by Trump [2][3] - The EU does not expect to achieve the same market access in the US for steel, automobiles, and other products as the UK has [2][3] Group 2 - The UK has secured better terms on sector-specific tariffs, including a 10% tariff on a quota of 100,000 cars, compared to the 25% faced by other exporters [4] - The UK also received zero tariffs on steel and aluminum, although implementation is still pending [4] - In return, the UK agreed to meet US demands regarding supply chain roles and provided tariff-free quotas for beef and bioethanol [4] Group 3 - The EU is preparing to reduce its trade surplus with the US by committing to purchase more American weapons and liquefied natural gas [5] - The EU has paused its retaliatory actions during negotiations but plans to implement counter-tariffs on $210 billion worth of US goods starting July 14 [5] - A proposal for additional tariffs on $95 billion worth of US goods, including aircraft and alcohol, is being prepared, requiring approval from member states [5]

Group 1 - UBS's report addresses ten challenging questions from investors regarding global economic conditions and strategic outlook [1] - The report highlights that current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, with global growth tracking at a mere 1.3% year-on-year, placing it in the 8th lowest historical percentile [1] - The report indicates that the recent dollar sell-off is not indicative of a long-term depreciation trend, as it lacks key elements seen in previous cycles, such as improved economic growth in other regions [2] Group 2 - The initial impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation data is expected to manifest in the July CPI report, with significant effects potentially delayed by one to two months [3] - There is a notable discrepancy between reported trade data and container shipping data, suggesting that foreign exporters are not significantly lowering prices to absorb tariff costs [4] - The U.S. budget deficit is primarily influenced by the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about supply issues persisting, but historical demand fluctuations are expected to absorb any supply increases [5] Group 3 - Evidence suggests a reduction in foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets, with April data indicating asset sell-offs, although the continuation of this trend remains uncertain [6] - The U.S. stock market typically outperforms during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is largely driven by the U.S. economy, with European markets showing unexpected resilience [7] - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to provide a 45 basis point boost to economic growth by 2026, despite initially increasing the deficit [9] Group 4 - Central banks globally are adjusting their policies in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of 1-3 rate cuts, while the Fed faces a dilemma balancing inflation and employment concerns [10] - China has implemented fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 1.5-2% of GDP, with further monetary easing anticipated, including a potential 20-30 basis point rate cut [11]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Vietnam Technology Commercial Bank stated that the 20% tariffs imposed by the United States on Vietnam will not hinder foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects confidence in Vietnam's ability to attract FDI despite external economic pressures [1] - The bank's leadership suggests that the impact of tariffs may be mitigated by other favorable investment conditions in Vietnam [1]

现货铜 花旗：美国铜关税或将LME铜价推低至9000美元以下 金十数据7月9日讯，花旗研究分析师Tom Mulqueen表示，特朗普周二宣布，美国将对铜征收50%的关 税，这可能会使LME铜价跌至每吨9000美元以下。美商务部长卢特尼克隔夜表示，特朗普将在8月1日 或更早之前对铜征收50%的关税。关税实施时间表的明确性对非美国市场定价至关重要，这将终结近月 来非美国地区现货铜大量流向美国的现象。从0到3个月的前景来看，这应会推动非美国地区铜价回落至 每吨8800美元。 ...