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dbg盾博:美国的政策难以转变,美元面临进一步贬值风险
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 02:09
基于以上种种风险因素,Thu Lan Nguyen 做出预测,预计到 2026 年 9 月,欧元兑美元汇率将从目前的 1.1561 升至 1.20。更值得警惕的是,还存在一种极端 风险,即如果投资者信心彻底崩溃,越过临界点,美元的贬值幅度可能远超预期。 Thu Lan Nguyen 指出,美国政策难以出现根本性转变,成为美元贬值的重要推手。特朗普执政期间推行的关税政策,原本旨在保护美国本土产业、重塑贸 易格局,却在实际执行过程中产生了诸多意想不到的负面效应。这些政策不仅引发了全球范围内的贸易摩擦,还打乱了原有的国际贸易秩序。从经济层面来 看,关税的增加使得美国企业进口成本大幅上升,挤压了企业利润空间,阻碍了企业的扩张与创新,进而削弱了美国经济的增长优势。而经济增长优势的弱 化,直接冲击了美元作为避险资产的稳固地位。以往,在全球经济动荡或不确定性增加时,美元凭借美国强大的经济实力与稳定的金融体系,成为投资者避 险的首选货币。但如今,美国经济增长势头受挫,投资者对美元的避险信心逐渐动摇,转而寻求其他更为稳定的避险资产,这无疑加速了美元的贬值进程。 与此同时,美元作为世界储备货币的地位也岌岌可危。长期以来,美元在国 ...
特朗普政策推动美元今年暴跌10%,华尔街警告"玩火自焚"
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-18 13:55
Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing one of its worst years, with significant declines against major currencies, largely attributed to Trump's policies and their impact on investor confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Decline Factors - The dollar has fallen over 10% against the euro, pound, and Swiss franc, driven by Trump's tax cuts and trade policies, which pose risks to the budget deficit and economic growth [1]. - Trump's public attacks on the Federal Reserve and the introduction of punitive tax measures for international investors have eroded confidence in the stability of the US financial system [1]. - The traditional positive correlation between US Treasury yields and the dollar has broken down, with the dollar continuing to weaken despite rising bond yields [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - A recent survey by Bank of America indicates that fund managers are reducing their dollar holdings at the highest rate in 20 years, suggesting that the most painful trade this summer is being long on the dollar [6]. - The World Gold Council's survey reveals that nearly three-quarters of central banks expect their dollar-denominated reserves to decrease within five years, up from 62% last year [6]. - Concerns about US policy uncertainty are leading more exporters to reject the dollar as a settlement currency, indicating a shift in international trade practices [6]. Group 3: Government Financing and Market Reactions - The US government faces an annual financing need exceeding $4 trillion, and a continued decline in the dollar could deter international creditors [7]. - Analysts warn of a potential vicious cycle where foreign investors withdraw, leading to higher borrowing costs and further weakening the dollar [7]. - Despite the dollar's decline, the Trump administration appears indifferent, only expressing traditional support for a "strong dollar" without taking substantial action [7][8].
大失所望!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 12:21
Group 1 - The core focus of the Lujiazui Financial Forum was on financial market openness and supporting the technology industry through the existing financial system [1][4] - Key measures discussed included the establishment of an international operational center for digital RMB, offshore trade financial pilots, and the issuance of offshore bonds [1][2] - The forum highlighted the potential for the RMB to play a more significant role in the international financial system, suggesting a trend towards a more stable or appreciating RMB in the near future [2][3] Group 2 - The support for technology industry upgrades is expected to increase, with innovative financial tools and a new growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to facilitate financing for tech companies, even those that are not yet profitable [4][5] - The market reaction to the forum was relatively calm, with major indices showing slight increases, indicating that investors are looking for progress in domestic economic indicators rather than relying solely on the forum's outcomes [6][7] - External factors, such as the upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and geopolitical tensions, are seen as potential market disruptors, but the domestic market is expected to maintain its own trajectory [7][8]
德商银行:美国的政策难以转变,美元面临进一步贬值风险
news flash· 2025-06-17 13:31
金十数据6月17日讯,德国商业银行分析师Thu Lan Nguyen在一份报告中认为,由于美国的政策不太可 能彻底转变,美元可能会进一步贬值。特朗普的关税政策有可能破坏美国经济的增长优势,这正在削弱 美元作为避险资产的角色。此外,美元作为世界储备货币的地位也面临风险。另一个风险是美联储可能 失去其独立性。特朗普曾多次呼吁降低利率,并批评美联储主席鲍威尔。鉴于此,预计到2026年9月, 欧元兑美元将从目前的1.1561升至1.20。甚至还有一种风险,即投资者信心越过临界点、导致美元贬值 幅度超过预期。 欧元/美元 德商银行:美国的政策难以转变,美元面临进一步贬值风险 ...
