Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its decision to cut interest rates in July [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000 and slightly above the revised figure of 144,000 for May [3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% [3] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth [3] - The average workweek slightly declined to 34.2 hours, reflecting changes in labor demand [3] - In contrast, the ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [4] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury yields rose following the employment report, with the 2-year yield increasing over 10 basis points to 3.894%, and the 10-year yield rising over 6 basis points to 4.356% [1] - In Europe, bond yields fell as investors bought European government bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 3.512% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 8.6 basis points to 2.971% [5]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose on Wednesday due to investors digesting weak employment data and weighing the impact of President Trump's tax and spending plan [1][3] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, contrasting with economists' expectations of an increase of 100,000 jobs [3] - The Senate passed Trump's major bill with a narrow margin of 51 to 50 votes, which is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 0.6 basis points to 3.783%, the 10-year yield rose by 5.1 basis points to 4.3%, and the 30-year yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.84% [1] - In the European market, 10-year German bonds rose by 5.8 basis points to 2.625%, Italian bonds increased by 8.6 basis points to 3.555%, and French bonds rose by 8.1 basis points to 3.328% [5] - The UK bond market saw significant increases, with the 10-year yield jumping over 20 basis points to 4.67%, reflecting concerns over government spending plans [5]

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*道指涨近300点； 市场概述 美国总统特朗普的90天关税减免将于下周到期，投资者正在等待美国与其贸易伙伴之间任何贸易协议的 宣布。加拿大周末宣布取消数字服务税，以促进与美国的贸易谈判。此前，特朗普上周五表示，美国将 暂停与加拿大的所有贸易讨论。 斯巴达资本证券（Spartan Capital Securities）首席市场经济学家卡迪洛（Peter Cardillo）表示："人们希 望最终能与美国贸易伙伴达成某种一致，这将防止通货膨胀失控。因此，你有良好的盈利前景，美联储 可能会在9月份降息，这导致了大量的购买势头。" *芝加哥6月PMI不及预期； *回购派息预期提振金融板块，高盛涨超2%。 周一美股全线上涨，标普、纳指再度联袂创历史新高，对贸易协议和可能降息的希望缓解了投资者的不 确定性。截至收盘，道指涨275.50点，涨幅0.63%，报44094.77点，纳指涨0.47%，报20369.73点，标普 500指数涨0.52%，报6204.95点。 二季度，道指累计上涨4.98%，纳指上涨17.75%，标普500指数上涨10.57%。 与此同时，美国参议院共和党人将试图推动特朗普的"大而美"法案，特朗普希望 ...

02/10年期美债收益率利差跌2.220个基点，报+50.466个基点，6月份累涨0.797个基点，二季度累涨 16.921个基点。 两年期美债收益率跌2.87个基点，报3.7192%，6月份累跌17.83个基点，二季度累跌19.27个基点、整体 交投于4.0592%-3.4305%区间。 周一（6月30日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌4.89个基点，报4.2280%，6月份累计下跌 17.24个基点，二季度累计下跌2.14个基点、整体交投于4.6247%-3.8564%区间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly focusing on President Trump's dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the potential candidates for his successor, which could significantly impact interest rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yields [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump is reportedly considering announcing Powell's successor by September or October, with potential candidates including Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, and Christopher Waller [1][3]. - Warsh is seen as a candidate with a hawkish stance, advocating for monetary policy independence and prioritizing balance sheet reduction [5]. - Bessent is viewed as a dovish candidate, favoring close coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, which could lead to a more accommodative interest rate path [5]. - Waller, a recent appointee by Trump, has expressed a desire for immediate rate cuts, indicating a more aggressive approach to monetary policy [5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The market currently assigns a 76% probability to a Fed rate cut in September, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index to its lowest level since March 2022 [3]. - Analysts expect the Fed may cut rates 1 to 2 times this year, depending on inflation and employment data, with a terminal rate projected around 3% [8]. - The current federal funds rate is in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating a potential for further easing [8]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yields - Short to medium-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a preference for 5-year bonds due to favorable risk-reward ratios [6][8]. - The outlook for 30-year bonds is less optimistic, as high U.S. debt levels may keep long-term yields elevated [8]. - The Treasury is anticipated to issue more short to medium-term bonds to meet market demand, reflecting a shift in investor interest [8]. Group 4: China and Currency Dynamics - The Chinese bond market is expected to remain stable, with 5-year and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.475% and 1.65%, respectively [10]. - The future of the China-U.S. interest rate differential will largely depend on developments in the U.S. [10]. - Analysts predict a gradual appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its forecasts for the yuan's exchange rate to 7.1, 7, and 6.9 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed confidence in the advancement of Trump's comprehensive tax bill, expecting it to be signed before July 4 [2] - Becerra described the legislation as the "beginning of addressing the debt issue" and opposed the idea of cutting Medicaid programs [2] - He criticized the previous administration's reliance on short-term debt issuance and indicated a preference for a different strategy moving forward [2][3] Group 2 - Becerra noted that the current 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.26%, while the 2-year and 12-month yields are 3.73% and 3.81%, respectively [2] - He anticipates that as inflation slows, yields across all maturities may decline, suggesting a parallel downward shift in the yield curve [2] - On trade issues, Becerra stated that tariffs have not yet caused inflation and expects a flurry of trade agreements to be signed before the July 9 deadline [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have shown a "first rise and then weak fluctuation" trend since May, influenced by three phases: initial rise due to improved trade policies and economic outlook, pressure on long-term rates from Moody's downgrade and poor 20-year bond auction, and a return to fundamentals with geopolitical risk premiums rising [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to maintain high volatility with limited downward space due to term premium support, reflecting a significant fiscal deficit pressure and increasing U.S. debt burden projected to reach $36.2 trillion by Q1 2025 [1] - The 10-year Treasury ETF tracks the 10-year Treasury index, which reflects price changes in the long-term Treasury market, serving as an important reference for fixed income investments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have shown a slight increase, reflecting unexpected inflation rise as indicated by the Federal Reserve's preferred metrics [1][3] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 4.5 basis points to 3.76%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 4.285% [1] - The core inflation rate for May reached 2.7%, exceeding expectations, with economists predicting an overall inflation rate of 2.3% [3] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring President Trump's renewed threats against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [4] - Powell reiterated the Fed's wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates until the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes clearer [5] - In the European market, most government bonds saw a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 1.8 basis points to 2.583% [5] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.4 basis points to 1.452% [7] - The U.S. Treasury Department had no bond issuance scheduled for Friday [7]

昨日晚间公布的美国当周初请数据不及预期，美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值进一步下修至-0.5%，市场投资者对美 国未来经济以及美联储政策出现乐观与担忧并存情况，现货黄金市场昨日再度维持区间震荡格局，昨日市场最高至 3350.27美元/盎司，最低至3309.94美元/盎司，最终收盘于3327.76美元/盎司，本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后市场维持在小区 间震荡，目前交投于3322.00美元/盎司附近。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向和美 债收益率情况。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.260-36.830，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低 吸。 若市场价格跌破36.260美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.800-35.400美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.830美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及37.200-37.600美元/盎司。（止损 为0.200美元/盎司空间） 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡 ...