Core Viewpoint - The A-share core indices experienced a pullback after a significant surge, with the non-ferrous metals sector seeing a decline of over 3% in early trading, despite continued strong capital inflow into the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector's leading ETF (159876) saw its decline narrow to 1.2% after an initial drop [1] - On October 9, the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) attracted 117 million yuan in a single day, raising its total fund size to 493 million yuan, a new historical high [1] - As of the report, the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) received real-time net subscriptions exceeding 63 million units [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the recent surge in gold prices during the holiday period [1] - The rise in international gold prices is attributed to short-term fluctuations caused by the U.S. government shutdown, political changes in Japan, ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and global central banks' continued gold purchases [1] - Copper prices have also strengthened recently due to supply shortages and the logic of computational revolution [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, CITIC Securities indicates that the monetary easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, along with domestic initiatives to optimize production factors and improve profitability across various sectors, will facilitate the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream markets [1] Group 4: Sector Diversification - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of market conditions, rhythms, and driving factors, leading to inevitable differentiation [2] - A diversified approach through the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) allows for better capture of the sector's beta performance, with the index weights for copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium at 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4% respectively [2] - This diversified strategy helps mitigate risks compared to investing in a single metal sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the metals and chemicals industry, emphasizing that these sectors typically perform well during the second phase of a bull market, driven by monetary easing and inflation expectations, as well as demand growth from economic recovery [4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The metals and chemicals sectors are identified as strong cyclical industries that usually do not miss out on bull markets, particularly during the second phase of such markets [4]. - Recent financial reports indicate a recovery in performance for many companies within these sectors, suggesting a positive trend in earnings [4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Retail investors are cautioned against impulsive buying during market peaks, as this can lead to increased stress and potential losses [3]. - The article highlights the importance of reflecting on missed opportunities, particularly during initial entry points and during low-volume pullbacks [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the main themes in the market are likely to continue evolving, with fluctuations and rotations occurring within established themes rather than new ones emerging [4]. - It suggests that the current market phase is characterized by residual momentum, indicating that while there may be opportunities, they are part of a broader cyclical pattern [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Monthly Report - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. Although the economic data announced in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With the stock market remaining strong, the impact of new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, bond market sentiment remained weak. In October, potential negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus boosting credit expansion expectations, the intensification of anti - involution, and market waiting for the official implementation of the new public - fund regulations. Potential positives may be the slowdown of economic data boosting easing expectations, lower - than - expected incremental fiscal strength, and the central bank restarting bond purchases, but monetary easing is difficult to materialize. Overall, October may be a window period for risk clearing after the negatives are realized, and the bond market may stabilize. However, the rally phase may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations, which may be triggered by factors such as weakening fundamentals or deteriorating trade negotiations. It is recommended to patiently wait for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the middle or late fourth quarter [8][67]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 9 - Month Market Review 3.1.1 Domestic Bond Market - In September, the domestic bond market fluctuated widely under the influence of the stock market, regulatory policies, and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases. Treasury futures ended the month lower. At the beginning of the month, the stock market's decline boosted bond market sentiment, but the new public - fund regulations issued on September 5 caused a significant correction in the bond market in the early part of the month. In the middle and late parts of the month, the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases increased, but the bond market still fluctuated due to stock - market and anti - involution disturbances. The 30 - year Treasury futures had the largest adjustment, while the 5 - year Treasury futures had the smallest adjustment [11]. - The interest - rate curve steepened further in September. The long - end yields increased more, mainly due to the stock - market pressure, while the short - end was mainly affected by the new public - fund regulations, with the 2 - year variety being the most affected [14]. - The basis of Treasury futures narrowed in September. The short - end varieties were stable due to the loose funds, while the long - end basis continued to narrow, indicating that futures adjusted less than the spot [15]. 