FICC日报 | 2025-12-09 政策利好提振信心，股指放量上涨 市场分析 重要会议释放积极信号。宏观方面，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，明年经济 工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政 策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。海外方面，美联储定于12月9日和10日 举行议息会议，市场普遍认为，美联储很可能再次降息25个基点。市场将高度关注鲍威尔新闻发布会问答环节， 以及本年度最后一份"点阵图"。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数高开高走，沪指涨0.54%收于3924.08点，创业板指涨2.6%。行业方面，板块指 数涨多跌少，通信、电子、非银金融、计算机行业领涨，煤炭、石油石化、食品饮料行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两 市成交额突破2万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.45%报47739.32点。 IF基差修复。期货市场，基差方面，IH、IF的贴水修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面，市场在联储货币政策会议结果揭晓前保持谨慎，美股三大指数小幅收跌。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overseas market focuses on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates potential rate cuts, but their implementation is uncertain. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. The domestic economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting sets a positive tone for policies, and attention should be paid to policy implementation. [1][2][3] - In the financial futures market, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term with a neutral - to - bullish outlook. The bond market's yield decline depends on policy and interest rate changes. The RMB exchange rate is supported by domestic policies, and attention should be paid to US economic data and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation. [2][3][4] - In the commodities market, precious metals are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper, aluminum, and zinc prices are affected by the Fed's meeting and market fundamentals. Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a volatile range. [9][12][15] - In the black market, steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. Iron ore prices have limited downside space, and coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. Ferroalloys are expected to be weakly volatile. [23][24][26] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - term due to supply - demand imbalances. LPG is expected to be strongly volatile. PTA - PX, MEG - bottle chips, etc. are affected by demand decline and supply - side factors. [28][29][30] - In the agricultural products market, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. Oilseeds and oils are expected to be volatile, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and sugar prices remain weak. [62][63][66] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic macro - policies will be more proactive. The Politburo meeting emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded significantly. Overseas, the US has various political and economic events, and the market focuses on the Fed's policy trends. [1][2][3] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly. Domestic macro - policies support the RMB exchange rate. The Fed's meeting and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation are key factors. Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy. [2][3][4] Stock Index - The stock index rose collectively, and the trading volume increased. Multiple positive factors stimulated the stock index, but the market remains cautious. It is recommended to maintain a neutral - to - bullish view and hold long positions. [4] Treasury Bonds - The bond market was affected by the Politburo meeting. The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," and the fiscal policy is "more proactive." It is recommended to hold long - term positions and wait and see in the short - term. [4][5] Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFIS European line index rose slightly. The market is in a long - short game, with factors such as shipping companies' price - raising intentions and the European economic situation affecting the market. The implementation of price - raising plans and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea are risks. [6][7] Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Precious metals are affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and spot market delivery issues. They are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the Fed's meeting and delivery volume. [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices are cautious before the Fed's meeting. The inventory shows different trends, and the industry's operating rate is expected to rise. It is recommended to watch more and act less in the near future and for enterprises to consider buying raw materials. [12][13][14] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, affected by macro - sentiment and copper. Alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weakly volatile. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the price difference with aluminum. [15][16] Zinc - Zinc prices are strongly volatile, affected by macro and fundamental factors. The upside space is limited, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. [16] Tin - Tin prices are in a high - level shock. They are affected by the Fed's meeting and supply - side factors. It is recommended to enter the market on dips. [16][17] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited. The import of lithium ore from Nigeria has a limited impact on the short - term market. The futures and spot markets show different pricing logics. [18][19] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to be in a volatile range. Polysilicon is expected to be weakly volatile due to weak supply and demand. [19][20][21] Lead - Lead prices are strongly volatile, supported by inventory and demand. The short - term shock range is expected to be around 16900 - 17500. [21][22] Black Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. The supply - demand balance is improving, but the profit of steel mills is marginal. The price range of rebar is expected to be 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3500. [23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen, but the downside space is limited. The supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally decreasing. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting and the domestic economic work meeting. [23][24] Coking Coal & Coke - Coking coal prices have fallen due to weak macro - environment and changes in supply - demand. Coke supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of steel mills. [24][25][26] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferroalloys are affected by weak demand and high inventory. They are expected to be weakly volatile, and their downside space is limited. [26][27] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have fallen due to the fading of geopolitical premiums. They are expected to be in a volatile and downward trend in the medium - term, affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and supply - demand imbalances. [28][29] LPG - LPG is in a strongly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and external factors. The domestic market has relatively strong fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. [29][30][31] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is affected by demand decline and market sentiment. The supply - demand structure is relatively good, but the upward drive is limited. It is expected to follow the market sentiment and cost fluctuations. [31][32][33] MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG is affected by terminal demand decline and supply - side