新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-05 持货商存在挺价情绪 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-08-04，沪铜主力合约开于 78380元/吨，收于 78330元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.09%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 73,810元/吨，收于 74,060 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.47%。 现货情况： 矿端方面，外电8月2日消息，Koryx Copper公司已完成此前宣布的包销公开发行，此次共发行1905万股普通股，每 股价格1.05加元，为公司带来总计2000万加元的总募集资金。这其中包括承销商全额行使超额配售权所对应的股份。 该公司同时完成了一项非经纪私募配售，以相同发行价额外发行476万股普通股，总募集资金约500万加元。公司 计划将此次公开发行和私募配售的净收益用于推进其位于纳米比亚的Haib铜矿项目的技术研究，继续该矿区的勘 探工作，同时也将部分资金用于营运资本及一般企业用途。 冶炼及进口方面，卡莫阿–卡库拉50万吨/年的高技术一步炼铜冶炼厂将于2025年9月初点火烘炉。冶炼厂最低可以 按50%产能运行，相当于约25万吨铜的年化产量。公司预计，矿山现场的 ...

据"绵阳网警"8月5日消息，7月22日，江油市发生一未成年人在校外被辱骂、殴打警情，警方已依法对违法人员作出了治安处罚，并按程序对其中两名违法人 员开展送专门学校矫治教育的工作。 其间，网上出现"江油市公安局副局长的女儿打的人""施暴者父亲为律师""施暴者亲妈是江油市一级警督"等信息。经核实，3名违法人员的父母分别有2人无 业、2人在省外务工、1人为本地售货员、1人为本地外卖员，所传违法人员父母职业身份信息为谣言。 经查，2025年8月4日，网民丁某（女，41岁）、杨某琳（女，27岁）看到网传施暴视频后，为博眼球编造谣言发于微信群和社交平台，引发公开传播扩散， 严重扰乱公共秩序，造成恶劣社会影响。 目前，丁某、杨某琳已被公安机关依法行政处罚。 辟谣。 江阳木成牛朝凌 他泰有多八位,秋早到荷达云多八个 到20分钟出来 据说施暴家长急汇油市公安局副局长 (待核实)被施暴女子父母是聋哑人和残疾人视频可 草解 事情 见正在跪求江油书记解决问 clu 教育不解民情 下定 L # 1 台前 # 周岁犯罪 在演十 BE AN HE 【中华人民实和国际资】 第十三条规定 已满十六周岁的人犯罪,应当负刑事责 任。 已演十四周岁 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of tariffs and trade agreements on various Asian economies, particularly focusing on South Korea and India, as well as the implications for the cross-border payment industry and stablecoin developments in Hong Kong. Key Points on Tariffs and Trade Agreements - Asian exporters have shifted some tariff costs to U.S. consumers, with China's tariffs reaching 30% and overall tariffs in the region expected to average 24% this year, up from 5% at the beginning of the year [1][3] - The U.S. will bear approximately $450 billion in tariff changes, while Asia will face a burden of about $260 billion due to these tariffs [3] - South Korea's trade agreement with the U.S. has reduced automotive tariffs from 25% to 15%, and South Korea has committed to invest $100 billion in various sectors, including semiconductors [5][6] - The trade agreement has alleviated some economic uncertainties for South Korea, leading to a growth forecast that is 1.1% above consensus for 2025, driven by fiscal stimulus and moderate domestic consumption [6][7] Impact on Specific Industries - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian exports, which has a limited direct impact on India's GDP (approximately 2%), but the indirect effects due to global economic slowdown are concerning [8][10] - Key sectors in India that are sensitive to U.S. tariffs include electronics, textiles, and pharmaceuticals, with textiles having a 40% share of the U.S. export market [9][10] - The Gift Nifty index is expected to be impacted by around 70 basis points due to the tariff changes, with agricultural tariffs being a significant negotiation point [11] Developments in Stablecoins and Cross-Border Payments - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a testing ground for stablecoins, with the Financial Authority planning to ban cryptocurrency trading while exploring stable digital currencies [13][14] - The acceptance of stablecoins in e-commerce will take time due to the maturity of existing cross-border payment tools like Visa and PayPal, and regulatory uncertainties may increase risks [15] - Stablecoin issuers and fintech companies are expected to be the primary beneficiaries of this emerging market, although traditional banking may also be affected [17] Regulatory and Market Considerations - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will begin accepting applications for stablecoin issuance, with a limited number of licenses expected to be granted initially [14] - The development of stablecoins linked to the Hong Kong dollar may be easier due to its peg to the U.S. dollar, while the growth of RMB-linked stablecoins may be slower due to the smaller offshore RMB pool [16] - The transition to new payment systems will require significant capital investment and time to gain market acceptance, as evidenced by challenges faced in domestic payment systems in China [19] Conclusion - The overall economic outlook for South Korea appears cautiously optimistic due to the trade agreement with the U.S., while India faces challenges from tariff increases. The stablecoin market in Hong Kong is poised for growth, but acceptance in e-commerce will require time and investment.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - Due to weak US employment data and strong Fed rate - cut signals, market risk appetite increases, the dollar index drops, and precious metals oscillate and stabilize. Silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - The US - India tariff negotiation continues, the dollar index weakens, which is positive for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will be in a mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. - The coke market is still in a state of tight supply and demand after five rounds of price hikes. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - The steel market returns to fundamentals. Due to high - temperature and rainy weather, demand is weak. Steel mills have good profits, and inventory reduction is under pressure. Steel prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. - Iron ore supply and demand are stable, which strongly supports the price. It is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - The pig market has a strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - The palm oil market has a weak fundamental, but there is little room for a sharp downward movement in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The rapeseed meal price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - The short - fiber market has a weak fundamental, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - OPEC+ maintains a production - increase stance, but the production increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. - The overall supply and demand of rubber are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: US employment data is weak, Fed officials signal rate cuts, the dollar index drops, and silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - **Gold**: US - India tariff negotiation affects the dollar index, and gold is in mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production increase, but the actual increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. Industrial Metals - **Coke**: After five rounds of price hikes, the market is in tight supply - demand, and it will oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and it is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - **Steel**: The market returns to fundamentals, demand is weak, and prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental is weak, and there is little short - term downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - **LLDPE**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply and demand are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The fundamental is weak, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6].

Group 1 - The interview with President Trump on CNBC's "Squawk Box" will cover topics such as the economy, employment, the Federal Reserve, and tariffs [1]

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper price rebounds due to overseas equity market recovery, mine - end production cut concerns, but upward height is limited in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates, with a short - term trend of weakening oscillation due to inventory accumulation and uncertain trade situation [3]. - Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc price has an increased risk of decline due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. - Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the strengthening of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the weak supply - demand situation [6][7]. - Nickel price may decline as the macro - atmosphere cools, demand is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to fall [8]. - Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom due to the expected improvement in the supply - demand relationship, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina price may face an over - capacity situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.78% to $9708/ton, Shanghai copper main contract reached 78370 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2175 tons to 139575 tons, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 16000 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: In the current off - season, the upward space of copper price is limited, with the Shanghai copper main contract running between 77600 - 79000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2570/ton, Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20440 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated, LME aluminum inventory increased by 925 tons to 463725 tons [3][18]. - Price Outlook: Aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract running between 20350 - 20600 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2540 - 2600 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: Shanghai lead index rose 0.09% to 16751 yuan/ton, LME lead 3S rose to $1974.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased to 6.63 tons, LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. Zinc - Price: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.32% to 22249 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3S fell to $2734.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to accumulate to 10.73 tons, LME zinc inventory was 97000 tons [5][18]. - Production: In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 tons, and it is expected to reach 62.15 tons in August [5]. - Price Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. Tin - Price: On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 266590 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [6]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term smelting faces raw material pressure; domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [6][7]. - Price Outlook: Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton and LME tin price between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel price rebounded slightly, nickel iron price was stable after rising, and refined nickel price rebounded slightly with flat trading [8]. - Market Situation: Macro - atmosphere cools, stainless steel price falls, and nickel ore price is expected to decline [8]. - Price Outlook: Nickel price is expected to decline, with the Shanghai nickel main contract between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index was 68832 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the LC2509 contract closed at 68920 yuan, also unchanged [10]. - Market Situation: The fundamental improvement depends on the actual reduction of the mine end, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve before the peak season [10]. - Price Outlook: Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract between 66800 - 70900 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.25% to 3224 yuan/ton, overseas FOB price fell to $376/ton, and the import window was closed [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipt was 0.66 tons, remaining at a historical low [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 between 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12925 yuan/ton, up 0.66%, and spot prices in some regions increased [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.66%, but 300 - series inventory increased by 1.00%, and the supply of 316L was tight [14]. - Price Outlook: Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract rose 0.05% to 19930 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased [16]. - Price Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16].

