证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250510 基于全球流动性视角看 A 股当前性价比 2025 年 05 月 10 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 当前，全球流动性处于什么水平？ 从全球视角观察，主要经济体的货币总供应量（M2）同比增速是衡量流动 性水平的关键指标。目前，该指标处于历史中低位附近宽幅波动，显示出 全球流动性整体依旧偏紧。 可以发现，美元指数的强弱几乎主导了全球流动性的变化趋势。从历史上 来看，全球流动性往往顺应 4-5 年一轮的完整美元周期，呈现出周期性波 动的规律，背后反映出美元作为全球储备货币的核心地位。因此，观察美 元流动性的变化尤为重要。 当前各指标显示美元流动性总体偏紧，但暂无流动性冲击风险。美元流动 性可以从多个层级拆解，包括数量指标与价格指标，还可进一步区分在岸 和离岸部分。从数量角度看，以"美联储总资产 - 财政部一般账户余额 （TGA） - 隔夜逆回购"来衡量美国的金融系统净流动性，该指标自 2021 年以来逐步收紧，目前仍处在长期趋势线下方，提示流动性规模偏紧。从 价格角度看，分不同的融资主体，截至 5 月 9 日，国债市场 2 年和 10 年 美债 ...

Core Viewpoint - After four consecutive years of revenue decline, Three Squirrels is set to return to the "100 billion club" in 2024, bolstered by its upcoming IPO in Hong Kong, which would make it the first Chinese snack company to achieve dual listing in A+H shares [1][3]. Financial Performance - Three Squirrels reported revenues of approximately 72.93 billion RMB, 71.15 billion RMB, and 106.22 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with corresponding net profits of approximately 1.29 billion RMB, 2.2 billion RMB, and 4.07 billion RMB [1][2]. - The overall gross margins for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 26.2%, 22.7%, and 23.8%, respectively, with a noted decline in 2023 attributed to rising raw material and logistics costs, while a recovery is expected in 2024 due to supply chain optimization [6][12]. Market Position - In the Chinese snack market, Three Squirrels ranked fourth in sales last year, trailing behind international giants Mars, Mondelez, and Pepsi, while being the top domestic snack brand [2][3]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, with nuts accounting for 50.5% of revenue in 2024, followed by fast-growing categories like comprehensive snacks, which increased from 12% in 2022 to 19% in 2024 [5][6]. Strategic Transformation - The company has undergone a strategic transformation under founder Zhang Liaoyuan, focusing on high-end cost performance and a "full-channel + full-category" operational model, which includes restructuring the supply chain and entering new sales channels [3][12]. - Three Squirrels is shifting from an OEM model to a self-owned brand model, enhancing control over product quality and cost management, which is expected to improve profitability [12][13]. Channel Strategy - The company has implemented a "D+N" strategy, combining short video platforms with traditional e-commerce, resulting in significant revenue growth from platforms like Douyin, which saw a compound annual growth rate of 99.27% from 2022 to 2024 [14][16]. - Despite challenges in offline retail, Three Squirrels aims to increase its presence in physical stores, planning to adjust its revenue structure from a 7:3 online-to-offline ratio to a 5:5 ratio over the next 2-3 years [21][22]. Future Outlook - The upcoming IPO is expected to provide the necessary capital for further expansion and to strengthen the company's supply chain and offline presence, as well as to explore new product categories such as beverages and pet food [11][23]. - The company plans to build new processing plants across various regions in China and Southeast Asia, aiming to enhance production capacity significantly [11][12].

