以伊冲突全面爆发，避险情绪能否推升金价再创新高？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

随着以色列与伊朗冲突的风险评估持续发酵，部分油轮船东及管理公司自上周五起暂停为中东航线提供 船舶运力，这一举措引发了市场对该地区能源出口流通的担忧。 据不愿具名的船舶经纪商及租船方透露，近期试图租用油轮从波斯湾运输原油和成品油的产油商与贸易 商面临运力短缺。另有消息人士称，部分原定于上周五签署的临时租船协议因船东拒绝续约而未能最终 确认。 尽管目前出现大规模或持续性供应中断的可能性较低，但未来数周全球原油市场将密切关注中东及周边 海域的航运安全形势。该地区原油产量约占全球三分之一，若波斯湾航运受阻，沙特、阿联酋等主要出 口国难以通过其他渠道分流货物。 随着冲突态势加剧——包括以色列对伊朗能源及核设施的空袭，油轮船东正严密监控经霍尔木兹海峡进 入波斯湾的航行条件。虽然尚未出现大规模改道情况，但船东暂停海湾地区新航次签约的行为，可能导 致运价飙升及潜在航运中断。 船舶经纪数据显示，上周五中东至中国超大型油轮基准航线TD3C运价已攀升至55-58 WS(Worldscale,世 界油船费率表)，较周初上涨20%-30%。尽管周一市场缺乏公开报价，但据业内人士透露，该指标已进 一步升至65 WS附近。据了解，WS以基 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 264500 | 810 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32780 | 80 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 310 | 120 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 23916 | -676 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 2765 | -974 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2260 | -105 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7107 | -265 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 415 | -105 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6760 | -14 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 265300 | -300 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 265190 | -490 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 1910 | 1760 LME锡升贴水(0- ...

人生总有坎坷崎岖，风霜雪雨不断磨砺。痛苦快乐轮番交替，悲欢离合缠绕不息。雾里赏花微风柳絮，金秋硕果 冬雪红梅。得失成败别挂心里，谋事在人成事天意。只要你是尽心努力，就能做到问心无愧，得不忘形失不气 绥，耐心积累以待良机。 6.16黄金策略：1--2410附近直接多，止损3400，目标3420-3435 2--3440附近空，止损3452，目标3430-2420 现货黄金，白银、积存金，走势分析,黄金，融通金，原油，最新策略 原油近期受中东局势影响，迎来了猛烈上涨，成功突破之前60—65震荡区间，多头连续大阳拉升至76附近，看涨 势头尤其猛烈。当前，中东局势越演越烈，原油供应需求乐观，国际局势面助涨原油走势。技术面也是连续大阳 拉升，成功打开日线布林上轨空间，均线呈多头排列扩散。那么操作上就显而易见了，72可以直接多，若是到70 附近必须多。 中东地缘局势的进一步加剧推动了避险情绪的升温，另外美国疲软的通胀数据，这进一步强化了市场对美联储降 息的预期，从而增加了黄金的吸引力。本周全球市场聚焦美联储三大关键动作：政策会议、零售销售数据和地缘 政治局势。目前普遍预期美联储将维持利率不变，但其经济预测和降息表态将直接 ...

Core Viewpoint - German and US government bonds are likely to continue lacking clear direction due to inflation concerns and risk aversion amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - Eurozone government bond yields have generally increased slightly, with the rise in yields being consistent with that of US and Japanese government bonds [1] - The 10-year German government bond yield rose by 1.2 basis points to 2.544% [1] - The 10-year US government bond yield increased by 1 basis point, currently trading at 4.433% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The research department of Deutsche Bank, led by Rainer Gunterman, indicates that the current market sentiment is influenced by inflation worries and geopolitical tensions [1] - Japanese government bonds are underperforming compared to Eurozone and US bonds [1]

实时黄金订单流分析 避险情绪重燃！本周黄金行情如何前瞻？多头能否再下一城？阿汤哥正在用订单流实时分析，点击观看 订阅期货大宗商品趋势 +订阅 相关链接 ...

新华财经北京6月16日电在避险情绪推动下，上周（6月9日至13日当周）国际现货黄金强势走高。当周 金价开盘3310.60美元／盎司，最高触及3446.75美元／盎司，最低3293.67美元／盎司，报收3433.47美元 ／盎司，全周上涨121.79美元或3.68%，周收盘价创下历史最高，且为连续第二周收涨。 分析来看，疲弱的美国通胀数据强化了市场对美联储将降息的预期，增加了黄金的吸引力；中东紧张局 势升级则进一步促使避险资金涌入黄金。在此背景下，展望新的一周金价走势，虽然美联储利率会议将 要登场，鲍威尔讲话或再度引爆市场，但随着周末中东地缘局势愈演愈烈，受益于避险情绪高涨，金价 或有望测试3500美元／盎司关口。 特朗普关税政策"续命"，贸易摩擦跌宕 上周初，受贸易局势积极变动的影响，市场情绪缓和，金价一度弱势下探，并测试3300-3290美元／盎 司支撑。不过，美国贸易政策的不确定性，导致市场对贸易局势紧张的担忧依然存在。尤其是美国总统 特朗普上周四（6月12日）在一项法案签署仪式上发表讲话时表示，可能会提高美国汽车关税，以提振 国内汽车制造业。这一表态被市场认为此举可能进一步加剧美国与贸易伙伴的紧张关系。 ...

Group 1: Conflict and Market Impact - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, with Israel conducting airstrikes targeting Iranian military leadership and nuclear facilities, leading to a significant drop in the Iranian stock market [1] - The conflict has resulted in continued bombings, with key Iranian energy infrastructure, such as refineries and gas fields, becoming primary targets, which has further heightened tensions [1] - The U.S. stock market futures experienced a decline due to the escalating conflict, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropping by 31 points, a decrease of 0.1% [3] Group 2: Energy Market Reaction - Israeli attacks on Iranian energy facilities have directly contributed to a rise in oil prices, with U.S. oil prices increasing by 2% to $74.50 per barrel and Brent crude oil prices also rising by 2% to $75.77 per barrel [5] - Oil prices surged by 7% at the onset of the conflict, and Iranian lawmakers are considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy trade, through which approximately 21% of the world's oil is transported [5] - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research head predicts that if Iranian oil supply is completely disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could potentially exceed $120 per barrel [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting to discuss inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical instability, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [7] - The meeting will also include new forecasts for future interest rates and economic indicators, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference [7] - The anticipation of no rate cuts later this year has put upward pressure on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [7]

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a new high in gold prices over the past two months [1] - Weak inflation data from the US has reinforced market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, increasing the attractiveness of gold assets [1] - Upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's speech, are expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] Group 2 - A trading strategy suggests buying gold on a pullback to the 3420-3415 range, with a stop loss at 3407 and a target of 3440-3460 [2] - Technical analysis indicates a critical resistance zone at 3455-3460; failure to break this level may lead to a technical pullback [3] - Key support levels to monitor include 3420, which is a short-term pivot point, and 3410-3405, which is a critical trend support level [3]

6月16日，国际金价再度延续涨势，COMEX黄金高点突破3470美元/盎司，已逼近此前于今年4月下旬创 下的历史高点。 "下周美联储将召开6月议息会议，不降息在预期之内，市场更加关注美联储关于下半年通胀和货币政策 表态。地缘政治方面，以色列突袭伊朗，伊朗随后报复袭击以色列，双方冲突逐步升级，后期关注整个 中东地区的局势是否有再次走向混乱的局面，以及美国方面的表态。"展大鹏称，对于金价后续走势， 短期的关注点将从贸易冲突转向地缘政治，在地缘局势预期继续走向恶化之时，毫无疑问将继续推动金 价走势。对于白银而言，黄金的滞涨带动白银的补涨，但地缘态势的转变使得资金再次聚焦黄金，白银 则顺势回调，但金银比的回归以及金价的再次上涨，使得银价向上空间吸引力再次加大。 国际金价拉动下，沪金主力合约2508于16日早盘已一度突破800元/克关口，相比7月15日732元/克的低 点，录得最大超9%的涨幅。 方正中期期货认为，地缘政治冲突升温，市场避险情绪回归，金银比再度走高。在美元信用受损，美债 规模不断增加的背景下，金银中长期上行逻辑未改。 金价连日回暖拉动下，金饰克单价也已重回1000元/克上方。6月16日，周生生足金饰品价 ...