这恰似7万家在华美企的集体焦虑：特朗普的关税大棒已挥出79%的钢铝关税，皮鞋、电子、汽车税率 如火箭般蹿升。企业被逼在两条路间抉择：要么留下拥抱每年6000亿美元的中国市场，要么出走承受万 亿级损失。苹果们突然发现，自己正站在一个没有赢选项的岔路口。 大连苹果直营店关闭卷帘门那一刻，印度媒体欢呼"苹果在中国市场撤退"。可同一天，苹果中国官网挂 出深圳新店预告，标题赫然写着"我们热爱中国"。这家全球市值最高的公司，正上演着一场精神分裂式 的市场摇摆——库克嘴上说"中国制造不可替代"，流水线却加速迁往印度。 ...

Economic Growth Insights - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3%, significantly above the expected 2.6% and a recovery from the previous quarter's -0.5%[6] - Personal consumption increased by 1.4% compared to the previous quarter's 0.5%, while private investment saw a sharp decline of -15.6% from a prior growth of 23.8%[6] - Domestic final sales, which exclude trade, inventory, and government impacts, recorded a mere 1.2% growth, down from 1.9%, indicating a weakening underlying economic momentum[6] Consumption and Investment Trends - Personal consumption, a critical component of GDP, showed a slight recovery but remained low at 1.4%, with goods outperforming services[6] - Private investment's significant contraction of -15.6% contributed to a 3.1% drag on GDP, with both residential and non-residential investments shrinking for two consecutive quarters[6] - The decline in consumer confidence and income growth is expected to further suppress consumer demand moving forward[6] Inflation and Policy Outlook - The PCE price index for Q2 2025 rose to 2.6%, exceeding expectations, while the core PCE index reached 2.8%[6] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident in consumer prices, with notable increases in durable goods and services[6] - The market may be overestimating both economic growth and inflation, with potential for monetary policy easing in 2026, contrary to current market pricing[6]

惠誉：美国目前的实际关税税率为17%，比4月份宣布提高对等关税时的估计值低了约8个百分点，但比惠誉6月底的估计值高了约3个百分点。 ...

Core Insights - The actual tariff rate for U.S. imports in May was 8.3%, significantly lower than Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast of 10% to 15% [1] - It is anticipated that the tariff rates will trend towards the forecasted levels in June and July, with implications for inflation [1] - Key factors contributing to the lower-than-expected actual tariff rate include transportation delays, higher-than-expected import volumes from Mexico and Canada under the USMCA, and a significant decline in imports from emerging markets [1] Economic Impact - The expected increase in effective tariff rates in June and July is likely to have a more pronounced effect on U.S. inflation [1] - Historically, the actual impact of tariffs on consumer prices typically manifests 3 to 5 months after implementation, while the economic growth repercussions are observed within 3 months [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that tariffs could lead to a price increase of approximately 1 percentage point in the coming months, which may gradually dissipate as demand weakens [1]