褪色的霸权:美元走弱下的资产配置启示:1970年以来七轮美元趋势走弱下的资产行情复盘
Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing likelihood of a weaker dollar due to misaligned monetary policies and challenges in the dollar's external circulation system [2][4][69] - It reviews seven significant periods of dollar depreciation since 1970, emphasizing the impact on various asset classes, particularly commodities and non-US equities [3][9][62] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the foreign exchange market, commodities, and non-US equity markets as the dollar weakens [4][62][70] Group 2 - The historical analysis indicates that during periods of dollar weakness, commodities consistently outperform, driven by a shift in investment towards tangible assets [63][62] - Non-US equity markets, particularly in emerging economies, tend to benefit from capital inflows and improved economic conditions during dollar depreciation phases [63][62] - The report identifies specific periods where asset performance varied significantly, with Asian markets often outperforming European markets during dollar weakness [14][23][35] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the potential for a new trend of dollar depreciation, driven by factors such as the narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other economies [69][70] - It notes that the eurozone is likely to benefit the most from the rebalancing of dollar-denominated assets, as fiscal expansion in the region is expected to enhance economic prospects [77][79] - The analysis suggests that as the dollar weakens, there will be an increase in hedging against dollar exposure, further supporting the appreciation of currencies from regions holding significant US assets [77][79]
机构看金市:6月16日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 04:54
海通期货:弱势美元和地缘政治因素使得黄金易涨难跌 正信期货:中东地缘冲突扰动避险属性驱动金价逼近新高 申银万国期货:中东局势升级下黄金整体呈现偏强态势 剑桥皇后学院:黄金仍然是一种关键的避险资产 Zaye Capital Markets:需跟踪油价对金价的影响,如果油价继续飙升可能提振金价大幅上涨 【机构观点分析】 海通期货表示,中东地缘局势急剧升级,黄金作为避险资产上涨。美国5月CPI和PPI公布,通胀再度低 于市场预期水平。尽管关税依然可能在未来推升外生性通胀风险,但美国经济降速已导致核心CPI环比 连续4个月低于预期,内生性通胀风险显著降低。经济基本面压力之下,美元贬值趋势延续。虽然关税 交易逻辑目前暂未助推黄金进一步上涨,但弱势美元和地缘政治因素使得黄金易涨难跌。短期内,重点 关注黄金能否突破3500美元关键点位,上调COMEX黄金价格区间至3200-3600美元/盎司。 正信期货表示,短期来看,黄金创新高后再高位构筑新的震荡平台,在全球央行全面进入宽松周期后, 未来三年合理估值在2990美元/盎司附近,考虑到中期地缘避险需求仍在,俄乌问题仍有变数,中东冲 突又起,且美国关税政策仍然会反复影响市场的风 ...
多行业黄金板块解读及后市判断
2025-06-15 16:03
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the gold sector, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks and the long-term trend of US dollar depreciation on gold prices. The escalation of the Middle East situation has provided a short-term boost to gold prices, although extreme scenarios like a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are considered unlikely [1][5][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: There is an increasing demand for gold from global central banks. China's gold reserves as a percentage of foreign exchange reserves have risen from 1% to 6%, still below the global average, indicating a sustained demand for safe assets [1][6][7]. - **Gold Price Dynamics**: The gold market has shown significant volatility this year, with prices rising from $2,400-$2,500 at the end of last year to over $3,500. The long-term logic of gold as an asset remains valid, with current high prices suggesting caution against over-investment [2][3]. - **Retail Sector Performance**: The gold jewelry retail sector is expected to benefit from the release of pent-up consumer demand, improved willingness of franchisees to stock products, and optimistic sales forecasts for Q3, driven by wedding demand and low base effects from the previous year [1][17][18]. - **Global Trade Trends**: The import trade of precious metal jewelry has been growing, with domestic brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang actively expanding overseas, indicating a consensus on globalization within the industry [1][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: Hong Kong-listed gold companies are seen as undervalued, with strong internal growth prospects. Smaller stocks show greater elasticity, while larger stocks still have valuation discount space [3][23][24]. - **Market Trends**: The gold jewelry industry is undergoing a transformation, with a shift towards gold products over traditional K-gold or inlaid products, driven by rising investment attributes and improved design and branding [27][32]. - **Valuation Changes**: The valuation of gold jewelry companies is shifting towards consumer goods PEG valuation, reflecting their evolving market position and consumer appeal [32]. - **Emerging Brands**: New brands like Mankalon are maintaining stable sales data and accelerating same-store growth, leveraging product strength and brand recognition to mitigate gold price volatility [29][33]. Recommendations for Investors - **Core Stock Picks**: Recommended A-share stocks include Chow Tai Fook, Mankalon, and Lai Shen Tong Ling for their product logic and performance certainty. Other stocks like Zhou Dazheng and Cai Bai Co. are noted for their low valuations and significant marginal catalysts [22]. - **Focus on Overseas Expansion**: Companies like Lao Pu Gold are expanding into international markets, with plans for new stores in Singapore and potential future expansions into Japan and the Middle East [26][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the gold industry, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.