3.1.2 Overseas Market - In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there may still be 50bp of cuts within the year, but there were differences among Fed members regarding the future path. The market also had a large divergence from the Fed's official view. Further interest - rate cuts may not lead to a significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields unless the US economy deteriorates significantly or Trump challenges the Fed's independence [18]. 3.1.3 Funding Situation - In September, the net injection of MLF and outright reverse repurchases was the same as last month, and short - term reverse repurchases were increased to support the funds. The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchases at the end of the month to support cross - quarter funds [23]. - The funding rates increased seasonally at the end of the month but were not tight. The DR007 increased compared to the beginning of the month but was lower than the same period in previous years. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rates remained stable, and the overall funding situation was stable [23]. 3.2 Bond Market Environment Analysis 3.2.1 Fundamental Situation - In August, domestic economic activities further slowed down. In terms of credit expansion, the willingness of the real economy to borrow was still weak. The new social financing in August was 256.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.55 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in on - balance - sheet RMB loans. The M1 growth rate increased for five consecutive months, indicating an improvement in the activation of existing funds [34][36]. - In terms of real - economy activities, in August, the national economic activity data further slowed down. The characteristics of "supply better than demand, external demand better than domestic demand" were still obvious. Domestic demand was weak and showed marginal slowdown. Export growth slowed down, import growth declined, inflation remained at a low level, consumption continued to weaken, and investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all declined significantly [40][43]. - In September, the leading indicators continued to improve, but there were still concerns. The official manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, but the new - order index representing demand increased the least. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, and the construction and service industries' prosperity declined [49]. - High - frequency indicators showed that in September, there was a supply - demand divergence. Production indicators continued to rise, while domestic - demand indicators were weak, and external demand showed resilience [52]. 3.2.2 Policy Aspect - In the short term, the possibility of additional monetary - policy easing is low. The central bank is likely to focus on implementing existing policies. Attention should be paid to the possibility of fiscal - end stimulus and the central bank restarting bond purchases, especially the possibility of issuing special Treasury bonds in the fourth - quarter NPC Standing Committee meeting [58]. 3.2.3 Funding Aspect - In October, the funding situation is expected to remain stable and loose. The seasonal pressure on the funding side is weaker than in September. The main risk is the possible additional issuance of government bonds, but the central bank is likely to provide hedging [60][63]. 3.3 Next - Month Market Outlook 3.3.1 Market Logic and Outlook - In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. After the negatives are realized, the bond market may stabilize, but the rally may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations [67]. 3.3.2 Arbitrage Strategy Outlook - **Cash - and - Carry Arbitrage**: Currently, there are no obvious positive - arbitrage opportunities, and reverse arbitrage should be participated in with caution. Some non - CTD bonds of 30 - year and 10 - year bonds have reverse - arbitrage space, but there is a risk of non - convergence at maturity [68]. - **Basis Strategy**: Focus on going long on the basis of short - end contracts. As the short - end varieties may return from a premium state to a normal discount state, and the current basis is at a relatively low level in the same historical period, there may be more room for upward regression [68]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: It is not recommended to participate due to the poor liquidity of the next - quarter 03 contracts [69]. - **Inter - Commodity Spread Strategy**: In the short term, focus on steepening the yield curve. In October, the funding situation is expected to be stable, but the possibility of monetary easing is low, and more credit - expansion policies may lead to an increase in long - end yields [69].

