今天上午的最新消息，美国发布安全警告，声称，伊朗全国范围内持续加强安全管控，局势紧张，敦促 美国公民尽快自行离开伊朗！ 这个剧情大家是不是很熟悉？记起来没有？对！1月10号的时候，美国要攻打委内瑞拉之前，美国政府 也同样发布了这样的公告，随后就动手了，然后黄金涨了1000美元。 想想看，这回是打伊朗啊，伊朗可不像委内瑞拉那样的软柿子，不好拿捏啊！这种战争不会像之前那么 容易，可能会持续非常长的时间，这会增加全球金融市场的避险情绪，对黄金价格是一个极大的利好！ 期货公司观点 美国和伊朗这回真的要干起来了，兄弟们，大家瞧好吧，黄金这回可能又要坐上直升机了。 广发期货： 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰动，综合来看短期消息面影响减弱行情维持偏强震荡但波动回落，黄金在 20 日均线上方 ...

今日国内黄金市场延续昨日跌势，所有主流品牌金价均出现明显回调，市场观望情绪进一步加剧。目前金价整体区间已下 移至1477-1500元/克，老凤祥报价1500元/克仍为最高价金店，但高低价差已缩窄至23元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年2月6日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1485 | 元/克 | 70 | 脱 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1480 | 元/克 | 73 | 跌 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1482 | 元/克 | 73 | 品 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1477 | 元/克 | 73 | 跌 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1480 | 元/克 | 73 | 版 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1500 | 元/克 | 68 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1482 | 元/克 | 73 | 品 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1484 | 元/克 | 74 | 跌 | | 菜百黄金价格 | 1495 | 元/克 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic decline in silver prices has raised questions among investors about where the bottom lies and when a recovery might occur [8] Group 1: Price Movements and Volatility - Silver prices experienced a nearly 30% drop last Friday and have struggled to stabilize, with a subsequent 19% decline on Thursday after brief rebounds earlier in the week [9] - UBS strategists noted that the recent drop appears driven more by widespread risk aversion than by fundamental collapse, warning that extreme volatility poses significant risks for short-term positions [9] - The one-month volatility of silver has exceeded 100%, indicating potential for severe price fluctuations in the short term [9] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - UBS forecasts a supply deficit of nearly 300 million ounces this year, with investment demand expected to exceed 400 million ounces, although high prices may suppress industrial demand [9] - The London Stock Exchange (LSEG) reported that silver has recorded 11 instances of price movements of 5% or more since the beginning of the year [9] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, UBS believes the long-term fundamentals for silver remain intact, driven by declining nominal and real interest rates, global debt issues, dollar depreciation, and expectations of global economic recovery by 2026 [9] - Vasu Menon from OCBC maintains a structural bullish outlook for silver, suggesting that it possesses dual characteristics of precious and industrial metals, which can make it vulnerable during periods of heightened risk aversion [11] - Menon set a long-term price target for silver at $134 per ounce by March 2027, highlighting its applications in solar energy, catalysts, and electronics [11] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Nicky Shiels from MKS PAMP indicated that silver's recent performance lacks similarities to past bull markets driven by physical supply constraints, labeling it as a "meme commodity" due to its extreme volatility [10] - The expansion of retail channels has amplified speculative capital flows into silver, with expectations that prices may need to digest excess pressure from previous gains before rebounding, potentially dropping to $60 per ounce [10]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On February 4, gold prices surged, with New York gold futures reaching a peak of $5082.2 per ounce, marking a single-day increase of $53.4 [3][4] - The Shanghai gold spot market also reacted, with prices hitting a high of 1096.85 yuan per gram, reflecting a rebound of over $600 from a low of $4400 per ounce just two days prior [3][4] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened "risk aversion" among investors, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. debt, leading to significant inflows into the gold market [5][6] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Challenges - On the same day, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling 5.4% to a low of $72047, marking its lowest point since November 2024, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 16% [4][6] - Ethereum also faced a decline of over 5.8%, closing at $20.48, down nearly 60% from its peak last year [4][6] - The cryptocurrency market saw a total liquidation of approximately 18.6 million people, with a total liquidation amount of $8.87 billion (around 64 billion yuan), indicating severe market distress [4][6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Behavior - The contrasting performance of gold and cryptocurrencies is largely due to differing investor sentiments, with gold being viewed as a "safe haven" asset, while cryptocurrencies are seen as speculative investments [5][8] - Retail investors in the gold market reported significant profits, with one individual stating they earned over 4000 yuan in just two days from a gold purchase, highlighting the appeal of gold as a stable investment [6][8] - Conversely, many retail investors in the cryptocurrency market faced substantial losses, with reports of individuals losing significant amounts in a short period, reflecting the high volatility and risks associated with crypto trading [7][8]

摘要今日周五(2月6日)亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1063.33元/克，较前一交易日下跌2.36元，跌幅 0.22%，日内呈现震荡走势。当日开盘价报1065.99元/克，盘中最高触及1069.68元/克，最低下探至 1038.67元/克。 今日周五(2月6日)亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1063.33元/克，较前一交易日下跌2.36元，跌幅0.22%， 日内呈现震荡走势。当日开盘价报1065.99元/克，盘中最高触及1069.68元/克，最低下探至1038.67元/ 克。 阿曼会谈美方由库什纳与特使维特科夫领衔，伊朗外长阿拉格齐出席。白宫称外交是"首选"，但强调特 朗普保留军事选项，要求伊朗"零核能力"，鲁比奥则主张谈判须涵盖导弹限制、反恐及人权议题。分析 人士多认为，德黑兰难做足够让步，军事冲突可能性更高，以色列正游说打击，特朗普或因缺乏耐心被 说服动武。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 黄金昨夜延续走弱，符合近期预期。此前一轮强势反弹或已告一段落，接下来金价大概率进入弱势震荡 格局。短期走势的关键在于今日美伊谈判进展——若谈判引发避险情绪升温，黄金或迎来一波上冲;若 地缘局势缓和，则金价可能在低位延续弱势震荡并逐步 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260206 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好降幅，A 股缩量普跌 海外方面，美国开年就业走弱线索增多：①最新初请失业金人数升至 23.1 万人，预期 21.2 万人，受极端天气扰动短期跳升；②12 月 JOLTS 职位空缺降至 654.2 万个，预期 720 万个，创 2020 年 9 月以来新低，且不同规模企业普遍回落，部分反映企业在 AI 提效背景下 对新增岗位需求趋谨慎。欧洲央行 2 月议息会议如期按兵不动，其认为通胀与增长判断基本 稳定、中期通胀仍回归 2%、经济路径与去年 12 月预测一致。行长拉加德认为形势"总体平 衡"，在承认外部不确定性的同时，重申政策立场稳健，短期暂无调整必要。在就业数据走 弱与海外 AI 叙事担忧共振下，市场风险偏好持续收缩：美股普遍下跌超 1%，VIX 抬升；贵 金属再度调整，黄金跌近 4%、白银回撤约 20%；美元指数上探 98 关口，资金转向避险的美 债，10Y 利率回落至 4.17%。原定于本周五晚公布的非农数据推迟至下周三发布，重要 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall view is shock consolidation. Although the latest macroeconomic indicators are weak, there is a need for a loose monetary and credit environment and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, and the demand for bond investment is boosted by risk - aversion. However, due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, so the bond futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, and the view reference is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded yesterday. The weakening of macroeconomic indicators implies concerns in the demand side, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts and strong support for bond futures. The intensified disturbance of the Fed's monetary policy expectation and the volatility of silver also boost the demand for bond investment. But due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient [5].

美国就业市场显现疲软迹象加剧了美股、大宗商品及加密货币的回落，这推动投资者加大对美联储政策 宽松的押注，美债大幅上涨，收益率创下数月来最大跌幅。数据显示，周四，对美联储政策预期更为敏 感的短期美债领涨。两年期美债收益率下跌9个基点至3.46%，为1月8日以来最低水平，且创下自去年 10月以来的最大单日跌幅;三年期和五年期美债收益率也分别大跌10个基点。十年期美债收益率跌幅较 小，一度使两年期与十年期美债收益率之差扩大至接近73个基点，达到去年4月以来最阔水平，并逼近 2022年以来的最大陡峭程度。 周四就业市场数据公布后，掉期市场计入了更多美联储宽松预期 经济数据显示，美国企业裁员公告数量激增、初请失业金人数上升、就业岗位空缺下降。交易员将美联 储下一次降息的时间预期从7月提前至6月，并预计10月前将进行第二次降息。 与此同时，美股软件股抛售潮的延续令投资者转向美债以寻求避险。避险情绪同样提振了美元，美元指 数有望取得四周以来的首次周度上涨，并收于两周高位。 SEI Investments Corp.固定收益投资管理主管Sean Simko表示："就业数据是导火索，但市场在一段时间 内已经处于充分定价状态，现 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin, which has dropped below $65,000, erasing gains made after Trump's election victory [1][2] - The forced liquidation of leveraged positions and a general decline in market risk appetite have exacerbated the sell-off in the cryptocurrency market [1][2] - The MarketVector Digital Assets 100 Small Cap Index has experienced a decline of approximately 70% over the past year, indicating severe losses among smaller speculative tokens [1] Group 2 - The recent downturn in Bitcoin prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a sell-off triggered by redemption pressures and forced liquidations of high-leverage positions [2][3] - Market analysts note that Bitcoin's performance has shifted closer to high-risk assets rather than serving as an inflation hedge, especially amid volatility in tech stocks and precious metals [3] - Concerns over potential changes in monetary policy, particularly regarding the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Fed Chair, have led to fears of a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which is perceived as unfavorable for cryptocurrencies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, treasury bond futures all rebounded in a volatile manner. The latest macroeconomic indicators have weakened, indicating potential concerns on the demand side. A relatively loose monetary and credit environment is needed in the future, and there are still expectations for interest rate cuts, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. Additionally, recent intensified disturbances in the expectations of the overseas Federal Reserve's monetary policy have led to sharp fluctuations in silver, boosting the investment demand for treasury bonds due to the risk - averse sentiment. However, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, and the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has slowed down. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On February 5th, the People's Bank of China announced that it carried out 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method with an operation rate of 1.4%. At the same time, it carried out 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, and multiple - price winning method. With 345 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturing today, the open market achieved a net injection of 64.5 billion yuan [6]