中东局势刺激甲醇、碳酸锶、溴素概念股涨停!原油、黄金能冲多高?下周A股将企稳?高手这样看
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-15 09:01
Group 1 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in WTI crude oil futures, which surged nearly 14%, and COMEX gold, which rose nearly 2% before experiencing a pullback [1] - The stock markets in multiple countries have reacted negatively, with the three major US stock indices closing lower, while sectors such as oil, gold, military industry, and nuclear pollution prevention in the A-share market showed strength [1] - The Middle East situation is expected to have a limited impact on international gold prices, as the market's risk aversion sentiment may suppress gold prices, although a continued depreciation of the US dollar could support gold prices [4][5] Group 2 - The Middle East region accounts for approximately 15% of global methanol production capacity, with Iran being the largest producer, contributing about 8.6% of global capacity in 2023 [4] - The military sector is viewed positively by several analysts, especially with the upcoming 55th Paris Air Show scheduled for June 16-22, 2025, where significant Chinese military aircraft will be showcased [5] - Analysts believe that the impact of the Middle East situation on global stock markets will weaken, and the A-share market is expected to stabilize, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing support from moving averages [5][6]
美元重挫10%!贬值潮将至?历史重演!美元资产怎么办?普通人如何应对?
美投讲美股· 2025-06-15 01:51
Market Analysis & Trends - The U_S stock market has recovered from a previous flash crash, but the dollar index has fallen to a new low since 2022 [1] - The dollar index (DXY) measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, with the Euro having the largest weighting at 575% [1] - Since early 2025, the dollar index has been declining, reaching its lowest level since 2022 [1] Factors Influencing the Dollar - Dollar's value is determined by supply and demand, with supply factors including the U_S trade deficit, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and U_S fiscal deficit [1] - Demand for dollars is influenced by international trade settlement, central bank foreign exchange reserves, and investment in dollar assets [1] - Short-term dollar trends are primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U_S government's fiscal deficit [1] Recent Dollar Depreciation - The dollar's strength in 2024 was driven by Trump's policies, but it weakened in early 2025 due to concerns about trade protectionism and fiscal policies [2] - Market concerns about U_S governance and institutional issues are eroding foreign investors' confidence in dollar assets [2] - Some countries are reducing their reliance on the dollar [2] Future Dollar Trends - The report suggests that a complete collapse of dollar hegemony is unlikely in the foreseeable future [2] - Short-term dollar trends will be heavily influenced by Trump's policies, with potential for continued downward pressure due to trade and fiscal uncertainties [2] - The U_S economy remains strong, with positive economic data and a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve compared to other central banks [3] Investment Strategy - The author believes that the dollar's depreciation pressure may be nearing its end, with potential for appreciation due to economic fundamentals and policy factors [3] - The author suggests that long-term investors should focus on the U_S's economic fundamentals and technological advancements rather than short-term policy risks [3] - The author maintains a long-term positive outlook on U_S equities and dollar assets, particularly for investors in developing countries [3]
外汇期权市场暗示“抛售美国”或暂歇 美元抛压料迎短暂喘息
智通财经网· 2025-06-13 01:11
Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange options market indicates a potential slowdown in the recent aggressive selling of the US dollar, despite the dollar index trading at a three-year low [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The pessimism in the foreign exchange options market reached extreme levels in May, but signals of relative calm have emerged as the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision approaches [1][4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's risk reversal indicators for one-week and one-month terms have hit their lowest bearish points in over two months [1]. - Despite the recent calm, the dollar's spot price fell to its lowest since April 2022 due to confirmed moderate producer price inflation and limited cooling in the US labor market [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI/PPI, suggest that the US economy is showing unexpected resilience, leading to increased expectations of a "soft landing" and minimal changes in Fed rate cut expectations [6]. - The market anticipates only two rate cuts this year, which explains the retreat from extreme bearish positions in the foreign exchange market over the past two months [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite a temporary slowdown in selling pressure, the consensus on Wall Street remains that the dollar will continue to weaken, with projections indicating further declines through 2025 [9]. - Investment confidence in the US is perceived to be declining, with macro traders reassessing the US as a high-risk market due to tariff threats, softening data, and fiscal deficit concerns [10]. - Major investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, warn of significant depreciation of the dollar in the coming year, with predictions of a potential 9% drop in the dollar index [10].