Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's recent focus is on the December non - farm payroll data and the tariff ruling result. The December non - farm payroll data did not cause significant market impact. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.375% in December, exceeding market expectations and well below the previous value of 4.6%, temporarily avoiding the trigger of the Sahm Rule. However, the non - farm employment added in December was 50k, lower than expected and the previous two months' data was revised down by a total of 76k. The labor market demand remains weak. The tariff - related de - dollarization and pre - emptive interest rate cut logic may reverse if the tariff bill is invalidated, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The Federal Reserve's threshold for a January interest rate cut is high, and if the labor market maintains the current "low - speed balance", the short - term monetary easing path may not be supported [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Indicators Exchange Rate - related Indicators - The US dollar index rebounded slightly following the US - Germany interest rate spread. The US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recovered. The difference in the US - Europe Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has also increased [2][5][7] - The difference in long - term inflation expectations between the US and Europe has further declined, and the US long - term inflation expectation is oscillating at a low level [9][12] - The US short - term interest rate expectation is significantly changing, and the difference in short - term interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is rising [14][16] - The euro swap basis shows that the US dollar cross - border liquidity pressure is limited [18] Position and Market Sentiment Indicators - The CFTC net position shows that the US dollar maintains a net short position exposure. The VIX index reflects market volatility [21][20] Bond Spread Indicators - Based on the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits and the US dollar trend show a slight narrowing of the spreads [23] Commodity - related Indicators - The US dollar index and copper price show that the copper price has risen significantly, and the US dollar index and crude oil price show that the crude oil price has rebounded [27]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters [1]. Group 1: Investigation and Legal Threats - The U.S. Department of Justice has issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, threatening prosecution against Powell [4]. - Former President Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell and threatened to sue him, particularly over the costly renovation project of the Federal Reserve building, which Trump claims cost billions [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - On December 10, 2025, Powell announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points over the last three meetings, aimed at stabilizing the labor market and addressing inflation [5]. - Powell indicated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects the federal funds rate to be 3.4% by the end of 2026 and 3.1% by the end of 2027, consistent with previous forecasts [6]. - Powell attributed the current inflation rate exceeding the Fed's 2% target primarily to increased import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, suggesting that the tariff impact may be a one-time price increase [6].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is characterized as a "super week" for global capital markets, with significant macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports expected to heighten market volatility. Key focus areas include inflation dynamics, corporate earnings validation, and geopolitical developments [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. is set to release the December CPI data on January 13, with expectations of a notable rebound, attributed to statistical distortions from the government shutdown rather than genuine inflationary pressures [5][6]. - China's December import and export data will be released on January 14, with forecasts indicating a 3.0% year-on-year increase in exports (down from 5.9% in November) and a 2.9% decline in imports (down from a 1.9% decrease in November) [4]. Corporate Earnings - Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, will kick off the earnings season, with a focus on the health of the financial system amid high interest rates. Additionally, TSMC's earnings report is anticipated to serve as a bellwether for the global AI supply chain [3][9]. - TSMC is expected to report revenues of approximately NT$1.011 trillion for Q4 2025, with earnings per share projected at NT$2.72, highlighting its role as a key player in AI chip manufacturing [8]. Geopolitical and Industry Developments - The U.S. government faces an increased risk of shutdown as funding runs low, with a critical funding bill set to be reviewed by the Senate. This situation could significantly impact market sentiment and economic stability [13]. - The G7 finance ministers will meet to discuss rare earth issues, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and industry dynamics [13]. - Canadian Prime Minister is scheduled to visit China from January 13 to 17, marking a significant diplomatic engagement focused on trade and energy discussions [13].

Group 1 - The silver market is experiencing a pullback after a strong start to the year, struggling to maintain the $80 per ounce level, with prices dropping below the $74 support level [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's rebalancing is expected to lead to approximately $7 billion in silver sell-offs, which is about 12% of the open interest in the COMEX market, potentially putting further pressure on prices [2] - A new export policy in China has been implemented, upgrading silver to a strategic material status similar to rare earths, which may impact global supply dynamics [2] Group 2 - The U.S. is expected to announce a decision on tariffs for key minerals, with silver potentially facing a tariff rate of around 5.5%, although exemptions for major suppliers like Canada and Mexico are likely due to U.S. reliance on silver imports [2] - The price of silver is showing bullish signals, with the potential for an upward trend if it breaks above $83.94, while a drop below $70.07 could indicate a shift to a bearish trend [3] - The results of the U.S. "232 investigation" are anticipated to be released by January 17, which could further influence silver prices through increased global resource competition and trade disruptions [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is expected to show signs of weakness but not collapse, with investors remaining calm ahead of the employment report [1] - The Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's global tariffs is anticipated to be a market focal point, potentially causing significant volatility [1] - A "refund dispute" may arise regarding approximately $150 billion in tariffs already paid by importers, as companies may seek refunds from the U.S. government [1] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate two interest rate cuts this year, while the Federal Reserve has only hinted at one amid internal divisions [2] - A major merger is in negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore, which could create the world's largest mining company with a combined market value of nearly $207 billion [2] - Oil prices remain elevated due to geopolitical tensions, and President Trump's call for increased defense spending has boosted global defense stocks [2]