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanna Takichi as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to lead to her becoming the new Prime Minister of Japan, with a strong inclination towards "Abenomics," favoring monetary easing, yen depreciation, and fiscal expansion [3][4]. Election Results - On October 4, the LDP held a presidential election where Takichi emerged victorious after two rounds of voting, contrary to media predictions that favored her opponent, Shinzo Koizumi [4][5]. - In the first round, Takichi received 119 votes from party members, while Koizumi received 84 votes, leading to a second round where Takichi secured 149 votes from national assembly members compared to Koizumi's 145 [15]. Reasons for Takichi's Victory - Takichi's popularity among LDP members was a significant factor, as she garnered substantial support in both the party member and local party branch votes [5]. - Koizumi's lack of clear policy proposals and cautious election strategy contributed to his defeat, as he failed to resonate with the party's broader membership [5]. Economic and Financial Policy Proposals - Takichi is seen as a staunch supporter of Abenomics, advocating for monetary easing and fiscal expansion [3][7]. - Her proposed tax policies include raising the income threshold for tax exemptions, implementing cash subsidies for low-income families, and abolishing temporary gasoline tax rates, reflecting a strategy for cross-party collaboration [8]. - Takichi has expressed a preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy, indicating that the Bank of Japan should decide on specific monetary tools while emphasizing the negative impacts of rapid interest rate hikes on investment and housing [9]. Currency and Fiscal Policy - Takichi appears to favor a weaker yen, arguing that yen depreciation benefits export industries and contributes positively to Japan's economic strength [10]. - She supports fiscal expansion and deficit financing, focusing on strategic investments to stimulate economic growth and increase tax revenues, while maintaining that as long as nominal growth exceeds government bond interest rates, debt-to-GDP ratios can remain stable [11]. Short-term Market Reactions - The unexpected nature of Takichi's election is likely to lead to significant price fluctuations in Japanese assets, with expectations of yen depreciation, rising stock prices, and a steepening yield curve for Japanese bonds [14]. - Historical trends from previous elections suggest that markets may react similarly, with potential increases in the Nikkei index and further depreciation of the yen against the dollar [14].

Core Viewpoint - The gold sector stocks have seen significant increases, with GoldMining (GLDG.US) rising over 11% and other companies like Coeur Mining (CDE.US) and Harmony Gold (HMY.US) also experiencing gains, as spot gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time [1] Group 1: Market Performance - GoldMining (GLDG.US) surged over 11% while Coeur Mining (CDE.US) and Gold Fields (GFI.US) rose nearly 3% each, and Harmony Gold (HMY.US) increased by over 2.8% [1] - Spot gold prices have increased by over 50% this year amid concerns over global trade prospects, Federal Reserve independence, and U.S. fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - The urgency for gold price increases has intensified as investors seek to hedge against potential market shocks following the U.S. government funding impasse [1] - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a monetary easing cycle has provided support for gold, which does not yield interest [1] Group 3: ETF Inflows - There has been a significant influx of capital into gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with physically-backed ETFs recording the largest monthly inflow in over three years in September [1]

在黄金史上首次突破每盎司4000美元大关之际，比特币价格反而有所回落。此番回调源于加密市场在不 到一周内大涨7.7%后出现的获利了结，同时巨鲸账户的账面收益也已相当可观。此外，美元指数正攀 升至两个月高位。不过机构对比特币的兴趣并未消退：上周美国现货比特币ETF净流入逾30亿美元，推 动总净流入突破600亿大关；据SoSoValue统计，本周再获20亿美元资金注入。XS.com市场分析师Linh Tran表示，"短期内比特币基本面依然向好，货币宽松预期、持续不断的ETF流入以及不散的避险需求 构成三重支撑。若美联储在后续会议中释放更明确的降息周期启动信号，比特币有望在四季度拓展新的 价格空间。"下一个关键考验或将来自美联储——交易员已开始押注降息，若官方确认政策转向，黄金 与比特币或能重获上涨动能。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses whether the gold market has reached its peak, linking it to global debt dynamics and the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong market [3] - During the holiday period, gold prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, driven by a long-term trend of debt expansion among major global economies, which is expected to continue until 2025 [3] - The appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, who advocates for fiscal and monetary easing, is seen as a reinforcement of the bullish outlook for gold, as her policies aim to revitalize Japan's economy through increased spending and investment [3]

