Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles is the recent monetary policy adjustments by the central bank, including a reduction in deposit and loan interest rates, which has led to a significant decrease in the performance benchmarks of various wealth management products offered by banks [1][2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - In May, the central bank implemented a "combination punch" of monetary policy, reducing the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, resulting in a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [2][6]. - Major state-owned banks initiated their first deposit rate cuts of the year, with the interest rate for demand deposits dropping to 0.05%, nearing "zero interest," and the one-year deposit rate falling below 1% [2][3]. Group 2: Wealth Management Product Adjustments - Over 300 wealth management products adjusted their performance benchmarks in May, with some products experiencing reductions exceeding 100 basis points [1][2][3]. - For instance, the benchmark for a specific product from Xingyin Wealth Management was adjusted from an annualized range of 2.20%-4.15% to 1.60%-2.60%, with the upper and lower limits reduced by 60 basis points and 155 basis points, respectively [3][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - As of early June, the average annualized yield for open-ended fixed-income wealth management products was 2.85%, while the one-year yield averaged 2.41%, indicating a downward trend in yields [6][7]. - The total scale of the wealth management market surpassed 30 trillion yuan, driven by the "deposit migration" effect as deposit rates fell [7][11]. Group 4: Investor Demand and Product Supply Mismatch - There is a notable mismatch between investor risk preferences and the types of wealth management products available, with 46.69% of investors having a risk preference of C3 or higher, while only 4.31% of products fall into the R3 category or above [13][14]. - The low-risk perception of wealth management products has limited their sustainable development, as the supply of low-volatility products does not align with the growing demand for diverse investment options [13][14].

关税扰动持续，基本面支撑仍存 6月铜月报 2025-6-3 【产业服务总部 | 有色产业中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 02 宏观因素分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 5月铜价区间震荡。运行区间7.7万元-7.9万元。特朗普关税政策持续影响市场，中美、英美就关税达成一致协议减弱关税负面影响，美国与欧盟等国贸 易谈判仍过程阻滞。美国通胀升温预期仍存，就业整体稳健。基本面偏强，矿端仍较为紧缺，铜精矿现货粗炼费持续负值且扩大，Kakula因震动而停产，同 时铜下游需求端仍有支撑，中美经贸会谈达成带来抢出口需求，低库存仍支撑铜价。 资料来源：同花顺ifind、长江期货有色产业服务中心 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 沪铜主力日K线 美国 ...

Core Insights - The top 100 real estate companies in China saw a significant increase in land acquisition amounts in the first five months of the year, totaling 405.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [1] - State-owned enterprises dominate land acquisition, with eight out of the top ten companies being state-owned, while some private companies like Binjiang Group also showed strong investment [1] - The top three companies in terms of new value added are Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Jinmao, with new values of 72.8 billion yuan, 72.3 billion yuan, and 60.3 billion yuan respectively [1] Land Transaction Overview - In the first five months, residential land transactions across 300 cities totaled 1.3 million square meters, showing a slight year-on-year decline, while land transfer fees increased by over 20% [1] - Core cities continue to see high demand for quality land, with significant premium rates observed in cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Beijing [1] Regional Insights - The Yangtze River Delta leads the four major city clusters in land acquisition, with the top ten companies acquiring 125.27 billion yuan worth of land, followed by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at 73.4 billion yuan [2] - Major companies are focusing on core cities for land acquisition, with state-owned and local state-owned enterprises being the primary players, while private companies are supplementing land reserves in key areas [2] High-Value Land Transactions - In May, several cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Nanjing saw high total price land transactions, with the highest being a plot in Haidian District, Beijing, sold for 4.5 billion yuan at a premium rate of 11.95% [3] - State-owned enterprises dominate high-value land acquisitions, with Poly Developments securing multiple plots [3] Market Outlook - The ongoing recovery of the real estate market remains a key policy goal, with expectations for continued implementation of supportive measures focusing on urban village renovations and high-quality housing supply [3] - There is an increased expectation for macroeconomic policies to be more proactive, including potential interest rate cuts and lower housing loan rates, which may enhance market stability [3]

Export Data and Tariff Impact - In April, China's export growth showed a marginal slowdown, with a significant decline in exports to the US, indicating the actual impact of tariff increases is becoming evident [1][10] - The export growth structure can be categorized into three scenarios: overall export slowdown with simultaneous declines in both US and non-US exports, export decline to the US but an increase in non-US exports, and a decline in US exports with overall export growth improving due to non-US exports [2][12] - Industries facing significant revenue impact due to export declines include home appliances, non-ferrous metals, light industry, machinery, and textiles [2][14] Monthly Market Review - In May, risk assets generally experienced a recovery, with A-shares showing a preference for value styles, while sectors like environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and military industries led the gains [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with fluctuations in risk appetite, influenced by tariff negotiations and concerns over US debt risks [3][21] June Market Outlook and Allocation Recommendations - The market is expected to continue its oscillation with a downward shift in the central tendency, influenced by tariff expectations and policy anticipation [4][5] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in low-volatility dividend stocks, focusing on sectors like electricity, banking, and consumer goods, while also considering trading opportunities in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [5][6]