factors. The demand negative feedback will gradually spread, and the supply - demand is expected to be in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to short on rallies. [33][34] Methanol - Methanol is affected by delivery games. The 01 contract is expected to reduce positions significantly, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. [35] PP - PP is affected by low - profit and weak market sentiment. The supply is expected to be stable or slightly increase, and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to short further. [37][38] PE - PE is in a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited. It is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. [39][40] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is supported by the spot market and is in a strong - running pattern. [41][42] Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil has rebounded from the bottom, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see for both. [43][44] Asphalt - Asphalt is affected by winter storage policies. The winter storage may be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. It is recommended to use option sellers for two - way strategies or pay attention to the BU03 basis long - matching opportunity. [45][46][47] Rubber - Rubber is in a weakly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see on the short - term single - side and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the range. [48][49] Agricultural Products Pigs - The supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an oversupply pressure, and the far - month is bullish due to expectations. [62] Oilseeds - The market is concerned about the USDA December report. Imported soybeans' supply and demand are affected by factors such as purchase and arrival. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the contract change. [63][64][65] Oils - Oils are in a volatile pattern, waiting for market guidance. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as production, export, and supply. [66] Cotton - Cotton prices have limited downside space due to new cotton listing and downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level at around 13800. [66][67] Sugar - Sugar prices remain weak due to sufficient supply and weak demand. [67][68] Eggs - Egg prices have rebounded in the short - term. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to participate in the long - position game with a light position. [69][70] Apples - Apple futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is still in a relatively strong pattern. [70][71] Jujubes - Jujubes are in a low - level shock pattern. The new - season jujube production is being determined, and the price is expected to have limited downside space. [71][72][73]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货12月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 112.730 | 112.600 | 112.300 | 112.300 | -0.430 | -0.38 | 132 | 5681 | -590 | | TL2603 | 112.570 | 112.410 | 112.240 | 112 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers detailed analyses and outlooks for various futures products, encompassing financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions for each product based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, market sentiment, and macro - economic policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in certain sectors is stable. A bullish stance on tin prices is recommended, with existing long positions to be held and additional long positions to be added on price pullbacks [2]. - **Corn**: The corn market is under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. The short - term outlook is for a downward trend, but the decline may be limited. Short - term trading is advised [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Port inventories are continuously increasing, and market sentiment is bearish. EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. A bearish view on coking coal is maintained, with a recommended trading range of 1000 - 1150. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is suggested [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market rallied on Monday, with most major indices rising. TMT sectors were particularly strong, while cyclical sectors corrected. - **News**: The Politburo meeting proposed a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026. Overseas, Trump ordered an investigation into the US food supply chain. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume increased by over 300 billion yuan, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the upcoming Fed meeting and the expected rate cut, it is recommended to lightly and gradually build a bullish spread on CSI 1000 put options on price pullbacks [6][7][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year contract declined, while the 10 - year contract rose slightly. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of improving the quality and effectiveness of policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to temporarily observe the market. If market sentiment improves, consider going long on Treasury bond futures with maturities of less than 10 years. A curve - steepening strategy is also suggested [9][10][12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US inflation expectations were stable, and employment data improved. Japan's GDP contracted in Q3. The Fed's "shadow chairman" was less dovish than expected, leading to a stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields. Precious metals prices continued to fluctuate. - **Outlook**: Gold prices are expected to trade sideways around $4200. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides is recommended. Silver prices are also expected to be range - bound. Platinum prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term but may be affected by short - term fluctuations in gold and silver prices [13][14][15]. Shipping Index (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - **Index**: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and other related indices showed a downward trend. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's PMI was above 50, while the US manufacturing PMI was below 50. - **Logic**: The futures market was volatile, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term sideways movement [18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level and volatile. Supply concerns are growing, and demand has weakened at high prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in the long - term and take profits on short - term long positions when prices are high [19][20][23]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a weak downward trend, with high supply and inventory. It is expected to trade at the bottom, and short - term traders can consider going long on dips or selling out - of - the money put options [24][25][26]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback at high prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and domestic inventory changes [26][27][28]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to trade in a narrow range at a high level. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [29][30][31]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are at a high level and volatile. Export demand has tightened the spot market. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC inflection point and changes in refined zinc inventories [31][32][35]. - **Tin**: The fundamental outlook is strong, and prices are expected to remain strong. Existing long positions should be held, and additional long positions can be added on dips [35][37][38]. - **Nickel**: The market is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to macro - economic expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [38][39][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is expected to recover through oscillations. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production cuts and raw material price changes [41][42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is expected to trade in a wide range. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44][45][48]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures market is expected to trade at a high level and may decline. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [49][50][51]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to trade at a low level and may decline slightly. If there are existing long positions, they can be held [52][53][54]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are affected by falling raw material prices. A strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore is recommended [54][55][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to weaken. A strategy of shorting the 2605 contract on rallies is recommended [59][60]. - **Coke**: Coke prices are expected to decline. A bearish view is maintained, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is recommended [61][62][63]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The domestic meal market is in a loose supply situation. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report. The market is expected to be weak, but the basis may strengthen [64][65][68]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are showing signs of stabilization and rebound. The futures market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term [69][70]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. Short - term trading is advised [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a bearish situation, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly [74]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is at the bottom and trading sideways, and the domestic cotton price is expected to trade within a range [76][77]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be weak but with limited downside potential [79]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices are expected to trade sideways, and soybean oil prices are expected to decline slightly [80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market is expected to trade in a low - level range, with limited upside potential [82]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are expected to remain stable with slow sales [83][84]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: PX prices are expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton in the short term, with a positive medium - term outlook [85][86]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are expected to trade in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton in the short term. A TA5 - 9 low - level positive spread strategy is recommended [87][88][89]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber market is expected to see a compression of processing margins. A strategy similar to PTA is recommended [90]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips (PR)**: PR prices are expected to follow the cost trend, and processing margins are expected to be squeezed. A strategy of shorting processing margins is recommended [91][92]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [93][94]. - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term outlook for pure benzene is weak, and it may follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [95][96]. - **Styrene**: Styrene prices are expected to be slightly strong in the short term, but the upside potential is limited [97][99]. - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are expected to trade in the range of 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton [100]. - **PP**: The 01 contract of PP is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [101]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are expected to be weak in the short term. A strategy of reducing 05MTO positions is recommended [101]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda prices are expected to continue to decline. Short positions can be held [103][104]. - **PVC**: PVC prices are expected to remain weak at the bottom [105]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices are expected to decline. Short positions can be held [106][107]. - **Glass**: Glass prices are expected to be bearish [106][108]. - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [108][109][110]. - **Synthetic Rubber (BR)**: BR prices are expected to face resistance at the upper level. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [111][112].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

2025 年 12 月 9 日 总量研究 积极有为，实现"十五五"良好开局 ——2025 年 12 月政治局会议精神学习 作者 要点 事件： 12 月 8 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 核心观点： 12 月政治局会议对明年宏观政策和经济工作进行了提纲挈领的部署。具体来说， 相较于 2024 年 12 月政治局会议， 一是，在对当前形势的判断上，本次会议最大的变化在于认为当前重点领域风险化 解取得积极进展； 二是，对于明年经济目标，依然以内需作为首要任务，着力点落于"四稳"之上； 三是，对于明年政策基调，在延续更加积极的政策总基调之余，重提"跨周期"， 强调平衡短期经济刺激与长期结构性改革和政策可持续性的空间，注重提升前期已 落地政策的实质性效力； 四是，对于明年具体的工作任务，内需、创新、改革、开放依然是核心的主旋律， 风险化解的排序降至最后一位。 一、对当前整体形势的判断：重点领域风险化解取得积极进展 2025 年 12 月政治局会议，肯定了当前经济的向好势头，并就风险化解的进展做 出了积极定调。会议提出"经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现"，并就当前经济几 方面的形势做出重要定 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 9 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：金融搭台科技唱戏 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：重要会议过后，债市情绪缓和 4 | | 蛋白粕：短期利空较多 | 盘面承压下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡偏弱 | 国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：国内油脂有所去库，盘面维持震荡运行 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面继续回落 7 | | | 生猪：市场接受度增加 | 盘面有所反弹 8 | | 花生：大型油厂开始收购，花生盘面冲高回落 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 9 | | 苹果：库存较低 | 苹果基本面偏强 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 11 | | 钢材：市场情绪反复，钢价震荡运行 13 | | --- | | 双焦：情绪偏弱，等待冬储启动 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本有支撑，需求存压制 15 | | 金银：市场聚焦美联储信号 金银波动或加剧 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：价格高位 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 9 日 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/9 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 胶版印刷纸 | 焦煤 | 多晶硅 | 红枣 | | | | 焦炭 | 液化石油气 | | | | | 瓶片 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 短纤 | 铅 | | | | | PTA | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 乙二醇 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 玉米 | 锌 | | | | | 橡胶 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 尿 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 9 日 政治局会议点评 提质增效 行稳致远 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中 国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 外部环境关注度有所上升。在宏观形势的判断上，本次会议对 2025 年及 过去五年的经济成就给予了肯定，认为'十四五'规划目标将顺利实 现。对于下一阶段的政策目标，本次会议首次提出'更好统筹国内经济 工作和国际经贸斗争'，显示当前外部环境不确定性加大背景下，政策 对于外部环境的关注度有所上升。 开局'十五五'，提质增效，行稳致远。宏观政策定调上，延续了'稳 中求进'的总基调的同时以'提质增效'代替去年的'以进促稳'；强 调'发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度'； 同时指出'增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性'，'持续扩大内需、优化供 给、做优增量、盘活存量'，可见 2026 年宏观政策 ...