Group 1: US Economic Situation - The US government shutdown began on October 1, 2023, due to unresolved differences between the Republican and Democratic parties regarding healthcare subsidies, leading to uncertainty in economic data releases[11] - The ADP employment data for September indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the lowest monthly performance since April 2023, which reflects significant impacts from tariff policies on the labor market[12] - Despite initial declines, the US dollar index rebounded by 0.8% from October 2 to October 7, reaching approximately 98.5, close to the previous high of 98.55[12] Group 2: European Economic Challenges - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Cornu highlighted fiscal difficulties in the Eurozone, with the government aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.7% of GDP by 2026[17] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in September, indicating a contraction, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, suggesting that the worst impacts of tariff shocks on US production confidence may have passed[18] Group 3: Japanese Economic Policy - Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Kishi is expected to implement fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, causing significant fluctuations in the yen, which reached a three-month low against the dollar[25] - The Japanese economy faces challenges with high government debt levels, and the likelihood of further monetary easing is increasing as inflation pressures remain subdued[26] Group 4: China's Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.8 in September, driven by a rebound in new export orders, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50[31] - The production index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9, indicating a faster pace of production expansion, but domestic demand remains weak[31]

Group 1: US Economic Situation - The US government shutdown began on October 1, 2023, due to unresolved disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties regarding healthcare subsidies, leading to uncertainty in economic data releases[3] - The ADP employment data for September indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the lowest monthly performance since April 2023, which reflects significant impacts from tariff policies on the labor market[3][12] - Despite initial declines, the US dollar index rebounded by 0.8% from October 2 to October 7, reaching approximately 98.5, close to the previous high of 98.55 on September 25[3][12] Group 2: Eurozone and Japan Economic Challenges - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Maire highlighted fiscal difficulties in the Eurozone, with France aiming to reduce its budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP by 2026 and further to about 3% by 2029[4][15] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in September, indicating a contraction, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, suggesting that the worst impacts of tariff shocks on US production confidence may have passed[4][16][17] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi, is expected to pursue fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, causing the yen to depreciate significantly, with the USD/JPY exchange rate nearing 151, the lowest level since March 2023[5][20][21] Group 3: China's Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.8 in September, driven by a rebound in new export orders, although it remained below the expansion threshold of 50[6][23] - The new export orders index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8, indicating a short-term "export rush" amid the ongoing tariff negotiations with the US[6][23] - The production index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9, reflecting improved production expansion, although domestic demand remains weak[6][23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanna Takashi as Japan's first female president marks a significant political shift, with potential implications for the economy and financial markets [1][3]. Economic Policy - Sanna Takashi's economic stance aligns with the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, promoting "Abenomics 2.0," which combines active fiscal policy with loose monetary policy [3]. - Her plan includes eliminating temporary taxes on gasoline and diesel to reduce government revenue while increasing subsidies for healthcare and small businesses, leading to a "revenue reduction and expenditure increase" fiscal expansion [3][5]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates twice in 2024, from -0.1% to 0.25%, and further to 0.5% in early 2025, which will increase government debt servicing costs [5]. Market Reaction - Following Takashi's election, the Nikkei index surged by 4.83%, surpassing 48,000 points, reflecting market optimism regarding liquidity expansion [7]. - Conversely, the yen depreciated by 1.83% against the dollar, breaking the 150 mark for the first time since July 31, indicating market concerns about the yen's future [7][10]. International Relations - The yen's depreciation complicates U.S.-Japan relations, as U.S. Treasury Secretary has called for yen appreciation to reduce the trade deficit, while the current situation undermines the effectiveness of U.S. tariffs on Japan [10]. - Takashi's administration may reconsider previous trade agreements, potentially leading to new negotiations or adjustments to existing tariffs, which could further strain U.S.-Japan relations [10][12]. Challenges Ahead - While "Abenomics 2.0" may provide short-term boosts to the stock market, the accumulation of debt risks, increased currency volatility, and rising trade tensions with the U.S. present significant challenges for Takashi's administration [12]. - The broader implications of her policies will influence Japan's role in the Asia-Pacific economic landscape and could have lasting effects on global economic dynamics [12].