债市周五（30日）震荡回暖，国债期货全线收涨，银行间现券超长端带动曲线回落，收益率普遍下行1- 2BPs；公开市场单日净投放1486亿元，资金利率再度分化。 机构认为，预计年内仍然有降准降息空间，央行也将适时重启国债净买入。随着新利率走廊框架基本完 成，中期资金到期规模大，但央行对资金利率的掌控力度增加，资金利率大概率维持平稳。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.56%报119.410，10年期主力合约涨0.21%报108.725，5年 期主力合约涨0.14%报106.02，2年期主力合约涨0.04%报102.396。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间5月29日，10年期法债收益率跌4.8BPs报3.174%，10年期德债收益率跌 4.7BPs报2.505%，10年期意债收益率跌4.6BPs报3.488%，10年期西债收益率跌4.6BPs报3.106%。其他市 场方面，10年期英债收益率跌8BPs报4.645%。 【资金面】 公开市场方面，央行公告称，5月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2911亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量2911亿元，中标量2911亿元。数据显示，当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The China's economic growth in April showed resilience, with industrial production and exports exceeding market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption slightly fell short. The 90 - day window period from the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite, but long - term uncertainties remain. After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, there is a low probability of another such move in the short - to - medium term. The "export rush" factor will contribute to the stable growth of the Chinese economy in the second quarter. Chinese treasury bond yields do not have much room to rise significantly, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate widely in the next month. A strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [89]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - **Treasury Futures Active Contract Trends**: Since November 2024, the treasury futures market had a significant continuous increase until January 2025. After the central bank suspended open - market treasury bond purchases on January 10, the 30 - year variety reached a high in early February and then declined until mid - March when it rebounded. In early April, the futures prices rose due to the US tariff news, then fluctuated horizontally. After the Sino - US joint statement on May 12, prices slightly declined and then had narrow - range fluctuations [9]. - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Trends**: Most treasury bond spot yields reached their lowest points in early January, over - reacting to the "moderately loose monetary policy." After the central bank's announcement on January 10, yields rebounded. The short - term interest rates rebounded faster than long - term ones. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.90% in mid - March, dropped rapidly in early April due to tariffs, and then stabilized. As of May 28, it was around 1.68% [12]. - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve**: On May 28, compared with the end of April, the yield curve shifted upward and steepened, showing a "bear steepening" pattern. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 3BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 9BP respectively [15]. 3.2. Current Analysis - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 4.26%. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.85%, manufacturing investment by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%. High - tech industries and equipment purchase investment showed strong growth [20]. - **Real Estate Sales**: From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% [23]. - **Social Consumption**: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 5.5%. Categories such as household appliances and furniture had significant year - on - year increases [26][29]. - **Service Industry**: In April, the national service industry production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than March's 6.3% [32]. - **Foreign Trade**: In April, China's exports in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2%. Exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%, to the EU by 8.27%, and decreased by 21.03% to the US. After the Sino - US joint statement on May 12, the CCFI US - West route index rebounded [35][38][41]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In April, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.2% [44]. - **Industrial Profits**: From January to April, large - scale industrial enterprises' operating income increased by 3.2% year - on - year, and total profits increased by 1.4%. In April, profits increased by 3.0% year - on - year [47]. - **Social Financing and Credit**: In April, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, and credit - caliber RMB loans increased by 2800 billion yuan, both lower than expected [50][53]. - **Monetary Supply**: At the end of April, M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year [56]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In April, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [59]. - **Prices**: In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year [62][65]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points starting from May 15 and cut the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate by 10BP starting from May 8. LPR and bank deposit rates were also lowered [68][74]. - **Exchange Rate**: From January to April, the US dollar index declined, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB dropped after a brief rise in early April. The decline of the US dollar index reduced the pressure on the RMB's depreciation against the US dollar [71]. - **Interest Rate Spreads**: The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond interest rate spread widened slightly in May compared to April. The 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond interest rate spread and the 30 - year and 10 - year spread were at 0.22% on May 28 [80][86]. - **Government Bond Financing**: As of May 28, government bond net financing in May was 1494.8 billion yuan, maintaining a fast pace [83]. 3.3. Strategy Suggestions Considering that Chinese treasury bond yields do not have much room to rise significantly, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate widely in the next month, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [89].