以下文章来源于餐企老板内参 ，作者内参君 餐企老板内参 . 餐饮业首席经管新媒体！超500万餐饮老板、产业高端精准读者；财经作家吴晓波、源码资本等投资；业务涵盖媒体传播、峰会、培训、游学餐访、中餐出 海、"餐里眼"大数据、"72餐"供应链平台、行业报告等…(更多资讯服务下载：餐饮老板内参APP) 既是消费降级的无奈， 也是餐饮创业的浮躁。 文 ｜ 餐饮老板内参 内参君 编辑 ｜ 冯楚兰 来源｜ 餐企老板内参（ID：cylbnc） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 2元面包，疯狂裂变 2025年即将过半，烘焙市场风起云涌，热度不断升温。 一边是"黄油年糕"在社交平台上强势刷屏，一边是去年开始风靡全国的"2元面包"悄悄以惊人的速度扩张。 早在2023年内参君就曾报道过2元面包，那时它的身影主要出现在二三线城市乃至县城。近2年时间过去，2元面包竟然从下沉市场开到了一线城市，甚至开 到了广州天河南一路这类较热门的商圈。 广州天河南一路新开的2元菠萝包 摄图：内参君 在这个过程中， 一些2元面包的新变种也应运而生，在主打产品、门店模式等方面延伸出了更多玩法。 例如，对于一些2元面包店， 不少门店根据不同偏好的顾客推出了" ...

还记得曾经那个"为发烧而生"的小米吗？那个靠性价比打天下的少年，如今披上了高端的战袍，在手机江湖混得风生水起。但你要以为小米高端了就不 再"卷"了，那你可真是低估了雷总"薄利多销"的信仰。 这次我们要聊的主角，价格比它的"弟弟"小米14上市时还便宜的小米14 Ultra。这台机，不止是价格"杀疯了"，配置也"堆疯了"。到底它有多狠？一起来见识 见识。 小米14 Ultra搭载的是一块6.73英寸2K全等深微曲屏，说白了就是正面看像直屏，手感却有微妙弯曲的柔和触感，完美兼顾颜值与实用性。这块屏幕由华星 光电提供，标志着小米对国产供应链的支持不再是"嘴上说说"，而是真的把优质资源用上了。 细节方面，这块屏幕支持687亿色显示，达到522ppi的像素密度，色彩表现足以"撩拨"专业摄影师的心。更别提它支持1-120Hz LTPO自适应高刷，日常滑动 如奶油般丝滑，刷短视频也不掉帧，妥妥的"旗舰水准"。 如果说屏幕是外在美，那小米14 Ultra的影像系统简直就是"内外兼修"的典范。它配备的是徕卡全明星四摄，每颗镜头都不是"酱油队员"。 首先是主摄：1英寸大底LYT-900传感器，搭配徕卡Summilux镜头，支持f/ ...