随着对关税问题的担忧逐步消退，美国消费者对经济前景的看法近期略有改善。 周五，根据密歇根大学公布的数据，美国1月消费者信心指数初值升至54，高于12月的52.9，也略高于媒体调 查中经济学家的预期中值。该调查涵盖了2024年12月16日至2025年1月5日期间的受访结果。 密歇根大学消费者调查负责人Joanne Hsu在声明中表示，消费者对关税的忧虑正在逐步减弱，但他们对整体商 业环境和劳动力市场的信心仍然偏谨慎。 同日公布的另一组数据显示，美国12月新增就业人数低于市场预期，显示劳动力市场依然脆弱；官方报告同时 指出，失业率小幅回落至4.4%。 调查还显示，消费者对就业市场的看法仍偏弱，近三分之二的受访者预计未来一年失业率将上升。其中，高学 历及高收入群体对失业风险的担忧程度高于其他消费者。 通胀预期方面，数据显示，消费者预计未来一年物价年增幅为4.2%，与上月持平；对未来5至10年的长期通胀 预期则上升至3.4%，高于此前的3.2%。 尽管消费者信心出现回暖迹象，高企的生活成本、就业机会有限以及薪资增长前景不明，仍使整体情绪徘徊在 历史低位附近。与此同时，消费者支出表现依旧具有韧性，持续为美国经济提供支撑 ...

Group 1 - The current global economic "stability" is misleading, as structural damage from tariffs is being obscured by short-term factors [1] - By 2025, the U.S. will raise tariff levels to their highest in nearly a century, leading to significant global policy uncertainty, yet global economic growth is projected at 3.2%, which may mislead assessments of the impact of trade wars [1] - Structural damage often manifests with a delay, as seen in the case of Brexit, where the long-term GDP impact was significant despite short-term stability [1] Group 2 - Approximately 95% of tariff costs are borne by U.S. companies, with only a portion passed on to consumers, which has raised U.S. inflation by about 0.7 percentage points, deviating from the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] - Tariffs have resulted in an average real income loss of about $600 for U.S. households [2] - Short-term factors such as the AI investment boom and expansionary fiscal policies in countries like the U.S. and Germany have temporarily masked the negative impacts of tariffs on the global economy [2] - The economic situation is fragile, particularly in the AI sector, where high valuations are being scrutinized against actual revenue, leading to market pressure on companies that have increased AI investments without corresponding income [2] - By 2026, as the buffer effect of early imports fades, companies will pass more tariff costs onto consumers, making the economic and social damage from tariffs more apparent [2]

美国财长贝森特明确认为美联储不应推迟进一步降息，称利率是驱动未来经济增长的关键因素，并重申 此前的预测：下任美联储主席人选将1月公布。 当地时间1月8日周四，贝森特在明尼苏达州经济俱乐部发表讲话。他明确支持特朗普的经济议程，并表 示宽松的货币政策将有助于为未来的增长铺平道路。他表示： "降息将对每一位明尼苏达州居民的生活产生切实的影响。这是实现更强劲经济增长的唯一 缺口。正因如此，美联储不应再拖延。" 贝森特强调了低利率对刺激经济增长的核心作用，为市场预期2026年降息步伐将大幅放缓的前景增添了 关键变量。 贝森特认为，即使美国最高法院裁定推翻特朗普依据紧急权力法征收的关税，也不会影响关税收入。他 表示，一旦裁定不承认这些关税，他有信心通过其他法律授权征收关税，从而弥补任何可能损失的关税 收入。但他同时承认，这样的结果将削弱特朗普在关税问题上的灵活性和谈判杠杆。 预计特朗普1月决定美联储主席人选 贝森特周四称，他预计特朗普本月将决定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 在明尼苏达州经济俱乐部发表讲话后回答提问时，贝森特表示，特朗普计划出席将于1月19日至23日在 瑞士达沃斯举行的年度论坛，而美联储主席人选的决定时间可 ...

Markets are off to a strong start in 2025 — but investors could face their first real test on Friday with the December jobs report and, potentially, a Supreme Court decision on the legality of most of President Trump's tariffs. ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank has resumed coverage of key stocks in the global brand, discount retail, and professional beauty sectors, expressing optimism as it enters 2026, anticipating a "risk-on" macro environment despite potential fluctuations [1] - Analyst Christina Katay noted that the revenue trend in the first half of the year will remain robust due to favorable weather conditions and increased tax refunds, which are seen as drivers for same-store sales growth [1] - The bank estimates that the "Great Beauty Act" will increase tax refunds by approximately $55 billion, with total tax refunds in 2024 projected at $461 billion [1] Group 2 - The expected tax refunds will primarily benefit low- to middle-income consumers facing cost-of-living challenges, while affluent households are anticipated to benefit from increased state and local tax (SALT) deductions [2] - Deutsche Bank has assigned a "Buy" rating to stocks including Amphenol (AS.US), Birkenstock (BIRK.US), Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US), Ralph Lauren (RL.US), Ross Stores (ROST.US), and TJX Companies (TJX.US) [2] - The bank holds a more conservative view on stocks such as Bath & Body Works (BBWI.US), Burlington Stores (BURL.US), Nike (NKE.US), and Lululemon (LULU.US), assigning them a "Hold" rating [2]