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy adjustments by the central bank, including a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1% interest rate reduction, present both challenges and opportunities for the banking wealth management market [2][3]. Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities in Banking Wealth Management - The primary challenges include a decrease in bond yields and interbank deposit rates due to interest rate cuts, leading to reduced returns on fixed-income wealth management products and exacerbating the "asset shortage" [2][3]. - Conservative investors, who are sensitive to declining yields, may face further pressure on bank net interest margins due to the lag in deposit rate adjustments [2]. - Potential opportunities arise from the release of over one trillion yuan in long-term funds due to the reserve requirement cut, which, combined with stock market volatility, may drive a temporary expansion in low-risk wealth management products [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Monetary Policy on Banking Wealth Management - The interest rate cuts directly lower market interest rates, resulting in decreased expected returns on wealth management products [3]. - Banks may accelerate the transition to diversified strategies like "fixed income plus" to enhance returns by increasing the proportion of equity and derivative assets [3]. - The competitive landscape will further differentiate, with leading wealth management subsidiaries leveraging stronger research capabilities and brand effects to adapt more quickly to the low-interest environment, while smaller institutions may face pressure to shrink if they cannot effectively manage costs or optimize asset allocation [3]. Group 3: Future Changes in Banking Wealth Management Products - Expected further compression in the yield levels of wealth management products, with a downward trend in the performance benchmarks for fixed-income products [4]. - An increase in the proportion of short-term products to meet investors' liquidity needs [4]. - A diversification in product types, including low-volatility stable products and thematic products (e.g., technology innovation, rural revitalization), to cater to varying risk preferences and return requirements of investors [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies for Individual Investors in a Low-Interest Environment - In a low-interest rate context, the relative value of equity assets becomes more pronounced, necessitating careful asset allocation based on individual risk tolerance [5]. - Emphasis on diversified asset allocation strategies to build a portfolio that includes defensive assets like cash and bonds alongside growth-oriented equity assets [5]. - Encouragement of a long-term investment perspective to smooth out short-term volatility and achieve steady capital appreciation over time [5].

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the current concerns of investors regarding macro interest rates, credit, and convertible bonds, and provides insights on these topics [2][12]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Bond interest rates are positively correlated with domestic demand and negatively correlated with external demand, indicating that despite unexpected tariff changes, the core contradiction in the bond market remains focused on domestic demand [3][14]. - The liquidity environment is improving gradually, with funding rates decreasing from around 1.8% to a range of 1.4%-1.6%, suggesting that negative carry is becoming a thing of the past [4][19]. - The long-end interest rates, particularly the 10-year government bond, require a decline in deposit rates to facilitate further downward movement [20][21]. Group 2: Macro-Prudential Support - The People's Bank of China is focusing on macro-prudential measures to support the healthy development of the bond market, which includes monitoring risks and enhancing regulatory coordination [5][24]. - The current credit environment shows weak growth in broad credit, with local government bonds expanding, indicating that investors may face more interest rate risks [25]. Group 3: Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market is expected to see a shift towards stronger credit performance and weaker interest rates, driven by a decrease in deposit rates and increased allocation towards credit bonds by wealth management products [7][28]. - The performance of credit strategies is likely to favor short to medium-term bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 2-3 years, with a ranking of value from city investment bonds to industry bonds [8][30]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The recent surge in sci-tech bonds presents unique investment opportunities, especially with new issuers and private sector participation, although investors should remain cautious of potential credit risks [10][32]. - The recommendation for a near-term convertible bond strategy is based on the increasing market focus on bonds with shorter maturities, particularly those with a strong repayment capability [11][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall economic data in April declined to some extent compared to March but remained resilient under the background of the tariff war. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. Internal policy support is the main line for the stock index in 2025. The decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies in the first quarter has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded, but the ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable development of the real economy, and will steadily increase the stock market valuation. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts closed down. The central bank conducted a 448 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 9.1 billion yuan. The capital interest rate declined slightly. The negative impact of the better - than - expected tariff negotiation on the bond market has basically ended. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - like market and will fluctuate horizontally. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The overall economic data in April declined compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales were supported by policies, and social credit demand was weak. The joint statement between China and the United States was positive, and multiple policies were introduced. The revenue decline of A - share listed companies narrowed, and the net profit rebounded. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate declined. The negative impact on the bond market from tariff negotiations ended, and the bond market will fluctuate horizontally in the short term [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 27, 2025, compared with May 26, 2025, IH decreased by 15.8 points (-0.59%), IF remained unchanged, IC decreased by 16.6 points (-0.30%), and IM decreased by 10.0 points (-0.17%) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 14.1 points (-0.52%), the CSI 300 decreased by 20.7 points (-0.54%), the CSI 500 decreased by 17.3 points (-0.31%), and the CSI 1000 decreased by 20.3 points (-0.34%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS decreased by 0.022 points (-0.02%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (-0.03%), T decreased by 0.12 points (-0.11%), and TL decreased by 0.3 points (-0.25%) [3] Market News - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. Among them, the profit of state - owned holding enterprises was 702.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the profit of joint - stock enterprises was 1.55964 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; the profit of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and the profit of private enterprises was 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Includes the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their corresponding basis trends [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Includes the intermediate price charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and their 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [22][23][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's macroeconomic policy will become more proactive, with room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates [1] Group 2 - The event discussed is the opening of the CITIC Securities 2025 Capital Market Forum in Shanghai [1] - The chief economist and FICC chief analyst of CITIC Securities, Mingming, provided insights on the macroeconomic policy direction [1]