你以为这波针对小米的舆论风暴只是因为一个碳纤维机盖？错。这不是产品问题，是"权力结构"被撼动的问题。小米SU7不是一辆车，它是一记 耳光，一记精准抽在了过去十年所有新势力脸上的耳光。 它以不到100亿的投入，三年时间，造出一辆全面对标豪华、全维打穿中高端市场的"科技旗舰"。而它背后指向的，不只是友商的KPI，更是新势 力体内根深蒂固的"高溢价腐败"。 曾经你在小红书上刷到的"碳纤机盖安装视频"，你以为是用户自发分享？那只是改装厂商的流量实验。他们靠着"吹风机蹭热点"收割流量，转身 卖给小米用户一堆高价仿制件，个个利润百倍。 但别急，戏还没完。另一边，友商KOC蓄势待发，拿着断章取义的"车主反馈图"，配上"安全""良心""割韭菜"等关键词，发动情绪核弹，给群众 喂下"正义"的安慰剂。这不是简单的网络暴力，这是一次高明的"信息战争"：一明一暗，一唱一和，把小米当成猎物，从用户群体中抽血，再在 小米ULTRA那块4.2万元的碳纤前仓盖一上架，直接对标市面上十万起步的"马鲤鲤"同类产品。这不是降维打击，这是掀桌子。于是你看到一群看 似无关联的改装主播，集体上演情绪戏码，把一个技术选配问题炒成"安全灾难"，仿佛下一秒就 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: CRR Pricing Model for Convertible Bonds - **Model Construction Idea**: The CRR pricing model is based on the binomial tree framework, which incorporates embedded options, credit spreads, and other factors to calculate the theoretical value of convertible bonds. This model aims to identify pricing deviations in the convertible bond market and exploit the mean-reversion of these deviations[44][45]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the CRR binomial tree model to calculate the theoretical value of convertible bonds, considering embedded clauses and credit spreads. 2. Define the "pricing deviation" as the difference between the CRR theoretical price and the market price. 3. Select convertible bonds with the highest CRR price-to-market price ratio within each style (equity-like, balanced, and debt-like) for portfolio inclusion. 4. Portfolio construction: - Initial screening criteria: - Bond rating of AA- or above - Outstanding balance of at least 200 million yuan - Exclude stocks with ST or other special treatments - No historical rating downgrades or negative outlooks - Major shareholder pledge ratio below 90% - Active trading in the past 10 days - Redemption progress less than 5 days - Not below the bond floor - Style classification: - Equity-like: Parity > 110 - Balanced: Parity between 90 and 110 - Debt-like: Parity < 90 - Select the top 10 bonds with the highest CRR price-to-market price ratio in each style, totaling 30 bonds[45][51]. 5. Weighting and rebalancing: Equal weighting with monthly rebalancing[44][45]. - **Model Evaluation**: The CRR pricing model is more accurate than traditional methods like BSM due to its consideration of embedded clauses and credit spreads, making it suitable for identifying pricing inefficiencies in the convertible bond market[15][44]. 2. Model Name: Low Valuation Momentum Strategy for Convertible Bonds - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy combines low valuation and momentum factors to identify convertible bonds with low conversion premium levels and positive momentum in their underlying stocks[48][49]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Initial screening criteria: Same as the CRR pricing model[51]. 2. Style classification: Same as the CRR pricing model[51]. 3. Selection criteria: - Evaluate the relative valuation of convertible bonds (absolute and relative pricing) - Assess the short-term momentum of the underlying stocks - Combine these factors into a comprehensive score and select the top 10 bonds in each style, totaling 30 bonds[51]. 4. Weighting and rebalancing: Equal weighting with monthly rebalancing[51]. - **Model Evaluation**: The low valuation momentum strategy effectively combines valuation and momentum factors, making it a robust multi-factor strategy for convertible bond selection[49][51]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. CRR Pricing Model - **Monthly Return**: -0.51%[48] - **Annualized Return**: 15.17%[48] - **Annualized Volatility**: 12.82%[48] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 12.08%[48] - **Return-to-Volatility Ratio**: 1.18[48] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.26[48] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 61.36%[48] 2. Low Valuation Momentum Strategy - **Monthly Return**: -0.28%[55] - **Annualized Return**: 15.16%[55] - **Annualized Volatility**: 12.84%[55] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 11.26%[55] - **Return-to-Volatility Ratio**: 1.18[55] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.35[55] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 64.77%[55]

Group 1 - The article raises a question about the persistent negative sentiment towards Huawei, suggesting that this phenomenon is common for controversial brands across different eras [1][3] - It discusses the varying perceptions of Huawei as a brand, attributing these differences to cognitive biases and economic backgrounds of consumers [5][7] - The article emphasizes that the concept of value for money is subjective and should not solely be based on price, but rather on stability and user experience [7][9] Group 2 - Huawei's pricing strategy is defended as a response to external pressures, particularly from U.S. sanctions, which the article likens to bullying, indicating that Huawei's innovation is a necessary counteraction [9] - The article posits that Huawei's competitive positioning is against major brands like Samsung, Apple, and Sony, highlighting its unique value in the market [9] - It concludes that every brand has its own value, and the absence of innovation from Huawei would leave a significant gap in the domestic smartphone market [9]

Group 1 - Haidilao's bakery brand "拾 耍·SCHWASUA" has officially opened in Hangzhou, attracting high customer traffic since its launch during the May Day holiday, with some popular products selling out by 11 AM [1][3] - The bakery offers a variety of products with prices starting at 5.8 yuan, positioning itself as a cost-effective option, with many items priced under 10 yuan, leading to positive consumer feedback on its affordability [1][4] - The store features over 50 types of baked goods, including popular items like coffee bread, which sells over 200 units daily, often running out of stock [3][4] Group 2 - The store's design adopts a minimalist black and gold theme, with a unique circular glass display for products and interactive elements like a lottery machine to engage customers [4][6] - The bakery market is highly competitive, with a rapid turnover of brands; recent examples include the rise and fall of brands like 熊猫不走 and 虎头局·渣打饼行, highlighting the volatility in the sector [8][9] - Haidilao's entry into the bakery market combines elements of both affordable and premium offerings, aiming to explore a new business model that emphasizes quality while maintaining low prices [11][13]

2元面包，疯狂裂变 2025年即将过半，烘焙市场风起云涌，热度不断升温。 一边是"黄油年糕"在社交平台上强势刷屏，一边是去年开始风靡全国的"2元面包"悄悄以惊人的速度扩张。 早在2023年内参君就曾报道过2元面包，那时它的身影主要出现在二三线城市乃至县城。近2年时间过去，2元面包竟然从下沉市场开到了一线城市，甚至 开到了广州天河南一路这类较热门的商圈。 广州天河南一路新开的2元菠萝包，摄图：内参君 在这个过程中，一些2元面包的新变种也应运而生，在主打产品、门店模式等方面延伸出了更多玩法。 例如，对于一些2元面包店，不少门店根据不同偏好的顾客推出了"2元牛马套餐"组合。 从奶香小吐司、肉松面包，到甜口咸口齐备的紫薯芋泥、咸蛋黄欧包、血糯米糯吐司，甚至考虑到健康人群与健身客群，还计划推出无夹心的全麦系列。 便宜不代表将就，2元面包的丰富性反而在"极简"中实现了"极丰"。 又例如，在广东地区，菠萝包几乎成为2元面包店的"门面担当"。 代表品牌"山海姬"，门头上大大打出"招牌港式菠萝包"，号称一年热销超过一千万个。明档制作，现烤出炉。面包2元起，每次经过几乎都会有人排队。 另一代表品牌"乐见余小满"，主打"每日现烤、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Green Tea Group is launching its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise approximately HKD 12.11 billion through the issuance of 168.364 million shares at an offer price of HKD 7.19 per share, with plans for expansion and infrastructure upgrades [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO will involve a global offering of 168.364 million shares, with 117.854 million new shares representing 25% of the total shares post-issue [1]. - The company has secured eight cornerstone investors who collectively subscribed for approximately HKD 673 million worth of shares [2]. - The funds raised will be allocated for expanding the restaurant network, establishing central food processing facilities, upgrading IT systems, and general corporate purposes [1]. Group 2: Company Background - Green Tea Group originated from a youth hostel established in 2004 in Hangzhou and opened its first restaurant in 2008, growing to a national network of 489 restaurants across 21 provinces, four municipalities, and two autonomous regions by April 2024 [2]. - The company is recognized as the third-largest casual Chinese restaurant brand by the number of restaurants and fourth by revenue in mainland China [3]. Group 3: Business Strategy and Performance - The company focuses on a diverse menu with popular dishes like Green Tea Roasted Chicken and Flame Shrimp, maintaining a high cost-performance ratio with an average consumer spending of RMB 50 to 70 [3]. - Revenue figures for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were reported at RMB 2.375 billion, RMB 3.589 billion, and RMB 3.838 billion, respectively, with net profits of RMB 17 million, RMB 296 million, and RMB 350 million [3]. - Future expansion plans include opening 150, 200, and 213 new restaurants in 2025, 2026, and 2027, focusing on smaller outlets for higher turnover rates and lower costs [3].